Predictions 2013-14

[mark kieffer]

Also going back to the Nuggets: SCHOENE has them finishing 7th in the west...

[Mike G]

Minutes / 82

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.Utah    2013  2014
Favors    22    30
Hayward   26    32
Kanter    13    22
Williams  21    24
Burks     14    24
Lucas     10    14
Biedrins   6    12
Evans      3    10
Jefferson  7    12
Mcguire    3    10
Holiday    2    10
Rush       0     8
Machado    0     8
.Jazz    126   216

When I gave them their 2012 minutes, they were expected to win -5 games.

Also going back to the Nuggets: SCHOENE has them finishing 7th in the west...

I have them 3 wins better than 7th in the West.

[mark kieffer]

Lucas is going to start at the point, Machado is going to play significant minutes too probably, especially if Burke is out for a while
Jefferson has been playing more like 20 mins/game in the preseason, so you have to figure he will have significant minutes as long as he stays healthy.

Also probably the tough thing with your model is that you are using career data or previous year data, correct? Or do you have players at a trajectory? Is it assumed some of the younger players improve this year or no?

[mark kieffer]

[/quote]I have them 3 wins better than 7th in the West.[/quote]

The difference is the win total. Pelton has them winning 44 games instead of 52 or 54 or whatever you have.

[Bobbofitos]

My predictions will be submitted in a week

[Mike G]

Or do you have players at a trajectory? Is it assumed some of the younger players improve this year or no?

I assume the younger players may take more minutes if necessary, while older players usually get less.
In the case of Utah, I gave extra minutes to older players and to younger players. I would guess the aging players' minutes would be at less than last year's rates, offsetting gains made by the youngsters.

Once I have seen teams' final rosters, I'll go to the trouble to get an average age (minutes weighted) and adjust their expected wins accordingly.
Lucas, Jefferson, and Biedrins are players I didn't expect to even be in the league, and I'm giving them 38 minutes a game (total).

[mark kieffer]

Probably should up it to like 60

[Mike G]

Lucas is going to start at the point, Machado is going to play significant minutes too probably, especially if Burke is out for a while
Jefferson has been playing more like 20 mins/game in the preseason, so you have to figure he will have significant minutes as long as he stays healthy.

Lucas, through age 30, has started 2 NBA games. He's played in 174 games over 8 years, at 11.8 mpg. Do you have some information that he's now ready for prime time?
Machado has played 29 NBA minutes. No sign of a trajectory yet.
RJeff was still getting minutes for the Spurs 2 years ago, but he was buried in GS. Just 39 minutes in their 12 playoff games. He's just 33, but serious decline in production for several years now.

When I add 2 mpg to everyone shown on the Jazz roster (top of this page), they project to ~17 wins. However, this minute-inflation is inconsistent and I'd say optimistic.

[Mike G]

Pelton has [Denver] winning 44 games instead of 52

Does he say why they should be 13 games worse this year?
Andre Miller is 37 y.o., and the rest are under 30. With the minutes I've projected, the team 'age' is 26.3 -- about half a year younger than last season's NBA avg. So youth seems to be on their side.

Did they dump Karl because of his legendary playoff failures? Brian Shaw seems like a pretty smart guy. Do people assume he's a lousy coach?

[mark kieffer]

Lucas is going to start at the point, Machado is going to play significant minutes too probably, especially if Burke is out for a while
Jefferson has been playing more like 20 mins/game in the preseason, so you have to figure he will have significant minutes as long as he stays healthy.

Lucas, through age 30, has started 2 NBA games. He's played in 174 games over 8 years, at 11.8 mpg. Do you have some information that he's now ready for prime time?
Machado has played 29 NBA minutes. No sign of a trajectory yet.
RJeff was still getting minutes for the Spurs 2 years ago, but he was buried in GS. Just 39 minutes in their 12 playoff games. He's just 33, but serious decline in production for several years now.

When I add 2 mpg to everyone shown on the Jazz roster (top of this page), they project to ~17 wins. However, this minute-inflation is inconsistent and I'd say optimistic.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/depth/_/name/utah/utah-jazz

Some of those guys are going to get minutes

[mark kieffer]

Pelton has [Denver] winning 44 games instead of 52

Does he say why they should be 13 games worse this year?
Andre Miller is 37 y.o., and the rest are under 30. With the minutes I've projected, the team 'age' is 26.3 -- about half a year younger than last season's NBA avg. So youth seems to be on their side.

Did they dump Karl because of his legendary playoff failures? Brian Shaw seems like a pretty smart guy. Do people assume he's a lousy coach?

I think it's pretty obvious even without reading the article: Losing Iguodala is a huge downgrade man, especially defensively..... Gallo is out until mid-season..... McGee is going to probably play almost 30 minutes/game instead of the 18-20 he normally plays. Even though McGee blocks lots of shots, he's horrible defensively.

[xkonk]

Pelton has [Denver] winning 44 games instead of 52

Does he say why they should be 13 games worse this year?

Looks like it's mostly defensive issues. Not only did they lose Iguodala, but they replaced him with a minus defender in Foye (by Pelton/SCHOENE's estimation). He notes that Chandler is the only plus defender in the roster's top nine. So I think the projection is for every game to be a shoot-out, with the offense being good enough to come out ahead sometimes but not often enough to be a real playoff threat.

[Jacob Frankel]

Here's my initial run at things. First model is offensive/defensive rating based, second is PER. Both are pretty "dumb" models (though the player projections are similarity score based). I'll have my more sophisticated model's projections pretty soon.



It's obvious these weren't mean regressed at all. Miami at 69 wins and Boston at 6...

[416x]

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╔═════════════════════════════════╦═══════════════════╗
║ TEAM                            ║ WINS  LOSS   ADJ% ║
╠═════════════════════════════════╬═══════════════════╣
║ Miami           56   26   0.685 ║                   ║
║ San Antonio                     ║ 56   26   0.680   ║
║ Houston                         ║ 54   28   0.664   ║
║ LA Clippers                     ║ 53   29   0.641   ║
║ Oklahoma City   52   30   0.634 ║                   ║
║ Minnesota                       ║ 50   32   0.612   ║
║ Detroit                         ║ 50   32   0.607   ║
║ New Orleans                     ║ 49   33   0.602   ║
║ Dallas                          ║ 48   34   0.588   ║
║ Brooklyn                        ║ 48   34   0.581   ║
║ Portland                        ║ 46   36   0.558   ║
║ Atlanta                         ║ 45   37   0.547   ║
║ Indiana                         ║ 44   38   0.538   ║
║ Denver                          ║ 44   38   0.532   ║
║ New York                        ║ 43   39   0.529   ║
║ Chicago                         ║ 43   39   0.526   ║
║ Cleveland                       ║ 43   39   0.519   ║
║ Toronto                         ║ 41   41   0.496   ║
║ Utah            40   42   0.487 ║                   ║
║ Memphis                         ║ 38   44   0.466   ║
║ Golden State                    ║ 37   45   0.454   ║
║ LA Lakers                       ║ 33   49   0.399   ║
║ Milwaukee                       ║ 33   49   0.397   ║
║ Washington                      ║ 32   50   0.389   ║
║ Orlando                         ║ 29   53   0.359   ║
║ Sacramento                      ║ 29   53   0.354   ║
║ Charlotte       27   55   0.335 ║                   ║
║ Phoenix         25   57   0.306 ║                   ║
║ Boston                          ║ 24   58   0.289   ║
║ Philadelphia                    ║ 15   67   0.177   ║
╚═════════════════════════════════╩═══════════════════╝

This is my first try at this let me know what you guys think

EDIT: sorry for format cant figure out how to align this stuff

[DSMok1]

This site is useful for formatting tables in plain text: http://www.sensefulsolutions.com/2010/1 ... table.html Use style unicode art.