Predictions 2013-14

[Jacob Frankel]

My projections are here: http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=9222. I might make a few last minute injuries/minutes adjustments and I'll post if that happens, but this is what I've got for now. Mike (or whoever is putting together the contest), just shoot me an email if you want them in a more easily copy and pasteble format.

[Bobbofitos]

My projections are up, too, on www.pointsperpossession.com

[Mike G]

I will try to handle all the entries. When I post updates, your predictions will be identified by a 2-to-4 character abbreviation. If you have a preference, let me know. Though I can change it at any time, consistency is nice for those who track such things.

[J.E.]

My projections are up, too, on http://www.pointsperpossession.com

From reading the comments on your site it seems you completely forgot about Iguodala going from DEN to GSW

[Bobbofitos]

My projections are up, too, on http://www.pointsperpossession.com

From reading the comments on your site it seems you completely forgot about Iguodala going from DEN to GSW

Yeah other people have commented on this too. It was a mistake on my end. (In the writeup) Thank you though

[deepak]

Not sure how sound this method is, but I thought I'd just add this to the mix for fun:

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  Conf  TEAM Top12-WS   Conf   TEAM  Top12-WS
1   E    MIA    56.9       W     LAC    53.8
2   E    BRK    54.5       W     GSW    52.8
3   E    CHI    52.4       W     HOU    52.4
4   E    IND    51.7       W     SAS    51.7
5   E    NYK    47.6       W     MEM    50.4
6   E    CLE    46.8       W     OKC    48.2
7   E    DET    39.5       W     MIN    47.3
8   E    BOS    39.1       W     DEN    47.3
9   E    WAS    38.2       W     POR    43.8
10  E    MIL    38.0       W     NOP    40.9
11  E    ATL    37.8       W     SAC    37.9
12  E    TOR    36.0       W     DAL    36.7
13  E    ORL    31.3       W     LAL    32.4
14  E    CHA    30.1       W     UTA    26.3
15  E    PHI    18.6       W     PHX    23.7

I used #NBARank to project win shares for all players, and then totaled the top 12 players for each roster to come up with these projections. They seemed reasonable for the most part, though some are surprising.

I posted a little more about it here.

[HoopDon]

Here's HoopDon's official 2013-2014 Prediction (hoopdon.weebly.com)

TEAM WINS
MIA 60
LAC 58
CHI 56
HOU 56
SAS 54
OKC 53
BRK 51
MEM 50
IND 49
GSW 47
NYK 45
DEN 44
ATL 43
DAL 43
WAS 41
MIN 41
CLE 40
TOR 39
POR 38
DET 36
NOP 35
MIL 34
UTH 31
BOS 30
LAL 30
PHO 29
CHA 28
SAC 27
PHI 22
ORL 20

Wins were assigned via a PER, Win Shares, Wins Produced, ASPM, and XRAPM blend. Rookies were given the league average rating (standardized to 0), unless they were projected to play "major" minutes, in which case a modest effort was made to gauge their ability.

[J.E.]

Rookies were given the league average rating (standardized to 0)

you're probably being a bit too nice to the rookies here

[jbrocato23]

Here are mine. I didn't do anything special, but I had a bunch of data on hand so I thought I'd throw it together to make some predictions:

Code: Select all

Co	Tm	Ws		Co	Tm	Ws
E	MIA	60		W	SAS	57
E	IND	54		W	OKC	56
E	CHI	54		W	LAC	55
E	BRK	54		W	HOU	54
E	NYK	45		W	MEM	50
E	ATL	45		W	GSW	47
E	DET	39		W	DEN	41
E	TOR	39		W	DAL	41
E	WAS	38		W	MIN	41
E	CLE	36		W	NOP	40
E	MIL	32		W	POR	37
E	BOS	30		W	SAC	31
E	ORL	27		W	LAL	31
E	CHA	24		W	UTA	29
E	PHI	22		W	PHO	22

[Mike G]

I have tabulated predictions from 416x, ncs, jBro, hDon, jank, Bobb, and deep.
If you don't recognize or like your abbreviation, please speak up. If you linked or otherwise referred to your predictions, please re-reference them soon.

Deepak, your numbers add up to 1264, or 42.1 wins per team. I can apply a multiplier of .973 to get them to 1230, or you can adjust, or you can leave them as they are.
It also seems that jBro has one win too many, and 416x is 3 wins short of a season.

The Vegas numbers still don't show Boston or the Lakers, but they have their championship odds. Lakes' odds are better than Den (45.5) and less than Mem (51), implying about 48.
Celts' odds are just below Pistons (40), implying about 39.5 wins.
Inserting these numbers, the league totals 1258 wins, about 1 per team too many. This seems familiar.
Or maybe both teams will just slip into the playoffs and have inordinately good odds from there, surviving by tradition.

I'm now going to finalize my updates.

[Mike G]

OK, here are 8 predictors from least to most 'volatile' (left to right), that is avg difference from the average of the 8.

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avg      tm      jBro   ncs    hDon   Bobb   jank    eW   deep2   416x
58.3     Mia      60     58     60     60     61     56     55     56
55.5     LAC      55     54     58     58     56     58     52     53
55.3     SAS      57     56     54     59     55     55     50     56
54.8     Okl      56     53     53     57     64     56     47     52
53.5     Brk      54     53     51     52     57     60     53     48

53.4     Hou      54     56     56     51     56     49     51     54
52.3     Chi      54     54     56     51     56     53     51     43
51.1     Ind      54     54     49     50     55     52     50     44
50.2     Mem      50     52     50     56     56     51     49     38
45.8     NYK      45     44     45     46     47     50     46     43

45.5     GSW      47     47     47     46     47     42     51     37
45.2     Den      41     46     44     46     44     51     46     44
43.5     Atl      45     44     43     45     46     43     37     45
43.4     Dal      41     42     43     47     43     48     36     48
42.7     Min      41     36     41     41     42     44     46     50

avg      tm      jBro   ncs    hDon   Bobb   jank    eW   deep2   416x
40.0     Cle      36     40     40     30     42     43     46     43
39.8     Det      39     35     36     39     36     45     38     50
39.1     Por      37     38     38     37     40     34     43     46
38.8     NOP      40     35     35     35     40     37     40     49
38.5     Tor      39     40     39     41     37     36     35     41

36.1     Was      38     33     41     41     35     31     37     32
32.5     Mil      32     34     34     30     27     33     37     33
31.1     LAL      31     28     30     31     33     31     32     33
30.3     Sac      31     29     27     31     25     33     37     29
28.9     Uta      29     35     31     26     27     18     26     40

28.2     Cha      24     31     28     31     25     31     29     27
28.2     Bos      30     28     30     27     25     24     38     24
25.8     Orl      27     26     20     26     23     25     30     29
22.9     Phx      22     29     29     21     15     19     23     25
19.1     Phl      22     20     22     19     15     22     18     15

average diff.    1.5    2.1    2.1    2.2    2.9    3.1    3.3    4.5     
 

I've tentatively factored deepak's predictions to sum to 1230 wins.
Decimals are retained in the spreadsheet but rounded off here.
Most volatile (unpredictable?) teams: Utah 4.8 (18 to 40 wins predicted), Det 3.9 (35 to 50), Phx 3.7 (15 to 29), Okl 3.6 (47 to 64), Mem 3.5 (38 to 56), Cle 3.5 (30 to 46)
Least volatile are the Lakers (28 to 33), avg 1.08 variance.

[v-zero]

To update: I have been trapped away from my data for the last few days due to weather, so I'm going to put up numbers tonight, but they won't be my final numbers. I'll post the later ones too, but it's up to you whether you accept them in this (probably Wednesday or Thursday).

[jbrocato23]

It also seems that jBro has one win too many

This is obviously a rounding issue. You can take a win off Orlando on mine to make it an even 1230.

[deepak]

Mike, that's fine multiplying my wins by a constant factor to get it to sum up properly. Strictly speaking, the numbers I gave weren't team win projections but rather projections for the sum total of the top 12 players' Win Shares.

I really don't expect Boston or Philadelphia to win that many games (but I also don't expect OKC to win less than 50). We'll see on average how well it does.

[fpliii]

My first time posting predictions here:

Code: Select all

  East	
Team  Ws
BRK	64
CHI	63
MIA	63
IND	56
DET	52
NYK	52
WAS	46
CLE	40
TOR	32
CHA	29
BOS	21
ATL	20
ORL	20
PHI	17
MIL	17

Code: Select all

  West	
Team  Ws
LAC	64
HOU	56
SAS	56
GSW	52
OKC	48
MEM	48
NOP	43
MIN	42
DEN	41
UTA	37
LAL	36
DAL	36
POR	32
SAC	30
PHO	17