2013 NBA draft prospect rankings

[Mathketball]

With the draft a few days away I thought it'd be a good time to post my 2013 rankings. I have a base formula for evaluating collegiate players numbers that is tweaked based on position. I've made a few adjustments since last year and have been pretty happy with the results. Previously I was undervaluing mid major stars like Damian Lillard so that was one thing I addressed. Also, I revamped how I handle post players that can shoot 3's.

Also, it used to be that a score of 1.6 or above was elite. To make it easier to read I adjust my results so 1.6 is now 100. So basically anyone scoring over 100 projects to be a very good player. I account for height but currently I don't account for athleticism so guys that were really good college players that lack the athletic ability to compete in the NBA will be overvalued (John Surna and Robbie Hummel are examples of this from last year).

Also, on my spreadsheets you'll see a column for "Success to Failure" ratio. This is a stat I developed for evaluating how efficiently a player ends possessions. It's the ratio of possessions ended successfully to possessions ended with a failure. It's basically Ast to TO ratio extended to the full offensive game.

Here's my 2013 results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... GR3c#gid=0

My top 5 picks would be.
1. Porter 186 rating, ranked 3rd nationally
1a. Noel 160, 26th
3. Burke. 189, 2nd
4. Michael Carter-Williams 165, 20th
5. Victor Oladipo 174, 9th

Guys I would avoid early.
Steven Adams 139, 144th
Shabazz Muhammad 125, 355th
Alex Len 144, 105th
Anthony Bennett 159, 28th

Sleepers
Reggie Bullock 153, 46th
Ryan Kelly 153, 48th
Lorenzo Brown 136, 178th
Nate Wolthers 165, 19th
Ray McCallum 147, 81st
Andre Roberson 155, 37th
Carrick Felix 132, 243rd
Chris Evans. 164, 21st

I put my nation rating (100 around D1 average) and ranking (out of 2993 players) in "Impact" (ignoring games missed due to injury and or suspension) next to all your projections above - just for fun. My impact ranking is PURELY a performance ranking in college - it's not supposed to be a predictor of NBA success. But, historically, guys that rank higher in my ratings are definitely more likely on average to be successful at the next level. This last year's ranking (in HnR - which missing games hurts a player's ranking - "Impact = HnI" is the ranking on the far right for all players) of all D1 players:

http://www.hoopsnerd.com/uploads/4-8-13 ... atings.pdf

Now, I'm curious what you think of my highest HnI guys that had GREAT seasons last year:

#1 Mike Muscala 194 rating 96 #19
#4 Kelly Olynyk 182 84 #38
#5 Erick Green 179 86 #34
#7 CJ McCollum 175 Sr Yr 83 #44 | Jr Yr 98 #18
#8 K. Caldwell-Pope 175 103 #13
#10 Cody Zeller 173 96 #20
#11 Mason Plumlee 171 84 #40
#12 Taylor Smith 171 76 #68
#14 Gorgui Deng 168 104 #12
#15 Pierre Jackson 168 94 #21
#16 Jeff Withey 168 90 #25

To comment on your post - I wouldn't drop Burke because there are other PGs - PGs who are ELITE in college in BOTH scoring and assist rate against good/great comp usually become good/great NBA players. However, wings are more a dime a dozen imo - although Porter is a STUD.

I can't really complain about your top 5 - looks as good as anybody's to me.

I agree wholeheartedly with your avoidees EXCEPT for Bennett - he was a true frosh. True frosh that are THAT dominant (they MOVED ASIDE - changed positions and gave more pine to their star from the previous year Mike Moser - BECAUSE Bennett was such an immense talent) HAVE to be taken seriously.

The idea of Len possibly going #1 makes me laugh - there are plenty of bigs in this draft that will have that will have better NBA careers if given the opportunity imo.

I'm cool with your sleepers except Brown & Felix - look at the 11 names I listed for alts (Green/McCollum/Jackson for Brown, Caldwell-Pope for Felix).

Great job though - I don't think people really how tricky it is to really separate players with similar looking college stats.

My NBA projections for college players is really down the road at least a month btw - still compiling the 15 years of college data. Didn't come close to my dream deadline of a few days before the NBA draft. Oh well.

Statman, interesting stuff thanks for the input. I posted my results next to the players you mentioned above. One thing to note, I have some duplicates on my big board for tweeners like I put in Bennett's SF and PF results. So you'll notice the rank I doesn't match the row number because of this.

My formula really liked a lot of the guys you mentioned. Muscala is an interesting one to me. He scored really well despite having a total of 23.125 in deductions. I think that speaks to how well he played this year and I expect he'll have a nice career in the NBA.

Plumlee, Olynyk, and Green were lower on mine but all still project has high second rounders.

Smith had 23.125 worth of deductions too so that's a big part of why he's so much lower on mine. Also, his FT% and the fact that he's 6'6" and profiles as a PF hurt him.

Other than that I think we're pretty close on most of those guys.

In regards to Burke, I agree with your comments and I fully believe he could be the best player in the draft. My point was simply that he's close enough to Noel and Porter that I wouldn't take him over them. In my past results I've had more PGs score really high that Wings or Posts so that's why I would value Noel and Porter over him. I strongly believe Burke will have a great career though.

As for Bennett, I think I was a little unclear on why I put him in that category though. Basically, I would be afraid to take him in the top 5. If I'm sitting somewhere around 7-10 and he's on the board I take him for many of the reasons you listed. Of the 4 players I put in that category he's, by far the one I like the most. Long term I wouldn't be shocked if Bennett winds up being the most undervalued player on my scales from this class. His lack of a definitive position hurts him on my formulas. At the 4 he's a little short but shoots it well form deep but at the 3 his ball handling and lack of assists would be a concern. He had a total of 6.25 in deductions which dropped him from about 22nd to 35th.

For that category I would be interested in Bennett(#35) around 7-10, Len(#62) and Muhammad(#56) 20 to the end of the first, and Adams(#99) mid to late second.

Agree completely on Len being a stretch at 1. I've heard the Cavs are a team that values analytics so I'd kind of be surprised if those rumors are true.

Also, I find it very interesting to see you had Chris Evans ranked so high. He doesn't seem to be getting much traction among the "experts" (ESPN doesn't even have a draft profile for him). I really like his game though, he's a guy that played for 3 teams in 4 college seasons and made dramatic improvements from his Jr to Sr year when he finally had some stability. He has legitimate NBA size and length at the 2 or 3 and is a big time leaper. He'll probably start next year in the D-League but he's someone to keep an eye on for sure.

[Mathketball]

Looks pretty interesting, I'm surprised to see that Shabazz Muhammed was as low as he was, but definitely looks like there is a method behind that claim. I'm wondering if there is a usage rate measure or someway to measure players based on their varying differences in terms of their usage rate. Obviously all players in the draft had major impacts on their teams offenses, but not all players had the same opportunities.

I stated months ago in my blog - I have serious doubts Shabazz will be able to stick at all in the NBA.

Statman, I'm curious how early would you be willing to take a chance on him?

[Crow]

I've heard little talk about Erik Green (listed #5 above in last post) but based on a brief read of a few articles and the mention above he seems pretty good and perhaps undervalued in the mocks until fairly recently. He was listed as a mid 2nd round pick at Draftexpress but is now 31st.

[PD123]

I've heard little talk about Erik Green...

The curse of being an undersized 'tweener on a woefully bad team in a power conference who's a true senior to boot. I like him too, but I'm also inclined to be somewhat distrustful of a "shoot-first" point guard's prospects of transitioning to the NBA.

[Statman]

Looks pretty interesting, I'm surprised to see that Shabazz Muhammed was as low as he was, but definitely looks like there is a method behind that claim. I'm wondering if there is a usage rate measure or someway to measure players based on their varying differences in terms of their usage rate. Obviously all players in the draft had major impacts on their teams offenses, but not all players had the same opportunities.

I stated months ago in my blog - I have serious doubts Shabazz will be able to stick at all in the NBA.

Statman, I'm curious how early would you be willing to take a chance on him?

I personally wouldn't at all. Seriously. If I learned a team a couple picks after mine was certain to draft him - I may act like he's our pick and see if I can get team to trade up a couple spots to get him and get the guy I want a couple pick later + a 2nd round pick or two.

I've seen him play maybe 15 games (I watch every Arizona game and many other P12 games). Outside of a "scorers" mentality and decent mid range game (which would be harder for him to execute in the NBA), I don't see anything that he offers that would allow him to stick in the NBA. Appeared to be a little out of shape much of the year, mediocre defender, poor passer, below average handles at the wing, not particularly quick or fast - especially compared to NBA players. He's almost two years older than the normal frosh (his age was a lie for years in high school).

Of players I've seen in ton in the P12 - Crabbe of Cal would be a comp to Shabazz who I think is a better player now and has much better upside. That being said, I don't think Crabbe is lottery at all. Different position - but Roberson of Colorado may have a long NBA career as a defensive stopper wing who is an elite rebounder for his position & size. He's Leonard of San Antonio with lesser offensive skills.

[Statman]

I've heard little talk about Erik Green...

The curse of being an undersized 'tweener on a woefully bad team in a power conference who's a true senior to boot. I like him too, but I'm also inclined to be somewhat distrustful of a "shoot-first" point guard's prospects of transitioning to the NBA.

You do realize you are completely describing Damian Lillard, right (ok - not a bad team from a power conference, a mid major PG instead)? You are also practically describing CJ McCollum - who is shorter than Green coming off a broken foot - and I'm not sure you'll find a mock not having McCollum going lottery.

Being an elite player on a BAD team in a power conference is THAT much of a knock on a player? Honestly, how many players are good enough to score 25 ppg, going 50% for 2pt, 39% 3pt, 82% FT, and a 1.8 A/TO ratio against top D1 completion (better than the competition Lillard & McCollum faced on average) - with absolutely zero help offensively. That kind of efficiency (good %'s with low TO rate) being obviously THE GUY the other team had to try to stop every game is actually quite rare - especially against major conference competition.

Also btw, it's also actually quite rare for a true "pass first" college PG to make a an impact in the NBA. Most quality NBA PGs led their college team in scoring, and much of the rest were 2nd on their college team in scoring. A high shot frequency with solid assist/to numbers in college make it much more often to the NBA than a normal or low shot frequency with great A/TO numbers.

[Statman]

Also, I find it very interesting to see you had Chris Evans ranked so high. He doesn't seem to be getting much traction among the "experts" (ESPN doesn't even have a draft profile for him). I really like his game though, he's a guy that played for 3 teams in 4 college seasons and made dramatic improvements from his Jr to Sr year when he finally had some stability. He has legitimate NBA size and length at the 2 or 3 and is a big time leaper. He'll probably start next year in the D-League but he's someone to keep an eye on for sure.

Oops, just realized - I gave the ranking for Dwayne Evans of St. Louis. Dwayne isn't going pro yet - and is a crazy tweener (6'5" PF).

I had Chris Evans ranked 92nd nationally with a 146 rating.

[Mathketball]

Also, I find it very interesting to see you had Chris Evans ranked so high. He doesn't seem to be getting much traction among the "experts" (ESPN doesn't even have a draft profile for him). I really like his game though, he's a guy that played for 3 teams in 4 college seasons and made dramatic improvements from his Jr to Sr year when he finally had some stability. He has legitimate NBA size and length at the 2 or 3 and is a big time leaper. He'll probably start next year in the D-League but he's someone to keep an eye on for sure.

Oops, just realized - I gave the ranking for Dwayne Evans of St. Louis. Dwayne isn't going pro yet - and is a crazy tweener (6'5" PF).

I had Chris Evans ranked 92nd nationally with a 146 rating.

Ah, that makes more sense. I was surprised you had him so high although I do like him a lot. Not surprisingly he was not drafted. I expect we'll see him in the summer league.

Statman, I was wondering what your thoughts are on Bennett going #1. Obviously I feel it was a reach, as I said before he scares me in the top 5. The fit on the Cavs seems kind of strange as well. If they plan on playing him at the 3 he'll likely have a hard time defensively. If they play him at the 4 he's giving up a few inches to his man plus where does Tristan Thompson go? They have young defensively challenged guards in Irving and Waiters and now potentially Bennett at the 3 with no legitimate shot blocker to protect them when they get beat. Kind of surprised they didn't target a guy like Dieng at 19 to begin addressing shot blocking.

I suppose when you're picking #1 you get the player with the most talent regardless of fit. So if they believe that's Bennett then they have to take him. I for one an skeptical.

[Statman]

Also, I find it very interesting to see you had Chris Evans ranked so high. He doesn't seem to be getting much traction among the "experts" (ESPN doesn't even have a draft profile for him). I really like his game though, he's a guy that played for 3 teams in 4 college seasons and made dramatic improvements from his Jr to Sr year when he finally had some stability. He has legitimate NBA size and length at the 2 or 3 and is a big time leaper. He'll probably start next year in the D-League but he's someone to keep an eye on for sure.

Oops, just realized - I gave the ranking for Dwayne Evans of St. Louis. Dwayne isn't going pro yet - and is a crazy tweener (6'5" PF).

I had Chris Evans ranked 92nd nationally with a 146 rating.

Ah, that makes more sense. I was surprised you had him so high although I do like him a lot. Not surprisingly he was not drafted. I expect we'll see him in the summer league.

Statman, I was wondering what your thoughts are on Bennett going #1. Obviously I feel it was a reach, as I said before he scares me in the top 5. The fit on the Cavs seems kind of strange as well. If they plan on playing him at the 3 he'll likely have a hard time defensively. If they play him at the 4 he's giving up a few inches to his man plus where does Tristan Thompson go? They have young defensively challenged guards in Irving and Waiters and now potentially Bennett at the 3 with no legitimate shot blocker to protect them when they get beat. Kind of surprised they didn't target a guy like Dieng at 19 to begin addressing shot blocking.

I suppose when you're picking #1 you get the player with the most talent regardless of fit. So if they believe that's Bennett then they have to take him. I for one an skeptical.

Well, I thought it was a much better pick than Alex Len. He'll probably be much less prone to miss large chunks of games in his career due to injury than Noel - so that's something. It seems like they could have made it known they were gonna pick Oladipo or maybe Porter - and then trade down a spot or two and get Bennett. I, personally, liked Burke, Porter, Oladipo, Caldwell-Pope, and Zeller a little more.

But, I highly doubt he will be able to play the wing on defense (too slow) or offense (too slow and mediocre handles for the threat of dribble drive). He'll be an undersized PF who won't play very good defense. However, I think he'll rebound well enough and maybe develop into a pretty legit scorer (facing up bigs, posting up thin/shorter guys).

The last two top young tweeners drafted super high have underachieved (Derrick Williams and Beasley). Williams and Beasley were quite a bit more dominant in college (ESPECIALLY Beasley), and they were a little taller.

I could see Bennett putting up nice glamour stats on a bad team - but I, right now, can't imagine a player like him eventually being the go to guy on a good/great team. Paul Millsap? So, yes, I'm skeptical too.

[ttsoft]

Your system seems really interesting, especially after looking at Michael Carter Williams... no one projected him to be a sure fire star, but sure looks like it early on.

Impressive your system saw that despite some of his stats not looking all that impressive at first glance.

[jbrocato23]

Michael Carter Williams... no one projected him to be a sure fire star

I kinda did. At least, I had him as a top 5 pg prospect since '02.

[Statman]

Your system seems really interesting, especially after looking at Michael Carter Williams... no one projected him to be a sure fire star, but sure looks like it early on.

Impressive your system saw that despite some of his stats not looking all that impressive at first glance.

Thanks.

Another Syracuse guy - Dion Waiters was rated highly depite mediocrish first glance stats (pretty much 12/2/2 and 56% TS% at Syracuse) in '11-12. He was ranked 33rd nationally, 6th among sophs. Putting up top 50 ratings nationally as an underclassman is a huge indicator of possible NBA talent.

Anyway - you might have already seen it - I did draft draft write ups July 11th, you can scroll down to see them (I REALLY have to clean up the site and create dedicated pages). MCW's synopsis based on his ratings breakdown:

"Michael Carter-Williams has the athleticism and court awareness to eventually be a very good NBA player. He reminds me of a poor man's Jason Kidd out of college (the athletic Jason Kidd who could do EVERYTHING except shoot). He could someday put up Rondo type statlines. I just doubt he'll ever be a good enough scorer to keep defenses honest."

His passing/handles rating was 2nd best of the draft (to Burke). He was the best rated rebounder and best rated defender (in terms of defensive stops) among the guards (PGs or combos), strong indicator of athleticism and ability to best utilize his length. He was only a sophomore. I didn't mention Conley at the time - but he has Conley's statistical skillset written all over him coming out of college.

[Statman]

Michael Carter Williams... no one projected him to be a sure fire star

I kinda did. At least, I had him as a top 5 pg prospect since '02.

You had him in front of Burke - something I wouldn't have done (I love Burke). Time will tell.

BTW James - just followed you on Twitter. Our NBA player rankings seem to be pretty similar, despite different approaches. Good stuff.

[jbrocato23]

BTW James - just followed you on Twitter. Our NBA player rankings seem to be pretty similar, despite different approaches. Good stuff.

Followed you back.

You had him in front of Burke - something I wouldn't have done (I love Burke). Time will tell.

Yeah, it's gonna be pretty interesting imo to see these guys' careers pan out. I wrote an article (pre-tourney) on Burke being underrated, and had him ahead of MCW most of the year, but the last update of my model really really liked MCW. I think the big question mark with Burke will be his size and therefore his defense (he's undersized but doesn't have the stl numbers of a Paul or Conley). I do think he has the chance to be a really good offensive player though and I would have taken him pretty high in the draft.

[Mathketball]

Michael Carter Williams... no one projected him to be a sure fire star

I kinda did. At least, I had him as a top 5 pg prospect since '02.

He was 4th overall in this draft on my scales (see original post). The 3 guys that scored ahead of him haven't played yet because of injuries.