Eurobasket 2011

Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
J.E.
Posts: 852
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:28 am

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by J.E. »

Bobbofitos wrote:Some reason I thought they won. Oh well!
I thought the same thing. Weird
This is blind to the fact all games have been played IN Lithuania, right? What if you added a basic home court modifier, how much does that affect Lithuania's power ranking? (I suppose we could argue it's a flat X points, so... simply take that away!)
All remaining games are still gonna be played in Lithuania, so I don't care about Lithuanias' "real strength". I'm fine with having an estimate how they perform at home. To get a good homecourt estimate you'd have to compare this year's Lithiuanias ratings to the one they had in WC, or Turkeys rating from the WC to the one they have now
It seems bizarre to slate Turkey ahead of France
One big reason for that is their performance against Spain. Turkey won and France lost by 25. The algorithm doesn't know that PGasol didn't play against Turkey and Parker/Noah didn't play against Spain.

I bet on Greece: 2$
Bobbofitos
Posts: 306
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:40 am
Location: Cambridge, MA
Contact:

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by Bobbofitos »

J.E. wrote: I bet on Greece: 2$
Accepted! To be paid out if you decide to come to another Sloan Conference. hah.
Bobbofitos
Posts: 306
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:40 am
Location: Cambridge, MA
Contact:

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by Bobbofitos »

Hmm, interesting spammer.

Lithuania-Macedonia was the best game of the tournament. Hope you guys had a chance to watch it.
J.E.
Posts: 852
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:28 am

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by J.E. »

Your money is almost mine, Bobbofittos! I used half of my betting money to bribe the refs. Go hellas!
Bobbofitos
Posts: 306
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:40 am
Location: Cambridge, MA
Contact:

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by Bobbofitos »

J.E. wrote:Your money is almost mine, Bobbofittos! I used half of my betting money to bribe the refs. Go hellas!
Looks like half wasn't enough ;)
J.E.
Posts: 852
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:28 am

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by J.E. »

Looks like half wasn't enough
things looked so pretty at the 5 minute mark :/

Code: Select all

Spain	10.86
Russia	7.26
Lithuania	6.76
France	5.68
Turkey	4.38
FYROM	2.78
Greece	2.64
Germany	2.48
Slovenia	1.4
Finland	0.92
Montenegro	0.9
Georgia	0.8
Ukraine	0.1
Croatia	-1.04
Serbia	-1.34
Poland	-1.44
Italy	-2.16
Bosnia	-2.4
Latvia	-2.46
GreatBritain	-3.94
Bulgaria	-4.16
Bosnia-Herzegov.	-4.86
Israel	-7.12
Belgium	-7.24
Portugal	-8.78
Spain over Macedonia and Russia over France. Mozgov had some good dunks last night and seems to be playing well. Kirilenko seems all over the place when he's playing, racking up lots of steals and blocks
Bobbofitos
Posts: 306
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:40 am
Location: Cambridge, MA
Contact:

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by Bobbofitos »

J.E. wrote:
Looks like half wasn't enough
things looked so pretty at the 5 minute mark :/

Code: Select all

Spain	10.86
Russia	7.26
Lithuania	6.76
France	5.68
Turkey	4.38
FYROM	2.78
Greece	2.64
Germany	2.48
Slovenia	1.4
Finland	0.92
Montenegro	0.9
Georgia	0.8
Ukraine	0.1
Croatia	-1.04
Serbia	-1.34
Poland	-1.44
Italy	-2.16
Bosnia	-2.4
Latvia	-2.46
GreatBritain	-3.94
Bulgaria	-4.16
Bosnia-Herzegov.	-4.86
Israel	-7.12
Belgium	-7.24
Portugal	-8.78
Spain over Macedonia and Russia over France. Mozgov had some good dunks last night and seems to be playing well. Kirilenko seems all over the place when he's playing, racking up lots of steals and blocks
Kirilenko has looked very very good. He controlled the game yesterday vs Serbia. That said I expect France to roll. Look for Spain v France to meet in the finals.

McCaleb has played outstandingly for Macedonia - who is he?
bchaikin
Posts: 307
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 2:09 am

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by bchaikin »

McCaleb has played outstandingly for Macedonia - who is he?

bo mccalebb was one of the top scorers in div I college basketball in 06-07 and 07-08, scoring 24.1 pts/g those 2 years for the university of new orleans...
Statman
Posts: 548
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:29 pm
Location: Arlington, Texas
Contact:

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by Statman »

bchaikin wrote:McCaleb has played outstandingly for Macedonia - who is he?

bo mccalebb was one of the top scorers in div I college basketball in 06-07 and 07-08, scoring 24.1 pts/g those 2 years for the university of new orleans...
My ratings (looking at his stats, team strength/pace/SoS, & his PT) had him as the 21st best player in the entire nation in 2008 in college - which is quite impressive from a non-major. Only 2 players from small schools were definitely better (according to my ratings) than him that season - Stephen Curry (#3 in the nation) & Courtney Lee (#7 in the nation). Good player.
J.E.
Posts: 852
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:28 am

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by J.E. »

Code: Select all

Spain	10.38
Lithuania	6.96
Russia	6.74
France	6.16
Turkey	4.36
FYROM	3.32
..
Removing the Spain vs. France game because it was played without Parker, and Noah and removing Turkey vs Spain because PGasol didn't play leads to:

Code: Select all

France	8.38
Spain	8.16
Lithuania	6.9
Russia	6.9
Turkey	4.32
FYROM	3.18
..
Whoops! Still, for the last time in this tournament I would bet against France (I have been wrong about them about 3 times though!).
Bobbofitos: want to bet? 2$?

Russia should beat FYROM in the game for 3rd place
Bobbofitos
Posts: 306
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:40 am
Location: Cambridge, MA
Contact:

Re: Eurobasket 2011

Post by Bobbofitos »

J.E. wrote: Whoops! Still, for the last time in this tournament I would bet against France (I have been wrong about them about 3 times though!).
Bobbofitos: want to bet? 2$?

Russia should beat FYROM in the game for 3rd place
Looks like I saw this too late to give you a chance for your double-or-nothing ;)

Did you do a final all-encompassing tournament SRS?
Post Reply