Offensive trends and net results

[Crow]

http://thundermoneyball.weebly.com/blog/league-trends


Didn't realize ts% had fallen so much this season. Will it creep back up the rest of the way, as it may have in past years? How far?

[cemitten]

Thanks for this Crow!

It blew my mind that we are on pace for more 3pt attempts than Free Throw attempts for the first time in history. A sign of the times to be sure. Gotta believe the league loves it.

[Crow]

They probably like it.

I do wonder how much the reduction in ftas is "natural" and correlated with increased use of 3s and how much of it is change in referee behavior, somewhat independent of the change in fga location trends.

[CrackersPhinn]

I think ref behavior has almost certainly changed. To prove it, I guess I would look to see if there has been any change in the ratio of And1s to total FTAs. I'd be willing to bet that ratio has gone down the last 5 years.

[Crow]

Anyone have that data for league over time?
Also wonder about # fouls away from ball getting ftas.


Between 1985 and 2008, 3 pt attempts are up about 500%. FTAs are down about 20%.

[Mike G]

http://thundermoneyball.weebly.com/blog/league-trends

Didn't realize ts% had fallen so much this season. Will it creep back up the rest of the way, as it may have in past years? How far?

League TS% has not fallen. It's .538, up from .534 last year.
That link also claims 1999 TS% dropped to .473; in fact it was a modern low, but .511 is the correct number.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _1999.html

The other anomaly that I see is 2012 with a dip to ~.517. TS% hit a 12-yr low of .527 that year.
Now we have a trifecta of seasons w < 82 games, and can guess that a calc involving /82 needs to be amended.

If you account for the short-arc years, you probably get rid of that 1995-97 Bump of .536-.543 (high at the time) shooting. Between that and the later errors, you may have no downward slope.

Regarding the inverse relationship between 3fga and FTA, how about the one between FTA and 2fga?

Code: Select all

yr	  FT/2
2010	.385
2011	.386
2012	.357
2013	.358
2014	.384
2015	.373
2016	.384

No discernible trend of late. Here are all the high and low points, ignoring minor blips:

Code: Select all

year   FT/2
2016   .384
2012   .357
2006   .417
2002   .357
1996   .411
1992   .335
1987   .363
1973   .261
1968   .368
1960   .329
1953   .466

The 65-year avg FTA/2fga is .361

[cemitten]

Thanks, Mike. You were correct I had remnants of full season estimates of FTA left in the data which messed up those years. I adjusted it. The slope is effectively 0 with the changes.

[Mike G]

Very well, then. As you corrected it, the TS% graph changed to the same scale as eFG%, and now they're almost identical.