Value of a steal

[Leszczur]

Hi,

I'm looking for some evidence showing "true" value of a steal. Value of a steal in 1 on 1 defense should be higher than the one when you play passing lanes or flat out "all hawk".
Ball hawking may translate into a lot of steals, but also may result in leaving you man open, what in effect may costs you a wide open jumper or drive to the basket.
Have you seen any objective analysis of that topic?
Many thanks in advance.

KR

Leszczur

[EvanZ]

It's interesting, but wouldn't someone have to track "potential steals"? It's hard enough to get data for potential assists (although some of us have done work in that area).

[Mike G]

Yes, while an NBA steal may have an average value, it depends on the team and the player. Some teams are better at recovering defensively after a missed steal, and some players are better at optimizing their steal attempts.

For several years now, I've been correlating the known boxscore stats to wins, and an average steal seems to be worth just about 1.5 points.
In individual playoff series -- team A vs team B -- the range can be wider. Last year, various series had apparent values from 1.30 to 1.65 .

[EvanZ]

Isn't shot efficiency much higher after a steal, too?

[Crow]

These past threads bear on the issue:

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... ?f=2&t=192
http://www.sonicscentral.com/apbrmetric ... ?f=2&t=300
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... php?p=1001

There are probably others here


....and elsewhere.
http://basketball-statistics.com/sereda ... rtone.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?page_id=4122
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2191

[Mike G]

The value of the ensuing offensive possession is enhanced, but the biggest part of the value is in the defensive possession.
There may be an unmeasurable 'intimidation' factor, as well. Often invoked as part of the value of a shotblocker, the opponent's reluctance to pass, or penetrate, may partly offset the negative value of 'failed steal attempts'.

[Crow]

Yes the defensive stop earns the bulk of the value for the steal. On the second page of the first link I provided there was assignment of at least +1 for that and the rest of the value (+0.3 or thereabouts) being the increased value on the ensuing offensive possession.

[Bobbofitos]

the value of a steal is transforming an opponent possession (which has some value, ~1pt) into a new possession for your team which rates to be improved (1pt would be a "normal" possession after a d reb or so, the X is the amount added from the steal). Mike said the value fluctuates (which it should, depending on your team and opponent, so varies from series to series) but 1.3 to 1.6 seems like a very reasonable range. of course, a steal in the boxscore does NOT have outright negative consequences (the "missed" steal) in which your entire 5man defense suffers, so you'd have to roll back the 1.3-1.6 figure something, to "2 seconds of 4 on 5 defense" or something like that. No idea how much that is worth, but it's something .1-.3 or so...

a steal > 1pt, <1.5, in absolute terms

[Leszczur]

Yes, while an NBA steal may have an average value, it depends on the team and the player. Some teams are better at recovering defensively after a missed steal, and some players are better at optimizing their steal attempts.

Agreed. And that what i was aiming at. Some teams can accomodate gambling for steals much better than others so perhaps a "per player and team" analysis would be more appropriate since you'd need to look for the outcomes of those "missed steals". This looks like more of a stuff that Synergy Sports would be dealing with.

For several years now, I've been correlating the known boxscore stats to wins, and an average steal seems to be worth just about 1.5 points.
In individual playoff series -- team A vs team B -- the range can be wider. Last year, various series had apparent values from 1.30 to 1.65 .

Sure - on an offensive end you can analyze play-by-play and calculate value of the steal. But on the defensive end negative value of a missed steal assessment would be needed to have a full picture. I remember that quite a few years ago there was an article on ESPN about Iverson and the true cost of his quick hands. The running hypothesis was - his gambling even if translates to a number of steals overall is hurting the team since too often his man is left wide open and gets high percentage shot.
But I got here few links to some interesting stuff to go through - thanks to all for that.

[Mike G]

... about Iverson and the true cost of his quick hands. The running hypothesis was - his gambling even if translates to a number of steals overall is hurting the team since too often his man is left wide open and gets high percentage shot.
...

That could be a true statement and yet a loaded statement. Some steals are there for the taking, and others are a calculated risk. In the low-probability part of the spectrum, a player may be said to be "gambling" on a steal attempt.

The broader question, though, is whether a given analysis picks up the effect of the associated factors that go along with a steal. These should be reflected on the scoreboard (if they matter, that is), and so PBP analyses might tell you how much better a lineup does when steals are made: A given lineup may play together X times in a year, totaling Y minutes. In some intervals, there have been no steals; in some intervals, 1 steal, or 2, etc. Sort these out, assume all else is equal, and deduce the value of a steal?

[Ambit Energy]

Either you are the shorter players or you can bend down really low, when the dribbler pushes the ball forward, if your center of mass is low enough, you can suddenly squeeze between the ball-handler and the ball and use your back to take the impact. The ball is then practically yours.

Ball handlers who don't have much moves are also easy preys. If his moves get repetitive, you can anticipate where he will be going, and more importantly, where the ball will be landing. Merely place your hand on where the ball will be landing will deflect the ball away. Try to deflect it as near the ground as possible. If you deflect it near his hand, he can easily swipe it away. Even if you cannot collect the ball. It will make him think twice before driving in front of you again.







John Galt
Ambit Energy, Sales Consultant
St. Louis, Missouri