Estimating Replacement Level: Sabermetrics perspective

[schtevie]

My long-stated belief is that there is no particular utility in attempting to establish a replacement player value benchmark, but I think that this discussion has changed my mind. Still not as it relates to the value of VORPiness; rather, establishing a benchmark of the value of those under minimum contract offers seems to offer insight into the insightfulness of NBA franchises.

Am I the only person struck by the apparent implication of Daniel's "preseason" estimate of -1.95 and talkingpractice's -1.78? Isn't the suggestion that players, freely available from the "discard pile" at minimum salary and taken in the preseason, have an average productivity that is roughly equivalent to the 9th best player on the average roster?

I looked a bit closer at data for 2012-13 (87 players) and linked it up to Jeremias' xRAPM estimates, and got a total (pre- and in-season) average of -2.2. (Chris Andersen was not included, as he was an extreme outlier.) So, this is in line with Daniel's estimates from the 2009 to 2013 sample.

But interestingly, in the year chosen, the "ins" beat the "pres", -1.9 to -2.3. And if this is borne out in the larger sample, it offers possible separate comment on the perceptivity of the average NBA front office.

We talk about the draft being largely an exercise in dart throwing, but is it possible that the same is true for veterans available on minimum salary after multiple years of toil in the Association? With perceptions of value available in the preseason no more acute than what's in the midseason leftover pile?

Then finally, another perhaps interesting "split" is that in 2013, the "pres" that were centers and forwards were superior to their counterpart "ins", but the opposite was true with guards. To be checked...

Interesting stuff.

[Statman]

My long-stated belief is that there is no particular utility in attempting to establish a replacement player value benchmark, but I think that this discussion has changed my mind. Still not as it relates to the value of VORPiness; rather, establishing a benchmark of the value of those under minimum contract offers seems to offer insight into the insightfulness of NBA franchises.

To me it seems teams & coaches fall prey to the perceived "intangible" value of many around RP level vets - and allow themselves to be tied to those vets with guaranteed contracts above or way above their true value. Too many young players who could EASILY be molded into at least RP in very short order at a bargain price get bypassed.

I'm a Mavs fan - and on the radio and print there was all this talk about what vet big man can the Mavs get to sign for very little. As far as I am concerned - I just wanted them to give a roster spot to younger guys they have already in summer league that my metrics project that may really have an actual "average" player or better upside - Greg Smith and Javon McCrea. But, alas one or both probably won't be on the roster in favor for some RP (or worse) vet on a guaranteed 1 or 2 year contract. Smith and McCrea hopefully will get their shot to Brandon Wright or Dejuan Blair it for some team someday.

[Mike G]

Did you just verb those guys?

[Statman]

Did you just verb those guys?

Yes, yes I did.