Yr. to yr. usage change study?
Yr. to yr. usage change study?
Has anyone done a large scale study of players who changed their usage by 15, 20, 25 percent or more up or down from one year to the next to see what the average change and range of change is for such things as eFG%, TS%, turnover %, offensive rating, offensive, defensive and overall RAPM and team win % on the court? I don't recall seeing a study of large movers as a distinct group. And how these things trend by position or relative size of initial offensive role? And how team metrics trend depending on the specific pairing of who goes up and who goes down? I'd think that could be interesting if there was time available to invest in the analysis.
Re: Yr. to yr. usage change study?
Also interested...i might regress deltaUsage against deltaORAPM
Re: Yr. to yr. usage change study?
This is definitely not a large scale study... but it is Friday night. I sorted out players who played over 2000 minutes with a usage over 20% this season and looked at how their usage and a few other stats changed from last season. I found 9 young guys whose usage increased by 3 to 7 points. Of course more data would be appropriate even if it had to be a multi-year study to get enough candidates but I figured I'd start here and see what it says.
The average usage rate increase was about 4.5 %points. Offensive Rating went up by 2/3rds of 1 point on average (hurt by Hickson). TS% was essentially unchanged (down .003). Offensive RAPM was up by an average of about +0.8.
Rose had the biggest increase in his ORAPM estimate (+2.8) followed by Eric Gordon (+1.9). Westbrook had the largest decline in his estimate (-1.9) followed by Aldridge (-0.9). Westbrook had the biggest increase in TS% but went to the opposite extreme on estimated team impact. A case where that boxscore stat really told a different story than the holistic measure.
Hickson had the largest usage increase (+6.6 %pts) and by far the worst TS% change (-.077). He somehow still increased on ORAPM estimate but from a very poor -3.3 to -2.1.
Overall offensive Rating and ORAPM were fairly close in just 2 cases and very different in 5.
The correlation between change in usage and change in ORAPM was near zero (but the sample is too small to make much of that or anything really).
How much of the change in the offensive stats is due to the change in usage and how much is due to development of these young guys is an open question. It could examined in various ways, vs. average improvement among young players and compared to examples of large usage changes by mature players. With more time & effort.
The average usage rate increase was about 4.5 %points. Offensive Rating went up by 2/3rds of 1 point on average (hurt by Hickson). TS% was essentially unchanged (down .003). Offensive RAPM was up by an average of about +0.8.
Rose had the biggest increase in his ORAPM estimate (+2.8) followed by Eric Gordon (+1.9). Westbrook had the largest decline in his estimate (-1.9) followed by Aldridge (-0.9). Westbrook had the biggest increase in TS% but went to the opposite extreme on estimated team impact. A case where that boxscore stat really told a different story than the holistic measure.
Hickson had the largest usage increase (+6.6 %pts) and by far the worst TS% change (-.077). He somehow still increased on ORAPM estimate but from a very poor -3.3 to -2.1.
Overall offensive Rating and ORAPM were fairly close in just 2 cases and very different in 5.
The correlation between change in usage and change in ORAPM was near zero (but the sample is too small to make much of that or anything really).
How much of the change in the offensive stats is due to the change in usage and how much is due to development of these young guys is an open question. It could examined in various ways, vs. average improvement among young players and compared to examples of large usage changes by mature players. With more time & effort.