Early check on rookie projections

[Crow]

Draft projections from Dan Dickey http://hoopsnerd.com/?paged=3, vjl, I assume Pelton, BR?, who else?
Another opportunity to educate, market, analyze, advance...

[Crow]

I'll try to get around to commenting further on this later. For now here is a spreadsheet of draft rankings https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit?pli=1

[AJbaskets]

One issue looking at rookie performance and draft projections is that many models, including mine and Vashro's are not built to project rookie year. Mine is for year's 3 and 4 primarily. Though I do have a complete first four year version in the works.

Still this is looking like my worst OOS year to date (of the 3 so far).

[Statman]

I'll try to get around to commenting further on this later. For now here is a spreadsheet of draft rankings https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit?pli=1

For the 30 players drafted, correlations between draft pick and the ratings done by the 7 analysts on that spreadsheet:

erroneous numbers deleted- crow

Sorry - my brain isn't wrapping around what this is telling me. Is this a correlation between projection ranking & where the player actually was drafted? Mine was the best correlation? That would be shocking - since I don't use ANY height data, combine data, ranking as a HS prospect, & other such things (like seeing where it appears people are projecting draft position & adjusting numbers accordingly - although I don't think any did this here) some of the other models use to more mimic an NBA draft.

My work is in no way attempting to mimic a draft, but attempting to project future NBA value based on college performance (& the type of performance) relative to age. I would suspect my projections would correlate the worst to actual draft position (& hopefully, years down the road, best to actual NBA performance). I must be mis-reading this - mine have to be the worst correlation to actual draft position.

[Statman]

One issue looking at rookie performance and draft projections is that many models, including mine and Vashro's are not built to project rookie year. Mine is for year's 3 and 4 primarily. Though I do have a complete first four year version in the works.

Still this is looking like my worst OOS year to date (of the 3 so far).

Yeah, mine is built to do both first year & career. One could easily see how well mine projected the rookie season relative to actually performance - but the same thing couldn't be done to some of these other models. My projections had Shabazz Napier as the best bet to be rookie of the year (before the draft) - but he ranked 16th in career WAR projections (due mainly to age & low 2pt made rate projections through the years, becoming a role player w/ less pt fairly early in his NBA career).

[Crow]

Mike's correlation of ranking to draft pick is worth knowing. Yeah correction of draft ranking to later performance is my main interest too but I intend to do the early check just to see where things stand.

[Mike G]

Fellas, I don't know what happened. Trying to cook chili and do spreadsheets at the same time. Here are the correlations (minus sign removed) between draft pick and 7 analysts/systems' ratings:

Code: Select all

.889   Jessie Fischer SMO
.665   Layne Vashro EWP
.656   Kevin Pelton WARP
.647   Andrew Johnson PAWS
.626   masseffectlenk GREED
.625   Dan Dickey WAR
.402   Mathketball

Those other numbers were random. I'm going to delete my original post in here, and you may please consider doing the same.

[Statman]

Fellas, I don't know what happened. Trying to cook chili and do spreadsheets at the same time. Here are the correlations (minus sign removed) between draft pick and 7 analysts/systems' ratings:

Code: Select all

.889   Jessie Fischer SMO
.665   Layne Vashro EWP
.656   Kevin Pelton WARP
.647   Andrew Johnson PAWS
.626   masseffectlenk GREED
.625   Dan Dickey WAR
.402   Mathketball

Those other numbers were random. I'm going to delete my original post in here, and you may please consider doing the same.

OK, that makes much more sense to me. Thanks Mike for clearing that up.

[Crow]

Correlation of ranking to early performance according to BPM for 18 domestic 1st round picks with enough time to rate (revised):

Actual Pick 0.15

Equal Weighted Overall Average -0.13

Kevin Pelton's WARP Model (@kpelton) 0.003
Andrew Johnson's PAWS Model (@countingbaskets) -0.08
Dan Dickey's WAR Model (@Hoops_Nerd) 0.16
Layne Vashro's EWP Model (@VJL_bball) -0.24
Jessie Fischer's SMO Model (Rank not proj. #s) (@jessiefischer33) -.09
(@masseffectlenk)'s GREED Model -0.24
Mathketball's Model -0.25


With almost everyone negative on BPM, I got a bit fuzzy interpreting the correlations.

I think Dan has the lead but all the correlations are low, so far.

[Crow]

Check back in 3 months, sure. 2-3 yrs, better.

[Statman]

Check back in 3 months, sure. 2-3 yrs, better.

Agreed.

If you hadn't noticed Crow - this excel upload can be sorted by year.

http://hoopsnerd.com/wp-content/uploads ... pload.xlsx

Only Napier projected to be an above average player in terms of production (HN/48 101, league average 100) AND also project decent best case scenerio minutes as a rookie. No draftee projected all that well in terms of production as a rookie: Parker 88 Hn/48, Randle 89, Wiggins 68 (well below replacement level of 80). No projected superstars. There just wasn't a rookie who looked like they'd set the world on fire right away.

Anyway, the rookie year projected WAR ranks from the spreadsheet above:

Shabazz Napier
Jarnell Stokes
Javon McCrea
Marcus Smart
Spencer Dinwiddie
Jordan Adams
T.J. Warren
K.J. McDaniels

None are impressive, the rest are very meh (under 2.5 projected optimum WAR). McCrea wasn't even drafted - & he's in Germany.

Jabari Parker didn't project to be an above average NBA'er until 2017 (maxing out at 120 HN/48 in 2021). Wiggins maxes out at 98 in 2022- my model wasn't at all impressed by his one year of college.

Projecting good best case scenario playing time matters - it shows a lack of bad statistical deficiencies. While Wiggins projected 17th among draftees in career WAR (college production didn't translate all that well) - he projected 6th in career minutes (behind Parker, Adams, Smart, Payton, & Stokes). That means something - I'm not sure what until I run ALL the past college projections.

McDermott broke the model at the other end in terms of projected minutes with his unfathomably low Stl/BK rates.

I'm re-tweaking the projected minutes as we speak, making it smoother - normally more of a bell curve as a career continues - less harsh on the extremes. I'll be running all the career projections year by year like the ones above for every rookie, NBAer, D Leaguer & college player (well, all those that project above replacement level at some point in an NBA career) sometime after I start the college player ratings - probably early January. The projections will use weighted '12,'14, & 15 data from NBA, D-L, & college.

[Crow]

Thanks for the guidance. It appears that draft picks on average don't become valuable in terms of production compared to rest of league until their much more expensive second contract. Maybe alright if the "plan" is long. 3-4 years for the best plans, longer for the rest. I haven't measured precisely but 5 year waves of rise then 5 years of stall and fall are pretty common, I think.

[Statman]

Thanks for the guidance. It appears that draft picks on average don't become valuable in terms of production compared to rest of league until their much more expensive second contract. May off if the "plan" is long. 3-4 years for the best plans, longer for the rest. I haven't measured precisely but 5 year waves of rise then 5 years of stall and fall are pretty common, I think.

This is ESPECIALLY true for very young draft picks - outside of the occasional superstar who is "can't miss" (LeBron, Anthony Davis). Of course, they aren't superstars as rookies either, but they are far from the usual 1st year mediocrity. Jabari Parker & Andrew Wiggins weren't anywhere close to many past college freshmen superstars in terms of the projections.

"Old" rookies - ie Shabazz Napier - are usually decent out the chute, hit their prime right when it's time for a new contract in 3 years, & (theoretically) after that it's all slowly downhill.

I NEVER understood why teams draft 19/20 year old not very productive but "look" so good running up & down the court prospects (Zach Lavine - Andrew Wiggins as an extreme example being #1 overall), spend a few years trying to develop them while they generally kinda suck - & then have some other team reap the benefits (if benefits are ever gonna be reaped) of a finally decently developed NBA player years later. It seems that the drafting team always ends up holding the bag there.

[Crow]

Is this because teams don't give much weight to one metrics, think they will beat the odds or just can't make anything better work? The relatively cheap wages are a powerful drug... and lead to waste elsewhere.

A young draft pick might pay off well for longer on second contract. Would be good to see perf. v. Sal charts over time for different draft pick ages with attention to who stays with same team vs. moves. Has that been done before?

[nbacouchside]

Here were my numbers projecting rookie performance by RPM going into this season:

Code: Select all

╔════════════════════╦═══════╦═══════╦═══════╗
║                    ║ ORPM  ║ DRPM  ║  RPM  ║
╠════════════════════╬═══════╬═══════╬═══════╣
║ Nerlens Noel       ║ -1.37 ║ 1.65  ║ 0.29  ║
║ Khem Birch         ║ -0.98 ║ 0.64  ║ -0.34 ║
║ Mitch McGary       ║ -1.72 ║ 1.10  ║ -0.62 ║
║ Jarnell Stokes     ║ -0.38 ║ -0.39 ║ -0.77 ║
║ Kyle Anderson      ║ -0.55 ║ -0.31 ║ -0.86 ║
║ Javon Mcrea        ║ -1.00 ║ 0.04  ║ -0.96 ║
║ Joel Embiid        ║ -1.81 ║ 0.76  ║ -1.05 ║
║ Jordan Adams       ║ -0.57 ║ -0.90 ║ -1.48 ║
║ Elfrid Payton      ║ -0.57 ║ -0.94 ║ -1.50 ║
║ Marcus Smart       ║ -0.82 ║ -0.69 ║ -1.51 ║
║ Aaron Gordon       ║ -0.99 ║ -0.52 ║ -1.52 ║
║ Tyler Ennis        ║ -0.41 ║ -1.15 ║ -1.56 ║
║ Julius Randle      ║ -0.96 ║ -0.77 ║ -1.73 ║
║ Noah Vonleh        ║ -1.46 ║ -0.30 ║ -1.76 ║
║ K.J. McDaniels     ║ -1.28 ║ -0.58 ║ -1.86 ║
║ Jabari Parker      ║ -0.98 ║ -0.91 ║ -1.89 ║
║ Nikola Mirotic     ║ -1.20 ║ -1.00 ║ -2.10 ║
║ Jerami Grant       ║ -1.15 ║ -1.01 ║ -2.17 ║
║ James McAdoo       ║ -1.72 ║ -0.68 ║ -2.41 ║
║ Spencer Dinwiddie  ║ -0.78 ║ -1.68 ║ -2.46 ║
║ Patric Young       ║ -1.85 ║ -0.61 ║ -2.46 ║
║ T.J. Warren        ║ -1.14 ║ -1.33 ║ -2.47 ║
║ Shabazz Napier     ║ -0.87 ║ -1.62 ║ -2.49 ║
║ Josh Huestis       ║ -1.72 ║ -0.85 ║ -2.57 ║
║ Aaron Craft        ║ -1.62 ║ -0.96 ║ -2.58 ║
║ Gary Harris        ║ -0.92 ║ -1.68 ║ -2.60 ║
║ Alex Kirk          ║ -2.17 ║ -0.47 ║ -2.63 ║
║ Andrew Wiggins     ║ -1.34 ║ -1.37 ║ -2.71 ║
║ Shayne Whittington ║ -1.95 ║ -0.82 ║ -2.77 ║
║ DeAndre Kane       ║ -1.29 ║ -1.51 ║ -2.80 ║
║ Lamar Patterson    ║ -1.22 ║ -1.60 ║ -2.82 ║
║ Dwight Powell      ║ -2.26 ║ -0.59 ║ -2.86 ║
║ Alec Brown         ║ -2.14 ║ -0.74 ║ -2.87 ║
║ Devyn Marble       ║ -1.33 ║ -1.57 ║ -2.90 ║
║ Russ Smith         ║ -1.13 ║ -1.80 ║ -2.93 ║
║ Cameron Bairstow   ║ -1.52 ║ -1.47 ║ -2.99 ║
║ Glenn Robinson     ║ -1.23 ║ -1.78 ║ -3.01 ║
║ Mike Moser         ║ -2.11 ║ -0.92 ║ -3.03 ║
║ Bryce Cotton       ║ -0.41 ║ -2.73 ║ -3.14 ║
║ Johnny O'Bryant    ║ -1.95 ║ -1.25 ║ -3.19 ║
║ Nik Stauskas       ║ -0.72 ║ -2.54 ║ -3.25 ║
║ Markel Brown       ║ -1.27 ║ -2.01 ║ -3.28 ║
║ Nick Johnson       ║ -1.22 ║ -2.08 ║ -3.30 ║
║ Zach LaVine        ║ -1.48 ║ -1.85 ║ -3.34 ║
║ Niels Giffey       ║ -1.99 ║ -1.42 ║ -3.41 ║
║ Xavier Thames      ║ -1.33 ║ -2.13 ║ -3.46 ║
║ Semaj Christon     ║ -1.33 ║ -2.23 ║ -3.57 ║
║ James Young        ║ -1.45 ║ -2.12 ║ -3.57 ║
║ DeAndre Daniels    ║ -2.24 ║ -1.33 ║ -3.58 ║
║ Adreian Payne      ║ -2.12 ║ -1.51 ║ -3.63 ║
║ Doug McDermott     ║ -0.87 ║ -2.87 ║ -3.74 ║
║ Jordan Clarkson    ║ -1.59 ║ -2.22 ║ -3.80 ║
║ Cleanthony Early   ║ -2.01 ║ -1.81 ║ -3.82 ║
║ Joe Harris         ║ -1.89 ║ -1.94 ║ -3.84 ║
║ C.J. Wilcox        ║ -1.68 ║ -2.20 ║ -3.87 ║
║ Rodney Hood        ║ -1.75 ║ -2.20 ║ -3.95 ║
║ Jordan McRae       ║ -1.84 ║ -2.32 ║ -4.16 ║
╚════════════════════╩═══════╩═══════╩═══════╝

Same numbers were posted to my Twitter feed here (https://twitter.com/NBAcouchside/status ... 9454519297) back in August. I added Mirotic in using a really rough method (using his per-40 stats from Euro as NCAA equivalent and just bumping his SOS credit way up). I haven't taken the time to do Euro translations really at all, so that was my best guess at him. Looks like it was a bit too conservative on the SOS bump so far.