2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs

[Mike G]

Spurs 1, Heat 0
110 - 95
Pythagorean wins .88 - .12, eWins .69 - .31

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Manu Ginobili  SAS   32  .696   21.9   7.1  10.5   3.3   3.3   2.3  1.1   2.43
.16   Tim Duncan     SAS   33  .875   34.9  14.4   2.9   2.2    .0   5.8   .0   2.32
.13   LeBron James   Mia   33  .625   29.2   8.7   2.6   1.1   3.3   5.0   .0   1.90
.11   Chris Bosh     Mia   34  .783   23.8  12.6    .9   2.2    .0   2.4   .0   1.52
.10   Ray Allen      Mia   32  .615   17.9   4.2   2.6   4.4   5.5    .0   .0   1.48

.08   Tiago Splitter SAS   23  .824   32.3   8.4    .0   1.6    .0   6.8  3.2   1.68
.07   Danny Green    SAS   28  .650   20.1   5.1   1.2   2.6   2.6   1.4  1.3   1.28
.07   Tony Parker    SAS   37  .594   20.9    .0   6.9   1.0   1.0   4.1   .0    .90
.05   Patrick Mills  SAS   12  .700   23.9  10.9    .0    .0   2.8    .0   .0   1.91
.05  Marco Belinelli SAS   18  .900   25.5   4.9   1.7   1.9    .0   2.0   .0   1.23

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Dwyane Wade    Mia   33  .500   18.6   4.3   1.8   4.5   1.1   2.5   .0    .67
.04   Boris Diaw     SAS   33  .200    1.0  13.8   5.6   1.1    .0   1.1   .0    .55
.01   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   23  .750   19.3   4.2    .0   4.9   1.6   6.8   .0    .16

-.01  Chris Andersen Mia   18  .500    3.3   7.3    .0    .0    .0   2.1  1.9   -.19
-.01   Norris Cole   Mia   29  .250    1.3   4.7   4.7   3.6   2.4   2.7   .0   -.13
-.02   Rashard Lewis Mia   31  .500   10.3    .0    .0   1.2    .0    .0   .0   -.24
-.02   Shane Battier Mia   14  .000     .0   3.1   1.9   2.4    .0    .0   .0   -.59
-.02  Mario Chalmers Mia   17  .500    5.9   2.9   1.7  11.0   6.6  12.4  2.2   -.63

shooting: SA .696 - .569 Mia
rebounds: SA 39 - 29 Mia
turnovers: Mia 18 - 23 SA

[Mike G]

Spurs 1, Heat 1
avg score: SA 103 - 96.5 Mia
Pyth wins 1.41 - .59, eWins 1.20 - .80

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.37   LeBron James   Mia   36  .674   37.0  10.1   3.3   2.1   2.6   4.7   .0   2.52
.27   Tim Duncan     SAS   36  .650   24.7  16.1   2.3   2.1    .0   4.3   .5   1.84
.26   Manu Ginobili  SAS   30  .625   24.4   5.1   9.9   3.5   2.3   3.0   .6   2.12
.21   Tony Parker    SAS   36  .588   23.1    .0   8.8   1.0   1.0   2.6   .0   1.40
.20   Chris Bosh     Mia   35  .706   22.0   7.7   1.7   2.1    .5   1.2   .5   1.36

.14   Ray Allen      Mia   33  .625   14.0   3.9   2.5   2.7   3.8    .0   .5   1.05
.13   Tiago Splitter SAS   21  .696   18.7  11.1   5.0   3.6    .9   4.6  1.8   1.51
.13   Boris Diaw     SAS   33  .321    3.3  13.4   7.2    .5    .5   1.1   .0    .93
.12   Danny Green    SAS   23  .710   22.0   4.1    .9   4.1   2.5    .9   .8   1.28
.12   Dwyane Wade    Mia   34  .550   18.2   6.7   3.8   2.7   1.1   4.4   .0    .83

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Patrick Mills  SAS   14  .625   20.0   4.6    .0   1.2   1.2    .0   .0    .95
.04   Rashard Lewis  Mia   29  .600   15.2    .8    .7   2.6    .0    .0   .7    .31
.02   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   28  .563   12.9   3.4   2.3   6.1   1.3   2.8   .0    .22
.01  Marco Belinelli SAS   21  .600   11.1   3.1   1.9    .8    .8   2.6   .0    .07

-.01   Norris Cole   Mia   20  .167     .7   5.2   6.0   4.3   1.7   2.9   .0   -.13
-.01  Chris Andersen Mia   21  .357    2.8  11.9    .0   2.4    .0   2.8   .8   -.13
-.01  Mario Chalmers Mia   24  .500    5.8   3.8   4.5   6.2   2.3   5.3   .8   -.15

shooting: SA .602 - .588 Mia
rebounds: SA 38.0 - 33.5 Mia
turnovers: Mia 16.5 - 17.0 SA

[Mike G]

Spurs 2, Heat 1
avg score 105.7 - 95.0
Pyth wins 2.41 - .59, eWins 1.96 - 1.04

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.49   LeBron James   Mia   37  .683   32.0   9.2   4.8   3.0   3.3   5.5   .0   2.15
.34   Tim Duncan     SAS   34  .646   23.7  15.3   2.7   2.2    .0   4.6   .4   1.63
.31   Manu Ginobili  SAS   29  .622   22.0   5.4   8.1   4.0   2.0   2.5   .4   1.71
.29   Tony Parker    SAS   35  .585   21.8    .5   8.5   2.1   1.4   2.2   .0   1.33
.27   Danny Green    SAS   22  .771   27.8   3.8   2.7   5.0   4.4   1.7  1.1   1.92

.25   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   31  .723   23.7   4.2   2.4   5.1   1.6   2.0   .8   1.25
.20   Chris Bosh     Mia   35  .763   18.2   6.9   1.2   2.8    .4    .8   .4    .93
.20   Dwyane Wade    Mia   34  .598   20.6   6.5   3.3   2.5   1.4   4.7   .0    .91
.18   Boris Diaw     SAS   34  .409    5.3  11.7   6.3   1.4    .7   1.5   .3    .85
.17   Tiago Splitter SAS   19  .710   18.3  11.9   4.7   4.4    .6   3.9  1.2   1.42

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.15   Ray Allen      Mia   31  .610   13.6   3.9   3.0   3.0   2.6   1.2   .4    .75
.11   Patrick Mills  SAS   14  .588   17.1   5.5   4.1    .8   1.6    .0   .0   1.21
.09   Rashard Lewis  Mia   30  .704   16.4   2.7    .5   2.9    .0    .0   .4    .47
.02   Chris Andersen Mia   21  .400    3.2  12.4    .0   2.2    .6   1.8  1.1    .16
.02  Marco Belinelli SAS   16  .577   11.6   3.9   1.8   1.4    .7   2.3   .0    .16

-.02   Norris Cole   Mia   19  .313    3.8   3.9   5.0   3.5   1.2   3.3   .0   -.20
-.04  Mario Chalmers Mia   23  .357    3.8   4.2   5.7   6.4   1.6   5.3   .5   -.25

shooting: SA .631 - Mia .599
rebounds: SA 35.0 - 31.0 Mia
turnovers: SA 15.7 - 18.0 Mia

[Crow]

Top 3s about even. Spurs bench gives the current lead.

[Mike G]

Spurs 3, Heat 1
avg score 106.0 - 92.8
Pyth wins 3.42 - .58, eWins 2.71 - 1.29

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.67   LeBron James   Mia   37  .688   33.0   9.4   3.6   2.2   2.5   4.9   .0   2.16
.50   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   33  .705   24.9   8.0   2.4   4.4   1.9   1.7  1.4   1.80
.45   Tim Duncan     SAS   33  .606   21.0  15.3   2.4   2.5    .6   3.5   .6   1.63
.34   Danny Green    SAS   22  .793   29.8   4.5   1.9   6.1   3.5   2.3   .9   1.89
.31   Tony Parker    SAS   35  .578   22.3    .3   6.1   1.8   1.0   2.8   .0   1.07

.29   Manu Ginobili  SAS   29  .624   19.8   4.4   6.0   3.9   1.5   3.2   .3   1.19
.26   Boris Diaw     SAS   35  .433    6.0  11.6   6.7   1.0    .8   1.6   .3    .91
.23   Chris Bosh     Mia   36  .687   16.7   6.4    .8   2.6    .8   1.1   .3    .77
.22   Tiago Splitter SAS   18  .718   19.3   9.7   4.3   3.5   1.0   3.1  1.0   1.43
.20   Dwyane Wade    Mia   34  .516   16.5   5.7   3.3   3.0   2.2   4.4   .0    .71

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.19   Patrick Mills  SAS   15  .680   25.4   4.6   3.8   1.7   1.2    .6   .0   1.60
.14   Ray Allen      Mia   31  .620   13.2   3.7   2.0   3.4   2.0   1.2   .3    .56
.08   Rashard Lewis  Mia   27  .645   14.8   2.8    .4   2.8    .0    .4   .7    .36
.05   Matt Bonner    SAS    5  .833   13.1   6.5   5.4   3.3   1.7    .0   .0   1.21
.05   Chris Andersen Mia   18  .406    4.5  13.6    .0   4.2    .5   1.6   .9    .33

.03  Marco Belinelli SAS   13  .594   14.3   3.4   1.4   1.3    .7   2.1   .0    .32
-.03   Shane Battier Mia    6  .000     .0   2.0   1.5   4.5    .0    .0   .0   -.70
-.04   Norris Cole   Mia   19  .389    4.6   3.0   3.7   3.2    .9   3.0   .0   -.28
-.05  Mario Chalmers Mia   25  .350    3.4   2.9   5.2   5.5   1.5   4.0   .4   -.25

shooting: SA .636 - .582 Mia
rebounds: SA 37.3 - 30.0 Mia
turnovers: SA 15.5 - 17.0 Mia

[Bobbofitos]

Mike, is it fair to say you have Kawhi as the frontrunner for finals MVP?

[Mike G]

You know, I saw that in some commentary and sort of dismissed it -- until I ran the numbers.
The numbers say LeBron is actually contributing the most, and by a good bit. And when is the last time a member of the losing team (presuming the Spurs go on to win) would have been the best player?

In 2004, Det vs LAL, I did not think it possible that anyone but Shaq could be the biggest factor. The Pistons might win by greater depth ... but at the end, Shaq did not have the best numbers; Billups did.

I can see a loser taking mvp, if it goes 7 games. In this one, it's possible Miami goes out in 5, and LeBron is still the star of stars. Then we'd have an almost unprecedented situation.
There are several occasions when arguably the wrong winner got Finals mvp. As far as deserving losers, I guess Kareem in '74. That one went 7, and he was still snubbed, so I guess that's out.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... inals.html

Kawhi for mvp could certainly be argued given that he's the primary defender on LeBron. Nobody else seems to do much good on that end.
His first 2 games were kind of wasted. But sometimes the award is stolen by whoever had the best last game -- Magic in 1980, Worthy in '88. They didn't have the greatest series, just great closing games.

Even when the title is taken by an ensemble cast like these Spurs, the Finals mvp has played at least 37 mpg (Dumars'89). Since those Bad Boys, just 3 winners have gone under 40 mpg -- Billups, Parker, Pierce. Kawhi is averaging 33 mpg, behind Parker (35) and Diaw (34.5)
It's all new territory.

[Mike G]

On 2nd thought:
Game 1 was close most of the way, game 2 was close to the end. In these games, Kawhi Leonard had .01 eWins.
After 2 games, his eW rate was .22 of average.

In the next 2 games, he was dominant, and both were 20-point wins.
Chances are, the Spurs win both games with or without Leonard playing especially well.

Tim Duncan, meanwhile, has been a model of consistency. His game eWins are .16, .11, .07, .11 -- more proficient in the close games.
While Kawhi has been excellent on defense, Duncan is really the anchor for it. Having Tim back there makes it less risky to press your man on the perimeter.

[Mike G]

This year's Finalist personnel are about 90% the same as last year's. After 4 games this year, vs last year:

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San Antonio Spurs: 2013 and 2014 Finals

      Kawhi Leonard 
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13   36   .576   15.4  12.7    .9   2.3   2.0   1.1   .4   1.63   .123
14   33   .705   24.9   8.0   2.4   4.4   1.9   1.7  1.4   1.80   .100

      Tim Duncan                           
13   36   .543   20.5  13.8   1.4   2.3    .9   2.5  1.4   2.06   .154
14   33   .606   21.0  15.3   2.4   2.5    .6   3.5   .6   1.63   .090

      Danny Green
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13   35   .645   15.5   4.8    .7   3.6   1.0   1.3  1.6    .76   .056
14   22   .793   29.8   4.5   1.9   6.1   3.5   2.3   .9   1.89   .068

      Tony Parker                           
13   35   .464   16.7   2.2   6.8   1.0   1.0   2.4   .1   1.08   .079
14   35   .578   22.3    .3   6.1   1.8   1.0   2.8   .0   1.07   .062

      Manu Ginobili 
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13   28   .547   16.3   3.0   5.4   4.1    .9   4.3   .0    .66   .039
14   29   .624   19.8   4.4   6.0   3.9   1.5   3.2   .3   1.19   .057

      Boris Diaw                           
13   14   .600    9.6   6.0   3.5   2.8    .0   1.9   .4    .46   .013
14   35   .433    6.0  11.6   6.7   1.0    .8   1.6   .3    .91   .052

      Tiago Splitter  
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13   15   .500   12.0   5.3   1.0   3.7   1.7   3.3  1.0    .27   .009
14   18   .718   19.3   9.7   4.3   3.5   1.0   3.1  1.0   1.43   .043

      Patrick Mills                           
14   15   .680   25.4   4.6   3.8   1.7   1.2    .6   .0   1.60   .039

      Matt Bonner   
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13    5   .500    9.2   7.2    .9   1.8    .9    .0   .0    .46   .004
14    5   .833   13.1   6.5   5.4   3.3   1.7    .0   .0   1.21   .010

      Marco Belinelli                           
14   13   .594   14.3   3.4   1.4   1.3    .7   2.1   .0    .32   .007

      Cory Joseph  
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13    6   .458    8.9   5.2   4.6    .0   1.5   4.1   .0    .39   .004
14    1   1.00   22.6    .0    .0   6.5    .0    .0   .0    .63   .001

      Gary Neal
13   24   .550   13.7   3.9   1.2   2.0    .0   1.7   .0    .26   .013



Miami Heat : 2013 and 2014 Finals

      LeBron James
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13   43   .522   22.7   9.8   5.6   1.2   1.9   2.5   .7   2.34   .207
14   37   .688   33.0   9.4   3.6   2.2   2.5   4.9   .0   2.16   .134

      Chris Bosh                           
13   34   .485   12.7  10.2   2.2   2.9   1.8   1.3  1.7   1.29   .090
14   36   .687   16.7   6.4    .8   2.6    .8   1.1   .3    .77   .046

      Dwyane Wade
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13   36   .496   20.5   4.3   4.5   1.4   2.0   2.5  1.3   1.51   .113
14   34   .516   16.5   5.7   3.3   3.0   2.2   4.4   .0    .71   .040

      Ray Allen                           
13   27   .705   15.6   3.1   1.9   3.2    .2   1.9   .0    .47   .026
14   31   .620   13.2   3.7   2.0   3.4   2.0   1.2   .3    .56   .029

      Rashard Lewis
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
14   27   .645   14.8   2.8    .4   2.8    .0    .4   .7    .36   .016

      Chris Andersen                           
13   10   .688   12.2   7.6    .0   7.6   1.9   2.2  1.4    .51   .010
14   18   .406    4.5  13.6    .0   4.2    .5   1.6   .9    .33   .010

      Udonis Haslem
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13    9   .474    4.6  10.5    .0   8.7    .0    .7   .6   -.19  -.003
14    3   .333    3.0   9.9    .0   5.0    .0    .0   .0   -.07   .000

      Shane Battier                           
13   12   .684   15.7   4.5   2.2   3.8    .4    .0   .8    .89   .023
14    6   .000     .0   2.0   1.5   4.5    .0    .0   .0   -.70  -.006

      Norris Cole 
yr   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eW/G
13   12   .326    5.3   2.2   4.8   3.7   1.6   2.4   .4   -.27  -.007
14   19   .389    4.6   3.0   3.7   3.2    .9   3.0   .0   -.28  -.009

      Mario Chalmers                           
13   32   .503   12.8   3.4   2.4   3.0    .8   3.5   .0    .11   .007
14   25   .350    3.4   2.9   5.2   5.5   1.5   4.0   .4   -.25  -.010

      Mike Miller
13   22   .841   10.1   4.8   1.4   4.1   1.0    .6   .5    .36   .016

Rashard Lewis has effectively replaced Mike Miller; Mills and Bellinelli have taken Neal and Joseph's minutes.
Parker has 1 rebound in 140 minutes this year.
Chris Anderson has zero assists in 143 minutes, over both Finals.

[Bobbofitos]

Congratulations to the Spurs! Amazing and beautiful team basketball this season. Well deserved.

[J.E.]

Yes. Congratulations to the Spurs, and their entire organization

[Mike G]

I didn't understand all the talk on TV about how the Heat need to rebuild. Yeah, they could use some youth. But basically, DWade was terrible -- by his normal standards, by his usually excellent playoff standard, and relative to his previous 3 series.
Chalmers, same story. He had a history of playoff excellence, until now.

Bosh and Ray shot well but not very often. And Spoelstra seems to be fixated on moving guys in and out of the rotation. If things aren't working, why not bring in Haslem, Battier, Jones, or Beasley? Since when is fewer options supposed to be better?

[Mike G]

Spurs 4, Heat 1
avg score 105.6 - 91.6
Pythagorean wins 4.34 - .66, eWins 3.42 - 1.58

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eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.88   LeBron James   Mia   38  .668   31.8   9.6   3.7   1.9   1.9   4.1   .4   2.22
.71   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   33  .736   27.3   8.8   2.3   4.9   1.8   2.1  1.3   2.03
.56   Tim Duncan     SAS   33  .592   20.2  13.9   2.4   2.7    .4   2.8   .9   1.63
.41   Manu Ginobili  SAS   29  .643   22.1   4.5   5.8   3.9   1.2   3.0   .2   1.37
.34   Tony Parker    SAS   35  .542   20.6    .5   5.3   1.9    .8   2.2   .0    .94

.32   Boris Diaw     SAS   35  .419    5.7  11.0   6.6   1.0    .8   1.7   .2    .87
.31   Patrick Mills  SAS   15  .729   30.6   3.9   3.8   2.2    .9    .5   .0   1.95
.30   Danny Green    SAS   21  .676   21.3   4.5   2.3   5.0   3.6   2.2   .7   1.37
.27   Chris Bosh     Mia   36  .619   14.8   6.6   1.0   2.4    .8    .9   .2    .72
.26   Tiago Splitter SAS   17  .721   18.2   9.0   4.6   3.8   1.3   2.7  1.3   1.51

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.17   Dwyane Wade    Mia   34  .494   14.9   5.2   2.8   3.0   1.7   4.3   .0    .48
.12   Ray Allen      Mia   31  .551   11.0   4.4   2.1   3.2   1.8   2.0   .2    .36
.11   Rashard Lewis  Mia   23  .652   15.0   3.3    .6   3.2    .0    .4   .7    .46
.07   Chris Andersen Mia   18  .382    3.5  13.4    .0   5.3    .8   1.3  1.1    .35
.06  Marco Belinelli SAS   12  .605   15.3   4.2   1.8   1.7    .6   1.8   .0    .52

.06   Matt Bonner    SAS    5  .833    9.5   4.6   6.6   2.4   1.2    .0   .0    .99
-.00   Udonis Haslem Mia    5  .400    4.2   7.2    .0   5.7    .0    .0  1.4   -.01
-.02  Mario Chalmers Mia   23  .431    5.7   2.8   4.5   5.1   1.6   3.5   .3   -.10
-.04   Norris Cole   Mia   17  .381    4.8   3.1   3.7   3.2    .8   2.7   .0   -.26
-.06   Shane Battier Mia    7  .000     .0   1.3   1.0   5.0   1.0   1.1   .0   -.84

shooting: SA .624 - .562 Mia
rebounds: SA 37.8 - 32.2 Mia
turnovers: SA 14.0 - 16.0 Mia

[Mike G]

Congrats also to Kawhi Leonard for his Finals mvp award.
Going 33.4 mpg, that's less than any other winner besides Willis Reed (30.0) in 1970.
His 17.8 ppg are 5th lowest all time.
He was 2nd on the team in scoring, rebounds, and steals; led the Spurs in blocks.
His Finals TS% was .753. His raw FG% (.612) edges Shaq 2000 for highest ever.
With 11/19 from the arc, his eFG% of .724 is surely also the best ever.

[J.E.]

I didn't understand all the talk on TV about how the Heat need to rebuild.

But basically, DWade was terrible

Isn't this essentially your answer? Wade's 32, has had multiple knee injuries/surgeries in his career, only played 54 regular season games this season and his +/- performance this season fell off a cliff