Offseason NBA Player Movement Predictions

[Notsellingjeans]

I'll start with the Heat, hopefully others will chime in with their own:

Despite being the 4th/5th best player on the team, Mario Chalmers might be the player that affects the team's off-season strategy the most. We know the Heat will prioritize the Big 3; will they pay the repeater tax to bring back Chalmers too? With an aging core, they might have to make a very difficult decision with him. On one hand, they can't afford to lose one of their few young core pieces; on the other, re-signing Chalmers sends them sky-high in the repeater tax again, and ties up potential future salary cap space that could've been used elsewhere in the event of the Big 3 recruiting another elite player. If Chalmers wants a market-value contract as a starting PG, I think he'll be gone. If he's willing to make a big financial sacrifice to stay, then I think he'll be back, and the Heat will ride basically their exact same team in to 2015, only even thinner depthwise, due to retirements and the luxury tax restrictions.

I think the Heat will quietly reach out to Carmelo before free agency starts. I think if Carmelo was willing to come to Miami for 4 years, $60M - less than half the total money that New York could pay him - then Bosh/Wade/Lebron would all agree to opt out and sign contracts starting in the $14M range. This plan would also require Haslem to opt out of his $4.62M option for next year, and re-sign with the Heat for 5 years, $7M - a league minimum deal with raises each year, and the understanding that Haslem will have a job in the organization post-retirement for life.

The Heat would be using about $57M of next year's ~$63M of cap space on Carmelo, Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. The rest of the team would be Cole, Birdman, Haslem, this year's first-round draft pick (another fast, defense-first PG like Cole, to replace the loss of Chalmers), Hamilton, and 4 other minimum-salary guys. They would need wing depth - a guy who had made plenty of money and wanted a title like Richard Jefferson signing in one of those minimum-salary slots. That would probably be a title team, despite the thin bench and the reliance on four guys for 85-90% of the scoring.

With the likely retirement of Battier and Rashard Lewis, Carmelo would take on the role of undersized stretch 4, a role he thrived in two years ago in New York in small lineups, with Haslem playing behind him off the bench. Either Cole or the first-round draft pick PG would always be on the court, chasing opposing PG's around screens and providing pressure. The Heat would have to continue to play small lineups and rotate aggressively, as they've done with great success.

Given that the Heat would get under the salary cap for next year with this plan (avoiding the repeater tax, and thereby avoiding future taxes for a few years), and given that they'd be able to use the mid-level exception to add another good free agent in year 2 of this "Big 4" plan, AND given that Carmelo's presence would enable to them to marshal the minutes of the other big 3 much better (especially Lebron) in future years, I think this hypothetical team would actually be able to extend the Heat's dominance through the entire 4-5 year window they are together (up to age 35-37 for all these core guys). To me, this is the only way the Heat's championship run can continue. If the Big Three simply "opt in," stay in Miami, and the Heat re-sign Mario Chalmers to a market-value free agent deal, the team becomes too expensive to improve around the edges.

Although it's pretty farfetched to expect four NBA stars to all sign free agent deals for roughly half what they are able to earn on the open market, I think the opportunity to continue to win championships has a small chance of swaying them in this direction. This is Lebron and Bosh's chance to retire with 7-8 championship rings.

[Dr Positivity]

Love to Golden State - this just seems like the most likely destination to me, after they inevitably cave and put Klay into the deal. By getting Klay, Barnes, Lee and Green MIN gets to try and "win now" which I think is what they want, while also adding young talent.

Carmelo S&T to Houston - the rumors of this are starting to pick up so I'll go with it. New York caves after Melo says he's leaving and decides to S&T to make the deal easier for HOU. HOU has deals lined up to trade Lin or Asik if they don't S&T, such as including Terrence Jones with Lin to PHI or w/e.

Deng to Cavs - Takes the money

LBJ, Wade, Bosh all back to Heat - I don't see LBJ or Bosh turning their back on Don Riley and Wade

[Bobbofitos]

Love to Golden State - this just seems like the most likely destination to me, after they inevitably cave and put Klay into the deal. By getting Klay, Barnes, Lee and Green MIN gets to try and "win now" which I think is what they want, while also adding young talent.

There is 0 chance Minny does this trade.

[Crow]

Portland's playoff defense was so bad on most or all factors that I think they have to make some changes. They wouldn't change head coach but I'd sure change defensive strategy employed or an assistant or two. Seems unlikely to change any starters but I'd consider moving Matthews or Batum for a better defensive wing or use an exception to add the option of one to the mix at least. I'd try to get another decent big defender off the bench or trade anyone on the bench for someone less terrible at defense or defensive effort (with the exception of Freeland maybe).

I have no insight into Melo or Phil's minds but I think it is more likely that one really isn't wholeheartedly into working with the other or both than that they both are, whether they act they way or not in making or not making a deal.

I fail to see how Kerr will help GSW's defense. I know he wants to bring in a defensive guru. It might work but it is an admission that that task is above or beyond him IMO. A healthy Bogut actually playing in the playoffs will help but they shouldn't have been that bad with the defensive pieces they did still have. Some at least modest shift probably needs to occur in the rotation to increase the defensive performance. Clippers have more work or changes to do as well to improve their defense. (Three of the 4 conference finalists were at least good on playoff defense, only 2 are on offense.)

I think Cleveland would be wise to trade Irving but I dunno what the best offer they'd get for him would be.

I am expecting a Gasol sign n trade. I really can't see them competing for more than the 8th seed this coming season though. I do not think Kobe will be happy with the Laker's choices for the immediate 2 years. But he took the money.

Utah and Denver need major changes. I am guessing one at most will do something significant. Milwaukee is a real mess. Orlando and Philly still have not established much that I would call solid foundation to build around yet. I assume they are on at least a 2-3 more season rebuild plan.

[Notsellingjeans]

A potentially underreported story in the media right now is the amount of cap space available that so many teams have.

Look at the teams at the bottom of this "committed money" list for 2014/2015:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

Now, do those teams (especially Philly) want to tank for one more year? I predict that at least one of those teams at the bottom of the list does what Utah did last off-season - get to the salary floor by taking on terrible expiring contracts in exchange for future draft picks. Last year that was Richard Jefferson and Andris Biedrins.

This offseason, I could see Boozer, Perkins, Bargnani, and even Amare being dealt to a team that intended to be terrible next season, in exchange for future first-rounders (multiple future first rounders in Amare's case, since it's $24M). The big contract helps that rebuilding team reach the salary floor, and sets them up to finish in the bottom 5 again in 2015.

We might even see a team take on two years of a bad contract to acquire first-round picks. The list of guys who fall into that category is longer. But the dynamic that puts this in play is that there are several teams in the "tank" category who are smart, well-managed, and have clean cap sheets.

Now, only 1-2 teams could realistically take on that strategy. But another alternative is 1-2 of the other rebuilding teams throwing money at restricted FAs. Of course a team like Philadelphia shouldn't want to throw it's $35M of cap space at veterans in their 30s like Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, and Pau Gasol...but if they have to spend it somewhere, shouldn't they overpay on a restricted FA who is about the same age as their core guys?

I've read multiple websites speculate that Eric Bledsoe will get offered something in the $8-9M range. I think anyone writing that isn't looking at how much available cap space there is out there. Some rebuilding team is gonna offer Bledsoe the restricted FA max that starts at ~$14M per year. Another team will offer that to Gordon Heyward. You either drive up the price for your competitor to match, or you get "stuck with" a bit of an overpay on a high-character 23-24 year old guy on a four year deal who is about the same age of your core guys you just drafted.

[Bobbofitos]

Bledsoe is 100% lock to get maxed.

Hayward and Lance are the real interesting offseason FAs. I think they each, minimum, get the 4/40 deal. I wouldn't be shocked to see either get offered 4/48

[Notsellingjeans]

I think Isaiah Thomas and Greg Monroe are going to get huge RFA offers too.

[Crow]

Not sure how much Isiah Thomas gets or deserves. Many GMs are not IMO that fine tuned with analytic support for large offers.

I am not sure what Toronto offers Lowry to stay. Probably should try to keep him but may end up over paying as he ages further.

[Bobbofitos]

Not sure how much Isiah Thomas gets or deserves. Many GMs are not IMO that fine tuned with analytic support for large offers.

I am not sure what Toronto offers Lowry to stay. Probably should try to keep him but may end up over paying as he ages further.

My prediction is Lowry gets 10mil/yr. Look at the recent crop of PGs who landed 8mil/yr -Calderon, Teague, George Hill, Monta, Jennings... Lowry is better than all those guys (by a decent margin). The real issue will be length. He'll probably push for 4 years, but that extends well into his decline. 2 years would be great, they probably settle on 3. Depending on Toronto's cap and what they do they could even offer the descending contract, something like 12/10/8 (not sure what % max/min are).

[Crow]

Who gets Channing Frye for much and for what level of contention impact. By RPM he had one of the best seasons.

[Mike G]

Lowry is better than all those guys (by a decent margin). The real issue will be length. He'll probably push for 4 years, but that extends well into his decline. ...

Lowry was 8th in the league in Win Shares this season. He's 27 yrs old.
Top 10 WS, age this season and career RS minutes:

Code: Select all

Win Shares    Age   Min.
19.2  Durant   25  20,717  
15.9  LeBron   29  33,276
14.3  Love     25  11,933 
13.4  Curry    25  11,946
12.8  Harden   24  11,635
12.2  Griffin  24  10,965
12.2  Paul     28  22,448
11.7  Lowry    27  14,549
11.2  Noah     28  14,164
11.1  Jordan   25  10,633

While Lowry is 3rd oldest in this group, he's logged fewer minutes per year. He's 2-3 years older than most, yet he's barely a year's worth of minutes ahead.
Minutes are often more telling in a player's trajectory, than is his age.

[Mike G]

Looking for guards with careers kinda-similar to Kyle Lowry thru age 27 -- he has 14,500 minutes, and 41 Win Shares: Since 1980 there are 47 guards with 13,000 to 16,000 minutes and at least 30 WS, by age 27 --
http://bkref.com/tiny/yY6mY

Among these, Lowry ranks 17th in career WS thru age 27.
31 have completed their careers (including Billups and omitting Reggie Lewis).

Ranked by fraction of career WS after age 27 -

Code: Select all

28+    win shares     <27   total      28+    win shares     <27   total
.71   John Stockton*  59.9  207.7      .43   Nick Van Exel   32.0   55.9
.70   Jeff Hornacek   32.2  108.9      .42   Mark Price      41.4   71.1
.69  Chauncey Billups 38.0  120.8      .41  Damon Stoudamire 32.9   55.4
.63   Eddie Jones     37.5  100.6      .39   Doc Rivers      41.8   68.2
.59   Rod Strickland  35.6   85.8      .38   Sleepy Floyd    31.6   50.6
.58   Mark Jackson    38.3   91.8      .36   Terrell Brandon 41.9   65.9
.58   Maurice Cheeks  41.8   98.6      .36   Fat Lever       39.0   61.2
.56   Dan Majerle     34.9   78.5      .34   Alvin Robertson 34.6   52.1
.55   Joe Dumars*     38.9   86.2      .33   Kenny Smith     31.2   46.8
.55   Steve Smith     37.9   83.7      .28   Sidney Moncrief 65.2   90.3
.55   Derek Harper    39.4   86.8      .26   B.J. Armstrong  33.5   45.0
.53   Mookie Blaylock 33.4   71.8      .25 Anfernee Hardaway 46.3   61.9
.52   Terry Porter    52.9  110.4      .23   Jim Paxson      41.6   53.7
.47   Byron Scott     39.9   75.2      .19   Michael Redd    45.3   55.9
.46   Reggie Theus    34.3   63.7      .00   Brandon Roy     37.5   37.4
.45  Rolando Blackman 41.8   75.6      .44   - averages -    39.8   78.0

In total WS among this group, 51% were attained after age 27, thanks to some gargantuan careers.

Among players active this year, we find Carter (.60 of his WS so far at 28+), A Miller (.62), Wade (.46), Hinrich (.36), D Harris (.22), JR Smith (.11), and K Martin (.27)
The others have not played past age 27 -- Westbrook, Harden, L Williams, G Hill, Curry, Lawson, and Lowry.