Miscellaneous notes

[Crow]

Has anyone done a detailed study of team and player stats before and getting into the bonus? Boscore stats, 4 factors and overall efficiencies, foul rates by minute, etc.?



Has anyone looked at how useful first quarter team and player shot distributions and results are in determining what teams try for / get in the 2nd quarter and rest of game? Has anyone summarized team and player shot distribution for an average quarter of for each quarter. A team shot chart with about 20 composite average shots on it (based on 3-4 distances and left / right sides of court) would provide useful visual information, perhaps more than staring at full season data which is what is usually presented. A player level chart with 5-10 composite shots (depending on usage level of the player) would too. Plotting data based on these 6-8 zones for where assists originated, turnover occurred and FTAs were earned would further enhance the dataset. Per minute charts might be useful for star players. Could the data from the first quarter be used to usefully predict what is coming and be trained to get better predictions for last quarters or at later games between the same two teams?



Do you think any teams establish explicit efficiency and 4 factor level goals and then build their roster and rotations and shot distributions and play-calling to achieve those goals? I never heard an insider even hint that they are doing this but maybe they do. Shouldn’t they? Would it make sense to base it off a recent title winner, the one they think had the best set of these indicators or the one they think using money most efficiently or they specific to that moment in time set of resources and their targeted peak period or the composite of a few or many of them?

[Crow]

How long til someone in the NBA tries to make use of a DWave quantum computer to get an edge on the competition?

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/20 ... puter-usc/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D-Wave_Systems
http://www.dwavesys.com/

I would think this would a great tool for modeling plays and finding optimal pathways.

[Crow]

Fixing the dunk contest

Blue sky, I’d like to see them start with the highest vote-getting All-Star and ask him to pick his one on one dunk opponent. 3 attempts mano a mano each way. Successful dunks worth 5-10. Misses worth 5-10 for defender depending on the degree to which he was responsible for the miss. Do this for top 4-8 All-Stars and play out the bracket. If you can’t compel their participation, make them turn it down publicly and try to change that in next CBA.

But since they won’t do that, do this instead: invite up to 8 All-Stars to participate (and only All-Stars), accept all who say yes. Have an open floor and allow each participant to make up to 5 attempts. 2 misses and you have to wait for one last chance at the end of the session. Then let the 3 finalists have just 3 attempts. Best dunk wins.

[Crow]

This could be considered insensitive or offensive or just not interesting to some but I’ll throw this topic out there to see if any one else has opinions to share.

I saw this old article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?id=596975

Has there ever been a male vs female game, at even the high school level? In a brief look I found no mention of one. Will it ever happen? Would it be worthwhile? It probably won’t happen unless and until a female team and coach seeks out the challenge. It probably won’t happen straight-up because of physical differences in height and especially in weight (strength). It could be made more sporting if there was an effort to minimize or eliminate the height and weight differences. Would a team of WNBA All-Stars or the WNBA title winning team have a decent chance to beat a team of male starters from the Ivy league (or another lower level conference) chosen to be not taller than 6-6 or heavier than say 180 pounds and not more than 10-15% bigger than the WNBA players on average? Would they favored or not to beat a similarly sized cast of a mediocre or low ranking Div. 3 men’s team? What about high school boys who were say all-city in Des Moines Iowa or Burlington Vermont or maybe somewhat better than that? I am not sure what the most comparable level of male talent is at this point. Any other guesses or commentary? I did notice that all but one of the WNBA players (stars?) in the NBA All-Star weekend celebrity shot well. The best male players included a few college players but I think they were mainly in their late 20s (or older in the case of Arne Duncan) and probably not at their previous peak in skill and conditioning so it was hard to gauge their current talent vs that of the WNBA players in an overall way. I didn't see the WNBA make many heavily contested moves, mainly just open shots.

[Crow]

“Analytic” teams? I saw something quoting Dean Oliver that said there are 22-24 teams with “analytic” efforts or departments. I don’t recall the exact date of that statement but think it was from about a year ago. So that raises the question who are still holdouts from this style of effort? The candidates would seem to me to include Utah, Minnesota, LA Clippers, Chicago, probably New Orleans and maybe Sacramento (though with the new owner it seems more likely they are moving into this work). Anyone know enough to move any of these teams into the analytic column? Are there other teams with insufficient “analytic” efforts to be in that column?

[Crow]

With the impending addition of Udrih the Grizzlies will have 6 "white" players, the most in the league. All but Gasol were added in past year. All but Gasol are also negative on overall RAPM estimate. By JE's coaching RAPM the change of coaches from Hollins to Joerger is estimated to have a near -3 net value. One partial way to view the year to year change so far.

[J.E.]

With the impending addition of Udrih the Grizzlies will have 6 "white" players, the most in the league. All but Gasol were added in past year. All but Gasol are also negative on overall RAPM estimate. By JE's coaching RAPM the change of coaches from Hollins to Joerger is estimated to have a near -3 net value. One partial way to view the year to year change so far.

Which 6 players are you talking about? I only see 3 white players that play significant minutes.
For Calathes it's his first year in the league, he may be still adjusting to the NBA game. His RAPM estimate also has a very high standard error because of the low amount of total minutes.
Koufos had a strong xRAPM rating in '13. His +/- numbers were prettier in Denver but he was backing up McGee instead of M.Gasol. SPM likes him alot (ranked #25 or so)
Miller was probably brought in to stretch the floor - Memphis took the least amount of 3s in '13

Neither Koufos or Miller are expensive, either

[ilardi]

Not a huge fan of race-oriented NBA analyses, but I have long wondered if there might not be a pro-white bias in the NBA draft (at least among a subset of teams). Presumably, one could easily uncover salient historical data by looking at the expected value of each draftee's future NBA performance (RAPM, ASPM, etc) solely according to draft position, and then calculating the aggregate mean difference score (actual - expected) for all draftees over the past decade or two as a function of race. Is it possible that, on average, white players have been selected a bit higher than they "should" be?

[Crow]

JE, the 6 include the 4 you named (Gasol, Koufos, Miller, Calathes) and Leuer and now Udrih.

"White" players are more common on the bench or deep bench than playing big minutes.

I am not a huge fan either of "race"-oriented analysis of NBA or anything but it is a factor in how the NBA and the world works.

I would think that a study of race as a factor in the draft would find some bias toward white players still but far less than in the distant past.

A study of salaries by performance level could be illuminating too , especially in the top third or half of the range.

The average number of "white" starters on title winners since 2005-6 is 0.88. The total number on these rosters is 3.9. That is very probably above league average on the latter and probably higher on the former too.

[colts18]

Not a huge fan of race-oriented NBA analyses, but I have long wondered if there might not be a pro-white bias in the NBA draft (at least among a subset of teams). Presumably, one could easily uncover salient historical data by looking at the expected value of each draftee's future NBA performance (RAPM, ASPM, etc) solely according to draft position, and then calculating the aggregate mean difference score (actual - expected) for all draftees over the past decade or two as a function of race. Is it possible that, on average, white players have been selected a bit higher than they "should" be?

I don't really think there is a pro-white bias. But there is a pro-white european bias. American white players are typically looked at harshly by GM's/scouts while the European players aren't. Remember Jason Kapono's comment a few years back where he said if he was moved to Europe and named himself Jason Kaponovich, he would have been a lottery pick?

[Crow]

Wikipedia cites a study that says 17% of players in the NBA in 2011 were "white".

And here is the reference cited
http://www.webcitation.org/65eL31OLY


14 of the 101 players with at least 45 starts this season are "white" so the recent title winner percentage of white starters is indeed higher than the league average (thanks to Dallas, San Antonio and the Lakers).
http://bkref.com/tiny/U3diM

[colts18]

Wikipedia cites a study that says 17% of players in the NBA in 2011 were "white".

And here is the reference cited
http://www.webcitation.org/65eL31OLY

Is that American white or does that also include European and South American whites?


Total so-called "white"s from anywhere.


(With race / "white" being used mentioned here as a sociological classification.)

[xkonk]

This could be considered insensitive or offensive or just not interesting to some but I’ll throw this topic out there to see if any one else has opinions to share.

I saw this old article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?id=596975

Has there ever been a male vs female game....

That page won't load anything for me, so I can't speak to any of the content. But there's a 2007 book called Andy Roddick Beat Me with a Frying Pan that has a chapter on gender and sports. It starts with an anecdote about Artie Lange almost beating a professional women's basketball player 15 years his junior in a one-on-one game to 15 (he was up 14-10 but lost). Lange never played competitively past grade school. The author also beat a different pro 21-14. In terms of team play, it says that women's college basketball teams (such as University of Tennessee, so good teams) often scrimmage against men's IM teams (where the men obviously are not DI quality) and the games are competitive. Sonny Vaccaro is quoted as saying that a WNBA all-star team could be competitive at the low DI level or against an all-star team of the country's best 14-15 men. The chapter looks at a variety of sports and notes that even in games where physical ability shouldn't be an issue, like pool and darts, the gap shrinks but the best men are still better than the best women.

[Bobbofitos]

This could be considered insensitive or offensive or just not interesting to some but I’ll throw this topic out there to see if any one else has opinions to share.

I saw this old article.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?id=596975

Has there ever been a male vs female game....

That page won't load anything for me, so I can't speak to any of the content. But there's a 2007 book called Andy Roddick Beat Me with a Frying Pan that has a chapter on gender and sports. It starts with an anecdote about Artie Lange almost beating a professional women's basketball player 15 years his junior in a one-on-one game to 15 (he was up 14-10 but lost). Lange never played competitively past grade school. The author also beat a different pro 21-14. In terms of team play, it says that women's college basketball teams (such as University of Tennessee, so good teams) often scrimmage against men's IM teams (where the men obviously are not DI quality) and the games are competitive. Sonny Vaccaro is quoted as saying that a WNBA all-star team could be competitive at the low DI level or against an all-star team of the country's best 14-15 men. The chapter looks at a variety of sports and notes that even in games where physical ability shouldn't be an issue, like pool and darts, the gap shrinks but the best men are still better than the best women.

A friend of mine played on the Duke's woman's team (as a practice player). He said they routinely won - sometimes they lost, but basically a collection of guys with HS experience were favorites over one of the best women's programs in the country. This sorta jives with my own experience - any D1 men's basketball team would be prohibitive favorites against any woman's team.

[Statman]

“Analytic” teams? I saw something quoting Dean Oliver that said there are 22-24 teams with “analytic” efforts or departments. I don’t recall the exact date of that statement but think it was from about a year ago. So that raises the question who are still holdouts from this style of effort? The candidates would seem to me to include Utah, Minnesota, LA Clippers, Chicago, probably New Orleans and maybe Sacramento (though with the new owner it seems more likely they are moving into this work). Anyone know enough to move any of these teams into the analytic column? Are there other teams with insufficient “analytic” efforts to be in that column?

I read somewhere 29 teams sent a rep to the Sloan conference last year (big uptick), while all the teams sent someone this year (seems like the Lakers were the holdout?).

It still seems though like many teams will have tons of "scouts" (that they have to pay salaries AND tons of travel fees/per diems) - and one "stats" (analytics) guy. Not sure why you wouldn't have at least maybe a bench anayltics guy (live game situations/scouting next game), a draft/prospect/free agent/10 day contract analytics guy, and an assistant GM level analtics guy that oversees all analytics/video/draft related stuff and pulls it all together when need be. At least. Teamwork.