Brad Stevens- analytic coach. The next level of application?

[Crow]

http://nesn.com/2013/07/brad-stevens-hi ... -to-bench/

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--in-nb ... 40647.html

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... -quant-guy

How much does he really use advanced analytics and is he willing to go further? How much did this issue influence his hire?

[PD123]

How much does he really use advanced analytics and is he willing to go further?

I'm going to go with "a lot," as long as this piece is even remotely accurate (and I have no reason to believe otherwise): http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/-colle ... on-butler/

[JonCBK]

Did he bring the kid with him is the question.

[PD123]

Did he bring the kid with him is the question.

I haven't seen anything official about it and the only thing I've seen to that effect is that Draft Express sent out a tweet that wished the kid luck in Boston (which isn't really anything to hang my hat on), but I'd be surprised if he didn't. Regardless, I think the point isn't as much about Drew Cannon himself as it is about what he represents; mainly the fact that Stevens is very clearly receptive to analytic perspectives and if you put it in front of him, he'll see what he can glean from it.

[Crow]

Announcement press conferences are typically surface (even vacuous). I question the gushing fandom of Rondo out out of the gate though. I would have been more reserved to allow more study first.

Since the 2008 title the overall Celtic offensive efficiency declined 3 straight years followed by a modest rebound to a still well below league average 103 (24th place). Offense with him actually on the court this past season was at 102 (the third on the court decline in 4 years).

Assists to 3 point shooters fell from about 1/3rd in the title season to about 1/5th this season and last. Boston is an long-time (since the last title), excessive mid-range shooting team (worst shot in the game) and Rondo's decision-making is probably a key part of that. Others know the college game far better than me but a quick check on recent stats does not suggest Steven's Butler teams were prolific or great 3 point shooting teams. I also have concerns that having a starting PG (Rondo) who is a poor 3 point shooter is a liability as well.

Rondo's RAPM has been improving year to year but the team's performance has been declining and so it doesn't absolve him.

Lots of people have left and the relationship with Rondo is probably part of the reasoning for some of them. Rondo's winshares per 48 minutes? 4 straight regular seasons of decline. Before the injury. 5 playoff seasons between average and good (.150) on ws/48. Do you balance and evaluate these things or just profess love for him?

Gush over him out of the gate if he wants. It is the expected and easier thing to do. Now he'll have to try to make it work with him, well enough to get back to contention, some day. I doubt he gets there without a major change in team shot distribution and probably ball control distribution and thus a major change in the Rondo he just announced himself as the biggest fan of, as is.

[Crow]

Should Cannon get credit for peddling small sample size lineup (and sub-lineup) data and analysis? He apparently is with Stevens and the some of the media. But should he? Either the practice has at least some merit or it doesn't, for one and all. Everyone will have their own opinion about that, hopefully consistent.

[Bobbofitos]

im sure stevens' gushing of rondo was surface-level. what do you expect him to do - bash him out of the gate? obv he has to be political there. rondo is not very good but it's silly to kill his value... gotta pump pump pump him up.

once sold you can reveal your hand but until that happens, in the eyes of stevens, rondo is the GOAT.

[Crow]

He could have said something like "we will look at everything and everyone to get better because we have to get a lot better to achieve our goal". He talked none at all about any other player in the opening press conference so he could have deferred on Rondo by saying the above despite the specific question.



Lineup data analysis (inevitably mostly small sample) is often criticized when done by outsiders but if a guy is getting the Celtics head coaching job long-term in at least some small part because he listened to and used this type of information that seems worth noting and thinking about. How much did it help Stevens at Butler? Anyone want to prepare a review of Butler lineup change over time and vs type of opponents to check how it actually impacted team play? Does the hype match the facts? Is it essentially a frill (compared to other efforts / strengths) or even an effective marketing badge (to get attention for a top job) or was it actually important and worth doing deeper and more widely in the NBA?

Has he ever used statistical or adjusted plus minus or other more intensive / innovative analysis? What is his posture toward actively using it? Will anyone ask soon? What truly advanced are the Celtics already doing / using? Any visible signs of it being used and being effective? Raw lineup data analysis is pretty darn primitive IMO and not enough to be anointed an apostle of a truly new advanced analytics driven age. But it would still be something happening (and to watch), in a league where proof of use of analytics and effective use is not yet that strong.

[NBAMetrics]

I'm assuming the fact Rivers was somewhat hesitant to lean on advanced stats and Stevens is so stats-friendly is a sign we'll be seeing a lot more evidence of the Celtics' front office (and Zarren's in particular) use of analytics. I'd expect the same, maybe to a lesser degree, from Memphis.

I'd definitely think Rondo is on the way out, not only does his style of play not exactly lend itself to high EV shots, I don't think Ainge is going to be too crazy about handing Stevens a difficult to handle player like Rondo as the face of the franchise. The question is do they try to trade him before the season or wait until he's healthy to try and drive up his trade value. Not exactly a huge market for point guards right now.

[talkingpractice]

Did he bring the kid with him is the question.

They announced this morning that Cannon is indeed coming with him.

[Crow]

Has anyone studied what he did there in detail? Anyone know (from Ken Pom or otherwise) how many top 30 or 65 teams he beat year to year, what was the trend and what was expected based on overall RPI or net rating or other measure? How much of his success was good recruits, player development vs in game coaching? How good was he against coaches who faced him before (mostly in conference? Any reason to say that his coaching talent was accentuated by the one game sudden-death style NCAA tournament format? Any commentary from knowledgeable observers would be interesting to read.