Search found 131 matches

by Nate
Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48394

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

.... Imagine, player X misses a shot, Stevie Adams or Enes Kanter is standing under the basket, they get the offensive rebound and put it back in. In both cases the team has 2 points, but most boxscore models will say that what Kanter and Adams did was worth more because they get credit for both th...
by Nate
Mon May 13, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: What went wrong for Rockets
Replies: 26
Views: 9562

Re: What went wrong for Rockets

Why can't it be as simple as "the teams are pretty evenly matched and the Rockets were unlucky?"
by Nate
Thu May 09, 2019 4:51 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48394

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

.... Trivia is defined as details, considerations, or pieces of information of little importance or value. Are you saying most or everything in performance metrics is trivia? I'd disagree. What is trivia and what isn't? Who knows? Does RAPM bother with or credit any trivia? I assume you are allegin...
by Nate
Thu May 09, 2019 4:41 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48394

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

I'm not sure it's a great idea, but you could try to do something analogous to Elo ratings for players using minutes played and scoring margin in some kind of Bayesian inference model, then estimate "contribution" as rating * minutes played. So you'd do game-by-game updates, but only using minutes ...
by Nate
Sat Apr 27, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48394

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

I'm not sure it's a great idea, but you could try to do something analogous to Elo ratings for players using minutes played and scoring margin in some kind of Bayesian inference model, then estimate "contribution" as rating * minutes played. So you'd do game-by-game updates, but only using minutes p...
by Nate
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:51 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48394

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

.... The general objective of Box Plus/Minus is to assess how to credit a team's success (as measured by points) to the players who were on the court. .... "Credit" comes from the latin "credere" which means "to believe." And, it really is the case that people can assign credit for wins and losses ...
by Nate
Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus
Replies: 105
Views: 48394

Re: Reconstructing Box Plus/Minus

... I have been preparing for some time now to reconstruct Box Plus/Minus (BPM), with a goal of addressing the major existing issues. ... The "major existing issue" with most of the stats that people put out is that they're trivia: They're created by and for a bunch of people who watch sports (or w...
by Nate
Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency
Replies: 8
Views: 6646

Re: Playoff shot distribution and efficiency

...As a defense I'd take more shots from 10-23 feet because even at modestly improved efficiency they are still below average efficiency possessions used. ...
It certainly fits with the narrative of teams taking defense more seriously during the playoffs.
by Nate
Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138669

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

The start of a contest (or before) is a good time to talk about scoring. At the end of the last one EvanZ was talking about Huber Loss (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huber_loss). Something else to consider is whether a scoring method that controlls for player minutes or some other factors could make...
by Nate
Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: "NBA Statistics Treatise"
Replies: 13
Views: 12736

Re: "NBA Statistics Treatise"

I didn't ask about drastically different game scenarios, nail biter or blowout. In either type of game, how is a last minute bucket more or less valuable than one in the first minute? That's the whole point: First minute shots (which consistently have a small impact on expected wins) are a differen...
by Nate
Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: "NBA Statistics Treatise"
Replies: 13
Views: 12736

Re: "NBA Statistics Treatise"

Explain please how 2 or 3 points made vs missed are more/less valuable, or likely to produce a win, at any point in the game. Suppose your team is up 20 points with 5 seconds to go. Your chance of winning isn't going to change much if you make or miss a shot. This is a situation where 2 or 3 points...
by Nate
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: "NBA Statistics Treatise"
Replies: 13
Views: 12736

Re: "NBA Statistics Treatise"

Voyaging wrote:...
I've been thinking a lot about it and I'm really not sure. It's a really tricky subject, whether those high win % affecting shots really are more valuable.
They are more valuable in terms of wins, but they're not very rich in information about how good the players are.
by Nate
Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: "NBA Statistics Treatise"
Replies: 13
Views: 12736

Re: "NBA Statistics Treatise"

... What do you guys think about the Win % added metric? Seems really interesting, just very limited. I kind of like the "Kitchen Sink" one. ... The part of 'analytics' that people always seem to gloss over is that it's important to know what the question is. Mostly, I think win % added is a trivia...
by Nate
Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: why warriors post touches many times ?
Replies: 3
Views: 4578

Re: why warriors post touches many times ?

Is there a reason to think there's more to it than good teams get the ball into threatening places?
by Nate
Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Spacing Rating
Replies: 18
Views: 17155

Re: Spacing Rating

Good point. When I started thinking about this problem, all I wanted was a way to measure the term "spacing" that so many talking heads like to use. i.e. Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson will kill the Timberwolves offensive spacing. In general the talking heads are primarily interested in telling storie...