APBRmetrics

This kind of streak seems kind of sketchy. Lots of games he didn't score 10 because he didn't play. Very few, perhaps none, where he left early due to injury. Last night, Draymond Green had zero assists, breaking a streak of games with at least 1. He got hurt @ 9 minutes. (Last time he got 0, it was...

Jokic carried a 90% plus chance of taking MVP for a week or 2, and now it's daily becoming more like a race. Prob m-v-p tm W% PER WS WS/48 BPM VORP .559 Jokic Den .71 35.4 5.9 .389 16.9 3.5 .377 Shai OKC .96 33.1 5.9 .382 13.1 2.8 .041 Luka LAL .75 29.3 2.9 .234 9.5 1.7 .006 Reaves LAL .75 24.2 2.9 ...

Walrus surges and along with DARKO, bpmW, and DQuinn, having their lowest errors so far.* . avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2 vegas 6.47 8.00 .57 eWin 7.31 8.88 .45 DRKO 6.52 8.28 .52 perW 7.39 9.64 .37 bpmW 6.71 8.29 .52 dtka 7.45 8.92 .44 Walr 6.97 8.34 .51 WShr 7.48 9.15 .42 avgA 6.97 8.62 .48 ...

OKC remaining schedule expects to be tougher than to-date by 4.34 points per opponent. If they aren't especially motivated to win every game down the stretch, .700 might be pretty close. Or if injury should strike. vegas is leading by this much: top: 6.39 8.10 .56 . avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r...

Vegas now leads at any exponent <4.8 . avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2 vegas 6.42 7.94 .59 eWin 7.40 9.14 .44 DRKO 6.66 8.55 .51 dtka 7.40 9.08 .45 bpmW 6.85 8.47 .52 perW 7.42 9.85 .37 knar 6.98 8.68 .50 Crow 7.56 9.82 .40 avgA 7.03 8.79 .48 WShr 7.72 9.37 .42 Mgoo 7.05 8.89 .47 medi 7.73 9.54 ...

Here is an alternative ranking, based on 4 readily available summary stats. First column is the avg of the 4 'wins', multiplied by 82/(team games). Teams have played (Hou) 16 to 20 (GS) games now. xW82 wxyz Wins Tm min perW WS bpmW eWin PER WS/48 BPM e484 23.4 Nikola Jokić Den 592 4.1 5.0 5.6 4.7 36...

eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 1.17 Nikola Jokić Den .714 36.0 13.7 9.5 3.85 .651 29.2 13.0 8.0 2.89 1.04 Shai G-A OKC .660 43.4 5.7 6.6 3.68 .624 37.2 5.2 5.9 2.88 .99 Tyrese Maxey Phl .603 27.7 4.2 5.6 2.10 .554 21.1 3.3 4.8 1.39 .92 Jalen Johnson Atl .620 22.9 10....

22% of the season done, still adding to 52 expected eWins. e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 5.5 Kon Knueppel Cha 600 .626 17.9 6.8 2.5 .9 2.7 .2 .98 5.3 Cooper Flagg Dal 604 .520 15.2 6.8 3.0 1.5 2.4 .7 .98 4.9 Cedric Coward Mem 510 .595 15.7 7.6 3.1 1.0 1.7 .5 1.09 4.8 Derik ...

At 22% of the season. e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484 22.7 Nikola Jokić Den 592 .714 36.0 13.7 9.5 1.6 3.7 .8 3.85 20.8 Shai G-A OKC 632 .660 43.4 5.7 6.6 1.7 1.9 .9 3.68 14.6 Luka Dončić LAL 484 .601 32.9 9.5 7.6 1.9 4.1 .5 3.02 14.2 Tyrese Maxey Phl 679 .603 27.7 4.2 5.6 1....

EExp take a dive -- error up .22 while avgA sheds .19 and Darko .32 . avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2 DRKO 6.34 8.41 .49 eWin 7.16 9.08 .41 vegas 6.60 8.16 .55 dtka 7.28 9.02 .42 bpmW 6.75 8.43 .49 WShr 7.45 9.42 .38 avgA 6.76 8.81 .44 Crow 7.49 9.85 .37 knar 6.82 8.50 .47 KPel 7.67 9.85 .37 Mgo...

From last regular season to playoffs, Thunder got better on 4 factors, worse on 4. Is that accounting for the strength of opponent in each series? Playoff teams have up to 4 opponents, each with 8 Regular Season Factors and their relation to NBA averages. In RS, competition is average; in PO it's t...

Wizards have won 6% of games so far. BRef is projecting they win 24% of the remainder. How strong a candidate for worst record in league history? Of their top 11 players (as of a few days ago), 2 show major improvements: George and Sarr. Another 3 are pretty stable, and 6 have experienced precipito...

Overall best numbers in a week, least top-to-bottom all year. . avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2 DRKO 6.66 8.51 .48 Walr 7.33 8.68 .46 vegas 6.78 8.18 .55 eWin 7.45 9.17 .40 bpmW 6.82 8.47 .49 WShr 7.59 9.49 .37 EExp 6.83 8.46 .49 medi 7.62 9.66 .41 avgA 6.95 8.85 .44 KPel 7.68 9.81 .37 knar 7.08...

OKC has actually gotten a lot better of late, so it's not just more data or less regression by b-r.com Plugging in the current SRS of their opponents, it's seen that they've played just one team from the top 12, Hou in game 1. The game SRS column is just that game's margin of victory + opponent SRS....

Of course when you are comparing good teams to other good teams, specific stat advantages will become more random. The top 8 teams shoot over .600 TS% on avg. The bottom 8 shoot .560. Without this significant difference, there is little differentiation within the subsets. The factors that make a tea...