Value of Drawing Fouls

[rshea]

Has anyone tried to study the benefits of drawing fouls beyond any immediate free throws? I'm more interested in the value of getting your team closer to the bonus and placing opposing players in foul trouble. Any ideas on how to measure this?

[bchaikin]

i do this all the time via simulation. but the "study" has to be more fine-tuned, i.e. the question better defined...

for example you can have an SG draw twice as many fouls as another SG in the same amount of playing time, but if the one drawing the fewer fouls is also the better overall shooter, then there are other factors to consider...

[nbo2]

There should be an "in the bonus" variable in all APM regressions. Otherwise players who foul a lot will be overrated and players who draw a lot of fouls will be underrated. Run a separate APM regression for team fouls and opponent team fouls. Then the relationship between getting in the bonus and the value of being in the bonus should indicate the value of fouling and drawing fouls.

[bbstats]

@nbo

I agree with the premise, but that sounds hard ish to measure.

[JimiHendrix]

Even if a player doesn't get to the free throw line with drawn fouls, they deserve to have some credit assigned.

Consider this example: Player X draws two fouls in the fourth quarter, but doesn't go to the line for either of them. Those two fouls still get the team that much closer to the bonus, which especially becomes valuable in the last two minutes of the quarter. I'd view it as a "secondary assist," in a way, if that makes any sense.

It's probably difficult to assign any type of "value" here, but it's an important and often unappreciated part of certain player's skillsets, like a LeBron James, or a Paul Pierce in his prime.

[rshea]

Even if a player doesn't get to the free throw line with drawn fouls, they deserve to have some credit assigned.

Right. Additionally there is value in placing a key opponent in foul trouble to the point that the opponent must be benched. Is there any way for the RAPM framework to incorporate this?

Kirk Goldsberry recently wrote for Grantland about Tyler Hansbrough's elite ability to draw fouls as measured by drawn fouls per 48 minutes.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/tyler ... -the-heel/

[J.E.]

Way back when I checked offensive efficiency when in the bonus vs. not in the bonus and found almost no difference. I didn't control for player strength or state of the game though, just looked at raw efficiency. Definitely worth investigating again

Another thing I did a long time ago was create rankings 'fouled by players with an RAPM of >3', 'fouled by players with an RAPM of >1 & <3', etc. (all 'per minute'). Obviously, getting 'good' players into foul trouble is more valuable than getting 'not so good' players into foul trouble. In some strange instances it may be beneficial to *not* get an opponent into foul trouble (e.g. get Kendrick Perkins into foul trouble and they bring in Nick Collison..)

Something else that the RAPM framework could be good for: A couple of years back someone at SSAC presented a study that said, I believe, players with
'personal_fouls > current_quarter'

don't defend as well. This might only be true for players that are 'expected' to play more than 28(?) minutes though