Statman's new site....

[Crow]

Looked at the national rankings. Plumlee was one of the few NBA prospect names anywhere near the top. As it gets close to the draft it might be nice to see a list of your rankings for just the top draft prospects (according to ESPn or draftexpress) on a separate shorter list. If you are interested enough in that to do so, thanks.

[Statman]

Looked at the national rankings. Plumlee was one of the few NBA prospect names anywhere near the top. As it gets close to the draft it might be nice to see a list of your rankings for just the top draft prospects (according to ESPn or draftexpress) on a separate shorter list. If you are interested enough in that to do so, thanks.

That's not really true - looking at the current Draft Express mock for 2013 - , #2 pick Noel (frosh) is ranked #74 nationally by Hoopsnerd, #3 pick Zeller (soph) is ranked #7 nationally by Hoopsnerd, #4 pick Len (soph) is actually #101 nationally, #5 pick McLemore (frosh) is #21 nationally, #7 pick Bennet (frosh) is #6 nationally, #11 pick Plumlee (senior) is #3 nationally, #12 pick McCollum (senior) is #50 nationally, #13 pick Carter-Williams (soph) is #18 nationally, #15 pick Porter (soph) is #34 nationally, #16 pick Smart (fresh) is #16 nationally, #18 pick Burke is #2 nationally, #19 pick Franklin (junior) is #13 nationally, #25 pick Withey (senior) is #20 nationally, #26 pick Deng (junior) is #52 nationally, #27 pick Olynyk (junior) is #11 nationally, #28 pick Oladipo (junior) is #22 nationally, #32 pick Muscala (senior) is ranked #1 nationally, #35 pick Smith (junior) is ranked #12 nationally......

OK, I went on much farther than I meant to there. I'm gonna chart this now and post it on my site shortly.

EDIT: I finished - I posted a hastily thrown together write up and a chart on the site about the NBA draft and my rankings for you to peruse.....

Thanks Crow - this discussion will be MUCH more interesting when I finish all the past college seasons and can do proper college to NBA projections based on past results. As it is now, in a simple sense, the college rankings do give some insight on who may be over/under rated by NBA mocks (production vs tools/athleticism argument).

[Statman]

I mentioned it in the links thread - but I don't want to reply in that thread about it when I have an update that might interest some here.

I know some here follow college basketball - I've been updating my college basketball player ratings every Saturday. I just posted the ratings in PDF (there's a link on the home page) - so people can see all 3050 ranked players if they'd like. I promise you that it'll be a nice resource for attempting to "get to know" many players you may not know come March Madness. It'll help weed out the true stars from some of the small schools from the more empty stat guys.

As I mentioned in the links thread - I am VERY green in terms of website stuff, so any input would be appreciated.

I will be doing NBA player ratings very soon, and will probably attempt to update those every week (maybe every Sunday or Monday).

I have grand ideas for what I want to publish online in the future - but now it's baby steps.

[Crow]

I guess I don't know the current draft prospect names that well and didn't spend enough time to find them on your list. Thanks for citing the names somewhere near the top. Still it is only about a half dozen draftexpress mockdraft prospects in your top 20 or so.

[Statman]

I guess I don't know the current draft prospect names that well and didn't spend enough time to find them on your list. Thanks for citing the names somewhere near the top. Still it is only about a half dozen draftexpress mockdraft prospects in your top 20 or so.

True.

Like I said - this isn't an NBA projection stat obviously. It is a performance stat for ranking and comparison purposes for college. My rankings do not differentiate between 23 year olds and 18 year olds for example - they just rank who performed best (all things considered). This would be like doing WAR for AA players in baseball. It could do a pretty effective job of ranking performance for players in AA that year (including ball park effects, league, etc) - BUT it wouldn't necessarily be that close to a perfect rank for future MLB success. There are scoutable "tools" that effect projected pro success by GMs - not to mention the age factor (an 18 year old putting up good stats in AA would probably be projected a bit better than a 23 year old putting up great stats).

Now, the correlation between my rankings and the final draft positions will get better - often much better - right before the draft. Like I mentioned before (not sure if it was here) - just two years ago my top 5 (Kemba Walker, Derrick Williams, Jimmer Fredette, Norris Cole, and Faried) ALL shot way up the draft projections as the season ended and even right before the draft. That tends to happen every season - sustained performance over an entire college season will be more noticed when GMs start looking "closer" at players. A player blowing up in the NCAA tourney against greater competition will usually greatly increase their draft prospects - AS WELL as greatly improve their rating with the great stats and increase in SoS the tourney provides. Like I said - the correlation gets better - which will be very easy to compare months from now since I did look up and post these still quite early mocks.

Now - I WILL be developing an NBA future success type ranking - using similarity scores and such with all past college players. It'll weed out better the skillsets that don't project well - for example, it SEEMS that poor ball handling & defensive ratings in college, no matter how great the shooting and rebounding - foretell NBA troubles. Like a BAD strike out to walk ratio for a hitter in AA - it can mean big trouble for future success in MLB even paired with an awesom OPS+ in AA. My NBA projections should more effectively give us an even better idea of the hidden gems and overrated players (it'll take into account age &/or college class as well - and maybe even past college seasons) than just the straight final college rating in the player's final year.

Thank you Crow for looking at my stuff - you seem to do a great job of delving into everybodies work, your input is always helpful imo.

Oh BTW - maybe we should continue any discussion on the site and my work (I THINK I'll have NBA stuff up tommorrow morning) to that "Statman's new site" thread I started - that way I don't fill up the links thread with a bunch of stuff that doesn't offer new links.... I'll copy/paste this to that thread in case a discussion continues now or down the road.

[Statman]

Deleted already posted info after DSMo1k moved my posts from another thread to here....

[DSMok1]

Moved those last 4 posts from the other thread over here.

Daniel

[Statman]

Moved those last 4 posts from the other thread over here.

Daniel

Thanks - I'll edit my now redundant last post.

[Dr Positivity]

Nice site Statman. I tend to be on the opposite end of a site like yours, looking strictly at player talent and not their college production (but I have a different way of judging talent than the common, putting a greater emphasis on skill and IQ/feel as innate), but it's nice to see other resources. A good stats-draft site if you guys have seen it is hoopsanalyst.com. He has a regression formula for draft-NBA success, which like most of the kind favor stats like rebounding, blocks, steals, ast/tov and TS% and not volume scoring. If any of you are Cavs fans he's also an excellent resource, because he listed Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters as his #2 prospects of 2011 and 2012 at the time. Which means that the analytics and stat crunching were connected to the Cavs making those bold picks, are likely similar to his formula.

I notice you're out on Shabazz. To me Shabazz being ranked #1 is one of the most bizarre situations since Marvin Williams was put in a similar position. What reason is there to believe Shabazz is an elite prospect?

Raw college production: 18/5 .56 TS% volume jumpshooter. 23 PER for a college prospect is fine, but nothing great. The best college players like Zeller and Burke are over 30

Statistical analysis like hoopsanalyst - Way out on Shabazz. Most analysis favors players with reb, blk, stl, ast/tov, TS%, and considers high volume ppg on middling efficiency in college, as just above useless as an indicator since that stat is reliant on context. Shabazz of course, has brutal blk/stl/ast numbers and his standout stat is high volume, mid efficiency scoring

Practical analysis - My system has Shabazz as a trainwreck waiting to happen as a slasher. First of all I can't believe his athleticism isn't catching more heat, because it's pretty weak. I see little explosiveness, either from a first step or playing above the rim perspective. With his size/strength, to me his physical clone is like, Wes Matthews. Secondly he's not a proficient ball-handler or someone who creates off the dribble for an extended period of time. Wes Matthews athleticism and weak ballhandling? In terms of creating offense off the dribble, attacking the rim and paint area, etc., which is the single most important thing for a star wing, that's a BAD combo. As a slasher, it basically makes him... Wes Matthews. His strongest skill right now is his 3pt shooting at 43.6% 3P, but the combo of the short 3pt line and a small sample size, makes college 3pt shooting volatile. Recent players like Derrick Williams and Wes Johnson among many others, are examples of hot 3pt shooters in college, who didn't translate. One thing I like looking at is FT%. Some of the best shooters lately like Irving, George, Lillard, Redick, Curry, etc. were red hot from the FT line in college, like 85-90%. I tend to think if a player is 85%+ from the FT line and he's 40%+ from, he's trustworthy. For example Ben McLemore has an incredible 45.6% 3pt and 88.0% FT combo. That guy's probably as close as you can get to a guaranteed 3pt sharpshooter in the NBA. Shabazz is only at 71.7% of his FTs. Much much more worrisome IMO. He shoots FTs worse than Kyle Anderson who's labelled a player with no jumper. Now Shabazz can turn himself into a really good FT shooter, but I wouldn't draft him specifically because of his 3pt shooting, it's just too much of a risk. The weirdest part about the Shabazz situation is that normally IMO athleticism is overrated in the draft and skill and IQ/feel/craftiness, is underrated, particularly the latter. Yet here's a player who's one of the most unimpressive athletes ranked in the 1st round, who's biggest strength is craftiness and feel, to go along with decent skill, and somehow he's ranked #1. On top of all this, he also has one of the things that hurts prospect draft stock the most, he's considered a tweener (between the SG and SF positions) and someone who will have to settle for playing as an undersized 3 (and teams of course crap their pants even at the mention of the word undersized when it comes to the draft). I suppose the factors of high school hype and volume scoring help counteract those factors, but it makes me wonder if the mocks have it wrong right now and Shabazz eventually goes like 9th or 10th overall if not even lower

[Statman]

Dr. Positivity,

I'm obviously with you on Shabazz - preachin' to the choir here. Heck - I'll be amazed, at this rate, if he sticks in the lottery. When I get elbows deep into the draft stuff - his projections at this rate won't get better. I'm curious how long it'll take Draft Express to drop him down a bit from #1.

Now, if somehow he starts to get a couple steals and assists PER GAME the rest of the year - and increases his FT rate and efficiency even more - then maybe he'll start looking like a possible NBA player. Not a star, mind you, a player. The chances of that happening appear to be low.

BTW - Shabazz was not considered a good three point shooter coming into college. I think what we have here is a bit of a mirage from the small sample size. His final 3pt% this year will probably be in the 30s.

If Shabazz gets drafted ahead of talents like a McLemore, or Noel, or Zeller, or Burke, or a few others I'm sure I'll like come April - that gm probably should get fired.

[Crow]

Thanks for the compliment and additional explanation Statman. I don't have any additional commentary at the moment. I'll probably get back to your site closer to the draft.

I understand you are more college game centric, but I appreciate your willingness to address the NBA prospect angle to some degree in your own way and on your own timeline.

[Statman]

Thanks for the compliment and additional explanation Statman. I don't have any additional commentary at the moment. I'll probably get back to your site closer to the draft.

I understand you are more college game centric, but I appreciate your willingness to address the NBA prospect angle to some degree in your own way and on your own timeline.

The NBA ratings are posted. I kinda went overboard - there's alot to look at if you want to dig deeper.

[Crow]

You have been busy. I see lots of different cuts of NBA data there now. I have downloaded some and will look into them a bit later when I have the time.

[Statman]

You have been busy. I see lots of different cuts of NBA data there now. I have downloaded some and will look into them a bit later when I have the time.

I'll obviously update everything during All Star break when you are attempting to pull the comparisons together.

[CrackersPhinn]

Dr. Positivity--

Do you have a site where you post your analysis/scouting of college prospects? I would be really interested in hearing your insight as I've noticed you have a fairly unique take on things.