2011 Playoff summaries

[Mike G]

Chicago Bulls' summaries : 5 G vs Ind, 6 G vs Atl, 5 G vs Mia

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per36    opp   eWins   mpg    Eff%    Sco    Reb    Ast     PF    Stl    TO    Blk    e480
Asik     Ind    .00     5    .333     2.1   10.9     .0    2.5    1.3    2.5   1.2    -.03
Asik     Atl    .01    13    .471     3.3    9.2     .5    5.6     .0     .9   2.5     .08
Asik     Mia   -.07     9    .385     3.0    3.9     .0    4.2     .7    2.1    .7    -.76
Asik     tot   -.06     9    .430     3.0    8.2     .3    4.6     .4    1.5   1.8    -.16
                                                
Bogans   Ind    .12    19    .675    11.9    3.8    1.3    1.2    1.6     .4    .8     .62
Bogans   Atl    .05    20    .615    10.8    2.3    1.9    3.5    1.3     .6    .0     .20
Bogans   Mia   -.03    18    .460     8.6    2.3    1.6    4.8     .8    1.6    .4    -.18
Bogans   tot    .14    19    .598    10.5    2.8    1.6    3.2    1.2     .9    .4     .22
                                                
Boozer   Ind    .31    30    .407    11.7   13.4    2.2    4.6     .7    3.4    .7     .98
Boozer   Atl    .61    31    .556    18.6   12.4    2.7    3.0     .4    1.8    .0    1.55
Boozer   Mia    .59    33    .483    16.5   12.8    1.8    3.3     .9    1.1    .9    1.69
Boozer   tot   1.50    32    .498    15.9   12.8    2.3    3.6     .7    2.0    .5    1.42

per36    opp   eWins   mpg    Eff%    Sco    Reb    Ast     PF    Stl    TO    Blk    e480
Brewer   Ind    .05    13    .500     6.8    6.3    2.9    1.1    1.1    1.1    .5     .40
Brewer   Atl    .05    15    .444     5.8    4.9    2.6    2.2    1.5     .7   1.1     .25
Brewer   Mia    .18    22    .632    12.8    4.2    1.2    1.8    1.8     .0    .6     .78
Brewer   tot    .28    16    .565     9.0    4.9    2.1    1.8    1.5     .5    .7     .51
                                                
Deng     Ind    .55    42    .528    17.8    5.8    3.4    1.9    1.2    1.7    .3    1.25
Deng     Atl    .50    44    .500    12.7    6.5    2.4    1.6    1.1     .4    .7     .90
Deng     Mia    .45    43    .524    16.3    6.8    1.7    2.9    1.5    2.2    .5    1.02
Deng     tot   1.50    43    .518    15.4    6.4    2.5    2.1    1.3    1.4    .5    1.05
                                                
Gibson   Ind    .08    18    .476     7.6    9.2     .8    4.5     .4    2.2   2.2     .41
Gibson   Atl    .39    17    .662    20.5    9.4    1.5    3.0    1.0    1.6   3.5    1.85
Gibson   Mia    .12    18    .519    10.5    7.8    1.1    4.0     .4    1.1   1.8     .65
Gibson   tot    .59    18    .591    13.2    8.8    1.2    3.8     .6    1.7   2.5    1.01

per36    opp   eWins   mpg    Eff%    Sco    Reb    Ast     PF    Stl    TO    Blk    e480
Korver   Ind    .25    21    .634    20.7    3.1    3.2    3.9     .6    1.9    .6    1.15
Korver   Atl    .06    16    .447    12.6    1.7    3.0    3.6    1.8    2.1    .0     .29
Korver   Mia   -.07    15    .422     7.0    2.9     .9    5.5     .4    1.7    .4    -.43
Korver   tot    .24    17    .549    14.2    2.6    2.5    4.2    1.0    1.9    .4     .42
                                                
Noah     Ind    .61    32    .508    15.0   13.2    2.3    5.1    1.2    1.6   2.9    1.82
Noah     Atl    .56    34    .538    10.3   13.3    3.2    3.9     .7    1.1   2.0    1.34
Noah     Mia    .37    34    .333     5.2   12.1    3.9    4.3    1.5    1.3   1.9    1.03
Noah     tot   1.53    33    .491    10.1   12.9    3.1    4.4    1.1    1.3   2.3    1.38
                                                
Rose     Ind    .99    39    .511    29.1    4.6    6.0    2.4    2.4    3.6   1.1    2.44
Rose     Atl   1.43    41    .520    32.1    4.6   10.0    1.0     .6    3.1    .6    2.79
Rose     Mia    .62    42    .430    20.6    4.0    6.1    2.3     .9    3.3    .2    1.41
Rose     tot   3.04    41    .496    27.5    4.4    7.6    1.9    1.2    3.3    .6    2.24

per36    opp   eWins   mpg    Eff%    Sco    Reb    Ast     PF    Stl    TO    Blk    e480
Watson   Ind    .06    10    .395    11.7    2.2   10.1    5.5    1.4    5.5    .0     .63
Watson   Atl    .08     9    .391    12.6    5.3    6.8    2.6    2.6    5.1    .0     .77
Watson   Mia    .11     8    .471    14.4    3.6    7.3    2.4    1.6     .8    .0    1.38
Watson   tot    .25     9    .417    12.8    3.8    8.1    3.6    1.9    4.1    .0     .89

[Mike G]

Oklahoma Thunder summaries vs Den (5 G), Mem (7 G), Dal (5 G)

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per36     opp  eWins   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Collison  Den    .06   20   .634    8.8   6.3   1.2   4.4    .3    .7   .7    .28
Collison  Mem    .24   25   .600    9.1   9.1   1.0   5.2   1.6    .8  1.2    .70
Collison  Dal    .32   27   .729   13.2  10.1   1.9   6.0   1.5   1.7  1.7   1.12
Collison  tot    .62   24   .661   10.4   8.7   1.3   5.3   1.3   1.1  1.2    .74
                                    
Cook      Den    .01   10   .467    7.2   8.0    .0   3.3   1.3   2.0   .0    .09
Cook      Mem    .01   13   .529   11.0   5.1    .5   2.6    .4   1.5   .0    .07
Cook      Dal   -.04   10   .778    9.0   1.4    .0   3.1    .0    .0   .0   -.39
Cook      tot   -.02   11   .576    9.5   4.9    .2   2.9    .5   1.2   .0   -.04
                                    
Durant    Den   1.02   42   .611   30.9   4.9   3.3   2.9    .9   1.2   .9   2.32
Durant    Mem   1.09   41   .556   23.6   8.4   1.6   2.4    .6   2.0   .9   1.92
Durant    Dal    .83   45   .541   22.9   8.5   3.2   2.6   1.0   3.1  1.1   1.77
Durant    tot   2.94   43   .571   25.5   7.4   2.6   2.6    .8   2.1  1.0   1.99
 
per36     opp  eWins   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Harden    Den    .33   30   .565   12.9   6.7   4.0   3.8   1.4   1.6  1.2   1.07
Harden    Mem    .77   32   .626   18.2   5.5   5.6   2.7   1.4   2.1  1.1   1.74
Harden    Dal    .46   32   .649   17.5   7.1   3.5   3.2   1.3   1.7   .2   1.37
Harden    tot   1.56   31   .620   16.5   6.3   4.5   3.1   1.4   1.8   .9   1.44
                                    
Ibaka     Den    .44   32   .490   11.1  13.0    .5   3.7    .5   2.1  5.6   1.34
Ibaka     Mem    .27   27   .520   11.0   7.8    .3   6.0    .2   1.2  3.8    .73
Ibaka     Dal    .13   29   .505   10.5   9.0    .0   4.6    .3   1.5  2.3    .42
Ibaka     tot    .84   29   .506   10.9   9.9    .3   4.9    .3   1.6  3.9    .84
                                    
Maynor    Den    .16   12   .500   17.5   3.5   6.5   1.1   1.1   2.3   .0   1.28
Maynor    Mem    .25   13   .471   12.4   4.0   9.5   2.6   2.3   3.0   .0   1.34
Maynor    Dal   -.03   14   .444    7.5   3.0   3.1   3.2    .5   1.8   .0   -.24
Maynor    tot    .37   13   .477   12.3   3.5   6.8   2.4   1.4   2.4   .0    .84

per36     opp  eWins   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
Perkins   Den    .04   26   .443    6.7   9.7    .3   5.5    .3   2.0   .9    .14
Perkins   Mem   -.12   31   .460    4.2   8.2   1.1   4.7    .3   2.1   .9   -.28
Perkins   Dal   -.03   27   .568    5.6   7.5   1.8   3.0    .3   2.2  1.4   -.12
Perkins   tot   -.11   28   .486    5.3   8.4   1.1   4.4    .3   2.1  1.0   -.12
                                    
Sefolosha Den    .11   21   .463    7.7   7.6   1.6   2.5   2.1   1.1   .0    .50
Sefolosha Mem   -.06   20   .509    7.2   4.7   1.8   1.9    .8   2.8   .6   -.23
Sefolosha Dal    .14   20   .684    9.6   6.4   1.0   3.6   2.5    .7  1.1    .68
Sefolosha tot    .19   20   .557    8.1   6.1   1.5   2.6   1.7   1.6   .5    .26
                                    
Westbrook Den    .77   36   .494   25.4   6.2   7.4   3.4    .8   4.1   .4   2.04
Westbrook Mem   1.23   37   .503   24.0   5.4   9.7   3.3   1.7   4.7   .4   2.39
Westbrook Dal    .45   39   .466   20.6   5.0   4.5   2.8   1.5   4.6   .2   1.10
Westbrook tot   2.45   37   .490   23.3   5.5   7.5   3.2   1.4   4.5   .3   1.90

[Mike G]

After 3 games of the Finals, LeBron, Wade, and Nowitzki have 3 of the top 63 Win Shares totals in NBA/ABA playoff history.
http://bkref.com/tiny/mwRea
LeBron's 4.0 WS ranks #28 all-time. In 18 games, he's ahead of what he got in 20 playoff games in 2007.

The 3 superstars will play another 2 to 4 games, and at their current rate of playoff WS per minute, they may end the postseason ranked thus:

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WS/48  Win Shares thru3   goes5   rk   goes6   rk   goes7   rk
.241    LeBron     3.97    4.41   15    4.63   12    4.85    3
.234    Dirk       3.45    3.84   31    4.03   25    4.22   20
.226    Wade       3.36    3.73   37    3.92   29    4.10   23

Their WS/48 rates rank #26-36, among those 63 with at least 3.35 Win Shares in a postseason.
One of the 3 already holds the gold standard for dominance in a playoff run.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2009.html

[Mike G]

Update after 4 games

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WS/48   thru 4G  WS    goes6   rk   goes7   rk
.226    LeBron  3.94    4.35   16    4.56   14
.235    Wade    3.68    4.07   24    4.26   20
.225    Dirk    3.50    3.87   30    4.05   24

Things changed quickly, as LeBron bottomed out (by his standards), and Dirk also had a bad outing.
In the Finals, Wade is looking like Jordan, and LeBron has a Pippenesque line.

[Mike G]

Wow. Just noticed, LeBron actually lost .03 WS in game 4.
Dirk gained only .05, Wade .23 .

[Mike G]

For the whole 20 playoff games, through 5 games of the Finals:

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Min   WS/48  Win Shares thru5  goes6   rk   goes7   rk
881    .209    LeBron   3.84    4.03   26    4.22   21
787    .231    Wade     3.79    3.98   28    4.17   22
787    .225   Nowitzki  3.69    3.87   30    4.06   24

Only one prior instance of a Finals with 3 players reaching 4 playoff Win Shares and at least .200 WS/48 -- http://bkref.com/tiny/O4Og3
Dwight, Kobe, and Gasol went 23 playoff games to get there.

Only a few times when 2 Finalists reached 4.0 and .200: Dirk and Wade in '06; Billups and Ginobili '05; Jordan and Barkley '93.

With .200 WS/48 and at least 3.0 WS, add Duncan and LeBron '07; Billups and Shaq '04; Kobe and Shaq '01
Duncan and Robinson '99; Jordan and Stockton '97; Jordan and Hornacek '96; Jordan and Porter '92
- Bird, Olajuwon, and McHale in '86; Bird and Kareem '84
Kareem and Havlicek '74; Issel and Gilmore '73 (ABA); Wilt and Frazier '72; Issel and Beaty '71 (ABA)

[Mike G]

Final 2011 playoff eWins leaders

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eWins  eW/G    per36 rates     tm   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
4.16   .198   Dirk Nowitzki   Dal  21   39   .607   31.6   8.6   2.8   2.0    .5   2.9   .6   2.42
4.12   .196   Dwyane Wade     Mia  21   39   .563   27.6   7.5   5.0   2.4   1.5   2.9  1.2   2.40
4.06   .193   Lebron James    Mia  21   44   .552   22.6   7.8   6.1   2.2   1.4   2.6  1.0   2.11
3.04   .190   Derrick Rose    Chi  16   41   .496   27.5   4.4   7.6   1.9   1.2   3.3   .6   2.24
2.94   .173   Kevin Durant    Okl  17   43   .571   25.5   7.4   2.6   2.6    .8   2.1  1.0   1.99

2.45   .144 Russell Westbrook Okl  17   37   .490   23.3   5.5   7.5   3.2   1.4   4.5   .3   1.90
2.34   .111   Chris Bosh      Mia  21   40   .556   19.1   8.9   1.3   2.1    .7   1.8   .8   1.34
1.99   .153   Zach Randolph   Mem  13   40   .523   20.7  10.5   2.5   3.2   1.0   1.9   .7   1.91
1.97   .094   Jason Terry     Dal  21   33   .615   22.7   2.3   4.1   2.2   1.3   1.6   .2   1.39
1.96   .093   Jason Kidd      Dal  21   35   .570   11.0   5.4   9.3   1.8   2.0   2.8   .5   1.27

eWins  eW/G    per36 rates     tm   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.65   .274   Dwight Howard   Orl   6   43   .648   33.2  14.9    .4   3.6    .6   4.7  1.6   3.06
1.56   .092   James Harden    Okl  17   31   .620   16.5   6.3   4.5   3.1   1.4   1.8   .9   1.44
1.54   .118   Marc Gasol      Mem  13   40   .550   14.2  10.8   2.2   3.1   1.0   1.8  1.9   1.48
1.53   .096   Joakim Noah     Chi  16   33   .491   10.1  12.9   3.1   4.4   1.1   1.3  2.3   1.38
1.50   .094   Carlos Boozer   Chi  16   32   .498   15.9  12.8   2.3   3.6    .7   2.0   .5   1.42

1.50   .094   Luol Deng       Chi  16   43   .518   15.4   6.4   2.5   2.1   1.3   1.4   .5   1.05
1.43   .068   Shawn Marion    Dal  21   33   .506   13.4   8.1   3.1   2.8   1.1   1.9  1.0    .99
1.26   .105   Josh Smith      Atl  12   37   .443   15.2   9.1   3.0   3.3   1.1   2.2  1.8   1.38
1.21   .202   Chris Paul       NO   6   42   .650   24.1   6.5  10.1   1.6   1.6   3.2   .0   2.33
1.16   .055   Tyson Chandler  Dal  21   32   .613   10.3  11.9    .5   4.2    .7    .8  1.0    .82

eWins  eW/G    per36 rates     tm   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.15   .115   Kobe Bryant      LA  10   35   .527   25.7   4.2   3.9   2.4   1.7   3.2   .3   1.56
1.08   .120   Kevin Garnett   Bos   9   36   .472   15.2  12.1   3.0   3.0   1.9   2.1  1.0   1.59
1.05   .050   Jose Barea      Dal  21   19   .514   17.4   3.9   8.1   2.5    .5   2.1   .0   1.30
1.05   .087   Joe Johnson     Atl  12   41   .521   18.3   4.3   3.0   1.4   1.0   2.3   .1   1.01
1.04   .104   Andrew Bynum     LA  10   32   .584   19.1  13.2   1.0   3.8    .6   2.3  1.6   1.56

1.02   .079   Mike Conley     Mem  13   39   .470   13.2   3.8   6.8   2.8   1.0   2.2   .2   1.00
1.02   .113   Rajon Rondo     Bos   9   38   .498   14.4   5.6  10.4   1.7   1.1   3.5   .0   1.42
1.01   .112   Paul Pierce     Bos   9   38   .567   22.3   5.3   3.0   3.2   1.3   2.6   .4   1.41
.98    .081   Al Horford      Atl  12   39   .454   10.5   9.6   3.5   2.6    .4   1.3  1.0   1.00
.94    .104   Ray Allen       Bos   9   40   .696   20.9   3.7   2.4   2.1   1.1   1.0   .1   1.24

eWins  eW/G    per36 rates     tm   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.90   .090   Pau Gasol         LA  10   36   .487   13.5   9.4   4.3   3.4    .4   1.7  1.7   1.21
.84   .049   Serge Ibaka      Okl  17   29   .506   10.9   9.9    .3   4.9    .3   1.6  3.9    .84
.80   .067   Jamal Crawford   Atl  12   30   .499   19.5   1.6   2.9   1.6    .9   1.5   .4   1.07
.72   .145   Manu Ginobili     SA   5   29   .569   25.3   4.5   4.5   2.7   2.7   3.6   .6   1.99
.67   .168   Carmelo Anthony   NY   4   39   .495   24.4  10.0   4.1   3.7   1.2   3.0   .7   2.06

.65   .108  Lamarcus Aldridge Por   6   43   .492   16.3   6.9   1.1   2.7   1.1   1.3  1.4   1.20
.64   .106   Gerald Wallace   Por   6   38   .548   15.9   9.8   2.6   3.1   1.3   2.4   .5   1.36
.63   .105   Tony Parker       SA   6   37   .520   20.8   2.8   5.4   1.7   1.3   3.3   .3   1.36
.62   .104   Jameer Nelson    Orl   6   36   .444   13.9   4.8   6.0   2.4   2.1   1.4   .0   1.39
.62   .125   Danny Granger    Ind   5   37   .551   22.5   5.5   3.1   2.4   1.2   1.4   .2   1.62
.62   .036   Nick Collison    Okl  17   24   .661   10.4   8.7   1.3   5.3   1.3   1.1  1.2    .74

[Mike G]

Playoff Team over and underachievers, based on their season SRS, their avg opponent SRS, and their avg margin of victory (MOV).
The 'over' column is 'extra' points created, relative to their opposition: G*(MOV-expMOV)

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over    tm    G    SRS   OpSRS expMOV   MOV    1st   srs    2nd   srs    3rd   srs    4th   srs
124    Dal   21    4.4    4.6    -.2    5.7    Por   1.9    LAL   6.0    Okl   3.8    Mia   6.8
+34    Okl   17    3.8    3.9    -.1    1.9    Den   4.8    Mem   2.6    Dal   4.4        
+29    Atl   12   -1.1    5.7   -6.8   -4.4    Orl   4.9    Chi   6.5                
+21    Mem   13    2.6    4.8   -2.3   -0.7    SAS   5.9    Okl   3.8                

+ 3    Mia   21    6.8    4.2    2.6    2.7    Phl   1.0    Bos   4.8    Chi   6.5    Dal   4.4
+ 3    Ind    5   -1.4    6.5   -7.9   -7.4    Chi   6.5                        
+ 2    Bos    9    4.8    3.6    1.2    1.4    NYK    .5    Mia   6.8                
- 8    Phl    5    1.0    6.8   -5.8   -7.4    Mia   6.8                        

over    tm    G    SRS   OpSRS expMOV   MOV    1st   srs    2nd   srs    3rd   srs    4th   srs
-14    Chi   16    6.5    1.4    5.1    4.2    Ind  -1.4    Atl  -1.1    Mia   6.8        
-15    NOH    6    1.3    6.0   -4.7   -7.2    LAL   6.0                        
-15    Por    6    1.9    4.4   -2.6   -5.1    Dal   4.4                        
-17    NYK    4     .5    4.8   -4.4   -8.5    Bos   4.8                        

-25    Orl    6    4.9   -1.1    6.0    1.9    Atl  -1.1                        
-29    Den    5    4.8    3.8    1.0   -4.8    Okl   3.8                        
-39    SAS    6    5.9    2.6    3.3   -3.2    Mem   2.6                        
-45    LAL   10    6.0    2.8    3.2   -1.3    NOH   1.3    Dal   4.4                

One can deduce each series from this table. Take the Bulls. The Pacers were +3, so the Bulls were -3 in round 1.
The Hawks wind up at +29, after gaining 25 vs the Magic (who were -25). Thus the Bulls were -4 vs the Hawks.
To reach -14, Chicago then must have been -7 vs Miami.

[Mike G]

Here's my best (so far) synopsis of players who overachieved in these playoffs, relative to their regular seasons' rates.
Best fit (for 160 players) was achieved by subtracting .2124 from their RS eW/484 rates to get 'expected' playoff eW/480.
Anyone whose PO eW/480 is more than .2124 reduced from his RS rate is judged to have 'underachieved' in playoffs.

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overachievers in playoffs: eWins beyond expectations, rates             Regular Season per36
eW+    per36 rates    tm    G    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e480      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484   
.83   Harden,James   Okl   17   .620   16.5   6.3   4.5   1.44     .583   16.4   4.2   2.8    .91   
.76   Terry,Jason    Dal   21   .615   22.7   2.3   4.1   1.39     .540   18.5   2.2   4.7   1.06   
.63   Collison,Nick  Okl   17   .661   10.4   8.7   1.3    .74     .591    7.6   7.2   1.6    .22   
.59   Nowitzki,Dirk  Dal   21   .607   31.6   8.6   2.8   2.42     .600   28.9   8.2   3.0   2.28   
.49   Anthony,Joel   Mia   21   .528    3.4   7.1    .9    .01     .565    3.9   6.6   .6    -.19
   
.48   Kidd,Jason     Dal   21   .570   11.0   5.4   9.3   1.27     .496    9.1   5.3   9.8   1.17   
.45   Barea,Jose     Dal   21   .514   17.4   3.9   8.1   1.30     .529   15.7   3.3   6.5    .96   
.45   Gasol,Marc     Mem   13   .550   14.2  10.8   2.2   1.48     .567   15.3   9.2   2.9   1.27   
.42   Crawford,Jamal Atl   12   .499   19.5   1.6   2.9   1.07     .536   16.8   2.1   3.3    .73   
.41  Vasquez,Greivis Mem   13   .593   15.9   4.7   6.5   1.39     .488    8.8   2.9   5.4    .22 
 
eW+    playoff per36  tm    G    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e480      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484   
.38   Howard,Dwight  Orl    6   .648   33.2  14.9    .4   3.06     .594   26.7  15.4   1.5   2.57   
.32   Chalmers,Mario Mia   21   .599   13.4   3.1   3.7    .57     .533   10.7   3.5   4.4    .49   
.31   Artest,Ron      LA   10   .534   13.2   6.4   2.9    .88     .480   11.1   4.4   2.9    .58   
.29   Fisher,Derek    LA   10   .538   10.2   3.6   4.4    .56     .481    9.4   2.7   4.0    .34   
.28   Hinrich,Kirk   Atl    6   .581   15.2   3.1   3.5   1.02     .527   12.0   3.2   4.1    .47
   
.27   Maynor,Eric    Okl   17   .477   12.3   3.5   6.8    .84     .480    8.5   3.3   6.5    .46   
.26   Paul,Chris      NO    6   .650   24.1   6.5  10.1   2.33     .566   18.7   4.8  10.0   2.04   
.26   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   21   .563   27.6   7.5   5.0   2.40     .568   29.0   7.1   5.2   2.46   
.22   Teague,Jeff    Atl    6   .582   16.1   2.9   4.0    .93     .512   12.3   3.6   4.4    .68   
.21   Ariza,Trevor    NO    6   .484   13.4   6.6   3.4    .96     .480   12.2   6.6   2.3    .75   
.21  O'Neal,Jermaine Bos    9   .547   10.3   7.9   1.7    .74     .494   11.2   7.7   1.0    .44   

DWade's eWins/480 dropped the slightest bit in the playoffs, but it was less than the average drop of .21
eW+ sum to zero for 160 players.
Here are "underachievers":

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eW+     playoff per36  tm    G    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e480  RS:  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.90   James,Lebron   Mia   21   .552   22.6   7.8   6.1   2.11      .581   29.4   7.9   7.6   2.79
-.67   Chandler,Tyson Dal   21   .613   10.3  11.9    .5    .82      .674   17.0  13.6    .6   1.50
-.55   Horford,Al     Atl   12   .454   10.5   9.6   3.5   1.00      .580   18.4  10.8   3.6   1.77
-.49   Boozer,Carlos  Chi   16   .498   15.9  12.8   2.3   1.42      .534   23.5  12.8   3.2   2.10
-.48   Bryant,Kobe     LA   10   .527   25.7   4.2   3.9   1.56      .538   30.5   6.0   5.5   2.43

-.47 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   17   .486    5.3   8.4   1.1   -.12      .500    7.6  13.0   1.5    .56
-.46   Gasol,Pau       LA   10   .487   13.5   9.4   4.3   1.21      .577   21.5  10.8   3.6   2.04
-.36   Anderson,Ryan  Orl    6   .424    4.9   6.9    .8    .03      .585   18.8   9.3   1.3   1.41
-.32  Stojakovic,Peja Dal   19   .593   12.8   3.5    .8    .29      .560   16.8   5.0   1.7    .94
-.31   Okafor,Emeka    NO    6   .603    9.8   7.2    .0    .19      .570   14.1  12.8    .7   1.20

eW+     playoff per36  tm    G    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e480  RS:  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.29   Allen,Tony     Mem   13   .474   11.6   4.2   2.4    .48      .551   16.2   5.0   2.4   1.08
-.28  Matthews,Wesley Por    6   .586   14.4   1.4   1.0    .20      .572   19.8   3.9   2.2   1.08
-.26  Stoudemire,Amare NY    4   .433   14.7   8.9   1.8    .77      .553   25.3   8.4   2.8   1.93
-.26   Davis,Glen     Bos    9   .428    7.2   6.1   1.6   -.01      .490   14.6   6.9   1.4    .84
-.25   Bibby,Mike     Mia   20   .393    5.7   3.7   2.9   -.12      .597   11.5   3.3   3.8    .37

-.23   Bosh,Chris     Mia   21   .556   19.1   8.9   1.3   1.34      .557   21.4   9.4   2.2   1.69
-.23   Odom,Lamar      LA   10   .518   15.3   9.3   2.8   1.02      .581   18.1  10.1   3.6   1.61
-.23   Belinelli,Marco NO    6   .446   10.3   1.2   1.0   -.07      .555   18.0   3.3   1.8    .77
-.22   Duncan,Tim      SA    6   .494   13.1  11.7   3.0   1.37      .529   18.8  12.8   3.8   2.07
-.21 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por    6   .492   16.3   6.9   1.1   1.20      .540   22.4   9.3   2.0   1.81
-.21   Batum,Nicolas  Por    6   .500   10.3   2.5   1.8    .10      .557   16.3   6.0   1.9    .99

Even more than for the regular season, such a list makes me uncomfortable. A first round underachiever -- Duncan, LaMarcus, Ryan Anderson -- may result in a very short postseason for his team. LeBron was pretty great for 3 rounds.
Tyson Chandler a disappointment? Well, his PER dropped from 18.4 to 15.2 (RS to PO) and his WS/48 from .218 to .188.

[Mike G]

While eWins per 48 minutes, season to playoffs, averaged a decline of .0212, the avg decline in Win Shares was .0316 .
Adding this .0316 to everyone's playoff WS/48, a playoff overachievement is calculated:
WS+ = (PO + .0316 - RS)*Min/48
where PO and RS are WS/48 for playoff and regular season.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... stats.html
Weighted by minutes, the overs and unders sum to zero.

Hoping to fit both over- and under-achievers in one view. If anyone's screen is too narrow, I can break them up.

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playoff overachievers   Reg Sea   Playoffs - - -      playoff underachievers   Reg Sea   Playoffs - - -
WS+    Player       Tm   WS/48   Min   WS/48   WS      ws+    Player       Tm   WS/48   Min   WS/48   WS
1.58  Jason Terry   DAL   .100   684   .179   2.55    -.75   Al Horford    ATL   .179   468   .070   .68
.90   Kevin Durant  OKC   .189   722   .217   3.26    -.70   Mike Bibby    MIA   .084   415  -.029  -.25
.82   Nick Collison OKC   .113   413   .177   1.52    -.66   Tony Allen    MEM   .152   350   .030   .22
.77   James Harden  OKC   .156   537   .193   2.16    -.64   Pau Gasol     LAL   .232   358   .115   .86
.68   Ray Allen     BOS   .166   361   .225   1.69    -.58   R Westbrook   OKC   .159   638   .084  1.12

.57   Jason Kidd    DAL   .116   744   .121   1.88    -.44   M Belinelli   NOH   .084   173  -.070  -.25
.56  Mario Chalmers MIA   .089   511   .110   1.17    -.42   Jeff Green    BOS   .194   173   .046   .17
.51   Dwyane Wade   MIA   .218   828   .216   3.73    -.41   Udonis Haslem MIA   .130   290   .030   .18
.49   Dirk Nowitzki DAL   .213   826   .210   3.61    -.41   Josh Smith    ATL   .116   438   .040   .37
.47   Luol Deng     CHI   .149   687   .150   2.15    -.40   Lamar Odom    LAL   .184   286   .086   .51

.46   Gr Vasquez    MEM   .030   142   .154    .46    -.39   Hedo Turkoglu ORL   .143   209   .022   .10
.42   Marc Gasol    MEM   .146   519   .153   1.65    -.39   T Hansbrough  IND   .118   164  -.027  -.09
.41   Kirk Hinrich  ATL   .050   173   .132    .48    -.38   Tim Duncan    SAS   .171   212   .053   .23
.40   Jeff Teague   ATL   .083   238   .132    .65    -.37   A Stoudemire  NYK   .134   134  -.031  -.09
.38   Ron Artest    LAL   .087   287   .119    .71    -.36   Kobe Bryant   LAL   .179   354   .099   .73

playoff overachievers   Reg Sea   Playoffs - - -      playoff underachievers   Reg Sea   Playoffs - - -
WS+    Player       Tm   WS/48   Min   WS/48   WS      ws+    Player       Tm   WS/48   Min   WS/48   WS
.37   Derek Fisher  LAL   .078   325   .101    .68    -.35   Emeka Okafor  NOH   .136   188   .016   .06
.36   J O'Neal      BOS   .065   197   .120    .49    -.34   Landry Fields NYK   .100    71  -.163  -.24
.31   Jose Barea    DAL   .093   390   .100    .81    -.34  Thaddeus Young PHI   .139   127  -.020  -.05
.31   Danny Granger IND   .120   183   .170    .65    -.33   LaM Aldridge  POR   .166   258   .073   .39
.31   O.J. Mayo     MEM   .062   362   .071    .54    -.32   J.J. Redick   ORL   .143   120  -.018  -.05

.30  Jamal Crawford ATL   .071   358   .079    .59    -.32   Jarrett Jack  NOH   .082   111  -.088  -.20
.26   Q Richardson  ORL   .068    98   .165    .34    -.31   Nazr Mohammed OKC   .139   148   .006   .02
.25   Ronnie Brewer CHI   .147   260   .162    .88    -.31   Nicolas Batum POR   .126   151  -.003  -.01
.25   Taj Gibson    CHI   .143   284   .153    .91    -.30   Paul Pierce   BOS   .201   343   .128   .91

Many of the same names as in the eWins+ lists, but --
LeBron checks in at -.26 WS; dropping from .244 to .199 ws/48, about 150% of avg dropoff.
I had Durant dropping slightly from .213 to .199 in eW/48 -- just +.11 eW above expectation. This might be explained by my summing his eWins from each series, rather than from his whole playoffs. A huge topic in itself.

[Mike G]

Small error: Avg WS/48 was reduced by .0331 in these playoffs. The ranking order in previous post should not change much.
Other advanced stat averages for playoff teams, season and playoffs:

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2011   PER     TS%    eFG%    ORb%     DRb%    TRb%
RS    15.4    .537    .497    5.03    14.55    9.88
PO    14.2    .514    .478    4.72    13.95    9.31
diff  -1.24  -.022   -.019    -.31     -.60    -.57
                        
2011   Ast%    Stl%    Blk%     TO%      Usg%    ORtg     DRtg
RS    14.67    1.58    1.49    12.58    19.45    107.1    102.1
PO    14.27    1.62    1.57    11.52    19.93    103.7    103.8
diff   -.40    +.04    +.08    -1.06     +.48     -3.4     +1.7

[Mike G]

Player ORtg dropped an avg of 3.4 while DRtg rose by an avg 1.7 .
It seems playoff teams were more defensively superior than they were offensively, relative to league avg.
Also, defense is where one can improve just by 'playing harder', not always true on offense.

Odd that player TO% goes down while Stl% is slightly up.
If TS% is depressed more than eFG% is, did playoff teams shoot fewer FT, or shoot them worse?

[Crow]

"Player ORtg dropped an avg of 3.4 while DRtg rose by an avg 1.7."

I get different net change numbers on team level than this data at player level when I use the regular season data of just the playoff teams weighted by their number of playoff games played. I assume your regular season figures in the above table were all teams equally weighted, so these are different comparisons. Correct?

Regular season Offensive Rating of playoff teams fell from 109.1 to 106.0 or -3.1 (compared to -3.4 at player level). Defensive Rating went from 104.6 to 106.0 or a -1.4 weakening (compared to +1.7 at player level). I calculated this by comparing data from B-R for team playoff averages to the average for playoff game weighted regular season data for playoff teams.

[I also don't think player Offensive and Defensive Ratings exactly match with the comparable team ratings in the current time period. Maybe they would have been closer when the formulas were created (the game stats may have changed proportions a bit since then and with static stat weights everything may no longer balance perfectly). Maybe they would have been even closer if all possessions were included and treated the same in both; but for certain possessions, I don't think they are based on a brief look at the issue previously. I believe there is a difference is how pace is calculated then used which may explain much of the variance of these numbers at individual and team levels.]

Perhaps the change in strength of schedule is also affecting the numbers? The average regular season SOS for playoff teams was -0.2. The playoff game weighted average regular season SRS for playoff teams was +3.9.

Using my team level data, the average team performance decline by 3.1 on offense and 1.4 on defense compared to regular season data or 4.5 total. They faced teams with an SRS of 3.9 better in the playoffs than regular season and the regular season records came from average schedules against slightly weaker (-0.2) than league average SOS. Adjusting for the weaker than neutral SOS, the amount of increased contextual difficulty from a neutral SOS regular season basis to the playoffs would be 3.7. Somewhere another 0.8 weakening on team net rating per 100 possessions occurred, presumably on the court. But is that the only additional weakening of performance beyond that caused by or at least expected by a tougher playoff context compared to regular season? That is what I come up with.



"If TS% is depressed more than eFG% is, did playoff teams shoot fewer FT, or shoot them worse?"

No, based on B-R data, playoff team average FTM. FTA, FT% and FT / FGA all increased in the playoffs from regular season.

(I first looked at regular season average for all teams compared to the playoff averages and they all increased; but then I weighted the regular season by the teams actually in the playoffs and for the amount of games they played. The story is still the same though the amount of the increases is lower since these playoff teams were higher on all these stats than the regular season averages.)

It appears that the decline in eFG% and TS% for playoff teams compared to the playoff game weighted average of their regular season data is fueled entirely by a decline in FG%, not free throw related activity. It appears to be a proportionate decline on 2 pt and 3 pt attempts. 3 percentage point decline on 2 pt shots and effectively a 3 percentage point decline on 3 pt shots.

[There is more of an increase in 3 pt attempts as a % of total FGAs if one looks at regular season average for all teams vs average for just playoff teams (about 1 percentage point) but for a fair comparison of just playoff teams against their playoff game weighted regular season data the increase is very tiny and not anywhere near as impactful as the much larger changes in FG%s.]

[Mike G]

"Player ORtg dropped an avg of 3.4 while DRtg rose by an avg 1.7."
... I assume your regular season figures in the above table were all teams equally weighted, so these are different comparisons. Correct?

Regular season Offensive Rating of playoff teams fell from 109.1 to 106.0 or -3.1 (compared to -3.4 at player level). Defensive Rating went from 104.6 to 106.0 or a -1.4 weakening (compared to +1.7 at player level)....

I just copied 'advanced stats' from b-r.com and weighted them by minutes. Maybe it's just that some teams averaged more minutes per game?
In any case, I got an average player DRtg 'weakening' of 1.66 -- from 102.96 RS to 104.62 PO.
That 102.96 is their RS DRtg weighted by their PO minutes.
ORtg weighted by PO minutes was 104.68, down from 108.1 in the RS. A few omitted players with few minutes would seem to account for the difference.

Team over/unders, by SRS comparison (several posts up), led by Dallas' +124 points vs the competition, 16 teams total +8.1 .
Over 81 playoff games, that's 0.1 seeming extra points per game. Possibly just rounding errors.

[Mike G]

In about half of all playoff series this year, the 2 best players were on the winning team.
Some are arguable, and I've included both eWins and eWins per 480 minutes.
Also the best eW and e480 for the losing team.

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1st Round
eWins   Dal - Por      tm     e480
1.31   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal    2.72
.77    Kidd,Jason      Dal    1.79
.65  Aldridge,Lamarcu  Por    1.20
.64    Wallace,Gerald  Por    1.36

eWins   Okl - Den      tm     e480
1.02   Durant,Kevin    Okl    2.32
.77   Westbrook,Russel Okl    2.04
.44    Hilario,Nene    Den    1.31
.44    Ibaka,Serge     Okl    1.34

eWins   Chi - Ind      tm     e480
.99    Rose,Derrick    Chi    2.44
.62    Granger,Danny   Ind    1.62
.61    Noah,Joakim     Chi    1.82

eWins   Mia - Phl      tm     e480
1.19   James,Lebron    Mia    2.70
1.06   Wade,Dwyane     Mia    2.68
.64    Bosh,Chris      Mia    1.54
.43    Holiday,Jrue    Phl    1.12

Round 2
eWins    Mia - Bos     tm     e480
1.20   Wade,Dwyane     Mia    2.82
1.02   James,Lebron    Mia    2.20
.53    Garnett,Kevin   Bos    1.33
.52    Pierce,Paul     Bos    1.32

eWins    Chi - Atl     tm     e480
1.43   Rose,Derrick    Chi    2.79
.68    Smith,Josh      Atl    1.42
.61    Boozer,Carlos   Chi    1.55

eWins    Okl - Mem     tm     e480
1.23  Westbrook,Russel Okl    2.26
1.09   Durant,Kevin    Okl    1.81
.94    Randolph,Zach   Mem    1.56
.85    Gasol,Marc      Mem    1.49
.77    Harden,James    Okl    1.64

eWins    Dal - LA      tm     e480
.77    Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal    2.45
.60    Terry,Jason     Dal    2.34
.38    Barea,Jose      Dal    2.52
.31    Bryant,Kobe     LA     1.01
.28    Kidd,Jason      Dal    1.05

Conference Finals
eWins    Mia - Chi     tm     e480
1.22   James,Lebron    Mia    2.59
.84    Bosh,Chris      Mia    1.95
.62    Rose,Derrick    Chi    1.41
.59    Boozer,Carlos   Chi    1.69