If both teams get roughly the same number of possessions....

[Chronz]

then whats with the old adage that every rebound takes away a possession from the opposing team?This implies that you can have dramatically different number of possessions.

I understand the reasoning behind possession based statistics, but I find the biggest hurdle when it comes to explaining it to others is traditional wordage.


Im trying to explain to a friend, that offensive rebounding is an OFFENSIVE stat and that it has very little influence on your defensive ranking. His argument being that preventing the opposing team from getting a possession is a defensive act in itself, that by limiting the opposing teams chances for scoring, you are in fact limiting their offense.

I really dont know how else to explain the relevance of advanced statistics, so I've turned to you guys. How can I make him understand? Is it semantics, is there no wrong approach?

[CoachO]

From a coaching standpoint, offensive rebounding from another team can limit your offensive effectiveness (thereby making their defense better). We were a great transition team on offense and teams that crashed the glass on us required us to focus more on our box outs than breaking out in transition, thus limiting our offensive effectiveness. It would slow the game down and force us into more of a half-court game.

[DSMok1]

You are correct, Chronz--the other team will get the ball eventually, though the type of transfer (rebound, made shot, steal, dead ball TO) and placement of players (like CoachO notes) do effect the efficiency of the subsequent possession by the other team.

Offensive rebounding mostly effects the offensive efficiency, by adding another "play" (chance) within that "possession" (period of controlling ball).

[Kevin Pelton]

I see your "extra possessions" cliche with the notion that "it's not a stop until you get a rebound," which implies that defensive rebounding is part of a good defense.

[boooeee]

I think you're just dealing with two different versions of possession. If you count an offensive rebound as a "new" possession, then the old adage that every team gets roughly the same number of possessions is just false. Good rebounding teams get more possessions than bad rebounding teams (under this non-standard definition of possession).

[schtevie]

It is semantics, but semantics is important, that is for those hoping to have meaningful conversations. And having a mutually agreed upon accounting system is a precondition for meaningful conversations.

The first thing I would suggest is for you to make clear to your friend that both teams don't get roughly the same number of possessions, but the exact same number of possessions* (the asterisk being that the difference can only be 1 or 2, reflecting the end of quarter conditions, and, on average, over a season, this can reasonably be expected to average to effective nothingness).

Years, decades, centuries, millennia ago, when I, Robinson Crusoe, began to think about these matters, I labeled what we now call possessions "common possessions", what I thought aptly descriptive, as the number is common to both teams. (Can't recall what my counterpart was to Dean Oliver's "plays", however.)

Anyway, given such a framework, that a possession comprises all activity prior to the ball (inevitably) reverting to the opposition, you then and only then have a basis for comparing opposing teams' total performances, both offensive and defensive.

As for your friend's objection/argument that offensive rebounding is a defensive skill because it prevents the opposing team from going on offense, well, that is confused and perhaps an unwitting bit of sophistry. On the face of it, why is it complicated? An offensive rebound allows an offense to continue with possession of the ball (er...on offense).

On your friend's same terms, ball-handling and passing skills, would have to be considered defensive skills (again, exhibited by the team when on offense). How so? Well, not turning the ball over (statistically 1-TO%) is the precondition for getting a scoring opportunity. You fail at that and the opposing team gets the ball, so the better you are at setting up a shot, the better your team is on defense. Brilliant!

And then we could go farther through the looking glass. Missing shots is on these terms a defensive skill. For to miss a shot at least allows you the opportunity to regain possession of the ball (via a defensive offensive rebound). You make the shot and the opposing team gets the ball straight away. Defensive failure!

So, the moral of the story is that a possession (common possession) basis is the necessary precondition for productive conversations about basketball, and if one subsequently wishes to agree to disagree about the underlying meaning of the words offense and defense, that simply isn't helpful.

[Mike G]

Almost every play affects both your defense and your offense. Usually it's more one than the other; in the case of a steal at mid-court, it may be equal parts of each.
After a made shot, your D will tend to be a bit better than after a missed shot rebounded by the opponent.
If you crash the boards on offense, you leave yourself vulnerable on defense -- if you don't come up with the O-Reb.

An offensive rebound is roughly equivalent to a first down in football -- you get another set of downs or 24 seconds.
And in football, your possession lasts until the other team gets the ball. Same as basketball.

[Chronz]

Almost every play affects both your defense and your offense. Usually it's more one than the other; in the case of a steal at mid-court, it may be equal parts of each.
After a made shot, your D will tend to be a bit better than after a missed shot rebounded by the opponent.
If you crash the boards on offense, you leave yourself vulnerable on defense -- if you don't come up with the O-Reb.

An offensive rebound is roughly equivalent to a first down in football -- you get another set of downs or 24 seconds.
And in football, your possession lasts until the other team gets the ball. Same as basketball.

Agreed, my friend and I both believe that offensive and defensive aspects of the game are in some way interwoven within transition play, what Im trying to make him understand is that, that fact doesn't make every stat both an offensive and defensive one.

You and schtevie brought up ball handling, and by not turning the ball over you are limiting the opposing teams chances for high% transition opportunities. That doesn't make your individual assist/turnover rates a defensive stat worth touting in the race for DPOY, does it? Should it? We may as well start looking at PPG when discussing DPOY if thats the case. Hes already admitted he doesn't include individual FG% as part of the defensive equation, but if all stats intertwine, that would make him a hypocrite for only including offensive rebounding.


This was his hypothetical;

If you shoot 50% from the floor and you get 100 possession, you're scoring on half of those possession.
If you allow your opponents to shoot 60%, but limit them to 80 possessions, they will score less.

Hes technically right but only because we cant come to an agreement on what constitutes possessions/efficiency.

I hate doing this but there is no other route but to agree to disagree, I can only find solace in the fact that those within NBA surely don't quantify stats in this manner. At least not to my knowledge.

[CoachO]

Sounds likes a simple solution.

Come to an agreement on what a "possession" is, whether you 100% buy it or not. Then show points per possession in the scenario.

Then show him how 100 points in 90 possessions is much different than 98 points in 80 possessions or something along those lines.


edit**
Can also show Dean Oliver's Play %

"Play Percentage -
Definition: Scoring possessions divided by possessions, omitting offensive rebounds. This serves as an estimate of how well a team scores if they never got an offensive rebound.

Applicability: This method applies in a straightforward manner to teams.

Calculating Play Percentage for Teams: Play %= [FG+0.4*FTA*(FG%*FG%+2*FG%*(1-FG%))]/(FGA+0.4*FTA+TO)