2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia

[Mike G]

Heat 3, Celtics 3
Avg score: Mia 96.3 - 92.8 Bos
Pyth wins: 3.72 - 2.28; eWins 3.36 - 2.64

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.36  James,Lebron   Mia   46  .581   32.3  10.0   3.8    .9   2.8  1.1   2.39
.94   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   45  .530   17.5   5.6   9.5   1.6   3.2   .0   1.65
.72   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   42  .502   19.2   5.6   5.0   1.3   2.7  1.4   1.37
.65   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   37  .515   20.5  10.8   1.3    .7   2.2  1.7   1.43
.44   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   26  .468    8.3  15.6   2.2    .7   1.2   .5   1.38

.39   Chalmers,Mario Mia   39  .514   12.3   3.2   4.7   1.1   1.6   .2    .80
.31   Bass,Brandon   Bos   30  .520   11.2   7.8   1.3    .8    .8   .4    .83
.28   Pierce,Paul    Bos   40  .425   14.5   4.6   2.7   1.4   2.3   .6    .57
.17   Allen,Ray      Bos   40  .500    9.8   4.5    .7    .9    .8   .3    .33
.16   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    6  .857   16.9  12.1   1.0    .9    .0   .0   2.31

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Turiaf,Ronny   Mia    6  .750   13.0  11.6    .0    .0   2.0  2.0   1.28
.09   Dooling,Keyon  Bos   15  .735   12.5   2.5   1.2    .8    .8   .4    .51
.09  Daniels,Marquis Bos    8  .667   16.8   4.5    .7    .7    .0   .0    .96
.08   Bosh,Chris     Mia    7  .432   11.7  12.0   1.0    .0   1.6  2.4    .96
.08   Anthony,Joel   Mia   12  .611    6.3   6.6    .6    .0    .5  1.4    .55

.07   Miller,Mike    Mia   14  .508   12.1   7.1    .9    .4   1.5   .0    .41
.07   Battier,Shane  Mia   38  .463    5.7   3.7   2.4    .6   1.0   .8    .15
.04   Jones,James    Mia   11  .576   10.7   3.5    .6   1.0   1.0   .0    .29
.00   Cole,Norris    Mia    8  .304    3.4    .8   5.0   2.1   1.4   .0   -.01
-.05 Pietrus,Mickael Bos   23  .404    4.2   4.6    .0   1.0    .7   .5   -.19

shooting: Mia .525 - .506 Bos
rebounds: Mia 41.1 - 37.2 Bos
turnovers: Bos 11.3 - 12.3 Mia

[Mike G]

Miami Heat 4, Boston Celtics 3
Average score: Mia 97.0 - 92.1 Bos
Pythagorean wins: 4.65 - 2.35; eWins 4.08 - 2.92

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.57  James,Lebron   Mia   46  .573   31.6  10.2   3.7    .9   2.7  1.0   2.34
1.10  Rondo,Rajon    Bos   45  .521   17.2   6.1  10.0   1.5   3.1   .0   1.67
.89   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   42  .508   19.9   5.7   5.4   1.2   2.8  1.2   1.44
.71   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   36  .517   19.6  10.5   1.4    .7   2.3  1.4   1.34
.51   Chalmers,Mario Mia   38  .532   12.4   3.5   5.5   1.1   1.6   .1    .92

.49   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   27  .494    8.2  14.1   1.9    .7   1.1   .4   1.23
.41   Bass,Brandon   Bos   31  .566   12.2   7.3   1.1   1.3    .8   .3    .91
.32   Pierce,Paul    Bos   40  .430   14.5   4.5   2.4   1.3   2.2   .7    .55
.24   Bosh,Chris     Mia   10  .614   19.4  11.5    .6    .5   1.9  1.9   1.57
.18   Allen,Ray      Bos   40  .519   10.0   4.3    .7   1.0    .9   .3    .31

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    5  .857   15.5  11.6    .9    .9    .9   .0   1.92
.12   Battier,Shane  Mia   38  .500    6.5   3.4   2.3   1.0   1.0   .8    .23
.09   Turiaf,Ronny   Mia    5  .750   12.4  11.7    .0    .0   2.0  2.0   1.25
.08   Anthony,Joel   Mia   10  .611    6.0   6.8    .6    .0    .5  1.5    .56
.08  Daniels,Marquis Bos    7  .667   15.3   4.5    .7    .7    .0   .0    .79

.05   Dooling,Keyon  Bos   13  .694   10.1   2.4   1.2    .7    .7   .4    .24
.05   Hollins,Ryan   Bos    4  1.00   11.3   3.8   2.5    .0   1.1  1.1    .78
.04   Miller,Mike    Mia   13  .477   10.6   6.9    .9    .4   1.5   .0    .23
.02   Jones,James    Mia   10  .543    9.2   3.9    .6   1.0   1.0   .0    .17
.00   Cole,Norris    Mia    7  .304    3.4    .8   5.0   2.0   1.3   .0   -.01
-.10 Pietrus,Mickael Bos   23  .375    3.2   4.5    .0   1.1    .9   .4   -.31

Effective Shooting: Mia .535 - .509 Bos
Rebounds per game: Mia 40.6 - 36.6 Bos
Turnovers per game: Bos 11.6 - 12.4 Mia

[huevonkiller]

Here's a conditional prediction that's way, way out there. Should Boston clinch in game six in a competitive game, with Bosh having a non-factor, tepid kind of performance (reflecting "core" weakness) and LBJ not having absolutely the best individual performance of his career, there will be hardly a mention in the post-game reporting of the influence and relevance of Bosh's diminished capacity. All we will hear about is psychodrama, how the outcome proves James' ultimate lack of greatness, blah, blah, blah...

Blech.

Well you won't have to worry about this anymore. Consider this a victory for advanced basketball statistics. I love seeing the "good guy" win.

[Mike G]

The Celtics this year had the lowest known Offensive Rebounding % ever -- 19.7
Last year's Celts are the 3rd worst ever.

The Heat this year were about avg in ORb% (26.6) and 10th in DRb% (73.9)
Not surprisingly, Miami collected .526 of the rebounds in the series: 26% of potential OReb and 78% DReb.
The Celts actually did a bit better than expected on the offensive boards, at 22%.
The difference was in shooting: Pierce hit 43% and Ray Allen 52%, respectively some .140 and .090 below their season accuracies.

EDIT: Actually, by SRS the Heat should have won by 4.2 PPG, and their avg margin was 4.9 -- with home court in 4 of 7 games.
But playing without Bosh for most of the series, they had to gain an advantage somewhere, and it was in shutting down Pierce, mostly.

[Crow]

How many of the series did Miami win the offensive glass? I am going to be lazy and ask instead of looking it up this time.

[Mike G]

In the first 2 Boston wins, they also won the offensive boards.

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gm   score      ORb%    Minutes by
#   Mia Bos   Mia Bos  Haslem  Bosh
1    93  79    36  22     15    0  
2   115 111    28  22     29    0

3    91 101    16  32     16    0
4    91  93    20  25     36    0
5    90  94    29  20     33   14

6    98  79    27  17     23   28
7   101  88    26  19     38   31

Miami began to dominate the glass and the series when Bosh returned. But their success was even more closely related to combined Bosh+Haslem minutes (other than game 1)

[huevonkiller]

I would attribute Game 6's lopsided nature to just one player. Haslem had very pedestrian numbers and KG did not seem perturbed by him throughout the series. Bosh did alter a few of KG's shots in Game 6, but that's about it.

I will give Chris credit for Game 7, he was definitely the difference. Haslem had a poor rebounding rate in Game 7 though.