Rough early estimate of chances to win this season's tiltle

[Mike G]

Once again, as a frame of reference and because they're just using season data, rather than assumptions about how good teams or players "really" are, b-r.com sez:

Code: Select all

SAS   24      Ind   35
LAC    7      Mia    7
Por    6      Chi    2
Hou    4      Atl    1
OKC    4
GSW    2
Den    2
Min    2

b-r.com likes the Pacers better than the Heat by 5:1
Crow likes Mia better by ~2:1
The difference is a factor of 9.

[Crow]

My thinking is admittedly influenced by what has happened the last couple of seasons.

I just can't really imagine the Spurs elders doing great in the entire playoffs or Popovich doing the right things the whole way after what has happened with both in recent years. Now maybe they win by a tiny margin or beat Indiana or win with great performances from beyond the old big 3 but I am not strongly expecting a revenge win on a healthy Heat team. To me the regular season is not simple and clear for evaluating playoff success overall and maybe especially for the Spurs.

[Mike G]

The Spurs did great in the entire playoffs last year, until the final minute of Gm 6.

I think it was 2003 or '04 when the Spurs and the Pacers were rolling, and on ESPN the talking heads were going on about what a "disaster for the NBA" it would be if those teams should make it to the Finals.

Is that still thought to be the case? Back then, I got the feeling they were saying, "Don't get your hopes up, Indy and San Antonio -- the league would never let this happen."

Wouldn't a "disaster" be more like a team plane crashing? Or a game fixing allegation?

[Crow]

I probably won't update this again for awhile but here is one more update / refinement of title chances:

Miami 25%
Indiana 20
San Antonio 17
Oklahoma City 12
Los Angeles Clippers 10
Houston 7
Portland 4
Other 5

[Yooper]

Crow,

I see you have the Clippers at 10% equity. I would be very curious as to your thought process. As I write this it appears they will be 15-9 after tonight. What are you seeing that will make them a better playoff team than last year? I'm having a hard time envisioning this team beating at least two of SA, OKC, Miami and Indiana. At this time, I'm not even sure they will have HC in the playoffs. How do they keep Deandre Jordan on the court when he shoots 39% from the line?

I just don't think this team is constructed properly to win in the playoffs. I see their chances as effectively zero. (I understand it's not really zero but it may as well be.) What am I missing?

[Mike G]

b-r.com now has this simulation-produced spread:

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WEST  SRS  %W     EAST  SRS  %W
SA    9.5  25     Ind   7.4  26
OKC   7.5  13     Mia   5.3  13
Por   6.6   9     Atl  -0.3   0.4
Hou   5.9   4
Min   4.6   1.5
LAC   4.2   3
GS    3.7   2
Den   2.8   1.5
Phx   2.4   0.7
Dal   1.6   0.2

The Clipps at 3% is non-zero but slim. To give them 10% assumes they're going to improve somehow, or that other teams will slip.
The Spurs might slip, or anyone might slip, as all but one team does every year.

Jared Dudley might recover his form from last year (15 pts/36 @ 58% shooting), rather than his current 53% for 11 pts/36. Blake Griffin hasn't hit his stride, Willie Green isn't really this bad, Matt Barnes should be better, Jamison's not really showed up yet ...

[Crow]

Yooper, you caught a weakness in my review. I hadn't really paid much attention to the Clippers the last 2 weeks. Given their slippage, I would downgrade them some, maybe to 8% or below. I don't think highly of them but I hadn't enough reason to break with my earlier mark. 2 weeks ago they had one of the very best records against good teams and I am one who gives more weight to those games when thinking about projecting playoff performance than the rest of the games and more than many others who don't think based on research that regular season performance against top teams is more important. On average for all teams performance against top teams may not be especially revealing but for the actual titlewinners I recollect that it is.

[Crow]

Obviously I am not totally locked in right now. One day later I would offer these marks, somewhat embarrassed by yesterday's "out of date" numbers. And I'll probably feel somewhat embarrassed by these in a few days.

Miami 25%
Indiana 18
San Antonio 14
Oklahoma City 14
Portland 8
Los Angeles Clippers 8
Houston 7
Other 6

[Mike G]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi
Ranked by regular season wins in 1000 simulations of remaining games (plus current wins) -- percent of times teams have won their Conference, and won the Finals; and the ratio of those, i.e. the chance they win the Finals once they've gotten there.

Code: Select all

West    CF%    F%     F/C        East    CF%    F%     F/C
Okl    32.3   20.9    .65        Ind    56.3   31.0    .55
Por    17.4    8.7    .50        Mia    30.1   14.3    .48
SAS    21.5   11.7    .54        Tor     6.5    1.7    .26
LAC    11.2    4.5    .40        Atl     3.6     .7    .19
GSW     8.2    3.5    .43        Was     1.6     .3    .19
Hou     3.2     .9    .28        Chi      .9     .0    .00
Phx     2.1     .3    .14                    
Dal     1.4     .5    .36                    
Min     2.6    1.0    .38                    

Bulls reached the Finals 9 times in 1000 tries, winning none.
The Wolves are 16-16 now, which is 9th in the West. They're expected to go 30-20 the rest of the way and still just miss the playoffs. But if they do make the playoffs, they're more dangerous than Dal or Phx.
The Wiz' chance of taking the title is just less than their chance of winning the lottery.

[Crow]

My updated subjective estimate:

Miami 26
Indiana 19
Oklahoma City 18
San Antonio 13
Los Angeles Clippers 10
Portland 8
Other 6

[Crow]

Just found this take:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/vs-1-5-by-other

Miami led this projection last season with the Spurs fourth.

This is not the total playoff projection. This is. http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking ... e-by-other

This highlighted part is most applicable to expected later rounds.

Other parts include
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/luck-by-other
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking ... y-by-other
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking ... s-by-other

[Crow]

Still bouncing around a bit:

Miami 30
Indiana 21
Oklahoma City 20
San Antonio 12
Los Angeles Clippers 6
Portland 4
Other 7

[Crow]

Of the 8 finalists over last 4 years, the average playoff efficiencies were 109.5 on offense and 104 on defense. Only one played at a pace above 90. All but one had FTrate above .300. Only one had a 3pt rate much above .250. May not have to play similarly but current contenders can be compared to these marks. of the six main contenders. 5 have regular season offensive efficiency comparable or better than this average (all except Indiana). Same on defense except for Portland.

Looking at http://www.nbastuffer.com/ you can see that OKC and San Antonio are about halfway between the extremes of Indiana and Portland on a grid of efficiency ratings. Miami halfway between the middle teams and Portland. Miami, SA and OKC are most similar to the recent finalist averages. LAC lags a bit off the frontier.

How much will the pace slow down in the playoffs this time? Pacers are currently playing the slowest but everyone is playing faster than recent playoffs experiences of titlewinners. A low pace environment might be key for Pacers beating the better offensive teams. Miami currently the next slowest paced.

[Crow]

Current estimated chance to win title:


Miami 25%
Indiana 23
Oklahoma City 22
San Antonio 10
Portland 6
Los Angeles Clippers 5
Houston 4
Golden State 2
Other 3

[Jacob Frankel]

I think OKC have the highest probability. I'd say they're a 85% bet to come out of the West while Miami and Indiana are both 50/50. And I think OKC can beat both of those teams in the Finals. Also, what's the rationale behind having the Blazers with better title chances than the Clippers?