Search found 194 matches

by talkingpractice
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:23 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The debut and popularization of BPM
Replies: 355
Views: 202711

Re: The debut and popularization of BPM

if you separate "fake blocks" ie blocks in which the offense keeps possession, from "real blocks" ie blocks where the defense gets possession, then youll see that the former drop right out of everything. then if you add in sportvu rim protection info, a lot of the value of "good blocks" falls right ...
by talkingpractice
Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Learning about / from the betting sphere
Replies: 59
Views: 27575

Re: Learning about / from the betting sphere

be careful, guys (iow "paper trade" for a long time first).
by talkingpractice
Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Creating power/schedule adjusted rankings
Replies: 12
Views: 10261

Re: Creating power/schedule adjusted rankings

this isn't true in the current NBA, particularly this early in the season. I would have thought so as well, but there's already about a .97 R^2 between B-Ref's adjusted and unadjusted efficiency ratings for instance. Exactly, even in a year that should have the biggest disparity, a SoS adjustment w...
by talkingpractice
Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:40 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Creating power/schedule adjusted rankings
Replies: 12
Views: 10261

Re: Creating power/schedule adjusted rankings

Since there isn't a massive disparity between schedules in the NBA (unlike college), I don't think it would change player results more than just a smallish amount (maybe drop East guys a spot or two as west guys move up a spot or two). this isn't true in the current NBA, particularly this early in ...
by talkingpractice
Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion
Replies: 32
Views: 9589

Re: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion

Here's one issue I have actually: using a metric trained on 2001 to 2014 data to tell you the value of certain stats decades before. Given all the huge changes the league has seen from the way teams are defended, handchecking, outside shooting, the lesser importance of post scoring, etc. I don't th...
by talkingpractice
Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion
Replies: 32
Views: 9589

Re: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion

Mike G wrote:
my two cents, then ill again shush and get out of this continuing conversation.
You may as well not say this any more. :)
:lol:
by talkingpractice
Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:20 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion
Replies: 32
Views: 9589

Re: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion

I'm not sure I see what the problem is with blends or people who nudge their numbers. As long as the predictions are made completely out of sample, why couldn't we run the contest and find out "talkingpractice's intuiton" is the best player ranking system? i agree with this. but then it wouldnt be ...
by talkingpractice
Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:20 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion
Replies: 32
Views: 9589

Re: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion

i sorta agree with some of your comments in the 2nd part here. i think one issue we still disagree on is that if non public or blended metrics are used, its inevitable that people will be doing things to improve predictions. iow, its really simple to take a metric and make a 'blend' metric by simply...
by talkingpractice
Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:49 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion
Replies: 32
Views: 9589

Re: Continuation of one metric prediction test discussion

my two cents, then ill again shush and get out of this continuing conversation. there's only one correct way to do this -> 1, on day x, anyone participating would submit player values for day x+1. 2, these values would then be used to predict the games of day x+1. since the point is to compare metri...
by talkingpractice
Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:12 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014-15 MAX Ratings
Replies: 42
Views: 17107

Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

I disagree with so much of the quasi-mathematics in this thread (and its predecessors) that I don't know where to begin.

So I shall just shush, get out of your thread, and let you enjoy the last words.

Live long and prosper.
by talkingpractice
Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:19 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014-15 MAX Ratings
Replies: 42
Views: 17107

Re: 2014-15 MAX Ratings

after x weeks of reading this stuff, i just cant help myself any longer... it appears that this hilarious/dangerous thread re: comparing metrics has taken over where the last hilarious/dangerous thread on comparing metrics left off -> - theres insample stuff (both obvious and less obvious) all over ...
by talkingpractice
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:15 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Learning about / from the betting sphere
Replies: 59
Views: 27575

Re: Lessons from the betting sphere

BigLeagueInsights wrote: My guess is that the models are regression-based and all of the inputs are relatively simple box score stats.

Injuries to superstars obviously break models, and it's not clear to me how the bookies handle this.
No, and no.
by talkingpractice
Sun Nov 16, 2014 4:08 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The debut and popularization of BPM
Replies: 355
Views: 202711

Re: The popularization of BPM

Aren't the BPM's reported on bbref (other than the 2014 and 2015 values) in-sample values? I think this will greatly skew any attempts to blend BPM with other metrics, compare its performance to other metrics, etc.
by talkingpractice
Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:39 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: The wisdom of expert panels
Replies: 8
Views: 5349

Re: The wisdom of expert panels

to me, these results simply imply that the panel thinks that xRAPM, while being clearly the best metric they could've considered while making their rankings, is not perfect. or simply that with the current information available to us, no metric is yet (near) perfect. dont we all agree that Brow and ...
by talkingpractice
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:20 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286573

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

i really hope that Dr Positivity is wrong about MIN.