2026 Playoff Summaries

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DSMok1
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by DSMok1 »

I think the primary reason is that in the playoffs the opponents spend a lot of time crafting custom game plans to take away the opponent's top players and preferred actions. In almost all cases this involves the other team's MVP candidate being significantly limited on offense by the defensive game plan and forcing the remaining players on their team to take on a greater role or greater responsibility than in the regular season.
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Mike G
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

Those can all be factors, and offsetting those are perhaps better refereeing (or more protective of stars), better teammates (thus Less pressure), no back-to-backs.
Last year's playoffs did not show this RS-to-PO statistical collapse. There were 12 who received mvp votes, and their RS stats held very well thru the postseason.

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'25   PER   WS/48  BPM
RS   23.7   .190   6.3
PO   23.5   .177   7.2

'26   PER   WS/48  BPM
RS   25.0   .221   6.9
PO   19.9   .131   3.2
The minutes-weighted PO BPM is still 7.2
I suspect the 2025 results are more typical. Scoring is way down from the RS, and it's largely due to elite players not measuring up.
Others not included in the 2026 sample come to mind: Reaves, Edwards, Randle, Maxey, Booker, Avdija, Clingan, Nickeil, A Gordon, D White, Ingram ... with major dropoffs across the board.
These summary stats bring the whole field up to average: poor shooting and turnovers are attributed to stronger defense.
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

A wee bit late: Leaders thru 2 rounds.

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xyzW  xyz/G   player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484    pWin    WS    bWin   eWin
1.82  .182   Karl-A Towns   NYK   285   30.4  .393  14.4   3.03    1.63   2.24   1.72   1.80
1.80  .129   Evan Mobley    Cle   494   20.7  .189   6.6   1.79    1.66   1.86   1.80   1.85
1.64  .117  Cade Cunningham Det   572   18.2  .098   3.4   1.71    1.58   1.12   1.52   2.04
1.54  .154  Vi. Wembanyama  SAS   288   27.9  .275   9.3   3.00    1.47   1.58   1.29   1.80
1.39  .139   Jalen Brunson  NYK   347   23.9  .253   4.5   2.12    1.44   1.75   1.04   1.53

1.37  .171   OG Anunoby     NYK   282   25.9  .331  10.0   2.03    1.30   1.86   1.32   1.19
1.35  .096   Jarrett Allen  Cle   403   21.3  .199   4.1   1.63    1.42   1.60   1.16   1.37
1.32  .094   Do. Mitchell   Cle   503   18.4  .110   1.2   1.63    1.42   1.10   1.00   1.70
1.28  .159   Shai G-A       OKC   279   28.0  .280   6.2   2.32    1.43   1.56    .98   1.35
1.26  .090   James Harden   Cle   524   16.5  .095   2.2   1.34    1.23    .99   1.20   1.46

xyzW  xyz/G   player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484    pWin    WS    bWin   eWin
1.25  .089   Tobias Harris  Det   485   16.5  .134   2.1   1.43    1.14   1.30   1.09   1.44
1.18  .084  Ausar Thompson  Det   427   16.4  .138   5.3   1.20    1.00   1.18   1.38   1.07
1.15  .104  Stephon Castle  SAS   350   19.5  .201   3.1   1.79    1.08   1.40    .90   1.31
1.11  .111   LeBron James   LAL   384   18.7  .088   3.0   1.84    1.11    .67    .97   1.47
1.10  .100   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   437   18.5  .069   2.8   1.41    1.24    .60   1.08   1.28

1.09  .137   Chet Holmgren  OKC   251   25.9  .274   6.2   2.16    1.16   1.37    .88   1.13
1.08  .154  Scottie Barnes  Tor   273   22.8  .174   8.1   1.97    1.06    .95   1.12   1.12
1.00  .167   Jayson Tatum   Bos   218   23.9  .212   8.9   2.54     .90    .92    .95   1.15
.98   .089   De'Aaron Fox   SAS   366   17.0  .159   1.5   1.51     .91   1.16    .76   1.15
.97   .138  Paolo Banchero  Orl   273   20.0  .108   6.5   2.08     .87    .59    .98   1.18

xyzW  xyz/G   player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484    pWin    WS    bWin   eWin
.96   .159   Nikola Jokić   Den   237   22.7  .133   8.0   2.29     .91    .63    .96   1.13
.93   .085  Jul. Champagnie SAS   310   16.4  .229   5.7   1.06     .72   1.42   1.04    .68
.89   .089   Rui Hachimura  LAL   386   15.6  .134   3.6    .85     .83   1.03   1.05    .69
.88   .080   Dylan Harper   SAS   277   19.9  .227   4.0   1.37     .88   1.26    .79    .79
.87   .109   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   238   23.0  .234   3.9   1.86     .93   1.11    .67    .92

.87   .124   Joel Embiid    Phl   233   23.7  .116   6.0   2.15     .95    .54    .80   1.05
.87   .087   Ayo Dosunmu    Min   292   17.9  .146   5.4   1.35     .79    .85    .95    .82
.83   .064  Duncan Robinson Det   383   13.3  .139   3.9    .74     .61   1.06   1.08    .59
.76   .096  Is. Hartenstein OKC   204   22.8  .273   4.5   1.72     .79   1.11    .61    .73
.76   .076   Mikal Bridges  NYK   292   16.7  .209   2.8    .97     .70   1.22    .72    .59
Crow
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Crow »

Opponent adjusted could be an additional step.

A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.
Mike G
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

Crow wrote: Mon May 25, 2026 9:16 pm Opponent adjusted could be an additional step.
I've experimented with that, and in this rendition "wins" still add up to # of games played. The BPM component gives a bonus for opponent strength, while PER punishes team defense (relative to offense) and WS over-rewards winning margin. All occasionally get it 'right'.
A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.
Per game is included for the curious.
Quality matters more when it's sustained. Last year, Giannis had far and away the best PO rates, but for only 5 games. No one remembers or cares; and winning does matter.
Mike G
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

MVP vs wannaVP
Thru 5 games of the WCF
Shai looks like a model of consistency, while Wemby may take 20 shots or 4 shots, get 20 rebounds or 4 rebounds.
Here are their regular season and playoff averages and their average deviations (from their averages) in each interval.

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Wemby  USG%   ORtg  DRtg  GmSc   BPM      Shai  USG%   ORtg  DRtg  GmSc   BPM
RS     32.4   122   100   22.4  10.7      RS    33.5   134   108   26.4  11.7
avedev  5.2   17.1  11.0   7.4   7.9     avedev  3.7   18.6   8.9   5.9   6.4
                                    
Wemby  USG%   ORtg  DRtg  GmSc   BPM      Shai  USG%   ORtg  DRtg  GmSc   BPM
PO     27.6   121    99   21.0   9.9      PO    32.0   125   114   22.3   6.3
avedev  4.8   15.1  13.9   6.2   6.4     avedev  3.0   15.6   7.7   5.6   3.5
all **  4.7   18.2  14.4   8.2   8.3    
Wemby's playoff avedev omits his two 12-minute games (concussion and ejection) which were distinctly his 2 worst so far.
** - includes those 2 "games".

D-Rating is largely a Team measure, so Shai works with a consistent system, while SAS defense = Wemby defense, in large part.
In RS, Wemby's BPM variance was 23% bigger than Shai's. In PO almost twice as much.
Mike G
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

Thru the conference finals, leaders in "wins" -- the avg of wins according to 4 different stats.

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wins  W/G   player        tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484     perW  WShr  bpmW  eWin
2.9  .18  Vi. Wembanyama SAS   552   27.6  .265   9.7   2.86      2.9   2.9   2.5   3.3
2.4  .17   Karl-A Towns  NYK   423   27.2  .346  11.9   2.68      2.2   2.9   2.2   2.4
2.2  .15   Shai G-A      OKC   544   24.9  .211   6.4   2.14      2.5   2.3   1.9   2.4
2.0  .11   Evan Mobley   Cle   640   19.3  .142   5.4   1.62      2.0   1.8   2.1   2.2
1.9  .14  Jalen Brunson  NYK   506   22.7  .241   3.9   2.00      2.0   2.4   1.4   2.1

1.9  .16   OG Anunoby    NYK   406   24.5  .325   9.1   1.94      1.8   2.6   1.8   1.6
1.8  .10  Stephon Castle SAS   602   18.2  .166   2.7   1.56      1.7   2.0   1.4   2.0
1.7  .09   Do. Mitchell  Cle   652   18.5  .090   2.0   1.59      1.9   1.2   1.4   2.2
1.6  .12   C Cunningham  Det   572   18.2  .098   3.4   1.71      1.6   1.1   1.5   2.0
1.6  .09  Jarrett Allen  Cle   529   20.6  .179   3.7   1.47      1.8   1.9   1.4   1.6

wins  W/G   player        tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484     perW  WShr  bpmW  eWin
1.4  .09  Chet Holmgren  OKC   459   20.4  .191   3.0   1.52      1.6   1.7   1.1   1.4
1.4  .08   J Champagnie  SAS   547   14.6  .179   4.4    .90      1.1   2.0   1.6   1.0
1.4  .08   Dylan Harper  SAS   460   18.6  .191   3.6   1.32      1.4   1.8   1.2   1.3
1.3  .07   James Harden  Cle   672   14.7  .050   0.8   1.13      1.3    .7   1.2   1.6
1.3  .07  Devin Vassell  SAS   609   13.2  .129   2.6    .85      1.0   1.6   1.4   1.1

1.3  .08   De'Aaron Fox  SAS   521   15.9  .130   1.2   1.40      1.2   1.3   1.0   1.5
1.2  .08  Ausar Thompson Det   427   16.4  .138   5.3   1.20      1.0   1.2   1.4   1.1
1.1  .08  Tobias Harris  Det   485   16.5  .134   2.1   1.43      1.1   1.2   1.0   1.3
1.1  .08   Josh Hart     NYK   462   14.3  .147   2.1   1.26       .9   1.4   1.0   1.2
1.1  .07  Cason Wallace  OKC   374   17.6  .185   7.3    .93      1.0   1.4   1.4    .7

wins  W/G   player        tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484     perW  WShr  bpmW  eWin
1.1  .11   LeBron James  LAL   384   18.7  .088   3.0   1.84      1.1    .7   1.0   1.5
1.1  .10   Tyrese Maxey  Phl   437   18.5  .069   2.8   1.41      1.3    .6   1.1   1.3
1.1  .15  Scottie Barnes Tor   273   22.8  .174   8.1   1.97      1.1    .9   1.1   1.1
1.1  .07  I Hartenstein  OKC   350   20.0  .197   2.9   1.51      1.2   1.4    .9   1.1
1.1  .08  Mikal Bridges  NYK   444   16.8  .202   2.9   1.02      1.0   1.6   1.0    .9

1.0  .17   Jayson Tatum  Bos   218   23.9  .212   8.9   2.54       .9    .9    .9   1.2
1.0  .07   Alex Caruso   OKC   353   17.6  .168   5.4   1.00      1.0   1.2   1.1    .7
1.0  .14  Paolo Banchero Orl   273   20.0  .108   6.5   2.08       .9    .6   1.0   1.2
1.0  .16   Nikola Jokić  Den   237   22.7  .133   8.0   2.29       .9    .6    .9   1.1
.89  .09  Rui Hachimura  LAL   386   15.6  .134   3.6    .85       .9   1.0   1.0    .7
Mike G
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

Team total stats thru 3 rounds, and correlations to minutes per game. Separated by playoff depth reached.

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1st   min*   PER   WS/48   BPM    e480 corr avg   PER  WS/48  BPM  e480
Hou   290   13.3   .070   -0.93    .86      .62   .69   .39   .62   .80
Orl   271   13.1   .071    1.30    .89      .55   .56   .32   .65   .68
Atl   260   12.6  -.006   -0.93    .61      .44   .54   .21   .43   .59
Bos   256   15.1   .118    1.79   1.09      .30   .37  -.03   .39   .48

Den   277   13.4   .069    0.53    .83      .28   .45  -.14   .25   .57
Phx   256   12.8  -.012   -0.88    .62      .28   .34   .03   .09   .65
Tor   257   14.5   .079    0.71    .92      .14   .15  -.08   .25   .25
Por   245   12.4   .028    0.00    .68     -.15  -.16  -.22  -.12  -.10
                                 
2nd   min    PER   WS/48    BPM   e480      avg   PER  WS/48  BPM  e480
Det   269   14.8   .114    1.96   1.01      .64   .85   .29   .47   .94
LAL   273   13.5   .066   -0.20    .87      .54   .57   .17   .78   .65
Phl   268   14.2   .042    0.28    .83      .40   .50   .03   .51   .57
Min   290   13.7   .071    1.30    .91     -.31  -.23  -.47  -.45  -.10
                                 
3rd   min    PER   WS/48    BPM   e480      avg   PER  WS/48  BPM  e480
Cle   260   14.0   .078    0.77    .88      .69   .79   .38   .71   .87
NYK   265   18.6   .217    3.44   1.40      .56   .54   .46   .61   .64
OKC   270   17.6   .146    3.07   1.38      .53   .60   .55   .35   .64
SAS   273   16.9   .164    3.25   1.32      .47   .42   .36   .54   .55
* - "minutes" here are the sum of player mpg, whether they appeared in all games or just one. The further from 240 they are, the more uncertain the stats shown. Correlations are for players 1-10 in mpg, with more weight on 1 thru 7 and least on player #10.

Averages for each level:

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tm    min    PER   WS/48    BPM   e480 corr avg   PER  WS/48  BPM  e480
1st   264   13.4   .052    0.20    .81      .31   .37   .06   .32   .49
2nd   275   14.1   .073    0.83    .90      .32   .42   .01   .33   .52
3rd   269   16.8   .151    2.63   1.24      .52   .52   .46   .50   .61

tot   268   15.0   .101    1.42   1.02      .38   .44   .15   .38   .54
Teams that overachieved in early rounds get thrashed later and end up as below-avg playoff teams.
The Cavs had the highest correlations between minutes and stats. Perhaps they just stuck with what had been working, or they didn't have many options.
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

Best individual performances of this postseason, thru the Finals.

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game  rd  G    Player        tm  Pts oPts  opp   GmSc    BPM   min
22.2   1  2   Marcus Smart  LAL  101   94  Hou   26.1   21.0   35.5
20.3   1  2   VJ Edgecombe  Phl  111   97  Bos   26.8   17.5   35.3
24.0   1  3  Scottie Barnes Tor  126  104  Cle   33.8   22.1   34.8
20.2   1  3   OG Anunoby    NYK  108  109  Atl   28.3   17.6   36.6
21.1   1  3   Marcus Smart  LAL  112  108  Hou   27.1   18.2   39.3

28.8   1  4   Ayo Dosumnu   Min  112   96  Den   37.1   22.1   42.0
24.8   1  3   Shai G-A      OKC  121  109  Phx   38.6   19.5   37.9
20.3   1  4   P Pritchard   Bos  128   96  Phl   28.2   16.7   34.6
20.2   1  4   V Wembanyama  SAS  114   93  Por   28.5   15.9   34.3
20.7   1  5  Jalen Brunson  NYK  126   97  Atl   32.4   14.7   34.7

20.4   1  5 Cade Cunningham Det  116  109  Orl   33.8   11.5   43.7
23.6   1  6   OG Anunoby    NYK  140   89  Atl   31.0   26.6   27.2
20.5   1  6  Scottie Barnes Tor  112  110  Cle   28.3   12.7   48.0
21.2   1  7  Tobias Harris  Det  116   94  Orl   28.6   16.8   36.3
24.9   2  3   V Wembanyama  SAS  115  108  Min   37.9   20.5   37.0

game  rd  G    Player        tm  Pts oPts  opp   GmSc    BPM   min
19.7   2  4   James Harden  Cle  112  103  Det   25.6   16.7   37.4
25.0   3  1   V Wembanyama  SAS  122  115  OKC   40.1   14.6   48.7
23.1   3  7   Shai G-A      OKC  103  111  SAS   32.5   17.1   43.0
22.3   4  3   V Wembanyama  SAS  115  111  NYK   32.3   18.2   38.7
22.2   4  4   OG Anunoby    NYK  107  106  SAS   28.7   17.7   41.5
27.8   4  5  Jalen Brunson  NYK   94   90  SAS   32.9   22.2   41.1
Mike G
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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

ESPN has produced a 1st and 2nd team All-Playoff guys.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/490 ... wembanyama
3 Knicks, Wemby, and one non-Finalist comprise the 1st team. See the final column.
xyzWins are weighted average of wins suggested by 4 knowable stats:

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xyzW    player        tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484  E
3.65  V. Wembanyama  SAS   750   26.3  .236   8.9   2.67  1
2.79   Karl-A Towns  NYK   578   24.4  .293   9.4   2.38  1
2.67   OG Anunoby    NYK   586   23.8  .308   9.4   1.95  1
2.61  Jalen Brunson  NYK   702   22.2  .203   4.6   2.03  1
2.24   Shai G-A      OKC   544   24.9  .211   6.4   2.14  1

2.04   Evan Mobley   Cle   640   19.3  .142   5.4   1.62   
1.94  Stephon Castle SAS   760   16.8  .139   1.8   1.39  2
1.79   Dylan Harper  SAS   615   18.4  .180   3.7   1.35   
1.78  Devin Vassell  SAS   801   13.6  .139   3.3    .88   
1.72 Jul. Champagnie SAS   705   14.3  .166   4.5    .86   

xyzW    11-20         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484  E
1.71   Do. Mitchell  Cle   652   18.5  .090   2.0   1.59   
1.64  Ca. Cunningham Det   572   18.2  .098   3.4   1.71   
1.63  Jarrett Allen  Cle   529   20.6  .179   3.7   1.47  2
1.51   Josh Hart     NYK   614   14.2  .146   2.8   1.24   
1.47  Mikal Bridges  NYK   608   15.5  .182   2.8    .91  2

1.42  Chet Holmgren  OKC   459   20.4  .191   3.0   1.52   
1.39   De'Aaron Fox  SAS   704   14.0  .094   0.5   1.13   
1.27   James Harden  Cle   672   14.7  .050   0.8   1.13   
1.18  Tobias Harris  Det   485   16.5  .134   2.1   1.43   
1.18  Ausar Thompson Det   427   16.4  .138   5.3   1.20   

xyzW    21-30         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484  E
1.11   LeBron James  LAL   384   18.7  .088   3.0   1.84   
1.11  Cason Wallace  OKC   374   17.6  .185   7.3    .93   
1.10   Tyrese Maxey  Phl   437   18.5  .069   2.8   1.41   
1.08  Scottie Barnes Tor   273   22.8  .174   8.1   1.97   
1.08  I Hartenstein  OKC   350   20.0  .197   2.9   1.51   

1.00   Jayson Tatum  Bos   218   23.9  .212   8.9   2.54   
.98   Alex Caruso    OKC   353   17.6  .168   5.4   1.00  2
.96  Paolo Banchero  Orl   273   20.0  .108   6.5   2.08   
.95   Nikola Jokić   Den   237   22.7  .133   8.0   2.29   
.89   Rui Hachimura  LAL   386   15.6  .134   3.6    .85   

xyzW    31-40         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484  
.87   Joel Embiid    Phl   233   23.7  .116   6.0   2.15   
.86   Ayo Dosunmu    Min   292   17.9  .146   5.4   1.35   
.84   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   317   18.7  .145   1.8   1.38   
.83  Duncan Robinson Det   383   13.3  .139   3.9    .74   
.75   Max Strus      Cle   481   12.1  .093   0.9    .58   

.71   Luke Kornet    SAS   296   16.6  .199   2.2    .85   
.70  Alperen Şengün  Hou   232   19.8  .120   3.1   1.75   
.69   Paul George    Phl   394   14.2  .038   2.2    .83   
.69   Jaylen Brown   Bos   249   18.5  .078   2.9   1.75   
.69   Jalen Duren    Det   422   13.8  .095  -1.7    .97   

xyzW    41-50         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484  E
.68   Amen Thompson  Hou   264   17.7  .139   2.3   1.28   
.66   Naz Reid       Min   323   14.6  .093   2.1    .97   
.65  Anthony Edwards Min   324   15.3  .036   1.3   1.26   
.65   Rudy Gobert    Min   372   13.0  .090   1.1    .78   
.64   M Robinson     NYK   251   18.6  .202   0.8   1.13   

.64  Collin M-Boyles Tor   191   23.0  .191   5.6   1.33   
.61   Marcus Smart   LAL   345   13.1  .048   1.8    .93   
.59  Jaden McDaniels Min   406   12.9  .058  -0.7    .79  2
.58   RJ Barrett     Tor   271   16.5  .058   0.8   1.35   
.56   Tari Eason     Hou   195   18.6  .189   4.0   1.20   
Player #48 is only the 5th best on his team by the aggregate; 1st in none.

And here are players' eWins and adjusted per 36 minute rates, all with 150+ minutes.

Code: Select all

eWin    per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
4.11   V Wembanyama   SA   750  .593   26.7  11.5   2.6   1.0   3.0  3.8   2.66
2.95   Jalen Brunson  NY   702  .564   29.5   3.4   5.6   1.2   3.0   .0   2.03
2.85   Karl-A Towns   NY   578  .670   22.5  13.9   5.6   1.5   3.5  1.5   2.38
2.37   Shai G-A      OKC   544  .577   28.2   3.1   7.1   1.3   3.4   .9   2.12
2.37   OG Anunoby     NY   586  .705   24.4   7.2   1.6   1.6    .7  1.2   1.95

2.18  Stephon Castle  SA   760  .574   21.2   5.5   6.3   1.0   4.1   .4   1.39
2.12   Evan Mobley   Cle   640  .596   17.4   9.1   3.6   1.1   2.5  1.8   1.62
2.12   D Mitchell    Cle   652  .551   24.8   5.4   2.8   1.3   2.8   .3   1.59
2.03   C Cunningham  Det   572  .560   26.9   4.9   6.2    .9   5.5   .5   1.71
1.70   Dylan Harper   SA   615  .601   19.2   7.1   3.2   1.2   2.1   .3   1.34

eWin    11-20         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.66   De'Aaron Fox   SA   704  .491   16.2   4.1   6.0   1.4   2.4   .5   1.14
1.59  Jarrett Allen  Cle   529  .621   15.7   9.9   1.2   1.3   1.3  2.2   1.47
1.58   Josh Hart      NY   614  .520   11.7  11.1   4.9   1.8   2.4   .2   1.24
1.56   James Harden  Cle   672  .555   18.3   5.5   4.9   1.8   4.9   .7   1.13
1.46   Devin Vassell  SA   801  .568   13.6   5.5   2.6   1.3   1.1   .8    .88

1.46   LeBron James   LA   384  .541   22.5   7.0   6.3   1.4   3.9   .3   1.84
1.44  Chet Holmgren  OKC   459  .651   17.7  10.4   1.2   1.2   1.8  1.8   1.52
1.44  Tobias Harris  Det   485  .515   18.3   8.1   1.6   1.6   1.2   .8   1.43
1.28   Tyrese Maxey  Phl   437  .555   20.6   3.6   4.5    .8   2.0   .3   1.41
1.26  Jul Champagnie  SA   705  .611   13.0   6.8   1.7   1.5    .7   .6    .87

eWin    21-30         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.18  Paolo Banchero Orl   273  .511   24.3   8.3   5.8   1.3   3.5   .7   2.08
1.15   Jayson Tatum  Bos   218  .598   24.1  11.2   6.3   1.0   3.0   .0   2.54
1.15   Mikal Bridges  NY   608  .638   16.3   4.0   2.9   1.1   1.1   .4    .91
1.13   Nikola Jokić  Den   237  .544   21.2  11.4   7.8    .9   3.5   .8   2.29
1.11  Scottie Barnes Tor   273  .591   21.4   5.9   6.7   1.1   3.4  1.6   1.97

1.10  I Hartenstein  OKC   350  .652   15.1  13.9   3.6   1.2   3.0  1.1   1.52
1.06  Ausar Thompson Det   427  .511    9.8  10.0   3.5   2.4   2.1  2.2   1.20
1.05   Joel Embiid   Phl   233  .547   25.1   8.1   5.0    .4   2.5   .9   2.15
.92   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   317  .546   18.1   4.9   4.6   1.9   1.9   .1   1.39
.91   Jaylen Brown   Bos   249  .542   25.5   6.1   3.1    .8   3.9  1.2   1.75

eWin    31-40         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.86  Anthony Edwards Min   324  .526   21.7   6.5   2.4    .6   3.0   .8   1.27
.85   Jalen Duren    Det   422  .542   12.5  11.0   2.5    .8   3.0  1.5    .97
.83  Alperen Şengün  Hou   232  .508   18.8  10.5   4.1   1.6   3.1  1.3   1.75
.82   Ayo Dosunmu    Min   292  .612   20.3   4.4   4.1   1.2   1.9   .5   1.35
.75   RJ Barrett     Tor   271  .554   20.6   6.7   3.1   1.2   3.6   .3   1.35

.71   Alex Caruso    OKC   353  .642   15.6   4.5   2.6   2.0   1.5   .7    .98
.71   Cason Wallace  OKC   374  .645   11.8   5.4   2.9   2.9   1.1   .6    .93
.69   Amen Thompson  Hou   264  .540   16.3   6.3   4.3   1.5   2.2  1.0   1.28
.68   Paul George    Phl   394  .592   16.0   4.1   2.5   1.4   2.2   .5    .83
.68   Rui Hachimura   LA   386  .686   16.7   4.2   1.4    .9    .9   .6    .85

eWin    41-50         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.66  Jaden McDaniels Min   406  .506   15.3   6.4   2.1    .6   1.6   .7    .79
.66   Marcus Smart    LA   345  .535   15.0   4.1   4.9   2.8   4.0  1.1    .93
.66   Naz Reid       Min   323  .579   14.5   9.7   2.2    .6   1.8   .4    .97
.63   Deandre Ayton   LA   285  .552   12.5  13.7   1.1    .3   1.8  1.0   1.07
.61   Julius Randle  Min   400  .469   15.1   8.4   2.5    .6   3.3   .1    .73

.60   Rudy Gobert    Min   372  .489    7.2  11.3   2.2   1.4   1.5  1.3    .78
.59   M Robinson      NY   251  .537   10.4  14.2    .9    .9   1.2  1.4   1.13
.59  Duncan Robinson Det   383  .626   15.0   3.1   2.7   1.6   1.3   .3    .74
.57   Jalen Johnson  Atl   214  .542   16.6   8.5   4.2    .9   2.5   .3   1.29
.57   Max Strus      Cle   481  .573   11.4   6.9   2.4   1.2   1.8   .3    .58

eWin    51-60         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.57   Jamal Murray   Den   238  .477   17.6   4.3   4.6    .8   2.0   .3   1.16
.54   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   407  .500   11.6   6.0   2.7   1.1   1.7   .4    .63
.52  Collin M-Boyles Tor   191  .673   16.9   7.4   2.3   1.5   2.2  1.3   1.33
.52   Luke Kornet     SA   296  .609    9.9  10.1   1.7   1.5   1.4  1.8    .84
.50   Desmond Bane   Orl   253  .529   17.3   4.7   1.8   1.8   1.7   .3    .96

.49   Neemias Queta  Bos   152  .747   15.5  15.1    .9    .2   1.5  1.4   1.56
.48   Tari Eason     Hou   195  .580   14.4   8.0   1.7   2.5   1.0   .7   1.20
.47   Jabari Smith   Hou   252  .536   13.7   8.1   1.5    .8    .9   .6    .92
.46  Daniss Jenkins  Det   318  .465   12.2   4.3   4.1    .6   1.1   .5    .71
.45   P Pritchard    Bos   231  .531   13.7   3.9   4.7    .4    .8   .0    .95

eWin    61-70         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.45   Deni Avdija    Por   174  .547   20.6   6.5   4.0    .5   3.7   .6   1.23
.44  Wendell Carter  Orl   237  .606   12.1   7.5   3.0    .6   1.7  1.9    .90
.39   Jared McCain   OKC   258  .523   17.8   3.8   1.8    .7   1.6   .0    .73
.37   Luke Kennard    LA   326  .628   13.3   4.2   2.3   1.1   1.7   .1    .55
.36  Onyeka Okongwu  Atl   199  .694   11.7   7.9   2.0   1.4   1.3   .9    .86

.35   Keldon Johnson  SA   411  .485   12.8   6.1   1.5   1.1   2.1   .2    .41
.35   Austin Reaves   LA   221  .533   18.3   4.5   4.7    .0   4.6  1.1    .77
.34   Jrue Holiday   Por   192  .503   12.9   5.3   5.7   1.5   3.1   .4    .86
.33   Dyson Daniels  Atl   166  .500    8.0   8.9   5.3   2.6   2.5   .4    .94
.31  Jaylin Williams OKC   240  .544    9.0   8.9   2.7   1.1    .9   .4    .63

eWin    81-90         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.31   Kelly Oubre    Phl   364  .536   10.5   6.5   1.0    .6    .9   .5    .40
.29   Jose Alvarado   NY   170  .536   13.9   5.3   3.8   1.9   2.2   .4    .82
.28  Cameron Johnson Den   186  .603   15.4   3.5   2.4   1.2   1.2   .4    .74
.27   Mike Conley    Min   168  .679   11.5   3.3   5.5   1.8   1.1   .0    .77
.26   CJ McCollum    Atl   192  .518   17.5   3.7   1.8   1.2   4.1  1.3    .66

.26   Jalen Green    Phx   151  .468   15.4   5.3   2.6   2.1   3.3   .2    .83
.25 Terrence Shannon Min   203  .500   16.4   4.0   1.6    .7   1.5   .0    .59
.23   Caris LeVert   Det   216  .550   11.3   4.7   2.2   1.1   1.3   .9    .52
.22   Reed Sheppard  Hou   192  .406   11.4   1.2   4.9   2.3   2.4   .9    .57
.21  Ja'Kobe Walter  Tor   224  .534   10.9   3.6   1.3   2.2    .7   .3    .46

.19   Devin Booker   Phx   153  .552   16.4   4.2   3.5    .3   4.0   .2    .61
.19   Jalen Suggs    Orl   248  .415   10.1   4.1   4.2   1.8   3.4   .6    .37
.18   Derrick White  Bos   251  .446    9.2   3.5   2.9    .8   1.7  1.5    .35
.18   Jaxson Hayes    LA   163  .687   12.1   7.4   1.2    .7   2.2  1.6    .53
.17  Quentin Grimes  Phl   243  .561    9.3   4.1   2.8    .5    .9   .7    .34

eWin   91-100         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.17  Jordan Clarkson  NY   195  .514   14.4   5.9   1.7    .6   3.0   .2    .41
.16   Sam Hauser     Bos   164  .587   10.3   7.0   1.2    .2    .5   .2    .48
.16 Jonathan Kuminga Atl   156  .562   13.7   4.5   1.0    .7   1.3   .6    .50
.15   Jaylon Tyson   Cle   216  .451    8.3   7.7   2.8    .5   1.7   .2    .34
.14  Isaiah Stewart  Det   165  .659   10.9   6.8    .5    .2   1.8  2.6    .41

.13   Sam Merrill    Cle   338  .608   12.0   2.2   1.6    .8    .9   .0    .18
.12   Anthony Black  Orl   196  .465    8.6   3.4   1.5   2.2    .9   .8    .30
.12   Landry Shamet   NY   310  .630   12.8   2.5   1.4    .4    .9   .2    .20
.12  Dennis Schröder Cle   271  .490   10.2   3.3   4.5    .8   3.1   .4    .21
.11   Dean Wade      Cle   407  .594    6.4   6.8   1.1   1.2    .9   .1    .13

.09   Carter Bryant   SA   187  .617   10.8   6.6   2.4    .5   2.5  1.0    .24
.09  Christian Braun Den   187  .549    8.6   3.8   1.7   1.2    .8  1.0    .23
.04   Jamal Shead    Tor   224  .463    7.8   2.2   4.5   1.6   2.3   .2    .08
.03   Miles McBride   NY   334  .491    9.1   2.6   2.2    .8   1.1   .4    .05
.03 Nickeil A-Walker Atl   213  .522   11.1   2.6   2.2    .5   3.0   .9    .07

eWin   101-103         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.01  Toumani Camara  Por   165  .427    5.2   6.2   1.1   1.8   1.6   .7    .03
-.02  Luguentz Dort  OKC   335  .488    7.6   4.6   1.9    .8   1.0   .2   -.03
-.05 Harrison Barnes  SA   183  .484    7.2   4.5    .8    .3    .9   .2   -.14
These are not adjusted for strength of opponent; eWins/480 minutes of 1.00 is average for the games in which they played.
Crow
Posts: 11418
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Crow »

Spurs case built off 5 in top 10 of first list.
Knicks 5 in top 15.
Thunder 6 in top 33? SGA 5th wasn't enough and neither was that.

Cavs, 3 in top 18. Pistons 3 on top 20. Not enough high enough or enough in general.

These 5 teams had 28 of top 40. Of couse playing longer helps here. Per minute overall performance is available but would need a different sort.

Dosunmu leads the Timberwolves... in 32nd place.

Reaves not top 50 on top list and 77th on bottom list.
Mike G
Posts: 6487
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries

Post by Mike G »

How great was Wemby's far-and-away best by every measure postseason?
I don't know, but it was the lowest league-leading playoff VORP in over 20 years.

Code: Select all

year   VORP   player   tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM
2026   2.05   Wemby   SAS   750   26.3   .236    8.9
2025   2.23   Shai    OKC   851   25.3   .222    8.3
2024   2.19   Dončić  Dal   900   22.5   .149    7.6
2023   2.95   Jokić   Den   789   31.2   .305   12.8
2022   2.21   Butler  Mia   629   29.9   .291   11.8

2021   2.40  Giannis  Mil   800   27.6   .224    9.9
2020   2.45   LeBron  LAL   762   30.2   .269   10.7
2020   2.08   Davis   LAL   769   29.6   .284    8.7
2019   2.86   Kawhi   Tor   939   27.9   .244   10.1
2018   3.40   LeBron  Cle   922   32.2   .269   12.7

year   VORP   player   tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM
2017   2.24   LeBron  Cle   744   30.1   .275    9.8
2016   2.71   LeBron  Cle   822   30.0   .274   11.0
2015   2.25   Curry   GSW   826   24.5   .228    8.8
2015   2.07   LeBron  Cle   844   25.3   .173    7.9
2014   2.38   LeBron  Mia   763   31.0   .269   10.3

2013   2.99   LeBron  Mia   960   28.1   .260   10.4
2012   3.12   LeBron  Mia   983   30.3   .284   10.5
2012   2.15   Durant  OKC   837   27.5   .231    8.1
2011   2.17   Wade    Mia   828   26.3   .216    8.4
2011   2.11   LeBron  Mia   922   23.7   .198    7.1

year   VORP   player   tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM
2010   2.11   Kobe    LAL   923   24.7   .190    7.0
2009   2.86   LeBron  Cle   580   37.4   .399   17.5
2009   2.62   Kobe    LAL   940   26.8   .238    9.1
2008   2.15  Garnett  Bos   987   23.0   .199    6.6
2008   2.05   Kobe    LAL   863   25.0   .178    7.4

2007   2.24   LeBron  Cle   893   23.9   .200    8.1
2006   2.75  Nowitzki Dal   983   26.8   .263    9.2
2006   2.75   Wade    Mia   959   26.9   .240    9.3
2005   2.19  Ginóbili SAS   772   24.8   .260    9.2
2005   2.04  Billups  Det   985   20.0   .224    6.3

year   VORP   player   tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM
2004  (1.79)  Bryant  LAL   973   21.0   .145    5.3
2003   3.15   Duncan  SAS  1021   28.4   .279   10.2
2002  (1.87)  Shaq    LAL   776   28.3   .236    7.5
2001   2.08  Iverson  Phl  1016   22.5   .130    6.1
2000   2.57   Shaq    LAL  1000   30.5   .224    8.1
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... son_p.html

Some years with 2 players reaching as much VORP as Wemby'26.
Note he has one of the lowest minute totals among these 35 postseasons.
Of the others, 15 were higher in all 3 of the 'advanced' stats shown; and 14 were lower in all 3.

Among centers, Jokic and Duncan, in their prime, look decisively better across the board. Dirk, Giannis, Davis are arguable.
Shaq, Garnett, Durant also close.
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