2011-12 eWins

[Mike G]

After 3 or 4 games per team, here is the first look at how players have done. Ranked by eWins projected to 66 games.

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e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
16.6  James,Lebron    Mia   37   .644   32.9   8.0   7.4   2.7   3.0  1.3   3.30
14.0  Bryant,Kobe     LAL   35   .563   35.1   6.7   6.7   1.6   4.8   .5   2.97
13.1  Durant,Kevin    Okl   39   .665   30.8   7.0   4.2    .9   3.3   .9   2.48
12.4  Howard,Dwight   Orl   38   .486   19.1  17.5   2.7   1.2   2.7  2.6   2.40
11.8  Love,Kevin      Min   38   .542   24.6  13.8   3.1   1.0   3.8   .0   2.27

10.8  Griffin,Blake   LAC   37   .560   26.2  10.3   1.8   1.0   2.0   .0   2.13
10.7  Lowry,Kyle      Hou   29   .630   21.3   8.6  11.4   3.3   3.3   .4   2.72
9.5   Granger,Danny   Ind   34   .457   26.0   6.7   3.1   2.1   3.2  1.3   2.02
9.3   Williams,Marvin Atl   26   .592   24.0  12.1   4.2   2.4    .5   .4   2.65
9.2   Gasol,Pau       LAL   36   .558   20.2   9.7   3.1    .8   1.8  2.3   1.87

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.2   Ginobili,Manu   SAS   26   .691   28.6   6.6   5.6   2.3   2.3   .8   2.59
9.1  Jennings,Brandon Mil   36   .567   25.7   2.6   6.0    .0   2.0   .3   1.86
9.0   Rose,Derrick    Chi   37   .606   21.4   4.0   9.5    .2   4.4   .2   1.79
8.9   Anthony,Carmelo NYK   35   .631   27.2   6.8   2.6    .7   3.8   .6   1.85
8.8   Lawson,Ty       Den   32   .698   24.9   4.0   3.7   4.5   1.9   .0   1.99

8.7  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   38   .517   21.1   6.6   3.2   1.3   1.6  1.2   1.68
8.4   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   32   .592   21.1  13.8   1.2    .8   3.4  2.0   1.91
8.4   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   33   .624   25.2   7.5   1.3    .6    .6   .8   1.90
8.4   Ellis,Monta     GSW   38   .474   22.3   2.4   7.3    .6   3.2   .3   1.62
8.2   Diaw,Boris      Cha   33   .515   13.3  12.3   7.6    .7   3.3  1.0   1.79

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.1   Hawes,Spencer   Phi   34   .654   12.4  13.4   5.1   1.8   2.8  1.9   1.72
8.0   Bargnani,Andrea Tor   35   .587   23.8   6.5   2.7    .4   2.5  1.0   1.70
8.0   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   37   .591   18.5   5.4   8.3   1.5   4.5   .0   1.60
8.0   Bogut,Andrew    Mil   35   .450   17.6  11.0   2.7   1.4   1.8  1.3   1.69
7.9   Randolph,Zach   Mem   34   .533   21.4  10.6   1.5   1.4   2.5   .3   1.71

7.9   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   31   .568   25.0   7.3   2.9   1.2   2.6   .3   1.86
7.9   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   35   .697   18.8   6.1   4.7   1.7   2.1  1.2   1.63
7.8   Wallace,Gerald  Por   36   .747   21.5   8.0   2.7    .7   2.7   .9   1.61
7.7   Landry,Carl     NOH   31   .520   23.5   9.6   1.2    .8   1.5   .4   1.80
7.6   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   35   .500   20.6   3.7   6.3   1.0   4.1  2.3   1.58

Already no slouches in the upper echelons.
NBA average is 1.00 eW per 484 minutes.
Right now some of the values are flaky: steals, turnovers, blocks, and shooting% aren't as important as normal.

[Crow]

Just 3 games for Marvin Williams against the 6th easiest strength of schedule but 3PTs, FTs and rebs are way above his career averages. Has it clicked him at age 25 or is it a short term trend?

Hawes and Diaw starting well, including on rebounding, in advance of next summer's free agency.

[Mike G]

Right -- these stats are not adjusted for strength of schedule. Tilted toward point differential. By midseason, schedules will be pretty close to even, excepting east-west imbalance.
I must have blinked at Lowry and missed Marvin W. He's always seemed like the weak link in Atlanta. Now he's the best player on a team with the pt-diff of a 63-3 mark.

[Mike G]

The season is 6.6% -- that is 1/15 -- completed.

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e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
16.8  James,Lebron    Mia   35   .641   33.2   8.7   7.3   2.5   2.9  1.2   3.49
13.4  Love,Kevin      Min   38   .579   26.3  14.3   2.6   1.0   3.1   .2   2.58
12.9  Durant,Kevin    Okl   36   .646   30.2   7.4   4.8   1.2   3.8   .9   2.61
12.5  Howard,Dwight   Orl   39   .509   18.6  17.2   2.3   1.1   2.8  2.6   2.36
11.2  Bryant,Kobe     LAL   35   .482   28.8   6.6   6.0   1.4   4.9   .3   2.37

11.1  Griffin,Blake   LAC   37   .571   26.1  10.4   2.4   1.0   2.7   .0   2.19
10.6  Anthony,Carmelo NYK   35   .606   28.3   7.0   3.8    .8   2.9   .5   2.23
10.4  Rondo,Rajon     Bos   36   .604   20.0   7.0   9.7   1.4   4.2   .0   2.11
10.3  Rose,Derrick    Chi   35   .600   24.2   3.9   9.5    .6   4.2   .6   2.18
10.1  Ginobili,Manu   SAS   26   .782   33.6   6.3   4.7   1.8   2.8   .7   2.90

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.5   Lowry,Kyle      Hou   32   .558   15.9   7.5  11.4   2.8   3.9   .5   2.15
9.3  Jennings,Brandon Mil   36   .567   26.2   2.6   5.4    .0   2.0   .3   1.90
9.2   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   34   .657   20.2   6.7   5.5   1.3   1.9  1.2   1.97
9.2   Bargnani,Andrea Tor   36   .582   24.6   7.0   2.4    .5   2.3   .7   1.85
9.0   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   32   .646   26.4   7.6   1.4    .5    .5   .6   2.06

9.0   Hawes,Spencer   Phi   33   .667   15.0  13.3   4.9   1.4   2.5  1.8   1.98
8.9   Lawson,Ty       Den   33   .637   22.1   3.7   6.7   3.1   2.4   .0   1.98
8.8   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   34   .521   22.5   3.7   6.9   1.3   4.1  2.2   1.90
8.7   Gasol,Pau       LAL   36   .584   20.6   9.1   2.3    .7   2.2  1.9   1.77
8.4  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   39   .494   20.0   6.9   2.9   1.2   1.6   .9   1.58

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.1   Williams,Lou    Phi   27   .618   29.1   3.4   4.8    .6   1.6   .0   2.19
8.1   Bosh,Chris      Mia   33   .595   21.2  10.2   2.2    .9   2.6  1.0   1.79
8.0   Bogut,Andrew    Mil   35   .450   17.0  11.1   2.6   1.4   1.7  1.3   1.69
8.0   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   31   .556   25.0   6.7   2.5   1.2   2.1   .2   1.86
7.7   Williams,Marvin Atl   25   .586   22.2  10.6   3.0   1.8    .4   .7   2.30

7.6   Deng,Luol       Chi   39   .535   18.1   7.5   2.7    .8   1.7   .9   1.44
7.5   Calderon,Jose   Tor   32   .662   15.8   4.9   9.1   1.1   2.0   .3   1.71
7.5   Blair,Dejuan    SAS   24   .596   27.9  11.6   1.6    .8   2.3   .0   2.31
7.5   Harden,James    Okl   31   .611   19.7   7.2   4.9    .7   1.1   .2   1.79
7.4   Paul,Chris      LAC   39   .549   14.8   2.6   9.0   2.4   2.4   .0   1.41

Marvin, Granger, Gasol, and Lowry are displaced in the top 10 by Carmelo, Rondo, Rose, and Ginobili.

[erivera7]

What a surprise. LeBron is first yet again.

[Mike G]

With the season 12% completed.

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e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
15.7  James,Lebron    Mia   36   .643   35.5   8.3   8.6   2.0   3.6  1.0   3.56
13.4  Howard,Dwight   Orl   39   .553   22.0  16.1   2.3   1.5   3.1  2.6   2.52
12.6  Love,Kevin      Min   39   .592   26.6  14.6   1.6    .9   3.5   .4   2.36
12.3  Bryant,Kobe     LAL   36   .511   32.0   6.9   5.4    .9   4.3   .3   2.52
12.2  Anthony,Carmelo NYK   35   .556   30.5   7.2   5.1   1.2   3.0   .6   2.53

11.5  Griffin,Blake   LAC   37   .574   26.8  11.3   2.5   1.2   3.0   .6   2.29
10.6  Durant,Kevin    Okl   36   .571   28.6   6.5   3.4   1.0   3.5  1.0   2.14
10.0  Rose,Derrick    Chi   36   .545   23.3   4.1   9.0    .9   3.8   .5   2.03
9.4   Hawes,Spencer   Phi   30   .638   19.1  12.6   4.7   1.1   1.9  2.1   2.26
9.3   Bargnani,Andrea Tor   36   .599   26.3   7.0   2.2    .4   2.1   .7   1.91

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.0   Bosh,Chris      Mia   35   .578   23.3   9.2   2.4   1.2   2.7  1.1   1.86
9.0   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   36   .544   16.9   5.9  10.9   1.8   4.2   .0   1.81
8.9   Smith,Josh      Atl   33   .471   18.7  10.9   3.8   1.5   2.3  2.1   1.99
8.6  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   37   .522   22.7   8.0   2.2    .8   1.8   .6   1.68
8.3   Gasol,Pau       LAL   36   .599   20.1   9.7   2.1    .8   2.3  1.8   1.71

8.1   Paul,Chris      LAC   37   .580   16.5   2.4  10.1   2.9   2.7   .0   1.61
8.0   Lawson,Ty       Den   33   .562   20.2   3.6   7.7   2.3   2.4   .1   1.79
8.0   Ellis,Monta     GSW   39   .497   23.6   2.7   6.5   1.3   3.2   .2   1.70
7.7   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   31   .601   23.7   9.1   1.2    .3    .3   .5   1.85
7.6   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   31   .525   23.9   6.4   3.3   1.3   2.1   .3   1.78

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.5   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   33   .548   17.9   6.7   5.0   2.1   2.4  1.2   1.66
7.5   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   30   .556   20.1  13.0   2.0    .5   2.5  1.5   1.85
7.4  Jennings,Brandon Mil   39   .490   20.3   3.3   4.9   1.6   2.5   .1   1.38
7.4   Monroe,Greg     Det   31   .592   20.7  11.4   2.7    .8   2.9   .7   1.75
7.3   Jefferson,Al    Uta   33   .494   21.6  10.0   1.5   1.3   1.3  1.5   1.88

7.2  Gallinari,Danilo Den   33   .561   20.0   6.3   3.1   2.1   1.7   .6   1.58
7.1   Parker,Tony     SAS   30   .472   19.3   3.2   9.0   1.1   2.0   .0   1.75
7.1   Gasol,Marc      Mem   36   .598   15.8  11.0   1.6   1.5   2.5  2.4   1.46
7.1   Irving,Kyrie    Cle   27   .508   22.3   5.9   7.9    .8   4.1  1.2   1.95
7.0   Calderon,Jose   Tor   35   .619   14.9   4.2   9.1    .8   1.6   .1   1.48

#31-40 : Westbrook, Jamison, Lou Williams, Horford, Boozer, Harden, Millsap, Garnett, Lowry, Bynum
#41-50 : Holiday, McGee, Nash, Wade, Augustin, Ray Allen, Amare', Deng, Varejao, Gay

It's fairly shocking to see Hawes at #9 (#7 per minute); he's also #8 in PER, 11th in Win Shares, #2 in per minute WS.
Bargnani just 20th in WS, 13th in PER.

[Crow]

Hawes and Bargnani at their career bests in many major stat categories. Showing strong APM too, though it is very early with very large average errors.

Mullens actually playing and doing well too at least on shooting and PER. Above average on WS/48.

Westbrook 31st overall in the league on e66? Must be benefiting from high minutes, high usage.
He is only 30th amongst just PGs over 20 minutes per game on PER and 40th in that group for Win Shares per 48.

[Mike G]

Westbrook may be one of the bigger decliners this year. I expected him to go 33 mpg @ 2.17 eW/484, for 9.9 eWins; at 1.57*33 mpg (*66/484), he's headed for 7.0 eW.

Of 48 PG's with >150 minutes, he ranks 11th in e484; after Rose, Lou Williams, Irving, Lowry, Rondo, Lawson, Parker, Sessions, Paul, and Nash; ahead of Chalmers, Calderon, Curry, DWilliams, 'Dre, Jennings, Holiday, Augustin ...

Of the 48, I rank only Lou W, Rose, and Irving as better scorers.
Better rebounders are just Lowry, Rondo, Sessions, and Irving.
He's 20th in assists and 10th in steals rates.
First in turnovers, edging DWill and Nash.

[Crow]

On e66 top 15, there is only one PG and one SG. With an equal distribution across positions one might expect 6.

There are voices out there saying it is a guard dominated league.

These 2 things do not agree.

But 8 of the next 15 on e66 are guards so I guess they agree more when taken that broader level of leaders. But guards are still underrepresented in the top 30, not overrepresented. With an equal distribution one might expect 12 in the top 30 but there were only 10 guards.

[Mike G]

But you can see 5 of the next 10 are guards -- 15 of 40; and 6 of the next 10, making 21 of 50 : over-representation.

I was meaning to do this anyway: % of minutes by position, eWins and eW/484 min.

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pos    Min     %Min    eWins   e484
C      8999    .157    20.5    1.10
PF    13805    .241    31.8    1.11
SF     9706    .169    17.0     .85
SG    11665    .203    20.5     .85
PG    13223    .230    29.2    1.07
                
C      8999    .157    20.5    1.10
F     23511    .410    48.8    1.00
G     24888    .434    49.7     .97
tot   57398   1.00    119.0    1.00

I haven't scrupulously double checked the position designations given by dougstats.com
Apparently only 'true' centers are called that, and some PF are playing more C; PF+C minutes are right at 40%.
Then, many intervals have 2 PG on the floor for a team, 3 guards, etc.
If an inordinate amount of talent resides in natural Guards, even if it's just by sheer numbers -- and this seems quite plausible -- then just by the trend of small lineups, we see G creating more than their share of wins.

[Crow]

I forgot to look at the top 50. 21 of 50 is the slightest of overrepresentation. Thanks for that and the by position summary.

Centers come out best on this metric, perhaps influenced largely by the full possession credit for defensive rebounds?
PGs also do well. Remind me what weight you give an assist? It is large right?

Position comparisons will be significantly affected by which boxscore metric is used and what weights they use.

RAPM has positional neutrality and completeness. No simple boxscore metric is complete (EZPM is a complete play by play metric). It is arguable how neutral each of them are.

But each metric flavor can yield insight. Especially when their results and weights are compared.

[xkonk]

But you can see 5 of the next 10 are guards -- 15 of 40; and 6 of the next 10, making 21 of 50 : over-representation.

50 players would represent 10 starting 5's, so we would expect 20 guards, right? Or are we talking about a different kind of over-representation?

Crow, what do you mean by 'complete'?

[Crow]

RAPM is aware of / considers all court action including team shot defense when present on the court. Its coverage is complete.

Simple boxscore metrics are incomplete in that they lack awareness & consideration of shot defense and either give all the credit to the defensive rebounder or ignore that aspect of defense.

Win Shares and Wins Produced attempt to add to the boxscore by tacking on team defensive adjustments but they are not specific to when a player is even on the court because the adjustments are not based on play by play.

[Mike G]

50 players would represent 10 starting 5's, so we would expect 20 guards, right? Or are we talking about a different kind of over-representation?

I'd replied to what Crow had written :

On e66 top 15, there is only one PG and one SG. ..
...guards are still underrepresented in the top 30 ... one might expect 12 in the top 30 but there were only 10 guards.

Also noting Westbrook listed at #31 -- and now that I look, there are Rose and Rondo (2 PG) in the top 15; Paul, Lawson, Ellis at #16-18 ...
So I was being a bit facetious.

Should PGs seem to be just as effective as SGs, and SF just as good as PF?
Using the 150 minute cutoff still (not updated yet today), I get these production averages (per36) by position

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pos    Min   Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
PG    28.9   .521   15.7   3.8   6.3   1.4   2.8   .3   1.13
SG    26.8   .515   15.7   4.2   3.1   1.2   2.1   .4    .86
SF    28.8   .501   15.6   6.1   2.7   1.2   2.0   .7   1.01
PF    28.3   .509   15.8   9.3   1.8   1.1   2.0   .9   1.19
C     27.5   .547   14.7  10.6   1.5   1.0   2.1  1.5   1.22
                           
type   Min   Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
point 28.9   .521   15.7   3.8   6.3   1.4   2.8   .3   1.13
wings 27.8   .508   15.7   5.2   2.9   1.2   2.0   .5    .94
bigs  27.9   .528   15.3   9.9   1.6   1.0   2.1  1.2   1.21

Qualifying were 30 C and SF, and 43-48 at the other positions.
Point guards score just as well as SG, and they assist twice as much.
PF's score same as SF and rebound 50% more.

Shown as wings are the average of SG and SF. Bigs are PF and C, also weighed equally.

[Mike G]

With 88 points in 2 games, Kobe is back solidly at #2
Season is 15.5% over.

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e66     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
15.0  James,Lebron    Mia   38   .609   32.7   8.8   7.9   2.0   3.8   .8   3.23
14.0  Bryant,Kobe     LAL   37   .530   35.3   6.3   5.2   1.0   3.8   .4   2.79
12.1  Anthony,Carmelo NYK   36   .537   30.2   7.0   5.4   1.4   3.5   .5   2.48
11.8  Love,Kevin      Min   39   .545   23.8  14.3   1.8    .9   2.7   .5   2.20
11.5  Howard,Dwight   Orl   37   .542   20.1  15.5   2.5   1.3   3.1  2.2   2.28

11.3  Durant,Kevin    Okl   36   .582   28.4   7.6   4.0    .9   3.6  1.1   2.30
10.8  Griffin,Blake   LAC   37   .541   24.6  11.6   2.4   1.1   2.8   .5   2.12
10.3  Rose,Derrick    Chi   36   .562   25.8   3.7   9.2    .8   3.6   .6   2.26
9.5  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   37   .527   23.5   8.1   2.6   1.2   1.6   .6   1.89
9.2   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   36   .544   18.0   5.6  10.6   1.9   4.2   .0   1.86

e66     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.0   Smith,Josh      Atl   33   .496   19.8  10.3   3.8   1.6   2.4  1.8   2.01
8.8   Bargnani,Andrea Tor   35   .568   25.8   7.2   1.9    .3   2.1   .6   1.83
8.6   Paul,Chris      LAC   37   .576   17.6   3.1   9.2   2.7   2.4   .0   1.70
8.3   Gasol,Pau       LAL   37   .585   19.0  10.2   2.1    .7   2.4  1.4   1.63
8.1   Bosh,Chris      Mia   36   .552   21.6   8.7   2.0   1.0   2.8  1.1   1.62

8.0   Jefferson,Al    Uta   34   .505   21.2  10.2   1.6   1.1   1.3  1.6   1.92
8.0   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   31   .593   23.1   9.8   1.2    .8    .5   .4   1.92
7.9  Westbrook,Russel Okl   33   .485   22.2   5.4   6.9   1.8   4.1   .2   1.78
7.9   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   32   .547   23.7   7.0   3.3   1.2   2.2   .5   1.84
7.8   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   29   .557   20.7  12.7   2.3    .5   2.7  1.5   1.95

e66     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.6   Ellis,Monta     GSW   40   .485   23.0   2.7   6.2   1.5   3.8   .3   1.57
7.4   Gasol,Marc      Mem   37   .536   14.0  10.7   1.9   1.5   2.1  2.4   1.44
7.3   Millsap,Paul    Uta   29   .563   19.9  10.5   2.2   2.2   1.3   .8   1.89
7.2   Monroe,Greg     Det   31   .599   19.5  11.5   2.9    .8   2.6   .6   1.71
7.2  Gallinari,Danilo Den   34   .582   19.9   5.9   3.3   2.0   1.9   .6   1.57

7.1   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   33   .556   18.4   6.5   4.4   2.0   2.5   .8   1.59
7.1   Hawes,Spencer   Phi   28   .617   18.1  11.7   4.4    .9   1.9  2.1   2.07
7.1   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   36   .485   22.7   4.3   6.0   2.0   3.3  2.1   1.99
7.0   Parker,Tony     SAS   31   .483   19.1   3.4   8.5   1.0   2.3   .0   1.64
7.0   Calderon,Jose   Tor   35   .593   14.6   4.4   9.2    .9   1.7   .1   1.48

31-40 -- Lawson, Garnett, Irving, Amare', Jennings, Bynum, Jamison, Lowry, Boozer, Horford
41-50 -- Deng, Duncan, Nash, Gortat, Harden, Holiday, Cousins, G Wallace, McGee, David West
51-60 -- Evans, T Chandler, Lou Williams, Jack, Varejao, Joe Johnson, Deron Williams, Brand, Allen, Turkoglu