Draft Rankings

[Barncore]

Hey James, are you going to continue these rankings for 2014? My fantasy keeper teams depend on it.

[nbacouchside]

Hey James, are you going to continue these rankings for 2014? My fantasy keeper teams depend on it.

James is consulting for the Mavericks on the draft, so he won't be doing his rankings for this year (so he said on Twitter anyway).

[Crow]

I've looked back at several draft prediction systems recently that rely heavily on the player "similarity" concept to forecast NBA performance and they still seem pretty clunky. It is pretty hard to predict and they may be better than lesser systems or traditional scouting alone but I think there is probably still room to continue to refine what is included in models, the factor weights and quality of opposition. Team quality is sometimes used but I am not aware of any system using quality of main direct counterpart player on the court and heavily weighting data based on closeness of the specific opponent to NBA quality.

I would be interested in seeing more stat-analysis based draft rankings for this class. My gut is saying that this class is probably over-hyped as usual, even though it may be better than average. Maybe not as much over-hyped as typically, but I wonder. How good are the top 5? How much quality depth is there?

[Statman]

I would be interested in seeing more stat-analysis based draft rankings for this class. My gut is saying that this class is probably over-hyped as usual, even though it may be better than average. Maybe not as much over-hyped as typically, but I wonder. How good are the top 5? How much quality depth is there?

Once I get my model done - I should be projecting entire NBA career curves from college data (for every player - not just those drafted). Probably won't happen until I "retire" from my real job (6/14?) or land a gig that allows me retire earlier & devote 4 or more hours a day to this specific work. Unless not allowed to - I will post all my projections from past drafts compared to actual results, as well as the most current future projections.

At the very least it should be interesting - I'm hoping (expecting? Is that too cocky?) it'll be extremely enlightening. I'd be able to, say, project the ranking of players 3 seasons from now based on all current NBA & D1 players (& maybe NBDL) - as well as their projection in statistical skillset breakdowns.

Honestly, if it weren't for very good insurance - I'd "retire" now and devote full time to get this done - it's been way too slow of a project for too long for me. I'm excited about the results.

[Crow]

I've watched most of Julius Randle's college games so far and especially lately I have being wondering about how he will perform as a pro. A lot of the plays he scores on in college IMO will not occur in the pros or he will fairly likely get stuffed. He may be explosive moving but I am concerned he isn't getting up enough for clean looks against NBA quality 6-10+ guys especially on post-ups.

I made a quick sweep on the NBA and found 10 guys who seemed like the best to compare him to:
Tristan Thompson, Blair, G Davis, Miles Plumlee, Patrick Patterson, Hansbrough, Randolph, Derrick Williams and Blatche.

For folks with draft pick projection systems or those with subjective opinions, how many of these will he prove to be better than in the NBA? How quick and by how much? I find myself thinking he might be more middle of the pack than next best or best. It is way early but wanted to hear more on this case. I am going to pay attention to what Randle does against equal or greater size, especially the few NBA quality players he will face.

[Ryan76ers]

Just subjective opinion here - but I tend to agree with you that I think Randle might be getting a little overhyped. Seems to score most of his points by simply overpowering his opponent. And at just 6'9" I don't know how well that will project to the next level.

[nbo2]

Also Randle is, in my limited view of him, not a good defender right now, but it would be much better to ask scouts about what they think about his defensive potential a few years down the line. Seems to me like he should ideally play with a true rim-protecting big man.

Based on some work I've been doing for a class project, younger draftees that get playing time seem to have a much higher per possession defensive impact over their careers compared to older draftees. The average discrepancy between younger/older draftees in per possession defensive impact over a player's career looks much bigger than the average discrepancy in per possession offensive impact (though it was by no means a study without numerous faults; many improvements/adjustments should be made). What my work doesn't show (at least not yet) is the variance, which would undoubtedly be much higher for offensive impact than defensive impact.

I'll post soon. In the meantime, has anyone ran into something like this? Do younger draftees perform, on average, much better defensively than older draftees vs. on average, simply better offensively than older draftees? Haven't suggested causality, because the effect could be a result of younger draftees that get playing time to be more athletic/higher picks/have more natural NBA bodies.

[Statman]

I've watched most of Julius Randle's college games so far and especially lately I have being wondering about how he will perform as a pro. A lot of the plays he scores on in college IMO will not occur in the pros or he will fairly likely get stuffed. He may be explosive moving but I am concerned he isn't getting up enough for clean looks against NBA quality 6-10+ guys especially on post-ups.

I made a quick sweep on the NBA and found 10 guys who seemed like the best to compare him to:
Tristan Thompson, Blair, G Davis, Miles Plumlee, Patrick Patterson, Hansbrough, Randolph, Derrick Williams and Blatche.

For folks with draft pick projection systems or those with subjective opinions, how many of these will he prove to be better than in the NBA? How quick and by how much? I find myself thinking he might be more middle of the pack than next best or best. It is way early but wanted to hear more on this case. I am going to pay attention to what Randle does against equal or greater size, especially the few NBA quality players he will face.

A quick, very simple, basic stat point - guys that average 3.5 tos, 0.1 steals, and 0.7 blocks in college do not become stars in the NBA. It's never happened.

Very small sample size, if he's nearly as talented as reported, those periphery stats will obviously improve.

His best comp to me just watching him is Zach Randolph. As of now - Zach had a significantly better steal & block rate and a lower turnover rate at MSU (obviously against better comp than KU so far) than Randle.

If his college career ended with the same exact stats as he has now - my projection model would not like him in terms of the NBA. He is a frosh though, that's obviously in his favor.

[Crow]

Thanks for the feedback.

Calipari has made a point of trying to not pigeonhole Randle as a college post trying to overpower all the time but that is what he is best at and what the team needs most. I am not sure quickly and how much he will improve at the face up game this season despite of the coach and player wanting to work on it. If they start losing with some regularity in conference play there will be greater pressure to just do what works and is needed now rather than experimenting with new strategies.

I imagine that there is very little or no chance he stays two years but if he wanted to develop into what he may have to be in the pros I'd at least consider it. And maybe losing 10-15 pounds to improve maneuverability, speed and hops. Not that he is bad at these but better would be helpful for more face-up style play.