bchaikin wrote:
why does vince carter rate so high in this version, or any version, of APM?...
why does matt bonner rate so high in this version, or any version, of APM?...
are these not legitimate questions to ask?...
Those are legitimate questons. And that has indeed not much to do with sampling errors.
Let us take a look at Carter. Carter is big for a SG, he does not have problems to compete with any kind of other SG. That helps his defense, especially when guards are trying to post him up. Carter is one of the best in terms of defending the post-up. Carter has still long arms and is pretty quick on his feet. He can cover ground and that helps to defend shots at the perimeter. His opponents does not have an easy way to get by Carter, Carter stays in front of him and that forces more contested shots. Compare Carter and Bryant for example in terms of closing out on a 3pt shooter, Carter is better at that. It is also the case that Carter can defend the p&r pretty well. In fact the ball handler is more often in trouble. Overall Carter's defensive abilities and his size is causing a clear positive impact on the defensive end. Tougher shots for the opponents with a clearly lower conversation rate. That explains Carter's positive defensive RAPM. The value comes mainly from him being matched up with SG. When he plays SF, his quickness in comparison helps to limit drives to the basket. But he also doesn't have the size advantage anymore, which takes value away.
His value on offense comes from shooting, passing and from attacking the basket. His shooting range helps spreading the floor. Especially in comparison to Marion at SF, the Mavericks with Carter are becoming a much better offensive team while Carter plays the SF spot. The floor spreading is not just seen by clearly better 3pt shooting, but opens up the middle also for Nowitzki and makes it easier to create those midrange shots. Carter's passing helps to limit turnovers, provide better ball movement, which overall leads to a better team offensive efficiency.
No idea, but those things seem to me pretty obvious when watching the games. RAPM now can quantify the effect and we can also check the various other On/Off Court numbers in order to learn from them or backing up things we see.
Also, one of the biggest mistakes by Carlisle in the playoff series was not using Carter as SG and instead trying to let Terry/West defend Harden. Harden has much bigger problems with bigger guards, while Carter is also capable of defending the p&r ball handler really well. No idea what the thought process was behind all that, but I'm pretty sure that this playoff series could have ended much different, if the Mavericks would have used their most successful lineup. West-Carter-Marion-Nowitzki-Haywood would have been the best defensive lineup against Westbrook-Harden-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins. Offensively it would have meant going through Nowitzki in each possession, but he can handle that. Using lineups with Terry/West against Westbrook/Harden took the advantage of the Mavericks (size) completely out. Not a good decision at all, and I would really like to get an explanation why Carlisle didn't use his size advantage.
For Bonner we see another effect by floor spreading and 3pt shooting from a big. Such stretch PF are messing up the opponents defensive rotations and help defense, because very often the help is provided by the bigger and more agile players like Garnett, Ibaka, etc. pp. Those players can now choose to stay on the perimeter with a guy like Bonner and thus are not available for their usual help defense or they can leave Bonner open and risk a open 3pt, because the rotation/help brought them too far away from Bonner in order to close out in time.
Players like Bonner will also not become defensive liabilities that easily, because such players tend to reduce the turnover rate for the team, which means less fast break opportunities for the opponents, and they also are set to go back on defense quickly, instead of crashing the offensive board. Such behaviour leads again to less "easy basket" opportunties, either due to the first or secondary breaks. And while they are not good in terms of halfcourt defense, they are still big enough to bother their opponents. Bonner for example was still a pretty good defender against Dirk Nowitzki, because he does not go for every fake, stays on the ground and tries to defend the position much more than the shot. With the given set of rules, that is the best way to defend. The shot defense becomes less important, because challenging the shot can too easily result into a foul and free throws. When a player defends the position alone, he not only forces his opponent to a location from which a successful shot is less likely, but is also in a better position for the defensive rebound. Well, while Bonner is not great, his way to act on defense does not become a negative impact per possession. And as we all know basketball is decided by the average efficiency, not by the way the efficiency is achieved.
I hope that helps to clear things up in regard to those two players.
Regarding the floor spreading and the effect, two impressive examples we can use: Vladimir Radmanovic instead of Ariza playing for the Lakers in 2008. The spacing with Radmanovic in the TPO and in p&r situations is so much better and opens up opportunties for Bryant and Gasol.
Last season on the Mavericks, watch how Barea plays completely different with and without Nowitzki on the court. With Nowitzki he has wasy more room to go to the basket, without him he takes far more contested long shots.
Those are things not captured by the boxscore, but can be seen in the +/- based analysis.
Mike G wrote:
The list of consistently great RAPM over the last 4 seasons --
(1) LeBron (2) Bonner (3) Garnett (4) Wade (5) Howard (6) Dirk (7) Duncan (8) Paul
-- provided by YaoPau, is pretty good, but lacking Kobe, Gasol, Durant, while including Bonner at #2 ... it's indeed a head scratcher.
No head scratcher at all, because that is not a list of players perceived as the "best", but players helping the most per possession in their respective roles. Something most people gets confused, because they think a ranking is always meant to say who is the overall best.