2015-16 Team win projections

[ampersand5]

538 projections so far:
Miami 38-44
Toronto: 44-38
Philadelphia: 25-57
Houston: 52-30
Brooklyn 25-57
New Orleans: 46-36
Atlanta: 45-37
San Antonio: 56-26
Dallas: 41-41
Detroit: 38-44
Boston: 48-34
Oklahoma City: 56-26
LA Clippers: 55-27
Orlando: 37-45
Milwaukee: 36-46
LA Lakers: 27-55
Minnesota: 29-53
Indiana Pacers: 39-43
Chicago: 47-35
New York: 27-55

[ampersand5]

When should the deadline be?

[Crow]

Traditionally it is first game tipoff. So Tuesday Oct. 27 at 8pm Eastern Time.

[fpliii]

-removed-

[Crow]

In my opinion, win projections should be rounded to nearest win. There are no partial wins in real life NBA. Vegas straddles as the house sometimes but here I think it should be whole wins. Going to one to two decimals may be a slight advantage over not. It also adds width to score sheet. What do others think?

[fpliii]

In my opinion, win projections should be rounded to nearest win. There are no partial wins in real life NBA. Vegas straddles as the house sometimes but here I think it should be whole wins. Going to one to two decimals may be a slight advantage over not. It also adds width to score sheet. What do others think?

I have no preference.

-removed-

[bbstats]

official bbstats entry

Code: Select all

Team	ExpW
mia	35
por	42
lal	21
bos	52
mil	38
bkn	21
atl	43
gsw	64
nop	43
lac	53
cha	38
chi	46
ind	38
okc	54
mem	48
det	39
phx	38
nyk	28
phi	23
orl	33
was	47
tor	48
sas	56
dal	39
uta	42
sac	35
hou	55
den	27
cle	57
min	28

[kmedved]

I'd like to submit an entry too I guess.

Code: Select all

Team	Wins
GSW	61
OKC	57
CLE	57
SAS	56
LAC	53
HOU	53
BOS	50
MEM	49
WAS	45
TOR	45
CHI	44
IND	43
ATL	43
NOP	41
SAC	40
MIA	40
UTA	39
POR	39
MIL	39
DET	39
CHO	38
DAL	37
PHO	37
ORL	35
NYK	31
MIN	28
LAL	26
DEN	25
PHI	20
BRK	20

[Mike G]

Going with eWins applied to minutes submitted by K Pelton:

Code: Select all

tm     W
Atl    50
Bos    38
Brk    29
Cha    35
Chi    42
Cle    51
Dal    38
Den    28
Det    42
GSW    53
Hou    54
Ind    43
LAC    57
LAL    34
Mem    47
Mia    52
Mil    41
Min    28
NOP    42
NYK    26
Okl    57
Orl    33
Phl    18
Phx    36
Por    36
Sac    43
SAS    57
Tor    45
Uta    39
Was    36
T    1230

It looks as if bbstats has 1231 wins predicted.

[ampersand5]

Code: Select all

+----------------+------------+
| Daniel Frank's | Submission |
+----------------+------------+
| GSW            |         62 |
| SAS            |         58 |
| Cle            |         58 |
| LAC            |         54 |
| OKC            |         54 |
| Hou            |         54 |
| Mem            |         51 |
| Atl            |         48 |
| NOP            |         47 |
| Bos            |         46 |
| Chi            |         45 |
| Tor            |         45 |
| Uta            |         41 |
| Dal            |         40 |
| Ind            |         40 |
| Was            |         40 |
| Mia            |         40 |
| Cha            |         39 |
| PHX            |         38 |
| SAC            |         37 |
| Det            |         37 |
| Mil            |         36 |
| POR            |         35 |
| Orl            |         31 |
| Min            |         28 |
| Den            |         27 |
| Nyk            |         27 |
| BKN            |         26 |
| LAL            |         24 |
| Phl            |         22 |
+----------------+------------+

RPM/BPM blend + I used PTPM numbers + adjusted for schedule fatigue + I rounded up for the kings/pelicans due to new coaches.

If I cared more, I would have found a way to deflate the win totals of teams at the bottom to take into account tanking.

EDIT: I found another mistake. Will reupload correct numbers tomorrow.

[Crow]

atl 46
bos 46
brk 24
chi 46
cho 39
cle 58
dal 37
den 29
det 35
gsw 61
hou 56
ind 42
lac 54
lal 23
mem 49
mia 41
mil 41
min 28
nop 46
nyk 28
okc 53
orl 28
phi 22
phx 39
por 34
sac 38
sas 54
tor 46
uta 40
wash 47

[Dr Positivity]

Updated projections, I deleted my post earlier in the thread to avoid confusion:

East

CLE - 57
ATL - 54
TOR - 54
CHI - 47
WAS - 43
BOS - 41
DET - 39
IND - 38

CHA - 35
MIA - 34
PHI - 33
MIL - 30
ORL - 26
BKN - 20
NYK - 14

West

GSW - 66
OKC - 58
SAS - 56
UTA - 52
LAC - 52
MEM - 50
NOP - 48
HOU - 48

POR - 43
PHX - 42
DAL - 39
SAC - 36
DEN - 30
MIN - 25
LAL - 20

[AJbaskets]

This is my official entry, basically only adjustment from original Nylon post is dropping MKG's minutes:

Team Wins
CLE 58
ATL 50
BOS 49
TOR 48
CHI 48
WAS 43
CHA 38
IND 42
MIA 41
DET 38
MIL 36
ORL 27
BKN 25
NYK 25
PHI 24
GSW 66
SAS 59
LAC 53
OKC 54
HOU 52
MEM 50
NOP 45
DAL 40
UTA 37
SAC 35
PHX 34
POR 33
MIN 29
DEN 28
LAL 23

[sndesai1]

unless somebody else wants to keep track, i'm happy to do it again.

i don't necessarily see why an expected value should have no decimal places just because the results can't actually play out that way, but it looks like everybody is using whole numbers so i guess that will be the rule.

for all of the projections (such as the betting lines, five thirty eight or this set from si) that aren't adding up to around 1230 wins, should i normalize them to 1230 and round? i think last year, i scaled every projection to exactly 1230, but not sure if that's something people agree with or not

[fpliii]

Updated set with Pelton's final minutes (removed earlier posts):

Code: Select all

atl	47
bos	48
brk	29
chi	49
cho	35
cle	58
dal	39
den	29
det	39
gsw	61
hou	54
ind	46
lac	54
lal	25
mem	51
mia	44
mil	39
min	22
nop	49
nyk	28
okc	53
orl	28
phi	18
phx	38
por	32
sac	31
sas	57
tor	45
uta	36
was	46