APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
I would strongly suggest that you use actual 2010-11 results for rookies, otherwise the contest will depend heavily on who has the best rookie predictions, which I don't think is the intent here.
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
I don't think that's really possible, because we are predicting team efficiencies/lineup efficiencies (not individual anythings). Since we are not predicting individual numbers, I think we'd best use a set value for the rookies.DLew wrote:I would strongly suggest that you use actual 2010-11 results for rookies, otherwise the contest will depend heavily on who has the best rookie predictions, which I don't think is the intent here.
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
What's the average RAPM value for rookies for 2009-2010? I'm fine with using that.
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
I just did a small test:
which rating for unknown players does best when predicting 08 with 07, 09 with 08 and 10 with 09.
Result was -1.5/-1.5 (off/def) for 08, -0.5/-0.5 for 09, -0.5/-0.5 for 10.
I'll use -0.8 (the average) for both offense and defense then. If someone wants to use something different that's fine too, as long as you didn't optimize it on '11
I'll post results in a couple of minutes
which rating for unknown players does best when predicting 08 with 07, 09 with 08 and 10 with 09.
Result was -1.5/-1.5 (off/def) for 08, -0.5/-0.5 for 09, -0.5/-0.5 for 10.
I'll use -0.8 (the average) for both offense and defense then. If someone wants to use something different that's fine too, as long as you didn't optimize it on '11
I'll post results in a couple of minutes
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
If you're going to predict things on a per-possession basis (or per-game-segment-without-player-substitution basis), then another possibility would be simply to remove those possessions/game segments where rookies played from the evaluation, and only test the models on data where all 10 players on the floor had played in the NBA in at least 1 previous season.
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
It would probably be straightforward to do it both ways, right J.E.? I like J.E.'s method of just making them all -1.6 players.jsill wrote:If you're going to predict things on a per-possession basis (or per-game-segment-without-player-substitution basis), then another possibility would be simply to remove those possessions/game segments where rookies played from the evaluation, and only test the models on data where all 10 players on the floor had played in the NBA in at least 1 previous season.
Here were my ASPM projections from before the season. These were already posted before the season; I'm just cleaning and posting here.
I would prefer if the rookies were all given the -1.6 because of the selective sampling issue mentioned before. Nevertheless, I am including them here for the sake of completeness:
Code: Select all
LastTm Name BBV ID Rookie? ASPM Projection
WAS Josh Howard 1 0 -1.45
CHI Kurt Thomas 2 0 -1.24
MIA Erick Dampier 3 0 -0.16
DAL Shawn Marion 4 0 0.05
DAL Dirk Nowitzki 5 0 3.93
DAL Jason Terry 6 0 0.21
UTA Raja Bell 7 0 -2.61
PHX Steve Nash 8 0 2.63
MIA James Jones 10 0 -3.39
CHA Boris Diaw 12 0 0.08
BOS Marquis Daniels 14 0 -2.68
UTA Devin Harris 15 0 1.04
TOR Leandro Barbosa 16 0 -0.78
CHA DeSagana Diop 17 0 -2.26
MIA Eddie House 20 0 -2.73
DEN Kenyon Martin 21 0 0.08
POR Marcus Camby 23 0 2.56
SAS Manu Ginobili 24 0 4.28
NYK Carmelo Anthony 25 0 3.35
SAS Tim Duncan 26 0 4.30
SAS Tony Parker 30 0 2.24
POR Andre Miller 31 0 0.85
DEN Nene Hilario 34 0 3.19
MIL Earl Boykins 35 0 -4.74
CHA Eduardo Najera 36 0 -3.01
POR Fabricio Oberto 37 0 -2.60
OKC Nazr Mohammed 40 0 -1.89
UTA Francisco Elson 42 0 -4.01
MIL Michael Redd 45 0 -0.38
IND T.J. Ford 47 0 -0.60
SAS Bobby Simmons 48 0 -2.66
MIL Andrew Bogut 49 0 2.75
MIA Jamaal Magloire 51 0 -4.41
PHI Andre Iguodala 52 0 2.47
CHI Kyle Korver 54 0 -1.76
LAC Mo Williams 55 0 0.71
NJN Dan Gadzuric 56 0 -3.34
MIL John Salmons 59 0 0.32
GSW Charlie Bell 60 0 -3.55
DEN J.R. Smith 63 0 0.68
HOU Brad Miller 65 0 -1.24
DAL Peja Stojakovic 67 0 -2.45
MIA Mike Bibby 68 0 -0.75
NOH David West 69 0 0.88
NOH Chris Paul 70 0 10.17
DEN Chris Andersen 73 0 0.99
CHI Rasual Butler 76 0 -3.46
HOU Kevin Martin 77 0 0.20
MIL Brian Skinner 78 0 -5.09
SAC Francisco Garcia 80 0 -1.37
ORL Brandon Bass 83 0 -1.23
UTA Ronnie Price 85 0 -2.93
ATL Joe Johnson 86 0 1.63
CLE Baron Davis 87 0 1.09
ATL Zaza Pachulia 88 0 -1.13
BOS Troy Murphy 89 0 1.69
ORL Jason Richardson 90 0 0.94
PHX Josh Childress 91 0 -0.56
IND Mike Dunleavy 92 0 -1.24
ATL Josh Smith 94 0 4.10
DEN Al Harrington 95 0 -1.50
ATL Marvin Williams 97 0 0.72
PHX Mickael Pietrus 98 0 -0.85
GSW Andris Biedrins 101 0 2.24
LAL Derek Fisher 103 0 -1.67
OKC Royal Ivey 109 0 -3.91
ATL Kirk Hinrich 110 0 -1.10
POR Gerald Wallace 111 0 3.57
PHI Andres Nocioni 112 0 -3.43
ORL Chris Duhon 113 0 -2.98
NOH Emeka Okafor 117 0 -0.70
DAL Tyson Chandler 118 0 -1.56
DET Ben Gordon 119 0 -1.68
PHI Darius Songaila 121 0 -2.91
CHI Luol Deng 122 0 1.17
DEN Melvin Ely 123 0 -5.97
DEN Raymond Felton 126 0 0.61
CHA Matt Carroll 128 0 -4.01
ORL Malik Allen 130 0 -4.73
UTA Mehmet Okur 132 0 0.14
UTA Andrei Kirilenko 136 0 2.19
POR Jarron Collins 137 0 -5.09
NJN Deron Williams 139 0 4.20
NJN Kris Humphries 141 0 -2.45
BOS Jermaine O'Neal 143 0 -1.02
PHI Tony Battie 144 0 -3.72
LAL Ron Artest 145 0 0.35
CHA Stephen Jackson 147 0 0.49
DAL DeShawn Stevenson 148 0 -4.24
ORL Dwight Howard 149 0 5.59
ORL Hedo Turkoglu 151 0 -0.25
IND Danny Granger 155 0 2.48
ORL Jameer Nelson 158 0 1.69
TOR Reggie Evans 163 0 -3.22
LAC Chris Kaman 164 0 -1.34
BOS Ray Allen 166 0 0.24
PHI Elton Brand 167 0 -0.89
NJN Johan Petro 168 0 -3.15
NJN Quinton Ross 169 0 -4.93
WAS Rashard Lewis 170 0 1.58
OKC Nick Collison 172 0 -0.46
MIN Luke Ridnour 173 0 -0.59
ATL Damien Wilkins 176 0 -2.82
GSW Vladimir Radmanovic 180 0 -3.61
DET Chris Wilcox 181 0 -3.19
LAL Kobe Bryant 186 0 4.62
LAL Lamar Odom 187 0 1.60
CHA Kwame Brown 189 0 -3.52
LAC Brian Cook 191 0 -6.02
NJN Sasha Vujacic 193 0 -1.10
LAL Andrew Bynum 194 0 2.77
MEM Jason Williams 196 0 -1.25
LAL Pau Gasol 197 0 3.72
MEM Shane Battier 198 0 0.37
MIA Udonis Haslem 201 0 -1.64
BOS Shaquille O'Neal 203 0 -0.55
MIA Dwyane Wade 204 0 9.04
MIA Mike Miller 209 0 -0.13
PHI Jason Kapono 211 0 -4.79
IND Dahntay Jones 212 0 -3.19
GSW Dorell Wright 214 0 -0.12
POR Earl Barron 215 0 -2.67
PHX Hakim Warrick 218 0 -2.63
BOS Nenad Krstic 220 0 -1.80
SAS Richard Jefferson 221 0 -0.31
DAL Jason Kidd 222 0 2.00
ATL Jason Collins 223 0 -4.93
PHX Vince Carter 224 0 1.87
NYK Eddy Curry 235 0 -5.15
ORL Quentin Richardson 237 0 -1.07
BOS Delonte West 239 0 -0.42
BOS Paul Pierce 240 0 1.95
LAL Matt Barnes 241 0 -0.14
NOH Trevor Ariza 245 0 1.07
LAC Ryan Gomes 246 0 -1.92
UTA Al Jefferson 247 0 1.47
ATL Jamal Crawford 249 0 -0.14
NJN Orien Greene 251 0 -5.18
CHI Brian Scalabrine 252 0 -4.25
OKC Kendrick Perkins 253 0 0.31
OKC Nate Robinson 254 0 0.01
MIL Drew Gooden 257 0 -2.56
MIA Zydrunas Ilgauskas 258 0 -2.65
MIA LeBron James 260 0 11.72
BOS Sasha Pavlovic 265 0 -4.43
DET Richard Hamilton 270 0 -1.21
NYK Chauncey Billups 271 0 1.44
DET Tayshaun Prince 272 0 -0.14
DET Ben Wallace 273 0 1.92
SAS Antonio McDyess 275 0 -0.68
WAS Maurice Evans 276 0 -2.31
BOS Carlos Arroyo 277 0 -2.15
MIN Darko Milicic 278 0 -0.99
MIL Carlos Delfino 279 0 0.58
DET Jason Maxiell 280 0 -1.69
PHI Louis Williams 281 0 1.17
CHA Joel Przybilla 284 0 -0.25
BOS Kevin Garnett 285 0 3.62
MEM Zach Randolph 287 0 1.27
MIN Sebastian Telfair 289 0 -2.89
NOH Jarrett Jack 296 0 -0.65
LAL Theo Ratliff 297 0 -2.47
NYK Anthony Carter 298 0 -2.95
HOU Yao Ming 302 0 2.20
MIA Juwan Howard 304 0 -3.46
DET Tracy McGrady 305 0 -0.63
ORL Gilbert Arenas 313 0 2.42
NYK Jared Jeffries 315 0 -1.83
CLE Antawn Jamison 316 0 0.51
CLE Joey Graham 317 0 -4.26
MIA Chris Bosh 319 0 3.65
PHI Antonio Daniels 321 0 -4.00
DAL Brendan Haywood 322 0 -0.20
ATL Etan Thomas 323 0 -6.02
DAL Caron Butler 324 0 0.40
OKC Morris Peterson 326 0 -4.23
DET Charlie Villanueva 327 0 -1.19
SAS Matt Bonner 330 0 0.23
TOR Jose Calderon 331 0 0.41
SAC Beno Udrih 344 0 -0.97
TOR Ronald Dupree 349 0 -5.12
NJN Travis Outlaw 354 0 -1.50
LAL Steve Blake 355 0 -2.18
MIN Martell Webster 356 0 -1.44
UTA Earl Watson 357 0 -2.77
PHX Channing Frye 362 0 1.50
CHI Keith Bogans 366 0 -1.83
SAC Luther Head 372 0 -3.32
GSW David Lee 377 0 2.79
LAL Joe Smith 383 0 -3.95
MIL Corey Maggette 390 0 -0.76
IND James Posey 401 0 -1.88
POR Sean Marks 410 0 -4.72
WAS Andray Blatche 413 0 0.98
GSW Monta Ellis 417 0 0.67
MIL Keyon Dooling 419 0 -3.56
UTA C.J. Miles 426 0 -0.65
ATL Josh Powell 430 0 -5.63
NOH DJ Mbenga 439 0 -4.17
SAC Antoine Wright 444 0 -3.51
LAC Ike Diogu 453 0 -4.06
BOS Von Wafer 454 0 -2.92
SAC Samuel Dalembert 458 0 -0.95
LAL Luke Walton 459 0 -2.69
IND Jeff Foster 468 0 -1.26
NJN Stephen Graham 477 0 -4.43
CHA Shaun Livingston 483 0 -2.42
DAL Brian Cardinal 484 0 -3.60
PHX Grant Hill 486 0 -0.07
TOR Marcus Banks 488 0 -3.16
MIA Jerry Stackhouse 492 0 -3.26
CHI John Lucas 498 0 #N/A
MEM Tony Allen 501 0 -1.10
CLE Anderson Varejao 505 0 1.89
HOU Chuck Hayes 508 0 0.84
TOR Amir Johnson 510 0 1.37
NYK Ronny Turiaf 516 0 -0.84
CHI Carlos Boozer 518 0 2.83
DET Will Bynum 532 0 -1.84
NYK Amare Stoudemire 537 0 1.24
NOH Willie Green 541 0 -3.51
SAS Ime Udoka 544 0 -2.80
IND Solomon Jones 550 0 -2.92
NYK Shelden Williams 551 0 -2.39
MEM Leon Powe 552 0 -3.29
BOS Rajon Rondo 553 0 4.78
CLE Ryan Hollins 557 0 -4.01
OKC Thabo Sefolosha 558 0 0.50
CHA Tyrus Thomas 559 0 0.97
LAL Shannon Brown 560 0 -1.23
CLE Daniel Gibson 561 0 -0.89
MIN Maurice Ager 562 0 -6.06
DAL Jose Barea 563 0 -2.20
NOH Pops Mensah-Bonsu 564 0 -5.95
SAS Steve Novak 569 0 -4.07
NYK Shawne Williams 573 0 -2.78
NJN Jordan Farmar 575 0 -1.63
MEM Rudy Gay 577 0 0.90
HOU Kyle Lowry 579 0 0.42
SAS Chris Quinn 581 0 -3.84
LAC Randy Foye 588 0 -2.14
LAC Craig Smith 589 0 -0.90
ATL Hilton Armstrong 594 0 -4.34
NYK Renaldo Balkman 597 0 -0.92
ORL J.J. Redick 599 0 -0.02
MEM Rodney Carney 601 0 -3.15
POR Brandon Roy 606 0 4.23
POR LaMarcus Aldridge 607 0 2.66
TOR Andrea Bargnani 612 0 -1.00
CLE Anthony Parker 614 0 -1.13
CHI Ronnie Brewer 617 0 1.04
NYK Roger Mason 622 0 -2.90
UTA Paul Millsap 629 0 2.16
TOR Linas Kleiza 640 0 -2.82
NYK Kelenna Azubuike 643 0 -1.89
GSW Louis Amundson 653 0 -1.94
DAL Ian Mahinmi 660 0 -4.35
POR Greg Oden 661 0 2.01
IND Josh McRoberts 662 0 -0.69
PHX Aaron Brooks 666 0 -0.63
NOH Carl Landry 667 0 -0.63
UTA Kyrylo Fesenko 669 0 -2.82
NJN Brandan Wright 671 0 -0.62
NOH Marco Belinelli 673 0 -3.00
HOU Luis Scola 674 0 0.80
BOS Glen Davis 675 0 -1.84
DEN Wilson Chandler 679 0 -0.20
PHI Thaddeus Young 681 0 0.43
LAC Jamario Moon 682 0 0.02
NOH Aaron Gray 685 0 -1.98
CHI Joakim Noah 686 0 2.03
DEN Arron Afflalo 689 0 -1.16
DET Rodney Stuckey 691 0 0.41
WAS Yi Jianlian 693 0 -2.62
CLE Ramon Sessions 694 0 -1.24
ATL Al Horford 695 0 3.39
GSW Acie Law 696 0 -4.44
NJN Mario West 697 0 -3.01
PHX Jared Dudley 699 0 1.14
MIA Joel Anthony 700 0 -1.70
OKC Daequan Cook 701 0 -3.86
PHX Marcin Gortat 702 0 -0.15
CHA Dominic McGuire 703 0 -2.30
WAS Nick Young 705 0 -4.15
MEM Mike Conley 707 0 0.20
TOR Julian Wright 711 0 -2.52
DAL Corey Brewer 712 0 -1.27
OKC Kevin Durant 714 0 5.86
BOS Jeff Green 715 0 0.44
GSW Al Thornton 716 0 -2.49
PHI Spencer Hawes 719 0 -0.59
WAS Mustafa Shakur 720 1 #N/A
NOH Jason Smith 722 0 -3.14
CHI C.J. Watson 726 0 -1.19
HOU Mike Harris 729 0 -3.88
POR Rudy Fernandez 734 0 0.73
TOR Jerryd Bayless 735 0 -2.19
POR Nicolas Batum 736 0 2.53
SAC Donte Greene 739 0 -2.47
SAC Jason Thompson 741 0 -0.67
MIN Anthony Randolph 746 0 -0.37
DEN Kosta Koufos 748 0 -3.51
NYK Bill Walker 752 0 -0.03
TOR Alexis Ajinca 753 0 -6.19
CHA D.J. Augustin 754 0 -1.06
CHI Derrick Rose 755 0 1.78
CLE J.J. Hickson 756 0 -1.08
SAC Darnell Jackson 757 0 -6.08
CLE Jawad Williams 758 0 -3.55
TOR Sonny Weems 759 0 -1.23
TOR Joey Dorsey 761 0 -5.46
IND Roy Hibbert 762 0 0.02
IND Brandon Rush 763 0 -1.94
LAC Eric Gordon 764 0 -0.17
LAC DeAndre Jordan 765 0 -1.97
MEM Darrell Arthur 768 0 -1.26
MEM Marc Gasol 769 0 2.59
MEM Hamed Haddadi 770 0 -3.93
MEM O.J. Mayo 771 0 0.30
MIN Michael Beasley 772 0 -0.19
MIA Mario Chalmers 773 0 -0.51
NOH Joe Alexander 776 0 -4.37
MIL Luc Mbah a Moute 777 0 0.98
MIN Kevin Love 778 0 1.63
ORL Ryan Anderson 779 0 0.46
MIL Chris Douglas-Roberts 780 0 -3.46
NJN Brook Lopez 781 0 2.06
DEN Danilo Gallinari 784 0 0.44
UTA Kyle Weaver 785 0 -1.46
OKC Russell Westbrook 786 0 2.27
CHA D.J. White 787 0 -1.58
HOU Courtney Lee 788 0 -0.97
PHI Marreese Speights 789 0 -0.93
HOU Goran Dragic 790 0 -1.02
PHX Robin Lopez 791 0 -1.29
SAS George Hill 793 0 0.90
MIN Anthony Tolliver 794 0 -1.74
WAS JaVale McGee 798 0 -1.66
NJN Anthony Morrow 800 0 -1.93
WAS Cartier Martin 801 0 -2.83
LAL Trey Johnson 803 0 -5.44
ATL Jeff Teague 806 0 -2.23
WAS Lester Hudson 807 0 -3.70
NYK Derrick Brown 808 0 -2.10
CHA Gerald Henderson 809 0 -3.28
CHI Taj Gibson 811 0 -0.63
TOR James Johnson 812 0 -2.43
SAS Danny Green 813 0 -3.17
DAL Rodrigue Beaubois 814 0 0.18
DEN Ty Lawson 816 0 -0.24
DET Austin Daye 818 0 -1.89
DET Jonas Jerebko 819 0 -0.25
DET DaJuan Summers 820 0 -4.33
GSW Stephen Curry 821 0 1.05
NOH David Andersen 822 0 -3.70
HOU Chase Budinger 823 0 -0.36
SAC Jermaine Taylor 824 0 -3.68
IND Tyler Hansbrough 825 0 -2.16
IND A.J. Price 826 0 -1.84
LAC Blake Griffin 827 1 1.37
HOU DeMarre Carroll 831 0 -2.93
HOU Hasheem Thabeet 833 0 -0.75
MEM Sam Young 834 0 -3.68
MIL Ersan Ilyasova 835 0 1.19
MIL Brandon Jennings 836 0 1.76
PHI Jodie Meeks 837 0 -2.55
MIN Wayne Ellington 838 0 -4.09
MIN Jonny Flynn 839 0 -2.03
HOU Terrence Williams 840 0 -2.43
IND Darren Collison 841 0 -1.33
SAC Marcus Thornton 842 0 -0.25
NYK Toney Douglas 843 0 -1.16
HOU Jordan Hill 844 0 -1.66
OKC James Harden 846 0 1.11
OKC Serge Ibaka 847 0 -1.30
OKC Byron Mullens 848 0 -3.94
PHI Jrue Holiday 849 0 -0.88
ORL Earl Clark 850 0 -4.03
CHA Dante Cunningham 852 0 -1.25
POR Patrick Mills 853 0 -3.72
MIL Jon Brockman 855 0 -1.98
SAC Omri Casspi 856 0 -1.04
SAC Tyreke Evans 857 0 2.93
SAS DeJuan Blair 858 0 1.47
TOR DeMar Derozan 860 0 -1.48
POR Wesley Matthews 861 0 -1.82
OKC Eric Maynor 862 0 -2.01
NJN Sundiata Gaines 865 0 -2.27
CHA Garrett Temple 868 0 -2.18
GSW Reggie Williams 869 0 -0.06
WAS Othyus Jeffers 871 0 -4.28
CLE Alonzo Gee 872 0 -4.09
WAS Jordan Crawford 874 1 -4.21
ATL Pape Sy 875 1 -6.40
BOS Avery Bradley 876 1 -3.40
CLE Semih Erden 877 1 -3.50
CLE Luke Harangody 878 1 -6.33
CHA Sherron Collins 879 1 -3.50
CHI Omer Asik 880 1 -3.50
CLE Christian Eyenga 881 1 -3.58
CLE Manny Harris 882 1 -3.50
CLE Samardo Samuels 883 1 -3.50
DAL Dominique Jones 884 1 -4.02
DEN Gary Forbes 885 1 #N/A
DET Greg Monroe 886 1 -1.73
DET Terrico White 887 0 -5.02
GSW Jeff Adrien 888 1 #N/A
GSW Jeremy Lin 889 1 -3.50
GSW Ekpe Udoh 890 1 -1.52
HOU Patrick Patterson 891 1 -2.81
MEM Ishmael Smith 892 1 #N/A
MEM Xavier Henry 893 1 -2.54
MEM Greivis Vasquez 894 1 -4.31
MIN Lazar Hayward 895 1 -4.49
MIN Wesley Johnson 896 1 -1.01
MIN Nikola Pekovic 897 1 -3.50
SAC DeMarcus Cousins 898 1 -1.28
SAC Eugene Jeter 899 1 #N/A
SAC Hassan Whiteside 900 1 -4.76
IND Paul George 901 1 -2.25
IND Lance Stephenson 902 1 -5.36
LAC Al-Farouq Aminu 903 1 -1.92
LAC Eric Bledsoe 904 1 -3.29
LAC Willie Warren 905 1 -6.48
LAL Derrick Caracter 906 1 -6.79
LAL Devin Ebanks 907 1 -5.61
MIA Dexter Pittman 908 1 -4.67
MIL Darrington Hobson 909 0 #N/A
MIL Larry Sanders 910 1 -2.94
UTA Derrick Favors 911 1 -0.67
NJN Damion James 912 1 -3.92
NJN Ben Uzoh 913 1 -3.50
NOH Quincy Pondexter 914 1 -4.12
NYK Landry Fields 915 1 -5.28
DEN Timofey Mozgov 916 1 -3.50
NYK Andy Rautins 917 1 -5.19
OKC Cole Aldrich 918 1 -2.40
ORL Daniel Orton 919 0 -4.40
PHI Craig Brackins 920 1 -3.62
PHI Evan Turner 921 1 -0.22
PHX Matt Janning 922 0 -3.50
PHX Gani Lawal 923 1 -5.85
PHX Garret Siler 924 1 #N/A
POR Luke Babbitt 925 1 -3.06
POR Armon Johnson 926 1 -4.85
POR Elliot Williams 927 0 -3.72
SAS James Anderson 928 1 -3.51
SAS Gary Neal 929 1 -3.50
SAS Tiago Splitter 930 1 0.00
TOR Solomon Alabi 931 1 -6.17
TOR Ed Davis 932 1 -2.68
UTA Jeremy Evans 933 1 -6.56
UTA Gordon Hayward 934 1 -2.09
WAS Trevor Booker 935 1 -3.82
WAS Hamady NDiaye 936 1 -6.63
WAS Kevin Seraphin 937 1 -3.18
WAS John Wall 938 1 0.51
PHX Zabian Dowdell 939 1 #N/A
WAS Larry Owens 940 1 #N/A
POR Chris Johnson 941 1 #N/A
UTA Marcus Cousin 942 1 #N/A
NOH Patrick Ewing Jr. 943 1 -3.50Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
here goes
Per possession error was calculated in the following way
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points)²
In case the matchupfile lumped many possessions together (happens often), the error becomes
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points/possessions)²*possessions
Thus, if there were 5 points scored in 4 possessions and the forecast was 1ppp we get
error=(1-5/4)²*5=(1-1.25)²*5
Simple homecourt
Per possession RMSE 0.5967
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 4.2678
RMSE 5.01481
For '10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.59529
With Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5767
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.693
RMSE 3.278
For 08-10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.5949
with Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5784
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.3968
RMSE 3.236
Biggest mistakes are Cleveland and Chicago, both were expected to be somewhat average.
Sessions, Gibson, Jamison and Parker were not rated as awful, only Hollins and Hickson were.
Chicago, to some extend at least, came out so strong because of Asik and Thibodeau
I didn't include coaches or playoff data yet
DSMok1, do you not have defensive numbers, too?
Per possession error was calculated in the following way
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points)²
In case the matchupfile lumped many possessions together (happens often), the error becomes
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points/possessions)²*possessions
Thus, if there were 5 points scored in 4 possessions and the forecast was 1ppp we get
error=(1-5/4)²*5=(1-1.25)²*5
Simple homecourt
Per possession RMSE 0.5967
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 4.2678
RMSE 5.01481
For '10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.59529
With Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5767
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.693
RMSE 3.278
For 08-10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.5949
with Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5784
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.3968
RMSE 3.236
Biggest mistakes are Cleveland and Chicago, both were expected to be somewhat average.
Sessions, Gibson, Jamison and Parker were not rated as awful, only Hollins and Hickson were.
Chicago, to some extend at least, came out so strong because of Asik and Thibodeau
I didn't include coaches or playoff data yet
DSMok1, do you not have defensive numbers, too?
Last edited by J.E. on Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
I only projected overall +/-, not defense and offense individually.J.E. wrote:here goes
Per possession error was calculated in the following way
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points)²
In case the matchupfile lumped many possessions together (happens often), the error becomes
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points/possessions)²*possessions
Thus, if there were 5 points scored in 4 possessions and the forecast was 1ppp we get
error=(1-5/4)²*5=(1-1.25)²*5
Simple homecourt
Per possession RMSE 0.5965
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 4.0270
RMSE 4.669
For '10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.59529
With Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5767
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.693
RMSE 3.278
For 08-10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.5949
with Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5784
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.3968
RMSE 3.236
Biggest mistakes are Cleveland and Chicago, both were expected to be somewhat average.
Sessions, Gibson, Jamison and Parker were not rated as awful, only Hollins and Hickson were.
Chicago, to some extend at least, came out so strong because of Asik and Thibodeau
I didn't include coaches or playoff data yet
DSMok1, do you not have defensive numbers, too?
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
Can you please repost that as csv. I don't need team identifier or name but I need the same thing between ID and rating. There are different amounts of spaces between rating and name the way you posted it.DSMok1 wrote:I only projected overall +/-, not defense and offense individually.
"ID;rating" is best
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
Uploaded on Google Docs: https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1NfC ... z&hl=en_US
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
With DSMok1's numbers:
Doing what Joe Sill suggested 0.579
Per possession RMSE 0.5957
Mean absolute error ED 2.4518
RMSE ED 2.9387
Players with rating '#N/A' got -0.8
Doing what Joe Sill suggested 0.579
Per possession RMSE 0.5957
Mean absolute error ED 2.4518
RMSE ED 2.9387
Players with rating '#N/A' got -0.8
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
Thanks for the uploads to google docs and the ability to download in csv (or other formats). Hopefully all the files in this thread will be as accessible.
Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011
I don't think this is what you wanted it to be. Everything is in 1 big line and while there's a PID field listed at the top, no PID is actually listed for any player