Predictions 2013-14

[416x]

This site is useful for formatting tables in plain text: http://www.sensefulsolutions.com/2010/1 ... table.html Use style unicode art.

THANKS!

[Mike G]

Having guessed the Nets would lead the league with 63 wins, I expected a rejoinder of some sort. Nobody else thus far has predicted such success. I'll just illustrate how I did these.

The players on the roster totaled 287 minutes per game last year. That's just their season minutes divided by 82. The table shows last year's team, mpg, and eWins per 484 minutes (avg = 1.00), my pet stat. Followed by mpg I've allotted this season and the resultant eWins.

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tm'13   Nets          pos '13mpg   e484  mpg  eWins  
Brk   Deron Williams   PG   34.7   1.62   32   8.8
Brk   Joe Johnson      SG   32.2    .90   28   4.3
Bos   Paul Pierce      SF   31.4   1.63   26   7.2
Brk   Brook Lopez       C   27.5   1.83   26   8.1
Bos   Kevin Garnett    PF   24.7   1.62   26   7.1

Min   Andrei Kirilenko SF   24.8   1.17   24   4.8
Bos   Jason Terry      PG   25.9    .63   20   2.1
Brk   Reggie Evans     PF   24.0   1.30   16   3.5
Brk   Andray Blatche    C   19.0   1.59   14   3.8
Tor   Alan Anderson    SF   18.2    .70   12   1.4

Cle   Shaun Livingston PG   13.8    .73   10   1.2
Brk   Mirza Teletovic  PF    6.1    .68    2    .2
Mem   Chris Johnson    SF    1.2    .29    2    .1
Brk   Tyshawn Taylor   PG    2.7    .12    2    .0
Brk   Tornik Shengelia SF    1.1    .27    2    .1

.Nets     total             287          242  52.7

A team total of 52.7 eWins (equivalent wins) leads to an expected wins total of: xW = 2*eW-41 = 64.4
Doing each team this way, teams average 42.1 xWins. So every team's xW is multiplied by (41/42.1) .974 -- Nets adjusted xW then = 62.7

Older players might be expected to decline; but with reduced minutes, they might be as productive per minute. And this team isn't especially old on avg, so an overall decline might not be expected anyway.

Joe Johnson takes a hit on minutes, from 32 down to 28. He's also a slightly below avg player; but the only player listed as SG.
In fact, I don't have enough minutes at guard here. Unless Pierce plays some.

[Mike G]

I've got the Wolves at 47 wins -- apparently high, relative to Vegas. Others have them at 49 to 57.

[Dr Positivity]

Almost all the stat-based predictions I've seen have MEM dropping, can anyone explain why that is happening? Is it all Zbo's age? Because on paper getting rid of half of season of Gay, Arthur, Speights (all anti advanced stats players) and adding 2x the Ed Davis, Kosta Koufos (who I have as a 7 W center and borderline star last year, potentially HUGE addition), Mike Miller makes them look like a home run to me. To me the reasons to doubt MEM wouldn't be captured in stats, such as arguing the increased possession may hurt Gasol and Conley's eff. or that Koufos was a product of his system. If Koufos, Davis, Miller, Pondexter all have 115 ORTG+ seasons and Gasol/Conley/the defense are as good, I'd actually predict mid 60s for them

[Kevin Pelton]

To me the reasons to doubt MEM wouldn't be captured in stats, such as arguing the increased possession may hurt Gasol and Conley's eff.

Just the opposite in my case; that adjustment is built into SCHOENE, but those guys managed not to lose any efficiency after the trade last year. So that's one reason they regress a bit. Aging for Randolph and Prince is also a big factor, and the last one is the tendency for elite defenses to regress to the mean more than elite offenses.

[Mike G]

Last year they won 54, same as their pt-diff would expect; so it's not that.
Their top 7 guys missed a total of 16 games last year, which seems unlikely to repeat. That's the biggest reason I drop them to 52 this year.

Do betting types generally figure a coaching change = fewer wins? The Grizz had a pretty good coach, I thought. Never heard of this new guy, Joerger.

[nbacouchside]

Last year they won 54, same as their pt-diff would expect; so it's not that.
Their top 7 guys missed a total of 16 games last year, which seems unlikely to repeat. That's the biggest reason I drop them to 52 this year.

Do betting types generally figure a coaching change = fewer wins? The Grizz had a pretty good coach, I thought. Never heard of this new guy, Joerger.

Joerger has been pretty great at the levels of coaching he's been in so far. He's arguably one of the most successful minor league professional head coaches ever. "So did Joerger, who won five championships in seven seasons as a head coach in the IBA, CBA and D-League -- all before turning 35 years old." http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... head-coach

Although from a team regular season wins perspective he might cost the Grizz a few wins here and there by not playing starters to the same level that Hollins did. http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... llins-did/

[nbacouchside]

FWIW- here are my predictions:

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╔═══════════════════════╦══════╗
║         Team          ║ Wins ║
╠═══════════════════════╬══════╣
║ Miami Heat            ║   58 ║
║ Houston Rockets       ║   56 ║
║ San Antonio Spurs     ║   56 ║
║ Chicago Bulls         ║   54 ║
║ Indiana Pacers        ║   54 ║
║ L.A. Clippers         ║   54 ║
║ Brooklyn Nets         ║   53 ║
║ Oklahoma City Thunder ║   53 ║
║ Memphis Grizzlies     ║   52 ║
║ Golden State Warriors ║   47 ║
║ Denver Nuggets        ║   46 ║
║ Atlanta Hawks         ║   44 ║
║ New York Knicks       ║   44 ║
║ Dallas Mavs           ║   42 ║
║ Cleveland Cavs        ║   40 ║
║ Toronto Raptors       ║   40 ║
║ Portland Blazers      ║   38 ║
║ Minnesota T-Wolves    ║   36 ║
║ Detroit Pistons       ║   35 ║
║ New Orleans Pelicans  ║   35 ║
║ Utah Jazz             ║   35 ║
║ Milwaukee Bucks       ║   34 ║
║ Washington Wizards    ║   33 ║
║ Charlotte Bobcats     ║   31 ║
║ Phoenix Suns          ║   29 ║
║ Sacramento Kings      ║   29 ║
║ Boston Celtics        ║   28 ║
║ L.A. Lakers           ║   28 ║
║ Orlando Magic         ║   26 ║
║ Philadelphia Sixers   ║   20 ║
╚═══════════════════════╩══════╝

[Toast]

Couchside -

There's a pretty significant difference between this version of your predictions and one posted on your site earlier this year. Specifically:

Detroit
Indiana
T-Wolves

Any reason why?

[nbacouchside]

I did a run through with a different stat that I liked the looks of just a little better than the numbers I was using from bbstats (basically a blend of xRAPM, RAPM, IPV, ASPM, ezPM, James Brocato's Expected Impact), added an aging curve, and then ran it through my schedule spreadsheet and incorporated Evan Zamir's work ridge regressing the home court advantage of all the teams. I also fudged a little on the Sixers by making everyone about 15% worse than the raw numbers would indicate because they don't appear interested in trying to win and I think the fits of a lot of the players within their roles is very bad- so they are basically overmatched relative to their ideal roles and thus I think their per minute impact will suffer and 15% seemed as good a deflator as any for that sort of thing.

[nbacouchside]

As to why those teams in particular moved around a bunch. The blend liked the Pacers better than the bbstats prediction for xRAPM AND the Pacers homecourt advantage is very strong. The Pistons and Wolves suffered from bad HCA, according to Evan's numbers. I may need to mean-regress the HCA rankings, though, so that they aren't skewing things quite so hard.

[Mike G]

If you guys keep copying the entire post you're replying to, you realize it approaches infinite size?

[nbacouchside]

That's a good point. I'll stop doing that.

[Mike G]

I fixed 'em. Honestly, it's not just the tedious extra scrolling thru the thread, there's the multiple appearances of identical tables that I'm trying to keep track of.
New comments get buried in repeats of old ones.

Anyone who updates their predictions: make sure those are clearly identified and submitted before the season starts. That would seem to be Oct. 30 (next Wed.)

Also, you might wish to clarify what system(s) you've used, if any. We have a good history here of testing systems this way. It's mostly luck, though (since I never win it.)

[v-zero]

Hopeful of getting mine up on the eve of the season start. It would be quite easy to run some sims to ascertain some idea of luck vs skill, if you're interested.