APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

[Statman]

Here are the final rankings:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Here are the R^2 of each user's rankings compared to the cumulative ranking

Code: Select all

Layne	0.887666481
Steve	0.551177824
Nick	0.839860748
Jesse	0.879277016
Mass	0.902710641
BPM	0.546599167
DE	0.817194972

Let's just say I'm shocked Kaminsky is ranked worse by the draft models than by the DX mock. I'm glad the mocks have moved him up so much the last few months, he has crushed it in my college player rankings for two seasons. He'll probably be between 4 to 7 in my draft model when done.

[EvanZ]

After seeing Steve's board, I started looking into Bobby Portis. Really impressed by what I see in him. Toughness, endless motor, good FT%, skilled passer by all accounts I read. He's long.

This guy looks like he should be a top 10 pick.

[nrestifo]

This all looks great. Thanks for putting it together. Any idea when it goes up?

[Barncore]

Here are the final rankings:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Here are the R^2 of each user's rankings compared to the cumulative ranking

Code: Select all

Layne	0.887666481
Steve	0.551177824
Nick	0.839860748
Jesse	0.879277016
Mass	0.902710641
BPM	0.546599167
DE	0.817194972

Great work guys.

Would love to see a 50/50 blend of DE rankings with the cumulative rankings if possible..?
If not that's fine, i spose i could probably do it myself.

[EvanZ]

@Ampersand, might want to add Kevin Pelton's board to that spreadsheet, if possible.

[thecorner3john]

Ampersand, I copied and pasted your work into my own spreadsheet and then added Pelton, Andrew Johnson, and Layne's Humble model, though they don't all grade the same set of players. I also made a tab for where some Euro's and more unknown NCAA guys would rank amongst the main NCAA guys. I haven't updated those numbers with Jessie's rankings yet, but they should be pretty close to accurate. Here's a public link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
Big time lurker who'd been compiling this on their own, thanks Ampersand for making it a lot easier. Let me know if there are any issues, I'll update the Euro numbers eventually.

[ampersand5]

After seeing Steve's board, I started looking into Bobby Portis. Really impressed by what I see in him. Toughness, endless motor, good FT%, skilled passer by all accounts I read. He's long.

This guy looks like he should be a top 10 pick.

I agree. Not that the models rank him that much lower, but I'm excited about his future.

[ampersand5]

Here are the final rankings:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Here are the R^2 of each user's rankings compared to the cumulative ranking

Code: Select all

Layne	0.887666481
Steve	0.551177824
Nick	0.839860748
Jesse	0.879277016
Mass	0.902710641
BPM	0.546599167
DE	0.817194972

Let's just say I'm shocked Kaminsky is ranked worse by the draft models than by the DX mock. I'm glad the mocks have moved him up so much the last few months, he has crushed it in my college player rankings for two seasons. He'll probably be between 4 to 7 in my draft model when done.

I think a few things are at play here.
- he's moved up considerably in mocks recently
- he isn't ranked that much lower
- Nick's model likely undervalues him because of his HS ranking
- there are less elite prospects at his age, so some of the regressions might be a bit wonky

[ampersand5]

This all looks great. Thanks for putting it together. Any idea when it goes up?

No problem.

Everything is in the hands of DE now. I believe all of the editing is done and they are just figuring out how best to embed the chart. Could be 10 minutes, could be a week...
(I'm guessing probably tomorrow?)

[ampersand5]

@Ampersand, might want to add Kevin Pelton's board to that spreadsheet, if possible.

100%. I can't include Kevin's work for the DE stuff, but sometime in the near future, we'll index all the analytic rankings on the web.

[ampersand5]

and we're live.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Ana ... Draft-5021

Thanks everyone for your hardwork. I think it looks fantastic. I hope this not only leads to further publicity for all of the users involved and the APBR board as a whole, but it can serve as a launching pad for further discussion.

[Barncore]

Congrats guys. Well done

[vjl110]

Great article. Thanks for putting this together.

[DSMok1]

Excellent work, everyone!

[Kevin Pelton]

For the spreadsheet, I have Treveon Graham 32, Shannon Scott 42 and Julian Washburn 116. I don't have a projection for Trice.