Random Offensive Rating Question
Random Offensive Rating Question
I am a long-time observer of this board with a random question. Can anyone tell me the lowest number of points per 100 possessions that can reliably be expected to win a game?
Re: Random Offensive Rating Question
Hey. If you want to keep it simple you'd probably assume equal rest. To get a precise answer I'd think you'd have to address home court advantage in the efficiency ratings. Given the league average efficiency of 107.3 and average win margin I'd initially guess a 105-6 efficiency would win 50+% of games on a neutral court with home court teams needing less and visiting teams more. Maybe even lower efficiencies would win 50+%.
If by "reliably be expected to win" you mean 2-1 or anything more than 50% that would change things.
This question has been addressed with a formula on page 131 (paperback) of Basketball on Paper:
Win%= Norm function [ORtg-DRtg / sq rt of var ORtg + var DRtg - 2 covar (ORtg, D Rtg)]
If you use league average efficiencies for the opponent (save for HCA treatment) for those expected values and league average defensive efficiency for the home team I guess you could solve for the home team offensive efficiency needed for any particular win %.
Maybe somebody who has looked at the question more closely can provide additional comments or better advice, if not over the weekend, maybe early next week.
If by "reliably be expected to win" you mean 2-1 or anything more than 50% that would change things.
This question has been addressed with a formula on page 131 (paperback) of Basketball on Paper:
Win%= Norm function [ORtg-DRtg / sq rt of var ORtg + var DRtg - 2 covar (ORtg, D Rtg)]
If you use league average efficiencies for the opponent (save for HCA treatment) for those expected values and league average defensive efficiency for the home team I guess you could solve for the home team offensive efficiency needed for any particular win %.
Maybe somebody who has looked at the question more closely can provide additional comments or better advice, if not over the weekend, maybe early next week.
Re: Random Offensive Rating Question
Could you be more specific?
What do you mean by "reliably"?
I can win a game by scoring 1 point per 100 possessions as long as I hold my opponent to 0 points per 100 possessions.
Furthermore, even teams with awful average offensive ratings"will "reliably" win a certain proportion of their games.
What do you mean by "reliably"?
I can win a game by scoring 1 point per 100 possessions as long as I hold my opponent to 0 points per 100 possessions.
Furthermore, even teams with awful average offensive ratings"will "reliably" win a certain proportion of their games.
Re: Random Offensive Rating Question
Maybe the question is, what's the worst ORtg a team could have and still be expected to win a game out of 82 ?
Worst ORtg since 1990 was the '03 Nuggets at 92.2, who won 17 games.
Worst ORtg to win 30% of games, 96.7, was the Heat that same year.
The '04 Raptors won 40% with an ORtg of just 97.
Worst ORtg to win 50% or more was by the '99 Knicks -- 98.6 .
The '01 Suns and the '99 Magics hit 60% wins with ORtg of 100.3 .
Of the 100 worst ORtg since 1990, the median W% is .325 .
The '99 Spurs and the '04 Pacers both won 74% of games with ORtg of 104.
Worst ORtg since 1990 was the '03 Nuggets at 92.2, who won 17 games.
Worst ORtg to win 30% of games, 96.7, was the Heat that same year.
The '04 Raptors won 40% with an ORtg of just 97.
Worst ORtg to win 50% or more was by the '99 Knicks -- 98.6 .
The '01 Suns and the '99 Magics hit 60% wins with ORtg of 100.3 .
Of the 100 worst ORtg since 1990, the median W% is .325 .
The '99 Spurs and the '04 Pacers both won 74% of games with ORtg of 104.