Search found 10 matches

by KAN
Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Ideas for data to extract from PBP
Replies: 29
Views: 21311

Re: Ideas for data to extract from PBP

I'm not sure if it is too late for this; but, it would be nice to have counterpart stats from the play by play data pubically available, similar to what 82games.com does.
by KAN
Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2012-13 Rookies
Replies: 54
Views: 44271

Re: 2012-13 Rookies

I like both of those suggestions from DSMok. Clearly draft pick order is going to be significant in predicting the value of a rookie. I'm not sure how much value an aging curve adds but I'd be interested to see.
by KAN
Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:58 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prediction with BoxScore totals
Replies: 87
Views: 125042

Re: Prediction with BoxScore totals

Mystic, It seems to me that you are drawing too many conclusions from the BOX weights. These weights, from what I can tell, do not say anything about the VALUE of a turnover or a missed field goal, and I do not believe you can extrapolate anything about coaching strategy either. It certainly would n...
by KAN
Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Computing fake RAPM for players of the 90s
Replies: 39
Views: 58065

Re: Computing fake RAPM for players of the 90s

This is so fun!
by KAN
Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:03 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prediction with BoxScore totals
Replies: 87
Views: 125042

Re: Prediction with BoxScore totals

It is exciting to see that BiRAM outperforms RiRAPM. That means progress. Excited to see the results.
by KAN
Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: James Harden trade
Replies: 28
Views: 23043

Re: James Harden trade

I've long wondered how big of a factor this is. As they say there is only one ball.

I guess it would be easy to test. Compare expected Ortg of 5 man unit versus actual based on offensive RAPMs and see how it scales as the expected gets higher and higher.
by KAN
Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:25 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: RAPM WAR and LAR
Replies: 5
Views: 6248

Re: RAPM WAR and LAR

Well I thought about this on my way home and realized it wouldn't work using replacement level times actual wins and losses. I guess it would be OK to just use regular RAPM and calculate win shares and loss shares and compare that to a replacement level of wins/losses given the same amount of minutes.
by KAN
Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:27 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: RAPM WAR and LAR
Replies: 5
Views: 6248

RAPM WAR and LAR

I was thinking if maybe it would be useful to develop an alternative to Wins Produced using RAPM. The way I figured it could be done is pretty easy. First, figure out what the replacement level RAPM is. Subtract from each player's RAPM to create RAPMAR. Next, using the RAPMAR and SD of RAPM calculat...
by KAN
Thu Oct 18, 2012 3:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prediction with BoxScore totals
Replies: 87
Views: 125042

Re: Prediction with BoxScore totals

Another idea I had, which would be a little more laborious to try, is to further break down the assist and block stats into type of assist or block. I know 82games.com has assists broken down into 3-pt assists, jump assists, close assists and dunk assists and the blocks broken down into jump, close ...
by KAN
Thu Oct 18, 2012 2:52 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Prediction with BoxScore totals
Replies: 87
Views: 125042

Re: Prediction with BoxScore totals

I wonder if adding an age/experience factor would improve the rating.