Learning about / from the betting sphere

[Crow]

College might be easier. Maybe more average Joe bettors to sharps, especially in March? But I don't watch college regularly, with the exception of one team last season.

Guys like you with a broad interest in college basketball might be rarer than guys who are one conference only or the NBA pack.

[BigLeagueInsights]

First week of fake betting done. Rallied to get to a bit over 40% win. Had a plan to try to just bet the 6 teams I thought I knew a decent amount about (6 top teams for hoped for greater reliability), only when
they were home / away, favored / dog v opponent in such a way that the power rating difference and this season ats performance was favorable, lines fell into certain slots and preferably east vs west, but lines are pretty tight and I didn't find this conceived ideal too often. So I strayed a little or too much. It is tough and I am not finding it fun either, so far. But I'll see if my improvement lasts this coming week or fades.

Getting a feel for spreads takes a long time. Rest days are a big factor. Line movements are important to watch, and give a lot of information.

The Reddit Sportsbook sub is a very useful resource.
http://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comm ... wednesday/

Stick with it for a while Crow! You'll begin to understand patterns after watching lines move for a couple of weeks.

[Crow]

Thanks for the link. If I were more serious I'd study 5-10 times longer with more detail.

Went semi-bold yesterday and went 3-1.

Bet 3/4ths of "bankroll" today. Why not.

[willguo]

I really would guess finding good bets from much larger data sets - like college basketball - would be much easier. It just seems there wouldn't be all that much variance from a personal projected point spread & a Vegas line for any pro league.

In general, the smaller the limit, the easier it is to beat. Unfortunately, that also means it's less lucrative if you can beat it!

[Crow]

I don't know anything direct about wnba betting but heard it might be worthwhile for small stakes.

[Crow]

I kinda knew I was walking into it, bold Wed. was a disaster. But I guess I wanted that fake betting lesson.

[willguo]

Crow - Is there anywhere we can see your plays or methodology? Am quite curious.

[Crow]

I will share my plays in near future. Forgot to do so earlier today. I talked a bit about my planned approach above, but I have strayed quite a bit. Impatience.

At least one another poster here is fake betting. He / they are welcome to discuss their progress too.

[thecorner3john]

Hey guys I'm a new user I think some of you follow me on twitter, but I've also just started fake betting, am currently using a combination of Simple Rating System, HCA, and rest days to try and make plays and am hoping to get more complex as I go. I'll let you know if I feel like I learn anything from the process, but I agree with Crow's premise that learning from guys like talkingpractice and william guo/vegas can help us learn about the NBA.

[Crow]

Good luck!

Yesterday mostly offset day before for me. Up and down.

[talkingpractice]

be careful, guys (iow "paper trade" for a long time first).

[Crow]

Yeah. I am very unlikely to convert for daily play. Futures? Still unlikely.

[Crow]

Progress report

Overall I am 20-24.
In last 7 days I am 16-12 for 57%. Obviously I opened slow.

Site won't give me more than 1 week of data, so here it is:

Date Event Bet Result
12/13/2014 NBA: LAC @ MIL 500 on LAC (-225) to Win 722 Final LAC (106) @ MIL (111)
12/13/2014 NBA: POR @ IND 300 on POR (-107) Give 4.5 to win 580 Final POR (95) @ IND (85)
12/13/2014 NBA: POR @ IND 175 on POR (-190) to Win 267 Final POR (95) @ IND (85)
12/12/2014 NBA: DET @ PHX 500 on PHX (-490) to Win 602 Final DET (105) @ PHX (103)
12/12/2014 NBA: CLE @ NO 50 on NO (-135) to Win 87 Final CLE (114) @ NO (119)
12/12/2014 NBA: LAC @ WSH 50 on LAC (-105) Give 2.5 to win 98 Final LAC (96) @ WSH (104)
12/12/2014 NBA: LAC @ WSH 70 on LAC (-136) to Win 121 Final LAC (96) @ WSH (104)
12/12/2014 NBA: POR @ CHI 25 on CHI (-135) to Win 44 Final POR (106) @ CHI (115)
12/12/2014 NBA: POR @ CHI 40 on CHI (-103) Give 2.5 to win 79 Final POR (106) @ CHI (115)
12/11/2014 NBA: HOU @ SAC 500 on HOU (-106) to Win 972 Final/OT HOU (113) @ SAC (109)
12/11/2014 NBA: CLE @ OKC 500 on OKC (-114) Give 4.5 to win 939 Final CLE (94) @ OKC (103)
12/11/2014 NBA: CLE @ OKC 250 on OKC (-185) to Win 385 Final CLE (94) @ OKC (103)
12/10/2014 NBA: NY @ SA 450 on NY (-105) Get 9.5 to win 879 Final NY (95) @ SA (109)
12/10/2014 NBA: NY @ SA 500 on NY (+534) to Win 3,170 Final NY (95) @ SA (109)
12/10/2014 NBA: NO @ DAL 400 on DAL (-105) Give 6.5 to win 781 Final NO (107) @ DAL (112)
12/10/2014 NBA: BKN @ CHI 500 on CHI (-700) to Win 571 Final BKN (80) @ CHI (105)
12/10/2014 NBA: LAC @ IND 750 on LAC (-103) Give 7.5 to win 1,478 Final LAC (103) @ IND (96)
12/10/2014 NBA: LAC @ IND 200 on LAC (-310) to Win 265 Final LAC (103) @ IND (96)
12/9/2014 NBA: SAC @ LAL 500 on SAC (-110) Get 3.5 to win 955 Final SAC (95) @ LAL (98)
12/9/2014 NBA: MIA @ PHX 45 on PHX (-105) Give 5.5 to win 88 Final MIA (103) @ PHX (97)
12/9/2014 NBA: NY @ NO 125 on NO (-275) to Win 170 Final NY (93) @ NO (104)
12/9/2014 NBA: NY @ NO 200 on NO (-105) Give 6.5 to win 390 Final NY (93) @ NO (104)
12/8/2014 NBA: PHX @ LAC 95 on PHX (-106) Get 7.5 to win 185 Final/OT PHX (120) @ LAC (121)
12/8/2014 NBA: DEN @ TOR 20 on TOR (-108) Give 9.5 to win 39 Final/OT DEN (107) @ TOR (112)
12/8/2014 NBA: ATL @ IND 500 on ATL (-105) Get 1.5 to win 976 Final ATL (108) @ IND (92)
12/7/2014 NBA: NO @ LAL 20 on NO (-103) Give 2.5 to win 39 Final NO (104) @ LAL (87)
12/7/2014 NBA: POR @ NY 35 on POR (-109) Give 6.5 to win 67 Final POR (103) @ NY (99)
12/7/2014 NBA: WSH @ BOS 500 on WSH (-163) to Win 807 Final WSH (93) @ BOS (101)
12/6/2014 NBA: NO @ LAC 25 on NO (-105) Get 9.5 to win 49 Final NO (100) @ LAC (120)
12/6/2014 NBA: ORL @ SAC 500 on SAC (-250) to Win 700 Final ORL (105) @ SAC (96)


I bet moneyline 40% of time in this period and went 9-5.
80% of the games bet included a western playoff ranked team.
I gave points 70% of the time I bet spreads and went 5-6.
Getting points I was 3-2.
On average I gave about 5 pts and got about 6.

Analysis or suggestions are welcome.

[willguo]

That's 28 bets on 21 games over a period where there were 60 games. That would mean ~600 bets or ~450 games over a full season. That's an astounding number - I've only seen crazies and ultra sharps do that, and most people who are doing 600 bets a year would have to be doing totals as well.

(Obviously extrapolating 60 game samples to a full season is not optimal.)

[Crow]

I wanted some experience. I might high grade opportunities from here if I continue.

Have no interest in totals. Would really have to crunch the numbers to compete on that.