2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder

[Mike G]

Here's a preview ranking players by relative impact (eWins per game) based on the first 2 rounds

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eW/G   rounds 1-2       tm    G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.207   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   10   38   .601   31.8   9.2   3.1   2.1   .6   2.6   .5   2.61
.176   Durant,Kevin    Okl   12   42   .579   26.7   6.9   2.3   2.6   .7   1.7   .9   2.09
.167  Westbrook,Russel Okl   12   37   .499   24.5   5.7   8.8   3.4  1.3   4.5   .4   2.25
.121   Terry,Jason     Dal   10   32   .642   26.0   2.5   4.8   1.7  1.2   1.6   .2   1.80
.105   Kidd,Jason      Dal   10   34   .551   12.9   5.3   9.7   2.4  1.8   2.7   .5   1.50

.092   Harden,James    Okl   12   31   .602   16.1   6.0   4.9   3.1  1.4   1.9  1.1   1.47
.061   Marion,Shawn    Dal   10   31   .471   11.6   8.7   3.4   2.6  1.0   2.0   .9    .94
.059   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   12   29   .507   11.0  10.2    .4   5.0   .3   1.6  4.6   1.01
.046   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   10   30   .629    9.7  12.4    .4   4.1   .2    .9   .9    .75
.042   Barea,JJ        Dal   10   18   .461   17.0   2.7   9.0   2.3   .2   2.1   .0   1.13

eW/G   rounds 1-2       tm    G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.034   Maynor,Eric     Okl   12   13   .483   14.4   3.8   8.4   2.0  1.8   2.7   .0   1.32
.031   Stojakovic,Peja Dal   10   24   .611   16.2   3.4    .4   2.0  1.0    .3   .1    .61
.025   Collison,Nick   Okl   12   23   .612    9.0   8.0   1.1   4.9  1.1    .8  1.0    .55
.013   Brewer,Corey    Dal    3    4   .500   18.4   2.6   3.3   4.8  7.2   2.4   .0   1.34
.010   Haywood,Brendan Dal   10   17   .467    5.2  12.2    .8   5.5   .2   2.2  2.4    .27

.004   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   12   20   .489    7.4   5.9   1.7   2.2  1.4   2.0   .3    .09
.002   Cook,Daequan    Okl   12   12   .507    9.7   6.2    .3   2.9   .7   1.7   .0    .07
.002   Mohammed,Nazr   Okl   12   12   .407    6.5   7.4    .0   6.6  1.0   1.2  1.5    .08
-.001 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   10   13   .487    9.5   2.3   3.7   5.0   .9   2.1   .3   -.03
-.007 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   12   29   .454    5.1   8.7    .8   5.0   .3   2.0   .9   -.12

Dallas players' eW/G sum to .635 and Okl to .553; so something's seriously got to give. Dirk, Terry, and Barea?
Scaled to 1 eW total per game, its Dal .53 - .47 Okl . Mavs in 7.

[Crow]

I noticed EZPM, WinShares, Wins Produced and traditional Adjusted +/- are all much more favorable to Nick Collison in the playoffs than eW/G.

[Mike G]

I noticed EZPM Evan said it was Collison and Harden carrying the Thunder.
In the last series, I estimate just .31 of Collison's points unassisted. This may be low, as he seemed to get several putbacks.
Also estimate just 50% of his opponents being starters. If he'd started 7 games, played the same minutes with the same stats, his e480 jumps from .66 to .78 . This is well in the range of above-average backup player, which he is.

Some of those stats love guys with high TS% and low TO, even if they almost never touch the ball. Collison works well here because the Thunder always have 2-3 very creative players on the floor.

Thanks to the Memphis series, most stats seem to say his playoffs are better than his regular season, so far.

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Collison   e480   PER   ws48
Reg. Sea.  .22   10.8   .113
Playoffs   .55   13.5   .149

eWins says he's gone from marginal to decent. PER says replacement level to more than decent. WS from good to nearly great.

[Mike G]

Mavs 1 , Thunder 0
score 121 - 112
Pythagorean win distribution : .74 - .26
eWins .62 - .38

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.35   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   41   .889   57.0   6.7   3.5   2.7   .0   1.8  3.6   4.15
.24   Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .727   37.7   9.4   4.0   2.6   .9   2.6  1.7   2.72
.10   Barea,Jose_Juan Dal   16   .778   52.6   7.6   2.6    .0   .0   4.1   .0   3.10
.07   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .667   23.8   1.3   2.8   4.2   .0   1.1  1.1   1.02
.07   Marion,Shawn    Dal   27   .524   13.7  11.7   5.5   8.1  1.3   2.7  1.3   1.17

.06   Kidd,Jason      Dal   35   .500    2.8   3.9  15.2   3.1  3.1   3.1   .0    .79
.05   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   31   .680   14.8   9.4    .0   5.9  1.2    .0   .0    .74
.03   Harden,James    Okl   36   .632    9.6   2.6   4.3   3.9  1.0    .0  1.0    .45
.03  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   28   .700    8.0   8.7   2.7   2.6  1.3    .0   .0    .54
.03   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   19  1.500   17.4   2.5   3.9   7.5  3.8   1.9   .0    .76

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02  Westbrook,Russel Okl   38   .417   15.4   3.9   3.2   1.9  1.0   3.9   .0    .29
.02   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   25   .500    3.2  14.4    .0   5.8   .0   1.4  2.9    .40
.00   Cook,Daequan    Okl    9   .750   16.2    .0    .0   3.4   .0    .0   .0    .12
.00   Mohammed,Nazr   Okl    5   .000     .0  23.6    .0    .0   .0   5.9   .0    .02
.00   Brewer,Corey    Dal    5   .500   11.8    .0    .0   5.9  5.9   5.9   .0   -.44

-.01   Maynor,Eric    Okl   10   .000     .0   8.3   6.7   6.2   .0   3.1   .0   -.25
-.01   Collison,Nick  Okl   17   .500    6.9  12.9   2.1   7.7   .0   5.8   .0   -.24
-.01  Stojakovic,Peja Dal   21   .188    1.6   4.0   2.3    .0  1.6    .0   .0   -.20
-.01   Robinson,Nate  Okl    6   .000     .0    .0    .0    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.96
-.02 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   14   .375    4.2    .0    .0  10.0  2.5    .0   .0   -.68
-.02  Haywood,Brendan Dal   24   .750    3.6   5.3    .0   4.2   .0    .0   .0   -.43

Effective shooting% Dal .665 - .599 Okl
Reb Dal 35 - 33 Okl

[Mike G]

Mavs 1 , Thunder 1
avg score Dal 110.5 - 109 Okl
Pythagorean Dal 1.09 - .91 Okl
eWins 1.05 - .95

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.50   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   41   .786   42.4   6.0   3.9   2.3   .0   2.3  1.8   2.95
.33   Durant,Kevin    Okl   43   .615   27.5   5.8   4.4   3.0   .8   2.5  1.3   1.85
.22   Harden,James    Okl   34   .778   19.8   5.8   4.6   3.1  1.5    .0   .5   1.57
.19   Kidd,Jason      Dal   36   .571    8.1   5.0  11.1   2.1  4.1   2.1   .0   1.30
.19   Barea,Jose_Juan Dal   16   .744   39.3   7.6   6.0   1.0   .0   2.1   .0   2.88

.11   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   32   .563    9.3  14.7    .7   3.5   .0   1.2  1.2    .82
.10  Westbrook,Russel Okl   33   .463   19.0   4.2   4.8   1.7   .6   4.5   .0    .75
.10   Marion,Shawn    Dal   26   .408   11.1  13.1   2.7   5.8   .7   2.2   .7    .91
.07   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   30   .657   13.8   9.4    .0   5.7   .6   1.3   .0    .58
.07   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   19   .833   11.3   7.4   2.3   5.0  3.0   1.0  1.0    .89

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   26   .786    9.1   8.1   3.3   4.3   .7   2.2   .7    .47
.04   Collison,Nick   Okl   22   .625    8.3  11.8   2.7   7.9   .8   3.9  1.6    .47
.04   Maynor,Eric     Okl   15   .565   13.6   5.6   3.9   3.3   .0   1.1   .0    .65
.04   Cook,Daequan    Okl   13  1.000   21.5   1.7    .0   2.6   .0    .0   .0    .70
.03   Terry,Jason     Dal   31   .571   16.9    .7   2.0   4.5   .0   2.2   .6    .26

-.01  Stojakovic,Peja Dal   20   .393    6.5   3.1   1.0    .0  1.7   1.7   .8   -.07
-.01  Haywood,Brendan Dal   16   .833    5.5   5.1    .0   7.3   .0    .0  1.0   -.22
-.05 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   21   .364    4.5   1.1    .0   7.2  1.8    .9   .0   -.60

Eff% Okl .618 - .604 Dal
Reb/G Okl 36.5 - 35 Dal
TO Okl 13.5 - 12 Dal

[Mike G]

Mavs 2 , Thunder 1
avg score 104.7 - 101.7
Pythagorean 1.79 - 1.21
eWins 1.64 - 1.36

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.58   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   39   .664   36.2   5.4   3.2   1.9    .0   3.7  1.2   2.37
.55   Durant,Kevin    Okl   44   .553   23.8   7.5   4.3   2.7   1.1   1.9  1.4   2.01
.37   Kidd,Jason      Dal   36   .558   10.4   5.5  10.3   2.4   4.1   2.0   .0   1.65
.27   Barea,Jose_Juan Dal   15   .679   33.6   6.9   7.7   4.5    .0   2.2   .0   2.85
.24   Harden,James    Okl   35   .627   13.8   7.2   3.4   2.7   1.4    .7   .3   1.13

.22  Westbrook,Russel Okl   36   .500   24.1   3.2   4.2   2.7   1.0   5.1   .0    .99
.21   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   33   .619    8.9  15.4    .4   3.7    .7    .7  1.1   1.01
.19   Marion,Shawn    Dal   30   .507   13.8   9.1   2.0   5.4   1.2   1.2  1.2   1.02
.13   Collison,Nick   Okl   22   .760   12.0  11.0   2.3   6.7   1.6   2.6  2.1    .95
.12   Terry,Jason     Dal   31   .523   16.4   0.9   4.0   3.8    .8   1.5   .4    .62

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   28   .542   11.4  10.1    .0   4.0    .4    .9  1.3    .66
.09   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   19   .778   10.1   7.9   1.5   3.3   2.7   1.3   .7    .73
.02  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   27   .682    7.4   7.5   2.0   3.2    .5   2.3  1.4    .12
.02   Maynor,Eric     Okl   12   .520   11.8   4.5   3.2   2.9    .0   1.9   .0    .26
.01   Stojakovic,Peja Dal   19   .429    8.5   4.3   1.5    .6   1.2   1.8   .6    .06

-.02  Cook,Daequan    Okl   13   .778   11.3   1.0    .0   4.4    .0    .0   .0   -.22
-.03  Haywood,Brendan Dal   14   .529    5.7   5.7    .0   6.5    .0    .8  1.6   -.34
-.07 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   21   .471    6.6    .7    .0   5.9   1.8    .6   .0   -.55

effective shooting% Dal .573 - .568 Okl
rebounds per game Okl 39.3 - 35.7 Dal
turnovers Okl 13.7 - 12.0 Dal

[Mike G]

Mavs 3 , Thunder 1
avg score 106.5 - 102.5
Pythagorean 2.50 - 1.50
eWins 2.25 - 1.75

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.93   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   41   .682   38.6   5.3   3.1   1.8   .0   3.6   .9   2.75
.73   Durant,Kevin    Okl   45   .549   23.7   8.9   3.7   2.5   .8   3.3  1.2   1.94
.59   Kidd,Jason      Dal   37   .622   12.8   5.5   9.1   2.0  4.0   2.2   .0   1.89
.27   Harden,James    Okl   32   .620   13.9   7.7   2.9   3.8  1.4   1.6   .3   1.02
.26   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   34   .608    8.0  14.0    .3   3.8  1.1    .5   .8    .93

.25   Barea,Jose_Juan Dal   16   .581   22.9   5.8   5.6   3.0   .5   1.5   .0   1.95
.24  Westbrook,Russel Okl   38   .463   19.2   4.5   4.8   3.2  1.5   5.2   .0    .78
.23   Marion,Shawn    Dal   32   .495   10.9   7.7   1.6   4.9  2.0    .9  1.1    .87
.21   Collison,Nick   Okl   25   .756   13.3   9.6   2.3   6.4  1.3   2.0  1.7   1.04
.17   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   33   .549   12.4   9.3    .0   3.9   .3   1.7  2.2    .64

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.17   Terry,Jason     Dal   34   .508   15.4   2.1   2.9   3.6  1.5   1.8   .3    .61
.17   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   22   .684   11.3   6.6   1.2   3.3  2.9    .8   .8    .93
.01   Maynor,Eric     Okl   12   .455    7.9   3.6   3.8   1.9   .6   1.3   .0    .10
.01   Haywood,Brendan Dal   15   .621    9.2   5.4    .6   5.1   .0    .5  1.5    .07
.01  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   27   .636    7.6   6.6   2.0   3.0   .3   2.0  1.3    .04

-.04   Cook,Daequan   Okl   11   .778    9.8   0.7    .0   3.3   .0    .0   .0   -.41
-.05  Stojakovic,Peja Dal   18   .393    6.8   3.5   2.0   1.3   .9   2.2   .4   -.32
-.14 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   19   .432    5.8    .5    .0   6.0  1.4    .9   .0   -.85

Eff% - Dal .569 - .553 Okl
Reb/48 - Okl 42.2 - 34.1 Dal
TO - Okl 16.5 - 12.3 Dal

[Mike G]

Game by game eWins estimates, after 4 games.

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eWins  Dallas             1     2     3     4
.93   Nowitzki,Dirk      .35   .15   .08   .35
.59   Kidd,Jason         .06   .13   .18   .22
.26   Chandler,Tyson     .02   .09   .10   .05
.25   Barea,Jose_Juan    .10   .09   .08  -.02
.23   Marion,Shawn       .07   .03   .09   .04
.17   Terry,Jason        .07  -.04   .09   .05

eWins  Oklahoma           1     2     3     4
.73   Durant,Kevin       .24   .09   .22   .18
.27   Harden,James       .03   .19   .02   .03
.24   Westbrook,Russell  .02   .08   .12   .02
.21   Collison,Nick     -.01   .05   .09   .08
.17   Ibaka,Serge        .05   .02   .04   .06
.17   Sefolosha,Thabo    .03   .04   .02   .08

Through 3 games, the only players picking up at least .08 eW in each game were Dirk, Durant, and Barea.
Two game balls for Dirk, one for Harden. Durant led game 3, but Kidd led the winners.
Kidd averaged 1.7 steals in the season, and he's getting 4 per game in this series. Career 2.0

[Statman]

I'll post my playoff ratings again after this Miami/Chicago series is done - we'll see how they compare.

[Mike G]

Mavs 4 , Thunder 1
avg score 105.2 - 101.2
Pythagorean wins 3.13 - 1.87
eWins 2.82 - 2.18

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.14  Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   41   .679   38.3   5.8   2.4   1.6    .4   3.8   .7   2.69
.83   Durant,Kevin    Okl   45   .541   22.9   8.5   3.2   2.6   1.0   3.1  1.1   1.77
.62   Kidd,Jason      Dal   37   .545    9.9   5.8   9.6   1.6   3.4   2.0   .0   1.63
.46   Harden,James    Okl   32   .649   17.5   7.1   3.5   3.2   1.3   1.7   .2   1.37
.45  Westbrook,Russel Okl   39   .466   20.6   5.0   4.5   2.8   1.5   4.6   .2   1.10

.43   Marion,Shawn    Dal   34   .538   14.5   7.6   2.0   3.9   1.8   1.1  1.5   1.22
.39   Barea,Jose_Juan Dal   17   .570   23.6   5.9   6.3   2.3    .8   1.1   .0   2.25
.32   Collison,Nick   Okl   27   .729   13.2  10.1   1.9   6.0   1.5   1.7  1.7   1.12
.28   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   32   .588    8.6  13.6    .3   4.6    .9    .9  1.1    .85
.15   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .510   14.9   1.9   2.3   3.8   1.5   1.9   .2    .43

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   20   .684    9.6   6.4   1.0   3.6   2.5    .7  1.1    .68
.13   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   29   .505   10.5   9.0    .0   4.6    .3   1.5  2.3    .42
.04   Haywood,Brendan Dal   15   .676   11.2   5.5    .5   5.8    .0    .4  1.2    .24
-.03  Stojakovic,Peja Dal   16   .391    6.8   3.5   2.2   1.2   1.2   1.9   .4   -.19
-.03 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   27   .568    5.6   7.5   1.8   3.0    .3   2.2  1.4   -.12

-.03  Maynor,Eric     Okl   14   .444    7.5   3.0   3.1   3.2    .5   1.8   .0   -.24
-.04  Cook,Daequan    Okl   10   .778    9.0   1.4    .0   3.1    .0    .0   .0   -.39
-.19 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   20   .333    3.6   1.2    .0   5.0   1.4    .7   .0   -.90

Dallas shot .559 to .544 for Oklahoma.
Rebounds Okl 43.5 - 36.0 Dal
TO - Okl 15.8 - 12.2 Dal