APBRmetrics

Posted: **Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:30 pm**

preview of previous rounds' summary stats:

LA Lakers      mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Alex Caruso     24    8.7   .068   -1.7    .32
Alex Caruso     24   13.1   .130    1.5    .39
Alex Caruso     24    8.5   .046   -1.3    .23

Anthony Davis   33   37.2   .402   15.2   3.40
Anthony Davis   37   26.9   .235    5.1   2.58
Anthony Davis   38   28.0   .262    7.0   2.23

Danny Green     27    8.6   .068   -0.9    .42
Danny Green     26   12.4   .141    0.7    .51
Danny Green     24    8.9   .040   -2.0    .41

Dion Waiters (1) 6    7.2   .053   -4.9   -.12

LA Lakers      mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Dwight Howard   19   17.2   .187   -3.2    .98
Dwight Howard    3    9.0   .036   -9.4    .19
Dwight Howard   20   18.7   .198    0.7   1.18

J.R. Smith  (1) 11   -7.0  -.192  -14.7   -.80

Jared Dudley (1) 3    1.6  -.038   -3.1   -.28

JaVale McGee    13   26.5   .298    5.9   2.02
JaVale McGee     6    9.0   .052   -4.1    .14
JaVale McGee     8     .1  -.091  -11.1   -.14

LA Lakers      mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Kentavious CP   26   10.6   .093   -0.8    .54
Kentavious CP   28    6.9   .060   -3.3   -.13
Kentavious CP   30   12.9   .116    1.9    .29

Kyle Kuzma      24    9.1   .074   -4.0    .54
Kyle Kuzma      25   15.8   .153    0.4    .64
Kyle Kuzma      22    9.0   .008   -4.4    .25

LeBron James    33   32.5   .321   12.7   3.34
LeBron James    36   28.7   .236    8.5   3.04
LeBron James    37   27.9   .222    8.2   2.79

LA Lakers      mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Markieff Morris 18    6.3   .101   -3.5    .14
Markieff Morris 20   13.2   .129    0.4    .57
Markieff Morris 14    7.3   .048   -1.0    .15

Quinn Cook  (1)  4   18.5   .209    3.3    .80

Rajon Rondo (2) 27   19.8   .195    6.7   1.39
Rajon Rondo (3) 21   17.1   .134    3.8   1.30

listed are numbers for rounds 1, 2, 3 (unless otherwise noted)

Code: Select all

Miami Heat     mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Andre Iguodala  27   11.8   .170    2.6    .13
Andre Iguodala  16    8.3   .056   -0.2    .18
Andre Iguodala  17   10.6   .062    2.2    .06

Bam Adebayo     34   18.4   .160    2.0   1.92
Bam Adebayo     36   22.6   .253    5.5   2.04
Bam Adebayo     39   24.6   .220    7.1   2.06

Derrick Jones   11   13.5   .180    3.8    .35
Derrick Jones    3   41.5   .477   27.5   1.71
Derrick Jones    5    5.7   .044   -3.3   -.37

Miami Heat     mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Duncan Robinson 25   14.0   .163    0.7    .89
Duncan Robinson 27    8.1   .055   -1.4    .15
Duncan Robinson 29   14.2   .127    3.1    .56

Goran Dragić    34   18.9   .143    1.9   1.82
Goran Dragić    35   17.1   .131    1.4   1.52
Goran Dragić    35   14.4   .038   -0.9   1.08

Jae Crowder     26   14.6   .176    1.6   1.17
Jae Crowder     34   15.1   .152    4.7   1.02
Jae Crowder     34   10.9   .053    0.2    .63

Miami Heat     mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Jimmy Butler    34   20.5   .178    2.6   1.85
Jimmy Butler    37   25.5   .265    6.8   2.20
Jimmy Butler    38   17.9   .116    1.7   1.27

Kelly Olynyk    14   17.3   .146    2.7   1.52
Kelly Olynyk    18   22.0   .199    6.7   2.02
Kelly Olynyk     7    6.0  -.020   -7.5    .02

Kendrick Nunn    4   19.3   .245    6.0   1.32
Kendrick Nunn    5    1.4  -.123   -7.9   -.28
Kendrick Nunn    4   -6.4  -.204  -15.9   -.50

Solomon Hill (3) 3    6.6   .129    0.3   -.31

Tyler Herro     32   15.9   .175    0.9   1.05
Tyler Herro     32   10.9   .055    0.2    .75
Tyler Herro     35   18.1   .110    3.9   1.24

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
Bam keeps getting stronger. He and AD are on a collision course.

Posted: **Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:00 pm**

It's interesting. Los Angeles only has 2 players that are consistently very good, plus playoff Rondo. No one else even above average. Miami has Bam, and then several players that have been pretty good (plus Jimmy to close games).

I've heard consistently that players' weaknesses are unveiled in the playoffs and only the well-rounded players survive. I think we've seen that.

Posted: **Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:45 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-9-30-20/

Posted: **Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:20 pm**

Here is a Tableau dashboard looking at BPM performances through the playoffs by these two teams:

https://public.tableau.com/views/2020Fi ... VizHome=no

Posted: **Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:35 am**

Lakers 1 , Heat 0
116 - 98
Pythagorean wins .90 - .10 , eWins .70 - .30

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.24   Anthony Davis  LAL   39  .654   38.1   8.1   4.7    .0    .9  2.8   2.98
.21   LeBron James   LAL   37  .625   29.6  12.4   8.9   1.0   2.0   .0   2.76
.11   Jimmy Butler   Mia   34  .742   27.6   2.2   3.8   2.2   2.2   .0   1.57
.09   Kendrick Nunn  Mia   20  .818   31.4   8.2   2.3    .0    .0   .0   2.10
.06   Danny Green    LAL   30  .611   14.7   4.7   1.2   2.4   2.4  3.7    .97

.05   Alex Caruso    LAL   22  .714   18.6   5.7   3.0   1.5   1.5   .0   1.05
.04   Jae Crowder    Mia   25  .750   16.9   2.9    .0    .0    .0  2.9    .76
.04  K Caldwell-Pope LAL   30  .520   15.5   2.3    .0   2.4   1.2  1.2    .61
.03  Andre Iguodala  Mia   26  .500    8.0   6.5   5.5    .0   1.3  1.3    .60
.03   Dwight Howard  LAL   15  1.00    6.4  18.4   4.8    .0   2.4   .0    .98

eWin   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Kelly Olynyk   Mia   18  .333    5.1   9.0   5.1    .0   1.8  3.6    .73
.03   Goran Dragić   Mia   15  .375   11.2   2.4   5.1   4.8   2.4   .0    .80
.02  Markieff Morris LAL   17  .667   18.3   5.4   1.9    .0   3.8   .0    .51
.02   Rajon Rondo    LAL   25  .438    8.9   3.8   5.3    .0   1.3   .0    .35
.02   Kyle Kuzma     LAL   22  .214    2.8  11.5   3.0   1.5   1.5   .0    .36

.02   Tyler Herro    Mia   30  .378   11.8   4.6   2.4    .0   2.3   .0    .24
.01   Bam Adebayo    Mia   22  .364    8.8   6.7    .0    .0    .0   .0    .15
-.01  Solomon Hill   Mia   18  .333    4.3   5.4    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.25
-.03 Duncan Robinson Mia   27  .000     .0   5.4    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.54

shooting: LA .595 - .510 Mia
rebounds: LA 54 - 36 Mia
turnovers: Mia 8 - 12 LA

Posted: **Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:45 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-10-1-20/

Posted: **Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:49 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-10-2-20/

Posted: **Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:54 am**

Game 1 PER, WS/48, and BPM. Derived by subtracting previously recorded stats from current stats at b-r.com

Code: Select all

. LAL          Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Anthony Davis   39   36.3   .443   14.7   2.98
LeBron James    37   29.6   .334    9.7   2.76
K Caldwell-Pope 30   11.7   .120   -0.7    .61
Danny Green     30   14.2   .126    6.3    .97
Rajon Rondo     25    9.1   .083   -5.2    .35
Alex Caruso     22   17.1   .255    3.0   1.05
Kyle Kuzma      22    1.1  -.022   -7.7    .36
Markieff Morris 17    7.7   .033   -2.9    .51
Dwight Howard   15   11.3   .241    1.2    .98
...
Lakers totals  240   18.1   .211   3.94   1.40
               
. Mia          Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jimmy Butler    34   29.7   .198   12.2   1.57
Tyler Herro     30    2.9  -.279   -8.7    .24
Duncan Robinson 27   -4.0  -.146  -13.5   -.54
Andre Iguodala  26   14.1   .088    4.1    .60
Jae Crowder     25   17.2   .075    6.1    .76
Bam Adebayo     22    6.7  -.149  -10.4    .15
Kendrick Nunn   20   39.3   .417   17.6   2.10
Kelly Olynyk    18   10.1   .016    0.9    .73
Solomon Hill    18    -.8  -.093  -12.1   -.25
Goran Dragić    15   12.9  -.259    4.2    .80
Derrick Jones    7     0   -.227  -14.0   -.49
Heat totals    240   12.7  -.013  -0.27    .59

Posted: **Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:05 am**

Lakers 2 , Heat 0
avg score 120 - 106
Pyth wins 1.68 - .32 , eWins 1.34 - .66

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.48   LeBron James    LA   38  .611   28.9  11.3   7.3   1.0   1.0   .5   3.00
.46   Anthony Davis   LA   39  .710   33.6  11.5   2.4    .5   1.9  1.4   2.81
.26   Jimmy Butler   Mia   39  .623   21.3   4.7   6.5   1.4   2.5   .0   1.60
.13   Rajon Rondo     LA   26  .605   15.8   4.8   7.6    .0   1.3   .0   1.23
.12   Kendrick Nunn  Mia   25  .738   20.2   6.1   2.6    .0   1.4   .7   1.21

.11   Kelly Olynyk   Mia   28  .571   14.7   8.6   2.8    .0   1.9  1.2    .96
.09   Jae Crowder    Mia   27  .857   14.6   6.2   1.1    .0    .0  1.4    .84
.07  K Caldwell-Pope  LA   31  .444   11.0   3.8   2.0   1.8    .6   .6    .54
.06   Dwight Howard   LA   16  .727    8.2  11.9   2.8    .0   1.1  2.2    .85
.05   Danny Green     LA   26  .412    7.4   4.5   1.8   2.8   1.4  2.1    .49

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04  Markieff Morris  LA   17  .636   13.3   8.1   2.4    .0   1.9   .0    .59
.04   Tyler Herro    Mia   37  .463   11.4   5.4   2.3    .0   2.1   .0    .26
.04   Alex Caruso     LA   23  .667   12.2   4.6   2.4   1.5   2.2   .0    .38
.03  Andre Iguodala  Mia   26  .700    8.4   4.6   3.5    .0    .7   .7    .31
.03   Goran Dragić   Mia    8  .375   10.5   2.4   5.5   4.8   2.5   .0    .86

.02   Kyle Kuzma      LA   22  .424    8.6   7.9   1.9    .7   3.0   .0    .17
.00   Bam Adebayo    Mia   11  .364    7.8   6.6    .0    .0    .0   .0    .05
-.02  Solomon Hill   Mia    9  .333    3.5   4.9    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.44
-.03 Duncan Robinson Mia   25  .391    3.9   3.0   2.3    .7    .0   .0   -.25

shooting: LA .591 - .576 Mia
rebounds: LA 49.0 - 36.5 Mia
turnovers: Mia 9.0 - 10.5 LA

Posted: **Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:41 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-10-3-20/

Posted: **Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:30 pm**

Two-game advance stats from b-r.com, plus eWins/480 min.

Code: Select all

. LAL          Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Anthony Davis   78   35.9   .358   10.4   2.81
LeBron James    76   32.0   .321   12.1   3.00
K Caldwell-Pope 62   10.2   .067   -2.3    .54
Danny Green     52    9.2   .033    1.0    .49
Rajon Rondo     51   19.2   .225    3.7   1.23
Alex Caruso     45   11.9   .126   -0.5    .38
Kyle Kuzma      44    5.1  -.046   -7.1    .17
Markieff Morris 33   11.1   .089   -0.4    .59
Dwight Howard   32   13.5   .166    0.5    .85
Quinn Cook       5   38.7   .503   22.2   3.17
J.R. Smith       4  -13.8  -.004  -20.0  -1.45
Lakers totals  480   18.8   .175   3.25   1.34
               
. Mia          Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jimmy Butler    78   25.9   .173    6.8   1.60
Tyler Herro     73    6.6  -.118   -7.5    .26
Kelly Olynyk    55   15.5   .078   -1.3    .96
Jae Crowder     53   18.1   .115    6.1    .84
Andre Iguodala  51   14.4   .100    2.4    .31
Duncan Robinson 49    2.8  -.065   -7.4   -.25
Kendrick Nunn   49   24.9   .246    5.6   1.21
Bam Adebayo     22    4.1  -.332  -10.4    .05
Solomon Hill    18    -.8  -.102  -12.1   -.44
Goran Dragić    15    9.4  -.544    4.2    .86
Meyers Leonard   9   30.8   .457   11.5   1.48
Derrick Jones    8    -.5  -.275  -11.8   -.77
Heat totals    480   14.4   .029  -0.22    .66

Posted: **Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:06 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-10-4-20/

Posted: **Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:13 am**

Lakers 2 , Heat 1
avg score 114.7 - 109.0
pyth wins 1.99 - 1.01 , eWins 1.74 - 1.26

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.63   LeBron James    LA   38  .610   27.4  11.0   7.0    .6   3.3  1.0   2.61
.61   Jimmy Butler   Mia   41  .672   27.2   6.5   7.4   1.5   3.2   .6   2.37
.52   Anthony Davis   LA   37  .717   29.3   9.9   2.5   1.0   3.1  1.0   2.26
.21   Kelly Olynyk   Mia   29  .634   16.4   8.6   2.2    .8   1.3   .8   1.20
.15   Rajon Rondo     LA   26  .500   10.5   6.8   6.7    .8   1.7   .0    .94

.13  Markieff Morris  LA   19  .647   17.9   8.3   2.3    .0   1.7   .0   1.07
.13   Jae Crowder    Mia   29  .692   12.9   7.4   1.0    .0    .5   .8    .70
.10   Kendrick Nunn  Mia   23  .729   17.5   4.9   2.7    .0   3.1   .5    .68
.09   Dwight Howard   LA   16  .800   10.4  10.6   2.5    .8   1.6  1.5    .92
.08   Tyler Herro    Mia   36  .453   12.3   4.8   2.1    .3   1.8   .0    .37

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Kyle Kuzma      LA   22  .532   14.4   6.8   1.2    .5   2.5   .0    .52
.06  Meyers Leonard  Mia    7  1.00   24.4   1.7   1.3   1.6    .0   .0   1.33
.06  K Caldwell-Pope  LA   30  .426    8.6   3.9   1.7   1.6    .4   .4    .30
.05   Alex Caruso     LA   24  .632   10.9   3.5   2.3   1.4   1.4   .0    .32
.03   Danny Green     LA   23  .333    5.7   5.1   1.8   2.1   1.6  1.6    .22

.03  Duncan Robinson Mia   29  .449    6.4   3.9   2.3   1.3    .0   .4    .17
.03   Goran Dragić   Mia    5  .375   11.0   2.5   5.7   4.8   2.6   .0    .94
.02  Andre Iguodala  Mia   23  .667    7.5   4.0   3.8    .0   1.0   .5    .17
.01   Bam Adebayo    Mia    7  .364    8.4   6.8    .0    .0    .0   .0    .13
-.01  Solomon Hill   Mia    7  .500    6.6   4.1    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.26

shooting: Mia .593 - .580 LA
rebounds: LA 47.0 - 36.7 Mia
turnovers: Mia 10.3 - 13.7 LA

Posted: **Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:34 pm**

Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis: http://basketballintelligence.net/2020/ ... s-10-5-20/

Posted: **Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:26 pm**

3-game 'advanced' summary stats alongside e480

Code: Select all

. Lakers        Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
LeBron James    115   27.4   .213    8.6   2.61
Anthony Davis   111   29.2   .260    7.6   2.26
K Caldwell-Pope  91    7.4   .039   -3.5    .30
Rajon Rondo      79   14.6   .128    1.0    .94
Alex Caruso      71   13.1   .136    0.7    .32
Danny Green      69    4.1  -.055   -4.7    .22
Kyle Kuzma       67   10.8   .031   -3.2    .52
Markieff Morris  58   16.4   .131    4.1   1.07
Dwight Howard    47   14.6   .154    1.5    .92
J.R. Smith       10    5.3   .072   -2.6   -.13
LAL totals      720   16.7   .128   2.12   1.16
               
. Heat          Min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jimmy Butler    123   32.0   .279   10.7   2.37
Tyler Herro     109    6.8  -.086   -7.0    .37
Duncan Robinson  88    7.0   .022   -3.5    .17
Jae Crowder      87   13.8   .083    1.5    .70
Kelly Olynyk     86   18.4   .159    2.2   1.20
Kendrick Nunn    69   16.1   .125   -0.3    .68
Andre Iguodala   68   12.0   .095    1.7    .17
Bam Adebayo      22    4.1  -.280  -10.4    .13
Solomon Hill     22    4.7   .010   -7.1   -.26
Meyers Leonard   22   27.6   .379   11.3   1.33
Goran Dragić     15   12.9  -.544    4.2    .94
Derrick Jones     8   - .5  -.252  -13.0   -.77
Mia totals      720   15.3   .077   0.66    .84

PER and WS/48 still think AD has done better than LeBron.
They and BPM all have Jimmy Trouble as mvp thru 3 games.

APBRmetrics

2020 Finals : LA Lakers - Miami Heat

2020 Finals : LA Lakers - Miami Heat

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Re: 2020 Finals : LA Lakers - Miami Heat

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Re: 2020 Finals : LA Lakers - Miami Heat