Early 2013-14 stat-based observations

[Crow]

A couple of weeks ago I briefly put together this proposed player and a simple target lineup minutes distribution for the Nets:

johnson,joe SG 29
pierce,paul SF 25
livingston,shaun PG 19
blatche,andray PF 10
williams,deron PG 29
anderson,alan SG 5
plumlee,mason PF 13
garnett,kevin PF 25
kirilenko,andrei SF 23
terry,jason SG 14
evans,reggie PF 19
240




lineup sequence thru game:
williams,deron johnson,joe kirilenko,andrei plumlee,mason lopez,brook 6
livingston,shaun terry,jason pierce,paul evans,reggie garnett,kevin 8
williams,deron johnson,joe kirilenko,andrei blatche,andray lopez,brook 10
livingston,shaun anderson,alan pierce,paul evans,reggie garnett,kevin 5
williams,deron johnson,joe kirilenko,andrei plumlee,mason lopez,brook 7
livingston,shaun terry,jason pierce,paul evans,reggie garnett,kevin 6
williams,deron johnson,joe pierce,paul garnett,kevin lopez,brook 6
48


I closed with the conventional wisdom 5 best players lineup but limited its minutes to just 6. Actual usage of that lineup has been negative and not supportive of using it more or maybe at all. Kidd must be using lots of lineups. Only one used over 5 minutes per gameand only a couple others over 2 minutes per game. That is one kind of coaching... or chaos.

[Crow]

A minutes thinking about the Kings led to this minutes proposal :

cousins,demarcus C 34
thomas,isaiah PG 30
vasquez,greivis PG 26
thornton,marcus SG 12
mclemore,ben SG 24
patterson,patric PF 20
outlaw,travis SF 20
thompson,jason PF 24
salmons,john SF 10
williams, derrick SF 21
fredette,jimmer PG 15
hayes,chuck PF 4
ndiaye,hamady C 0
240

But really they probably should pick out the 5-6 players they think they might move forward with future seasons and give them even more minutes. If not right now, then by say Febraury to get the most testing done prior to off-season further adjustments. Adjusting who the most favored are and how much priority they get based on results. Unless they want to tank or highlight players for spin off trades.

[Crow]

As of 2 days ago: Only one lineup in the league out of the 27 used over 100 minutes is worse on raw +/- than the Thunder starting lineup. 6 of the top 8 contenders have a really strong big minute lineup. San Antonio also does not.

Only two player pairs in the league used 30+ minutes per game are worse than Westbrook-Durant on raw +/-. Looking at win% the Thunder were barely above .500 with both on the court this season, so far.

[Crow]

Looking at the average performance of best 13 big minute lineups (those better than +6 per 100 possessions and over 100 minutes), the average offensive rating was 107 and the defensive rating was 95. About 80% of the edge compared to league average for these top lineups is coming from the defensive performance. Will defensive performance rule in the playoffs? I dunno, but this tidbit is one thing to think about since starting lineups usually play a lot more in the playoffs and at crunch-time.

[Crow]

Offensive rebounding continues its downward slide to another record low compared to past seasons.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... stats.html

Would be interesting to do a full evaluation of this trend / strategy, looking at both sides of the court and playoff performance.

Own turnovers at a 12 year high. 3pt attempts up another shot per game.

Average pace higher now than any full season since 93-94.

Offensive rating currently just a tenth of point better off the worst full season in ten years. It may improve later in the season but is there a trend up or down? Or just stagnating near 105? Is the league satisified with that level of offensive / defensive balance?

[Mike G]

League OReb% seems to be inversely related to 3FGA/G -- as more teams stress the need to take more 3's, they put fewer O-Rebounders on the floor?

Over in another thread, monthly ORtg increases up to March/April, when it levels off.

Code: Select all

Month PPP
Oct 1.023
Nov 1.036
Dec 1.046
Jan 1.055
Feb 1.054
Mar 1.061
Apr 1.060
May 1.053

This is said to be based on the previous 15 seasons. Including, I guess, lockout years when Nov and/or Dec did not exist. So the change is even more dramatic in a normal year.
This season is about 1/4 finished; the rest of the season should be about 2% better; so expect league ORtg to rise by about 1.5 points by the end.
That puts it about median among the last 10 years, perhaps highest of the last 3.

[Crow]

Thanks for that additional analysis.

[nileriver]

I would have to contend about Portland's bench still being weak. I have not yet delved into the stats for them this year. However, I watch a lot of Blazer games. They may not be one of the best benches in the league, but they are a huge improvement over last year. Mo Williams brings some much needed offense (especially by being able to create his own shot), Freeland is becoming more comfortable with the NBA game, Wright can come in and shoot from long range, Robinson creates plays with his athleticism, and McCollum has not yet returned.

[Crow]

I grouped the top 4 teams on SRS

Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
San Antonio Spurs
Miami Heat


and then the next four

Los Angeles Clippers
Portland Trail Blazers
Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors



The top four average a 45% higher SRS because they average a 4.3 pt edge on defensive efficiency. The next 4 have almost a one point edge on offensive efficiency. The two groups vary on FTA and 3pt rates too, with the next 4 being on average 12% higher on FTrate and 18% higher on 3pt rate. As of today the two groups were exactly equal on raw total inside shot attempts. Top four have small average edges on eFG% and TO%. Next four with a 16% edge on OR% and play a bit over 1 possession faster per game.

These two groups are playing two different styles. Of course there is individual team variation but it may be worth noting the group differences as well. Which group will do better in the playoffs? The top group with the better defense and the offense less prioritized around the best shots =conventional excellence? or the upstart next 4 with the better shot distribution but lesser defense =the new approach?

Compared to their last regular season performance the next 4 teams are up on both FTA rate and 3 pt rate, especially FTA rate. The top 4 are down on both. Is one top really acti8vely emphasizing these priorities more or more effectively than the other? Will it turn out to whack one or more of the top 4 teams in a close game in some series? Or to they have an acceptable or even better overall strategy? The top 4 have an average age nearly 2 years higher. I wondered if the shot distributions and the age data are correlated but the values are very low.

What they did and will do in the playoffs may vary from the regular season data.

Last playoffs the final four had three of the current top 4 teams and Memphis. Memphis shared the general MO of those teams last season with an emphasis on good defense, a very low 3 pt rate and slightly below average FT rate. Within those four, Miami had the offense most optimized toward FT rate and 3pt rate.

If you set a standard of a top 10 defense, Houston and Portland fail to make that cut this season. If you eliminate a team for being significantly below average on FTrate or 3 pt rate, San Antonio would fall out over its FT rate and OKC might for its 3 pt rate. By this very simple sorting the most optimal overall set of this data may belong to the Clippers with the Heat second.

[Crow]

San Antonio averaged a FT/FGA of .199 in 2013 playoffs, 10% worse than playoff average and worst among final 4 teams. Produced a .217 in the finals against Miami but they were just a bit short. The title was there for the taking. Miami squeaked by.

Indiana had a more robust .284 FT/FGA against Miami. Shot the 3 well but at only 14 attempts a game.

Neither team delivered from both FT line and 3pt line. If a team beats the Heat this time, they probably will have to at least 2 of these 3 things well (FTrate, 3 pt rate, defense). Neither the Spurs or Pacers defense was sufficiently effective to slow the Heat. Hard to imagine a lesser defense team doing so this year. Maybe the best hope is on offense, a team that can produce a 110+ offensive efficiency against the Heat. That is what Dallas did in 2011 finals, with a .278 FT/FGA and over 20 3 pt attempts per game and over 41% of them falling in. They also (barely) kept the Miami offense below 108 efficiency, something neither the Thunder in 2012 or the Spurs in 2013 did.

The team who had the most games with both 20+ 3pt FGA, 25+ FTAs in the playoff won the last three titles (with granted the finalists having more game opportunities). But in the years immediately before then this was not the case at all. Maybe it is pretty important, maybe not as much. Will wait n watch if the recent pattern continues or not and if it is a top 4 team that does it right or one of the next 4. None of the other contenders in the top 4 group with Miami are without a serious shorting coming on the 3 factors I have been discussing. Miami has a good chance to skate by again unless somebody has a playoff performance equal to or better than the 2011 Mavericks against them. In similar style or different or not done, we will see.

[Crow]

In his first three seasons Rubio is already setting a modern day record (since 1970) for most seasons by a guy playing 27+ minutes with eFG% below 40% http://bkref.com/tiny/RUPAD.

His shooting is a throwback to the game in the fifties.

[Mike G]

There's only one player in the league with as many minutes as Rubio, who also shoots fewer FG/36 -- DeAndre Jordan.
Median for 66 players with >1000 minutes is 14.6 FGA/36. Rubio shoots 9.2/36

Rubio shoots 8.2 FGA per game at .387 eFG%
Shooting as badly and more often: Caron Butler '04, Oakley '01, Larry Hughes '01, Macon '92, Reynolds '92, Blaylock '90... A bunch of guys since the '50s.

Rubio's also an 85% FT shooter, bringing his TS% up to .470
He has more career FT than FG.
At least 40 guys in this century have shot more often and worse -- including Jordan in 2002.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Hug5J

[italia13calcio]

Using some of the same techniques I use on my site, I ran a quick test to see which players are above average in all the shot categories that SportVu tracks (drives, catch and shot (both twos and threes), pull ups (both twos and threes), and close shots). Only fiveteen players managed to rank positive in all categories. Those players are, in alphabetical order:

Arron Afflalo, Brian Roberts, Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki, Gerald Green, Goran Dragic, JJ Redick, Jordan Crawford, Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Manu Ginobili, Marcus Morris, Randy Foye, Ryan Anderson, Wesley Matthews.

[PD123]

Arron Afflalo, Brian Roberts, Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki, Gerald Green, Goran Dragic, JJ Redick, Jordan Crawford, Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Manu Ginobili, Marcus Morris, Randy Foye, Ryan Anderson, Wesley Matthews.

Am I correct in assuming you've got the forwards' names in bold simply to make it easier to distinguish between guard/forward? Or is there another reason?

[italia13calcio]

No, I just bolded the better known/regarded players.