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2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:27 pm
by Mike G
Preview of rosters, playoff numbers:
Code: Select all
Cavs Min PER e480 eWins WS WS/48 BPM VORP
LeBron 569 24.8 2.91 3.42 2.15 .181 9.7 1.7
Shumpert 480 12.9 .64 .64 1.52 .152 3.9 .7
Thompson 480 15.9 .85 .84 1.90 .190 2.3 .5
Irving 421 20.3 1.61 1.40 1.90 .217 4.2 .7
Mozgov 360 16.2 1.13 .84 1.13 .151 .7 .2
Smith 358 17.0 1.16 .86 1.43 .192 5.0 .6
Dellav'a 306 8.9 .36 .23 .47 .074 -1.9 .0
Jones 198 10.8 .30 .12 .62 .150 1.2 .2
Love 107 19.9 1.89 .42 .49 .220 3.8 .2
Miller 37 9.8 .25 .02 .12 .157 -3.3 .0
Perkins 30 3.7 -.13 -.01 -.05 -.084 -12.5 -.1
Marion 24 6.0 -.18 -.01 .01 .011 -2.2 .0
Harris 12 12.0 1.33 .03 .02 .067 -6.2 .0
Cavs 3380 16.6 1.25 8.81 11.70 .166 3.47
GSW Min PER e480 eWins WS WS/48 BPM VORP
Curry 571 26.4 2.60 3.06 3.09 .260 9.7 1.7
Green 562 16.7 1.49 1.73 1.81 .155 5.9 1.1
Thompson 534 15.9 1.26 1.39 1.37 .123 1.6 .5
Barnes 484 12.8 .67 .67 1.16 .115 1.4 .4
Iguodala 412 14.0 .84 .72 1.33 .155 3.2 .5
Bogut 366 14.7 1.16 .88 1.19 .156 5.0 .7
Living'n 254 11.8 .38 .20 .63 .119 -.6 .1
Barbosa 165 12.4 .54 .18 .37 .108 -2.9 .0
Ezeli 134 15.6 .92 .26 .38 .137 -1.5 .0
Lee 68 9.6 .56 .08 .08 .054 -5.7 -.1
Speights 51 14.4 1.48 .16 .06 .054 -5.1 .0
McAdoo 9 20.2 1.33 .02 .02 .102 -6.7 .0
Holiday 9 2.2 -.61 -.01 -.02 -.101 -8.8 .0
Rush 7 -4.6 .36 .01 -.03 -.217 -28.5 .0
GSW 3625 16.3 1.24 9.34 11.44 .151 3.23
Re: 2015 NBA Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:14 am
by Crow
So by playoff to date Cavs lead on 6 of 7 metrics? What if you adjust all by SOS (stealing a mention of this from you in other thread)?
Re: 2015 NBA Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:02 am
by Mike G
Since the Warriors avoided the other western powerhouses (LAC and SAS), their playoff SOS has not been a lot harder than the Cavs': avg SRS 2.86 vs 2.30 for Cle.
Probably makes it about a tossup; except for home court to GS.
Re: 2015 NBA Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:06 am
by Mike G
Warriors 1, Cavs 0
gm 1: 108 - 100
Pyth wins .74 - .26, eWins .62 - .38
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e530
.21 LeBron James Cle 46 .512 32.6 6.5 4.3 1.6 .0 3.4 .0 2.39
.17 Stephen Curry GSW 43 .591 24.4 3.5 8.1 .8 1.7 3.4 .0 2.09
.16 Kyrie Irving Cle 43 .511 17.5 6.1 4.7 4.2 3.4 .9 1.6 1.99
.11 Klay Thompson GSW 38 .583 20.2 6.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.58
.08 Timofey Mozgov Cle 33 .571 17.5 8.1 1.9 1.1 .0 1.2 1.0 1.31
.08 Andre Iguodala GSW 32 .833 21.6 3.5 2.5 2.2 .0 1.1 1.1 1.34
.05 Andrew Bogut GSW 28 .400 4.3 9.6 4.8 2.6 1.3 1.3 2.7 .95
.05 Festus Ezeli GSW 12 .833 20.7 15.0 3.2 2.9 .0 2.9 .0 2.00
.04 Draymond Green GSW 39 .400 9.0 5.9 3.6 4.7 1.9 .9 .0 .60
.04 Marreese Speights GSW 9 .500 30.6 12.0 4.6 7.6 .0 3.8 .0 2.57
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e530
.04 Shaun Livingston GSW 16 .333 6.3 11.3 8.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.38
.03 Harrison Barnes GSW 39 .611 9.9 5.9 1.1 1.9 .9 .0 .0 .45
.01 Matt Dellavedova Cle 9 .0 3.9 10.2 3.8 .0 .0 .0 .30
-.00 Leandro Barbosa GSW 9 .250 4.9 12.0 4.7 .0 .0 7.6 .0 -.15
-.00 Tristan Thompson Cle 47 .250 .8 12.0 .7 2.3 .8 1.7 .7 -.05
-.01 Iman Shumpert Cle 35 .500 5.4 2.2 .0 2.1 4.2 2.3 1.0 -.19
-.02 J.R. Smith Cle 35 .346 5.6 4.2 .0 2.0 .0 .0 .0 -.37
-.03 James Jones Cle 17 .000 .0 2.1 1.8 8.1 2.0 2.2 .0 -1.02
shooting: GS .545 - .483 Cle
rebounds/48: GS 43.5 - 40.8 Cle
turnovers: 12-12
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:39 am
by Mike G
Warriors 1, Cavs 1
avg score : GS 100.5 - 97.5 Cle
Pyth wins 1.20 - .80, eWins 1.10 - .90
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e530
.59 LeBron James Cle 48 .483 29.9 9.2 6.7 1.9 .4 3.2 .4 3.26
.34 Klay Thompson GSW 42 .579 24.0 4.7 1.5 2.2 1.3 .4 1.3 2.14
.24 Stephen Curry GSW 43 .459 18.6 4.2 7.2 2.1 .9 4.4 .4 1.48
.23 Timofey Mozgov Cle 31 .589 21.7 10.9 1.1 1.2 .0 2.1 .6 1.93
.21 Kyrie Irving Cle 22 .511 18.9 6.0 5.4 4.2 3.4 1.0 1.7 2.54
.14 Draymond Green GSW 41 .440 8.9 7.0 2.7 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.3 .89
.12 Andre Iguodala GSW 34 .759 15.3 4.6 4.2 3.6 .5 2.7 .5 .95
.07 Andrew Bogut GSW 27 .375 3.3 11.4 3.3 4.1 .7 2.1 2.7 .72
.05 Harrison Barnes GSW 40 .564 9.4 5.4 .6 3.2 .9 .0 .0 .30
.04 Festus Ezeli GSW 9 .700 17.0 9.4 2.2 7.6 .0 2.0 .0 1.19
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e530
.04 Shaun Livingston GSW 15 .389 7.2 7.1 5.8 .0 1.2 2.5 .0 .73
.03 Marreese Speights GSW 7 .364 15.8 7.2 3.0 4.9 2.4 2.5 .0 1.32
.03 Leandro Barbosa GSW 8 .583 18.3 9.0 2.7 2.3 .0 4.7 .0 1.07
.01 Tristan Thompson Cle 44 .182 .7 12.3 .4 3.3 .8 1.0 .8 .05
-.01 Iman Shumpert Cle 36 .361 4.8 2.6 .6 1.5 3.6 1.2 1.0 -.05
-.01 James Jones Cle 20 .500 6.6 1.8 1.8 7.1 2.7 1.1 .0 -.20
-.05 J.R. Smith Cle 37 .407 8.0 4.0 .0 3.9 .5 1.2 .0 -.36
-.05 Matt Dellavedova Cle 26 .409 5.5 4.3 2.9 2.8 2.1 5.0 .0 -.51
shooting: GS .517 - .459 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.3 - 42.1 GS
turnovers: Cle 14.5 - GS 15.5
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 1:19 pm
by DSMok1
Single Game Box Plus/Minus assessments:
Sorry about the bad links the first time.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:00 pm
by Mike G
It would be nice to see boxscore corroboration that these guys are contributing. They haven't been statistically productive though. In 2 games, their rates at b-r.com have dropped:
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Cleveland - thru conf. finals .. after 2 G Finals
Cavs PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
T Thompson 15.9 .190 2.3 14.5 .168 1.7
Shumpert 12.9 .152 3.9 12.3 .136 3.5
Dellavedova 8.9 .074 -1.9 8.1 .054 -2.0
Each player has lost 5-10% of his WS/48 in the last 15-18% of his playoff minutes.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:51 am
by Mike G
Regarding the colorful charts above:
- In an 8 point loss, the Cavs total 5 fewer 'points generated' than GS
- In a 2 point win, they had 5 more than GS.
Is the game 2 win equally impressive because of HCA?
The Cavs now have HCA for the series. Yet b-r.com still gives them just 15% chance to win it.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:57 am
by Mike G
The Warriors have 4 guys going over 40 mpg in the first 2 games. Even with the overtimes, that means some key reserves have seen fewer than their usual minutes.
Their advantage in the series is their depth. So why shouldn't they be subbing more freely?
I'm predicting more minutes from Barbosa, Livingston, Speights, and Ezeli. Maybe David Lee will appear! Just to make the Cavs work harder.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:21 pm
by Mike G
Cavs 2, Warriors 1
avg score: GSW 97.3 - 97.0 Cle
Pyth wins 1.53 - 1.47, eWins 1.51 - 1.49
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e513
.98 LeBron James Cle 47 .484 32.2 9.3 7.2 1.5 1.3 3.4 .8 3.56
.42 Stephen Curry GSW 43 .522 22.4 4.5 5.9 2.0 1.4 4.6 .3 1.67
.36 Klay Thompson GSW 41 .543 20.3 4.8 1.3 2.7 .9 .6 1.2 1.51
.23 Timofey Mozgov Cle 31 .574 17.3 8.9 1.2 1.9 .4 3.2 1.9 1.27
.22 Andre Iguodala GSW 35 .673 15.5 4.7 4.3 2.7 .3 1.7 .7 1.09
.21 Kyrie Irving Cle 14 .511 20.0 6.0 5.8 4.3 3.4 1.0 1.7 2.55
.18 Draymond Green GSW 37 .397 8.4 7.5 2.9 4.6 2.6 2.0 1.3 .83
.11 Andrew Bogut GSW 24 .455 4.9 11.7 2.8 4.1 .5 1.6 2.5 .82
.11 David Lee GSW 4 .846 40.7 9.8 4.9 12.2 2.4 .0 .0 4.33
.06 Festus Ezeli GSW 12 .500 11.5 10.8 1.9 4.5 .0 2.8 1.8 .90
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e513
.05 Matt Dellavedova Cle 30 .475 11.7 4.4 3.5 2.8 1.2 3.8 .0 .29
.05 Tristan Thompson Cle 44 .368 3.1 11.8 .6 2.5 .6 1.0 .6 .19
.04 Shaun Livingston GSW 14 .423 7.9 6.0 4.9 2.2 .7 2.3 .0 .42
.03 Leandro Barbosa GSW 9 .423 12.0 5.9 1.3 2.4 1.2 2.4 1.2 .56
.03 Marreese Speights GSW 5 .364 14.7 6.5 2.4 4.3 2.1 2.2 .0 1.00
.01 James Jones Cle 17 .714 12.0 1.9 1.4 7.1 1.9 1.5 .0 .13
-.00 J.R. Smith Cle 35 .444 9.0 4.0 .4 3.0 .3 .8 .7 -.02
-.02 Mike Miller Cle 4 .000 .0 2.7 .0 2.7 2.7 .0 .0 -.73
-.04 Iman Shumpert Cle 34 .381 4.6 2.8 .4 2.5 3.5 1.7 .7 -.21
-.04 Harrison Barnes GSW 33 .400 6.4 5.5 .4 3.3 .7 1.1 .0 -.23
shooting: GS .503 - .483 Cle
rebounds: Cle 44.6 - 43.3 GS
turnovers: 15.0-15.0
With a 13-minute outing, D Lee's playoff rates have gone from woeful to respectable:
Code: Select all
Min PER WS/48 BPM
68 9.6 .054 -5.7
81 15.5 .160 -0.9
After 2 games, LeBron had eWins equal to Curry + K Thompson. Now you can throw in Iguodala (almost).
He's finally pulling away as the WS leader of his own team:
Code: Select all
. Cle PER WS/48 BPM
LeBron 25.8 .189 10.6
Thompson 14.4 .167 1.8
Smith 14.6 .154 3.1
Jones 10.7 .149 1.4
Mozgov 16.4 .146 0.7
Shumpert 11.8 .128 3.5
Delly 8.8 .060 -1.8
Irving 20.9 .218 4.9
Love 20.0 .218 3.6
In 3 games, he's gotten 9 minutes of rest, then 4 1/2, and last night just 2.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:07 pm
by DSMok1
Game 3 BPM:
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:42 pm
by Mike G
Regarding the colorful charts above:
- In an 8 point loss, the Cavs total 5 fewer 'points generated' than GS
- In a 2 point win, they had 5 more than GS.
- In a 5 pt win at home, Cavs w 2 more PG
Are these adjusted for HCA ?
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:00 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote:Regarding the colorful charts above:
- In an 8 point loss, the Cavs total 5 fewer 'points generated' than GS
- In a 2 point win, they had 5 more than GS.
- In a 5 pt win at home, Cavs w 2 more PG
Are these adjusted for HCA ?
Yes, they are. I used HCA of 3.25 points/100 poss. They are also adjusted for SoS based on who actually played in the game (based on regular season BPM ratings)--that's why everything is positive for most offense/defense units. That doesn't effect the relative values of the players in the game vs. each other, but does effect the numbers I show, which should be valid vs. an average NBA player like BPM always is.
The expected team ratings based on lineup last night and regular season BPM: GSW +13.7 / +8.6 O / +5.1 D. CLE +5.5 / +5.5 O / +0.0 D.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:48 pm
by Mike G
Warriors 2, Cavs 2
avg score: GS 98.8 - 93.3 Cle
Pyth wins 2.73 - 1.27, eWins 2.36 - 1.64
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e505
1.05 LeBron James Cle 46 .464 27.0 9.5 6.1 2.2 1.0 2.9 .6 2.90
.57 Stephen Curry GSW 43 .540 22.8 3.7 6.2 1.7 1.3 4.3 .2 1.70
.44 Timofey Mozgov Cle 32 .598 22.4 9.4 1.0 2.3 .6 3.3 1.3 1.73
.38 Andre Iguodala GSW 36 .678 18.4 5.3 3.3 3.0 .5 1.5 .5 1.33
.37 Draymond Green GSW 36 .451 11.3 7.3 4.1 4.8 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.29
.37 Klay Thompson GSW 41 .538 17.1 3.9 1.6 2.0 .7 .5 1.1 1.14
.21 David Lee GSW 7 .606 31.0 10.8 6.8 7.4 1.2 .0 .0 3.78
.20 Kyrie Irving Cle 11 .511 19.3 5.9 4.8 4.2 3.4 1.0 1.6 2.34
.14 Shaun Livingston GSW 17 .474 9.7 8.1 5.9 3.1 1.0 2.1 .5 1.09
.12 Tristan Thompson Cle 43 .448 4.6 11.7 .4 2.1 .4 .7 .6 .34
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e505
.11 Andrew Bogut GSW 19 .455 4.8 11.5 3.4 5.4 .5 2.0 2.5 .77
.08 Festus Ezeli GSW 9 .500 12.7 11.5 2.2 4.9 .0 3.0 2.0 1.12
.05 Harrison Barnes GSW 33 .468 8.6 6.1 .6 3.0 .5 .8 .6 .18
.04 Marreese Speights GSW 4 .321 15.0 10.4 2.5 6.4 2.1 2.2 .0 1.38
.04 Leandro Barbosa GSW 8 .406 12.1 5.1 2.4 3.1 1.0 2.1 1.1 .62
.01 Matt Dellavedova Cle 31 .429 10.5 3.5 3.3 2.6 1.2 3.7 .0 .06
-.02 Mike Miller Cle 4 .000 .0 2.4 .0 2.4 2.4 .0 .0 -.80
-.03 James Jones Cle 17 .556 7.9 3.1 1.0 6.2 1.6 1.8 .5 -.24
-.06 J.R. Smith Cle 33 .375 7.0 3.8 .8 3.5 .3 .6 .5 -.23
-.07 Iman Shumpert Cle 36 .350 3.8 3.8 .5 2.3 2.6 1.2 .7 -.25
shooting: GS .518 - .462 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.6 - 43.5 GS
turnovers: GS 13.0 - 13.5 Cle
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2015 2:01 pm
by DSMok1
Single Game Box Plus/Minus
Amazing across-the-board performance from the Warriors, and a miserable performance from the Cleveland backcourt.