Search found 4170 matches

by Mike G
Sun Jan 20, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Hey Coach/GM
Replies: 22
Views: 4188

Re: Hey Coach/GM

It's a big dropoff from Kemba to next-best point producer. Willy H might be #2, so does he have more value as go-to guy when Kemba is out?
by Mike G
Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:18 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 338
Views: 82119

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Just noticed on the b-r.com player Splits page for Clippers rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilgesh01/splits/2019 Go down to the split for Minutes. Separated out by minutes per game ranges. Min. G FG% 3fg% TS% ORtg DRtg TO/36 +/- 30-39 8 .584 .471 .661 ...
by Mike G
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: improved players 2018-19
Replies: 4
Views: 145

Re: improved players 2018-19

Thanks for the inputs. I also ran these numbers when Kemba had played 29 games, 1006 minutes. His RPM has since slipped from 3.19 to 2.81, PIPM from 1.3 to 1.1, and his deficit -- relative to prior 4.54 and 2.7 -- has grown from -33 to -50. It's really just more of the same, alleviated a bit by redu...
by Mike G
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: improved players 2018-19
Replies: 4
Views: 145

Re: improved players 2018-19

Here's a data dump of the 200 veterans with >500 minutes, sorted by team with team total given. Players with <500 MP are not included in the total, and players traded midseason have all minutes/pts+ ascribed to current team. . Atl pts+ RPM MYR PIPM MYPI Alex Len 11 -0.97 -2.32 -1.1 -1.1 DeAndre' Bem...
by Mike G
Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: improved players 2018-19
Replies: 4
Views: 145

improved players 2018-19

Using multi-year RPM and PIPM, subtracting those values from this season's RPM and PIPM, all gotten from this page: http://craftednba.com/player-cats/king Points added above and beyond multi-year expectations in this seasons minutes. Pts+ = ((RPM-MYR)*Min/48 + (PIPM-MYPI)*Min/48))/2 I set a cutoff a...
by Mike G
Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Notes about RPM estimates
Replies: 13
Views: 3009

Re: Notes about RPM estimates

Doncic just had 2 of his 3 biggest games of the year, in GameScore. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01/gamelog/2019/ Sorting thru his box scores, I see that in the 10 games he's played <30 minutes, the average scoring margin is 21 points: mostly blowouts, where scrubs from both...
by Mike G
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:05 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 338
Views: 82119

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Perhaps someone can explain this. The Mavs have outscored opponents by 0.3 PPG, at a pace of 99.9 -- call it 100. Over on this page -- https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2019/on-off/ -- we see Doncic has played 65% of Dallas minutes, and his Offensive On-Off is +0.9 (The next 5 teammates...
by Mike G
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 338
Views: 82119

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

In this century -- now in it's 20th season -- the top 100 rookies in FGA/G: http://bkref.com/tiny/NVUlA The range is from 18.9 FGA/G (LeBron'03) to 9.2. At 15.2, Doncic ranks 10th. Per100, they range from 27.4 (Ben Gordon '05) to 14.3 (Rubio '12). Doncic shoots 22.7, ranking 19th. The median eFG% is...
by Mike G
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 338
Views: 82119

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

Doncic is listed at 6'7". He's played 78% of his minutes at PF and 22% at SF. There are 93 players between 6-6 and 6-8 who have played at least 500 minutes this year. In DReb%, Doncic ranks 10th of 93. He's #26 in OReb% and #14 in TReb%. http://bkref.com/tiny/Qz3wu Just among F and F-C of that size,...
by Mike G
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 season commentary
Replies: 338
Views: 82119

Re: 2018-19 season commentary

After 42 games, Luka Doncic seems to be ironing out the kinks in his game. Dividing into equal thirds of 14 games each: gms TS% DRb% Ast% Stl% TO% Usg% ORtg DRtg GmSc 1-14 .584 17.9 20.2 1.3 19.6 25.9 104 110 12.8 15-28 .532 20.3 28.8 1.9 15.4 26.8 106 108 13.6 29-42 .574 17.5 30.8 1.9 11.8 32.1 114...
by Mike G
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 117
Views: 46070

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Most years, our composite average is a contender for 'best' guess. At present, that entry would rank 6th, but .53 off the pace set by tarrazu. On the left are teams that trzu is currently beating the average; on the right are those where he looks worse than "avg" , relative to the b-r.com win projec...
by Mike G
Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 117
Views: 46070

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse trzu 5.14 6.41 bbst 5.87 7.20 cali 5.48 6.95 sndi 6.13 7.73 KPel 5.56 6.87 J-TF 6.16 8.35 emin 5.57 6.94 gold 6.20 7.78 shad 5.60 6.62 Crow 6.24 8.15 vegas 5.70 6.75 538_ 6.46 7.91 AnJo 5.72 7.02 kmed 7.07 8.80 Jinx 5.80 7.30 Cica 7.37 8.91 RyRi 5.83 7.13 Rd11 7.42...
by Mike G
Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 117
Views: 46070

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Almost no changes in this update, but it's been a week, so: avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse trzu 5.29 6.69 bbst 6.11 7.48 cali 5.53 7.22 sndi 6.29 8.01 shad 5.71 6.81 J-TF 6.40 8.62 KPel 5.80 7.08 gold 6.46 7.93 emin 5.82 7.30 538_ 6.65 8.15 vegas 5.85 6.97 Crow 6.72 8.55 AnJo 5.86 7.19 kmed 7.29 ...
by Mike G
Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:33 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 117
Views: 46070

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Blended avg of 18 entries would be about 8th, but in a crowded pack might be 5 to 10.
In RMSE, avg ranks 10th today, but is .10 from #7
Pretty much average.

I wonder if previous years' updates would show whether straight avg or RMSE better predicts the season-final rankings.
by Mike G
Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 117
Views: 46070

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Bad night for almost everyone. Average .022 worse than yesterday. avg abs err rmse avg abs err rmse trzu 5.37 6.84 bbst 6.07 7.52 cali 5.56 7.52 sndi 6.23 8.17 shad 5.69 7.01 J-TF 6.33 8.78 emin 5.79 7.41 gold 6.38 7.96 vegas 5.83 7.15 538_ 6.58 8.30 KPel 5.84 7.24 Crow 6.69 8.71 Jinx 5.88 7.82 kmed...