APBRmetrics

... I am saying people are so worried about the accounting looking right, they are getting the reality of the values wrong. To be clear, I don't have some kind of fool proof way to account for these things and get the values right. I simply think a LOT of things of value (both positive and negative...

.... Imagine, player X misses a shot, Stevie Adams or Enes Kanter is standing under the basket, they get the offensive rebound and put it back in. In both cases the team has 2 points, but most boxscore models will say that what Kanter and Adams did was worth more because they get credit for both th...

Why can't it be as simple as "the teams are pretty evenly matched and the Rockets were unlucky?"

.... Trivia is defined as details, considerations, or pieces of information of little importance or value. Are you saying most or everything in performance metrics is trivia? I'd disagree. What is trivia and what isn't? Who knows? Does RAPM bother with or credit any trivia? I assume you are allegin...

I'm not sure it's a great idea, but you could try to do something analogous to Elo ratings for players using minutes played and scoring margin in some kind of Bayesian inference model, then estimate "contribution" as rating * minutes played. So you'd do game-by-game updates, but only usin...

I'm not sure it's a great idea, but you could try to do something analogous to Elo ratings for players using minutes played and scoring margin in some kind of Bayesian inference model, then estimate "contribution" as rating * minutes played. So you'd do game-by-game updates, but only using...

.... The general objective of Box Plus/Minus is to assess how to credit a team's success (as measured by points) to the players who were on the court. .... "Credit" comes from the latin "credere" which means "to believe." And, it really is the case that people can assi...

... I have been preparing for some time now to reconstruct Box Plus/Minus (BPM), with a goal of addressing the major existing issues. ... The "major existing issue" with most of the stats that people put out is that they're trivia: They're created by and for a bunch of people who watch sp...

...As a defense I'd take more shots from 10-23 feet because even at modestly improved efficiency they are still below average efficiency possessions used. ...

It certainly fits with the narrative of teams taking defense more seriously during the playoffs.

The start of a contest (or before) is a good time to talk about scoring. At the end of the last one EvanZ was talking about Huber Loss (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huber_loss). Something else to consider is whether a scoring method that controlls for player minutes or some other factors could make...

I didn't ask about drastically different game scenarios, nail biter or blowout. In either type of game, how is a last minute bucket more or less valuable than one in the first minute? That's the whole point: First minute shots (which consistently have a small impact on expected wins) are a differen...

Explain please how 2 or 3 points made vs missed are more/less valuable, or likely to produce a win, at any point in the game. Suppose your team is up 20 points with 5 seconds to go. Your chance of winning isn't going to change much if you make or miss a shot. This is a situation where 2 or 3 points...

Voyaging wrote:...
I've been thinking a lot about it and I'm really not sure. It's a really tricky subject, whether those high win % affecting shots really are more valuable.

They are more valuable in terms of wins, but they're not very rich in information about how good the players are.

... What do you guys think about the Win % added metric? Seems really interesting, just very limited. I kind of like the "Kitchen Sink" one. ... The part of 'analytics' that people always seem to gloss over is that it's important to know what the question is. Mostly, I think win % added i...

Is there a reason to think there's more to it than good teams get the ball into threatening places?