APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

[nrestifo]

Sorry I was MIA yesterday. I was outside in the stupid sun.

Consequently, I wanted to ask the people on here if they mind if I edit parts of their blurb. if you don't want me to shorten your stuff, I will leave it as is (PM if you don't want to post it publicly).

Feel absolutely free to edit mine if you like.

Nick, if I can get all of the scores for each model, can you try and figure this stuff out for the spreadsheet?

Yes. I can definitely take a look today. Would be happy to do so.

[nrestifo]

I'm noticing Jesse gave draft models their names. I dont really have a name for mine. Should I make one? Any suggestions?

[ampersand5]

The updated spreadsheet is almost done. You can view it here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

We are just waiting for Jesse's updated rankings.

Also, we need Andrew's rankings for the following players:
Wesley Saunders, Travis Trice, Shannon Scott, Seth Tuttle, Lebryan Nash, Juwan Staten, Joshua Smith and Derrick Marks

[nrestifo]

So here's what Z scores would like, if anyone wants to take a look.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =529517843

[Crow]

I like the consensus avg. right next to names on z score chart and would too for main chart. If consensus is a main feature make it easy to read. Another option is to put names on left and right ends of chart. Middle too may be too much but sometimes helps.


By consensus Looney appears to be one of most undervalued compared to DX, especially if you measure undervalue by expected value over expected value of draft pick # rather than difference between model pick # - actual (added value for pick #s rapidly decline after about 15; e.g. 20 over 21, 25 over 26, etc.) Is it significantly because of the asthma?


Maybe the over / under rated stuff with commentary from Jonathan is a part 3 or 4 thing. If it is short / not really that thorough and thoughtful it will detract.

At some point an avg. of mocks should be compared to an avg. of analytic models. Just before or after draft? Comparing to only one mock give the model avg. the sole advantage of blending.

There is also the word from the crowd: http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_mock_drafts/consensus
If there is room for another column and even comparison it might be nice to include a rep for the audience reading the article. Or just have this link here for that is space or politics precludes.

[ampersand5]

The spreadsheet is finally finished and ready to go.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

most underrated are: Delon Wright, Kevon Looney, Wesley Saunders, Seth Tuttle. Most overrated: Jonathan Holmes, Willie Cauley-Stein, Devin Booker, Anthony Brown.

for the lazy, here are the rankings:

Code: Select all

Ranking	Prospect
1	Karl Towns
2	D'Angelo Russell
3	Jahlil Okafor
4	Justise Winslow
5	Stanley Johnson
6	Myles Turner
7	Frank Kaminsky
8	Tyus Jones
9	Kevon Looney
10	Delon Wright
11	Bobby Portis
12	Kelly Oubre
13	Cameron Payne
14	Willie Cauley-Stein
15	Jerian Grant
16	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
17	Christian Wood
18	Devin Booker
19	Sam Dekker
20	R.J. Hunter
21	Montrezl Harrell
22	Trey Lyles
23	Robert Upshaw
24	Cliff Alexander
25	Richaun Holmes
26	Rashad Vaughn
27	Justin Anderson
28	Chris McCullough
29	Jarell Martin
30	Dakari Johnson
31	Aaron White
32	Terry Rozier
33	Jordan Mickey
34	Alan Williams
35	Vince Hunter
36	Wesley Saunders
37	J.P. Tokoto
38	Seth Tuttle
39	T.J. McConnell
40	Andrew Harrison
41	Larry Nance
42	Branden Dawson
43	Michael Frazier
44	Michael Qualls
45	Joseph Young
46	Darrun Hilliard
47	Josh Richardson
48	Rakeem Christmas
49	Keifer Sykes
50	Derrick Marks
51	Jonathan Holmes
52	Olivier Hanlan
53	Pat Connaughton
54	Norman Powell
55	Anthony Brown
56	Tyler Harvey
57	Aaron Harrison
58	Quinn Cook
59	Treveon Graham
60	Joshua Smith
61	TaShawn Thomas
62	Ryan Boatright
63	Chasson Randle
64	Shannon Scott
65	Corey Hawkins
66	Brandon Ashley
67	Chris Walker
68	Travis Trice
69	Dez Wells
70	D.J. Newbill
71	Terran Petteway
72	Julian Washburn
73	Marcus Thornton
74	Juwan Staten
75	LeBryan Nash

[Crow]

At some point it would be interesting to look at team by team avg pick distance from DX, a mock consensus, the crowds and the model consensus. That could be done with 2 or more years of the available data or just for this draft and perhaps moment to moment here or on twitter.

[ampersand5]

Everything is now done and sent off to DraftExpress.

[Statman]

Everything is now done and sent off to DraftExpress.

Again, great job Daniel being on the ball with this. Fun stuff imo.

[nrestifo]

Yes, a continued thanks to everyone for their work. Thanks to Amp for getting everything together and Jesse and Viraj for their awesome tool on tothemean.com as well.

[Crow]

I am glad to read that tothemean.com plans to put some other mocks side by side with the analytic models and is open to other adds.

[jessefis]

We're glad you guys are enjoying the tool. FYI I updated my rankings this morning - they changed quite a bit again. They should be more stable from here on out.

We are happy to add more models if you send us data. We'd love to get Kevin Pelton's up but we didn't want to blindly add without permission - might Kevin be following this thread?

[Crow]

I've seen some comments about how well measurables predict NBA performance in general but has anyone done breakouts on the top and bottom 10% and 25%s? Jesse, is this an area where you use a non-linear model? Does anyone use a model customized by position or at least perimeter / interior for this aspect?


I assume there are players that some teams have invested a couple hundred hours of total time in tracking and evaluating? How common is that do you think? I am assuming it is pretty common. Are any teams giving certain players a thousand plus hours (including travel time I guess and cumulative from beginning of tracking to the end)? How high do they go, should they go? Any teams spend north of $100,000 all things considered for evaluating a single high lottery pick? Is it unusual or not really? If they aren't, I'd ask why not? If they are, then they should have budgets to accomodate receipt of stat model advice (customized and interactive) and probably from multiple sources.

[jgivony]

Thanks for all your submissions guys. And thanks especially to dan for editing everything. I just posted the second article from the middle of the Atlantic. Was in Italy the last few days at Eurocamp so apologies for sitting on this a bit.

I thought the article came out great. Looking at international draft prospects in part three seems timely and appropriate now. We'll see if Vezenkov stays in the draft (not a big deal I think if hewithdraws and we wrote about him). Probably Kaba and Luwawu will be the other two guys that are on the mock that could withdraw.

If anyone needs data on the internationals I have quite a bit of stuff. Not just from their specific leagues (even junior competition) but also National team stuff from FIBA) as well as specific events like the EuroCamp or Euroleague Nike International Junior Tournament. Happy to send whatever if you guys can tell me specifically what you'd like (raw totals?)

[Crow]

Compared to the DX mock, the analytic model consensus makes a case for move up attempts for one or more of Jones, Portis, Looney and Wright. It doesn't happen often. Might be most likely for Portis (with Jones's size, Wright's age and Looney's asthma potentially tempering enthusiasm). Who from 8-13 is most likely to be willing to trade down? I dunno. Who is most likely to try to trade up? I'll guess the list includes prominently the Celtics, 76ers, Bucks, Rockets and perhaps Spurs. Some others that would like to probably don't have current assets to pay the bill.