While debating the merits of SportsVU's contested rebounding percentage, I ran into an interesting question.
What is the value of a missed rebound? Say you battle with an opponent to secure a rebound, and lose out. Would you have lost your team a possession?
If that is true, then statistically, it would be better to not contest a rebound (0 possessions lost/gained), then to try for it and lose (-1). Obviously that isn't true, as there is no negative effect for TRYING to get a rebound and failing, as opposed to letting it go by.
That would essentially make SportsVU's new CRB% useless, correct?
Contested Rebounding Percentage Question
Re: Contested Rebounding Percentage Question
What is this 'contested rebound percentage'? Is it -
- the % of your recorded rebounds which were contested?
- the % of contested rebounds which you secured?
Not sure I see how either one is useful. A big and slow guy may have a high % of uncontested rebounds, and yet lose most of those which are contested. A smaller, quicker guy may have opposite tendencies.
- the % of your recorded rebounds which were contested?
- the % of contested rebounds which you secured?
Not sure I see how either one is useful. A big and slow guy may have a high % of uncontested rebounds, and yet lose most of those which are contested. A smaller, quicker guy may have opposite tendencies.
Re: Contested Rebounding Percentage Question
Its percentage of contested rebounds secured.
I thought of it like I think of TS%. You can't directly compare TS% of someone who shoots 20 times a game, and somebody who shoots 5 times a game. But when matching it up against players with similar shot attempts (or rebound attempts), it can help you sort out the better scorer/rebounder.
I was originally thinking of CRB% in this way. If you secure 75% of 100 contested rebounds, you get a +75 (for gained possessions), but lose -25 for lost possessions. However, this would favor NOT trying to get rebounds, which isn't a good thing.
Based on that principle, the SportsVU rebounding data would only be useful by eliminating the "stolen" rebounds from a player's rebound total (the rebounds that would have been secured anyway, worth essentially +0).
Make sense?
I thought of it like I think of TS%. You can't directly compare TS% of someone who shoots 20 times a game, and somebody who shoots 5 times a game. But when matching it up against players with similar shot attempts (or rebound attempts), it can help you sort out the better scorer/rebounder.
I was originally thinking of CRB% in this way. If you secure 75% of 100 contested rebounds, you get a +75 (for gained possessions), but lose -25 for lost possessions. However, this would favor NOT trying to get rebounds, which isn't a good thing.
Based on that principle, the SportsVU rebounding data would only be useful by eliminating the "stolen" rebounds from a player's rebound total (the rebounds that would have been secured anyway, worth essentially +0).
Make sense?
Re: Contested Rebounding Percentage Question
Perhaps this shows that Mike G's first statistic is a better indicator of rebounding. What % of a players rebounds which are contested can be very helpful in determining how many of his rebounds were necessary to changing possession, or instead just a product of him beating his teammate to the board.
Re: Contested Rebounding Percentage Question
It's important to note from a coaching perspective that contested rebounding can be a tricky stat to watch. You need to know if a player is pulling down more contested rebounds because either A) he players more or B) because he is really good or really bad at gaining space against his individual man to rebound.
Re: Contested Rebounding Percentage Question
SportVU has a stat (I believe adjusted rebound %) also adjusts for any rebounds deferred to teammates. This will eliminate any bias for not fighting for a rebound against overzealous teammates.