2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs

[mystic]

This is interesting. And while you can't predict the given series based on the to-be-played minutes, you get a different value for the ensuing series.

Not quite sure what you mean, but I used a minute and pace prediction, got the Heat with +8 per 100 poss, the Bobcats with -4 per 100 poss with about 87 pace for +10.5. My line was -13.5, -13.5, +7.6, +7.6 (slight change after the first two games from +10.5 to +10.6) vs. Vegas lines of -9.5, -9, +4.5 and +7; I went 3-1 in that series against Vegas.

The SRS differential for Mia-Cha is about 5 ppg. You give Mia another expected 6 ppg, based on ... ?
- Jefferson averaging 8 fewer mpg, picked up by McRoberts? Everyone else within 3 mpg of RS for Cha
- Wade was full-time, Ray played less, Battier not at all; Haslem and Jones played more than usual.

SRS differential is meaningless given the severe differences in terms of minute distribution. Gary Neal is a -4 player in my metric, for example, I expected him to get 24 mpg ... I had the Heat clearly better than their RS SRS, the Bobcats being worse. Again, look at the minute distribution, then use a reliable player metric and you get a MUCH better impression about the strength of the teams.

[mystic]

Very interesting summer for the Heat. My initial thought is they're going to sign a Pau or Gortat to beef up the starting lineup and go back to big ball. But I wonder if the better move is to go for depth and smaller contracts. Grabbing a handful of Josh McRoberts and Thabo level contracts may be a route to look at. I also think they should use a 2017 1st round pick to dump Haslem's 4.6 mil contract to Phllly or Utah or whatever. Although they desperately need young talent with how limited their window is I think the capspace does more for them

Don't see much of that being likely options unless James+Bosh+Wade are using their ETO and sign for even less money ... Gortat will not agree to take a paycut and the Wizards are basically set to offer him a 5yr contract ... Gasol might get a max offer for 1yr from the Lakers, if they can't get a marquee FA, that is more money in 1 season the Heat will likely be able to offer him in a 4yr contract. McRoberts and Sefolosha haven't received such big contracts in the past, and there is basically no connection to the Heat. Why should they sign for less? The Heat need to find those Diaw, Green, etc. like players, being undervalued by others and can fit into the needed role on the Heat.

[Dr Positivity]

I think there's a solid chance all 3 opt out so they can get long term deals. Wade is obviously the most debateable but if he can get 4 years 55-60 million now, it's better decision than taking 2 years 41.7 mil from the options. Bosh should certainly try to get a major 4-5 year deal now as well though it's unclear how low a deal he'll accept considering he 'll have other significant offers

[mystic]

I think there's a solid chance all 3 opt out so they can get long term deals. Wade is obviously the most debateable but if he can get 4 years 55-60 million now, it's better decision than taking 2 years 41.7 mil from the options. Bosh should certainly try to get a major 4-5 year deal now as well though it's unclear how low a deal he'll accept considering he 'll have other significant offers

Good points. Question would be: Are the Heat willing and able to offer Wade and Bosh the respective necessary longterm deal? They should, if we take into account that the paycut the players took made it possible to create the team, which won 2 championships and went to two more finals. For Wade it is also the last time he can receive such 5yr deal without falling under the over-36 rule. The other question would be (as you mentioned): How much is Bosh willing to give up? Given his age, he may receive a bigger contract in a year or two also. And so far, if the numbers reported are realistic, he hasn't made up for the paycut via endorsements. That could be another factor. Nonetheless, for those 3 players it might make the most sense to use their ETOs now and get new longterm deals.

[Mike G]

Did anyone else notice that the Spurs never pass up an open 3 -- even if they're up 15, and 15 seconds on the shot clock?

[v-zero]

The open three is a gift from the basketball gods. If you have good shooters (the Spurs averaged 40% on threes all year) then a possession involving an open three attempt is worth about 1.5 points on average...which we can all agree is huge.

[Mike G]

There have been 55 cases of a team in the Finals making at least 8 threes in a game, while hitting 40% or better from the arc.
The first was in 1990 -- by the Pistons, in the only game they lost vs the Blazers.
ttp://bkref.com/tiny/29xVp
Since then, there have been 7 years with zero cases, most recently in 2004.
This year, there were 9 occurrences -- by both teams, in every game, until the finale.

Code: Select all

G    Mia     SAS
1   12-29   13-25
2    8-19   12-26
3   10-21    9-20
4    9-22    9-21
5    7-25   12-26
%    .397    .466

Miami's .397 is equivalent to .595 on 2FG. Spurs' eFG% from the arc was .699
On non-threes -- 2FG and FT -- Mia had TS% of .561, SA .610
I don't recall many fouled-beyond-the-arc plays, but those would increase the disparity some.

Before 2011, there are 30 Finals team-G in the list.
In the 4-year Heat era, there have been another 25.
Teams on the list had W-L of 35-20.