How many teams have a 10+% chance to win title next season?

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:24 pm

On surface it seems like 10-12 teams might but how many do you think really do?

v-zero · Post by **v-zero** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:42 pm

10% is quite a big chunk with Miami hanging over the league. Maybe three.

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:45 pm

Do you give the Heat a 25-40% to win the next title, more or a lot more? That indeed is a key part of this calculation.

v-zero · Post by **v-zero** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:47 pm

I give the heat about a 35% chance.

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:52 pm

Sounds about right to me.

mbosset · Post by **mbosset** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 7:05 pm

I think besides Miami the large amount of parody really diminishes this number. With up to 3 teams from the east (besides Miami), and 6 in the West. This leads to 9 teams splitting the remaining 65%( If Miami is given around 35%, which I feel is correct). This is also not accounting for small percentages given to relative long-shots (The Knicks for example). I would say that besides Miami; OKC, Memphis, and Indiana are the only other teams with 10+%.

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 7:08 pm

I might give the Spurs at least a bare 10%. More if they make one more good move.

Maybe one more team makes my list beyond yours but fairly doubtful. After briefly liking the Clips' recent moves, I found myself thinking last night that they might be the contending team in the west most likely to disappoint or disappoint the most but it was a surface review of them.

ed küpfer · Post by **ed küpfer** » Thu Jul 11, 2013 8:47 pm

FWIW there's some historical data here on Vegas odds, and they seem to have 2-3 teams in the middle of the offseason with 10% chance at the championship.

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:02 am

Thanks for the reference Ed. It could be debated whether the Vegas odds team by team = the best / true odds or the odds of non bookmaker analysts, especially for the very best and very worst teams.

xkonk · Post by **xkonk** » Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:38 pm

The top five teams by odds on Bovada right now: Miami 2:1, OKC 6:1, Houston 9:1, Chicago 10:1, and Clippers/Spurs both 12:1 (at the low end: Magic, 76ers, and Suns at 300:1). I have a tough time deciding if these numbers would be a) mostly public money because 'sharps' are waiting for line-ups to settle down or b) mostly 'sharp' money because it's too far away from the season for the public to care/put their money on hold for that long. Either way, they obviously aren't the 'proper' odds since the casino has to make their money somehow. From the teams mentioned previously, it sounds like maybe people think the Spurs, Grizzlies, and Pacers would have value?

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:41 pm

I said recently that I thought the Pacers had value at their then current odds and maybe the Griz. The Nets do too, after the recent add, though the odds are not near as sweet as they were a day or week ago.

Dr Positivity · Post by **Dr Positivity** » Sat Jul 13, 2013 4:02 pm

Basically nobody in the East but MIA can be over 10%. The problem is that if MIA has a 60-70% chance of winning the East, you're already looking at a barely 10-15% chance of any of BKN, IND, CHI and that's before the presumable 50/50 chance they win in the Finals

Guessing

East champ - 70% MIA
10% BKN
10% IND
8% CHI
2% NYK or WTF? team

60% chance MIA wins in the Finals and 50% for the rest, would make it MIA - 40%, BKN - 5%, IND - 5%, CHI - 5%, NYK or WTF? team - 1%

That adds up to 56%. Leaving 44% for

SAS - 13%
HOU - 11%
OKC - 9%
MEM - 5%
LAC - 4%
GSW or WTF? - 2%

I think you can make the case for all of SAS, HOU and OKC outside of MIA, but not all three of them at once

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Sat Jul 13, 2013 4:17 pm

70% MIA to win east seems high to me with the threat of injury to one or more of Miami's top 4 being the main reason. I'd give Indiana at least a 15% chance to win east and perhaps even 20% with their stable core and good match-up with Miami. Haven't really looked at Nets' match-up with Heat and Pacers yet to give them a reasoned estimate.

Crow · Post by **Crow** » Sat Jul 13, 2013 4:51 pm

Many fans of contenders probably think their team has a 25+% chance to win a title. It seems pretty clear that only one team's fans have a strong case for that. It is a stretch to think that any other team can meet this standard but there would only be room for one more at most if they were clearly superior to the rest and almost certainly in the west.

Jacob Frankel · Post by **Jacob Frankel** » Sat Jul 13, 2013 5:02 pm

I agree with Crow here, and might even be more optimistic on Indiana's chances. I'd put the Eastern champ odds like this:
Miami 55%
Indiana 30%
Brooklyn 10%
Chicago 5%

Really not a fan of the Nets. So much risk for injury on that team. Also not a good matchup against Miami. No rim protector, and Kirilenko will only be able to do so much against LeBron. Not like Lopez will be able to dominate the offensive boards either.

APBRmetrics