Predictions 2014-2015

[Mike G]

Posting because in just 4 days, everyone's errors have shrunk (relative to the b-r.com Forecast) by quite a bit.
Absolute error today (Jan 19), as of Jan. 15, and relative to last season's Pythagorean.

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error  proj   1-15  -14py      error  proj   1-15  -14py
AJb1   6.08   6.42   2.53      ncs    7.25   7.64   1.36
crow   6.15   6.46   2.46      itca   7.40   7.78   1.21
myst   6.25   6.71   2.36      eW     7.41   7.63   1.21
atc    6.46   6.87   2.15      AJb2   7.49   7.67   1.13
HDon   6.47   7.04   2.15      DrP    7.49   7.82   1.12
bbs    6.57   7.06   2.04      snd1   7.77   8.19    .84
v-0    6.65   6.98   1.97      fpli   7.82   8.18    .79
bobb   7.11   7.43   1.51      14py   8.61   8.90    .0

Note that the 2013-14 Pyth "prediction" improved by 0.29 in the interval. A few of us improved by less than that.
AJb1 also leads (by .03) in RMSE.

[Crow]

If not too much trouble a chart showing everyone's team by team win predictions vs the different predicted win estimates (by method and blended) would be great as we hit the half way point.

[AcrossTheCourt]

Here's a better projection, I think:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/intr ... yoff-odds/

One problem is that it'll help anyone who uses RPM, but at least it's not a "dumb" rating system that doesn't understand OKC has Durant back.

[Mike G]

Is 26 mpg (x82) for Kobe more optimistic than most are guessing?
His (arbitrary) 1.33 eW/484 would be lowest since his 2nd season (when he also went 26 mpg).

I bet everything I have on Kobe that he will play more than 26 mpg. I don't have to look at any statistics or metrics to see that.

Kobe certainly started out with more minutes.

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mo.     G     MPG    Min   dnp   tG    tMin    tMPG
O-Nov  17    36.0    612    0    17     612    36.0
Dec    12    34.2    410    3    32    1022    32.0
Jan     6    30.9    185    6    44    1208    27.5

Just 3 more DNP and he'll have dropped below 26 mpg for the season.

Yet, even at 27.5 mpg to date from Kobe, the Lakes are well worse than I predicted. Returning players, this season on the left, last year on the right:

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eW+    per36 rates    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  '14  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.25   Ronnie Price   .465    7.8   2.6   5.3    .30  Orl .376    5.8   4.0   5.5   .16
.09  Wayne Ellington .537   12.8   4.9   1.9    .53  Dal .551   13.3   3.8   1.7   .47
.07   Wesley Johnson .531   11.3   4.6   1.9    .46      .518   11.0   5.1   1.9   .43
-.01  Nick Young     .528   20.3   3.4   1.3    .97      .555   22.1   2.9   1.6   .97
-.11  Ed Davis       .584   11.9  10.4   1.4    .99  Mem .534   14.8  10.7    .9  1.04
-.16  Xavier Henry   .400    6.8   1.6   1.1   -.33      .498   15.5   3.9   1.8   .56

-.19  Robert Sacre   .449    8.2   6.6   1.3    .32      .504   10.5   7.3   1.5   .50
-.22  Ryan Kelly     .481    7.7   6.8   1.2    .12      .538   12.6   5.3   2.3   .61
-.30  Jeremy Lin     .532   14.3   3.7   5.7    .82  Hou .559   17.1   3.4   5.7   .95
-.32  Jordan Hill    .513   15.2  10.1   1.7   1.14      .569   16.8  11.4   1.2  1.27
-.59  Carlos Boozer  .530   17.1   9.9   1.7   1.23  Chi .484   20.4  11.7   2.1  1.50
-.76  Kobe Bryant    .469   22.0   5.9   5.4   1.51      .559   26.6   5.3   5.6  1.82

Their 3 best players also lead them in declines. That's Kobe's 2013 line, and his e484 for this year is better than my prediction.
Jordan Hill is 27; minutes up from 20 to 28, all other numbers down.
J Lin at 26 also with dropoffs across the board.
R Kelly, 23, almost disappears in his 2nd season.
25 yo Sacre has gone from passable to not really.
...
Boozer, 33, has not declined according to BPM and WS/48; PER says he's up (14.4 to 16.3).
Still he's no Pau, nor even the Pau of last year.

[sndesai1]

sorry for the lack of updates...been having some hdd issues




added in the 2 other projections requested...arturo's isn't doing too well (though who am i to talk? lol) but the other one is actually right near the top
the "average" entry is creeping up
the vegas entry isn't doing so hot at the moment, but it's not totally out of the game

[Crow]

Thank you.

[permaximum]

Is 26 mpg (x82) for Kobe more optimistic than most are guessing?
His (arbitrary) 1.33 eW/484 would be lowest since his 2nd season (when he also went 26 mpg).

I bet everything I have on Kobe that he will play more than 26 mpg. I don't have to look at any statistics or metrics to see that.

Kobe certainly started out with more minutes.

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mo.     G     MPG    Min   dnp   tG    tMin    tMPG
O-Nov  17    36.0    612    0    17     612    36.0
Dec    12    34.2    410    3    32    1022    32.0
Jan     6    30.9    185    6    44    1208    27.5

Just 3 more DNP and he'll have dropped below 26 mpg for the season.

Yet, even at 27.5 mpg to date from Kobe, the Lakes are well worse than I predicted.

There was a misunderstanding on my part. I thought you meant the usual MPG. In this case I would bet everything against it. The sitiuation with these kind of guys they rather sit instead of playing 20-25 minutes.

BTW if Kobe even plays the next season his career decline will be one of the soft ones. He's played only 1284 minutes in his decline so far and I don't think that number wil surpass 3000.

[Mike G]

As requested by Crow, here are teams ranked by how much "we" have underestimated them (first column); predictions sorted (left to right) by absolute error (bottom row).

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avEr   tm   14py AJb1 crow HDon myst  atc  bbs  v-0  ncs itca  eW  DrP bobb fpli AJb2 snd1
17.8   Atl   22   17   19   18   18   20   20   16   20   16   18   17   21   18   18   16
16.8   Mil   23   13   18   23   16   18   18   17   18   12   16    7   18   21   14   20
10.6   GSW   11   11    9    6   11   11    8   17    7    9   19   10   10    9   16    9
6.0    Was    6    5    4    4    6    9    4    8    3    9    3   10   12    2    9    5
5.5    Bos    6    3    7    5    5    7    6    5    4    3    1   15    9   13    2    9

5.5    Por    2    4    6    6    9    1    8   10    6    3    6    4    3    3    9    9
5.5    Tor    3    6    6    3    6    4    6    4    5    8    7    8    1    5    7    8
5.1    Mem    9    4    4    5    6    7    2   11    4    8   11    2    9    3    8    3
5.1    NOP   10    7    5    8    5    3    4    4    8    8    1    6    8    2    6   11
4.6    Uta   10    3    4    5    3    6    3    0    9    6    0    3    5   12    3   11

3.6    Hou    0    1    4    4    6    4    6    6    3    1    8    0    2    2    4    3
3.5    Sac    1    9    3    5    3    3    4    1    9    3    2    6    3    7    1    5
1.2    Orl    1    4    1    2    3    1    0    0    3    9    0    9    5    6    1    0
0.6    LAL    0    1    1    1    2    1    5    6    6    7    9    5    1    0    6    2
0.5    Chi    4    5    1    4    0    5    3    2    1    5    8    0    1    7   11    3

avEr   tm   14py AJb1 crow HDon myst  atc  bbs  v-0  ncs itca  eW  DrP bobb fpli AJb2 snd1
0.3    Phl    0    2    2    0    2    1    3    0    1    3    4    3    3    2    0    2
-.2    Dal    4    1    1    3    2    2    3    2    7    3    8    1    8    5    2    2
-.3    Det    2    3    1    3    2    2    4    3    4    7    4    7    1    5    9    3
-1.5   Phx    4    1    2    1    2    5    4    0    1    8    2    6    9    2    2    1
-3.1   LAC    4    1    1    2    0    2    2    5    3    8    6    5    7    6    1    1

-3.3   Den    1    1    5    1    1    7    3    5    4    7    7   11    8    3    8    1
-4.1   Brk    6    1    8    3    6    0    4    7    4    6    1    6    1    7    5   12
-5.0   Ind   21   10    4    1    5    2    8    2    8    1    2    9    7    5    6    8
-5.1   Cha    5    2    7    7    5    4    4   12    2   10    8    3   10    9    1    2
-7.3   SAS   11    2    7   10    5    8    6    5    9    9    6   12    4   13    7   11

-8.0   Mia   17   14   11    9   10    7    9    3   13    4    0   15    3    6    4   15
-11.1  Okl   14    8    7   14   10   11   12    9   13   11   13   12    8   13   15   14
-12.8  Cle   14   10   11   14   12   14   14   14   13    8   15    9   19   14   16   10
-14.5  NYK   19   12   14    4   14   15   11   15   10   17   18   19   18   16   20   16
-15.9  Min   31   19   14   22   20   14   18   15   20   13   20    5   11   11   18   21

0.01   avg  8.7  5.9  6.1  6.3  6.4  6.5  6.6  6.9  7.2  7.2  7.4  7.4  7.4  7.5  7.5  7.7
avEr   tm  14py  AJb1 crow HDon myst atc  bbs  v-0  ncs  itca  eW  DrP bobb fpli AJb2 snd1

Errors are relative to:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi

[Crow]

Thanks Mike.

[Mike G]

I don't know what it's called to average the square roots of (absolute) error, and then square that number -- it's the opposite effect of RMSE-ing them -- but the upshot is interesting:

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(avg sqrt)^2 14py     (avg sqrt)^2  14py
AJb1   4.8   1.89      ncs    6.0   .73
HDon   4.9   1.76      bobb   6.0   .71
crow   5.0   1.66      snd1   6.3   .38
myst   5.3   1.39      fpli   6.3   .36
atc    5.4   1.27      DrP    6.4   .31
bbs    5.8    .93      itca   6.5   .22
v-0    5.9    .83      14py   6.7   .00
eW     5.9    .78      AJb2   6.7  -.02

This is at about 59% of the season.
AJ has the lead, and he's also worse than "last year's pythagorean".
Call it SRME. Instead of exaggerating big misses, it minimizes them. Effectively giving more credit for direct hits.

[Mike G]

The Bucks are projecting from 10 (Dr.Pos) to 26 games better than our guesses. Avg error = 19. How did we get them so wrong? They don't have a lot of new guys, and nobody who was expected to be an impact player.

On the left of the name are my guesses at their minutes this year, last year's rates and eWins/484, and subsequent expected eW.
On the right are this year's rates and mpg, and eWins projected to 82 games (after 47 so far).

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mpg? Eff%  Sco  Reb Ast  Stl  e484   eW?     per36    Min   Eff%  Sco  Reb Ast  Stl   e484   e82
26   .515   20   4   5   1.0  1.14   5.0    Knight     32   .549   22   5   6   1.9   1.53   8.3
16   .506   10   7   2   1.1   .41   1.1 Antetokounmpo 29   .541   16   8   3   1.1   1.11   5.4
20   .512   17   3   3    .7   .59   2.0     Mayo      24   .524   18   4   4   1.0   1.01   4.2
26   .537   15   5   2   1.2   .66   2.9  Middleton    24   .565   16   6   2   2.0   1.00   4.1
10   .537   11   3   2    .9   .30    .5    Dudley     23   .606   14   5   2   1.4    .78   3.0

14   .493   11  10   3   1.2   .78   1.9   Pachulia    21   .490   13  10   4   1.4   1.06   3.7
16   .493   15   3   4   1.3   .67   1.8    Bayless    21   .558   15   4   5   1.3    .82   2.9
20                             .91   3.1    Parker     16   .520   16   7   2   1.5    .96   2.6
18   .470   11  11   1   1.1   .82   2.5    Sanders    12   .500   13  11   1   1.6   1.14   2.4
22   .535   16  10   2    .8  1.16   4.3    Henson     11   .599   16   9   2    .6   1.26   2.4

20   .480   15   9   2   1.1   .90   3.1   Ilyasova    10   .534   20   8   1   1.0   1.26   2.1
18   .492    9   3  10   1.1   .75   2.3    Marshall    9   .559   11   2   7   1.7    .60    .9
0                                     .0    O'Bryant    5   .407   10   5   1    .4    .20    .2
14   .480   11   4   5   1.0   .60   1.4    Wolters     3   .379    6   4   2   1.2   -.04    .0
.                                            KMart      2   .421    6   7   2   1.6    .36    .1

242                                 32.1              242                                   42.3

Virtually every player is shooting better and scoring more. Almost all are rebounding and assisting as much or more. And everyone has been stealing like crazy.
Blocks and turnovers are omitted for brevity. TO have been worse, but the margin vs opponents is still favorable.
I see 9 guys who could start for most teams in the league; not counting Parker.

[J.E.]

I think several things are at play for the Bucks
1. The Parker injury actually helped their (soon-to-be) win total. He may be great one day but rookies are generally not good in, well, their rookie year. He'd have taken minutes away from Dudley and Middleton
2. I remember Dudley saying in an interview that he played hurt pretty much all year for LAC. Before that season he had some good-to-decent years in PHX (at least in +/-).
3. Improvement due to age. The 3 players with highest MP on their roster are 23, 20 and 23 years old, resp. The alphabet, in particular, should have been expected to make a jump due to him being 19 last season

[Mike G]

1 - It may turn out to not hurt much that Parker was lost. As noted, they are 2 deep at every position.
2 - Dudley, Ilyasova, Mayo and others had off years last year. So it's still a freakish event that they all bounce back this year.
3 - At 24.7 years, they're the 5th- youngest team in the league. But even younger teams -- Philly, Utah, Minny, Orlando -- aren't seeing most of their players improve a lot, are they?
Knight and Middleton see their numbers jump at age 23.
The team went from 3rd worst to 3rd best in steals this year.

[J.E.]

MIN only has 2 players younger than 25 on their roster that aren't currently rookies: Muhammad and Bennett. Muhammad seems to have improved significantly in pretty much every metric, Bennett in every metric that's on bbr, but ironically not in my own (RPM)

These two are 6th and 7th in MP for MIN

[Mike G]

Speaking of b-r.com, for the last couple of years at least, they've had something like 'Projected Performance' (for the upcoming season) on player pages in the preseason. Seems one might have to sift thru every player page to gather these. Has anyone done that, who wants to say how it's done most practically, or whether it's worth much?

An 'aging' factor would be useful. But a 'bounceback' factor -- for younger players who've just had a down year -- would also be good. This Bucks team seems to have gathered a bunch of such players this season.

Are those b-r.com player projections still available somehow?