Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:34 pm
Taking the top 100 WinShares seasons by rookies in the last 10 years -- that is >1.3 WS -- scaling 2012 and this year's crop up to 82 games:
Code: Select all
. yr Age Min PER WS/48 WS VORP BPM
2007 22.5 25645 14.1 .094 50.3 7.3 -0.9
2008 22.6 23422 14.4 .102 49.8 9.6 -0.4
2009 21.1 47776 15.0 .094 93.1 16.0 -0.7
2010 21.6 39877 14.7 .097 80.6 13.5 -0.7
2011 21.8 25150 15.0 .102 53.3 13.3 0.1
2012 21.5 33199 14.3 .096 66.2 17.4 0.1
2013 22.1 34296 14.0 .089 63.9 8.6 -1.0
2014 22.3 20316 12.8 .081 34.1 5.4 -1.0
2015 21.8 22645 13.5 .075 35.5 7.4 -0.7
2016 21.1 24416 15.0 .112 52.4 10.1 -0.3
avg 21.8 29473 14.3 .094 57.9 10.9 -0.5
This year's crop has more impact than the last 2 yrs, but they haven't gotten the minutes of an elite group.
EDIT: Search omitted Okafor, Portis, Bjelica, Reed -- so they didn't get scaled up, etc.
They total about 5 WS.
nanawacin
Posts: 24 Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:51 am
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by nanawacin Mon Apr 04, 2016 8:52 am
Any comments on massive advantage Porzingis (and Jokic) has over Towns in RAPM and RPM?
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
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by Mike G Mon Apr 04, 2016 10:09 am
Have you got numbers upon which to comment?
nanawacin
Posts: 24 Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:51 am
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by nanawacin Mon Apr 04, 2016 4:22 pm
RPM from ESPN
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:24 pm
Were other rookies ranked above Towns, or just these two?
nanawacin
Posts: 24 Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:51 am
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by nanawacin Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:21 am
I'm not sure about other rookies, but shouldn't RAPM after about ~25% of season be as good as two years APM? Besides RPM covers almost whole season and Towns is still behind, so he would be even more behind in RAPM, because there is no box score component which gives KAT a lot of value.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:41 pm
Towns has played 50% more minutes than Jokic, so that should be factored in.
How much are they adding to their teams? In terms of point differential, or plus-minus, we might consider their potential replacements.
Based on 95 poss/48 min., these might be alternative
replacement level RPM to consider:
Code: Select all
. point-diff relative to "replacement" RPM
. RPM Min -2 -4 -6
Jokic 5.9 1610 133.9 167.8 201.7
Porzingis 2.7 2047 101.3 144.4 187.5
Towns 1.2 2457 82.8 134.5 186.2
It may be that Towns (or Porzingis) have weaker alternatives as teammates. In which case, you might say they've contributed more than Jokic has, even if these RPM are accurate.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sun Jul 24, 2016 6:18 pm
Rookies totaled 78 eWins.
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.2 Karl-Anth. Towns Min 32 .582 19.7 12.3 2.2 .8 2.5 1.9 1.87
6.3 Nikola Jokic Den 22 .573 15.5 11.6 3.7 1.6 2.1 1.0 1.77
6.2 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 28 .511 18.0 9.1 1.6 .9 2.1 2.4 1.46
3.8 Jahlil Okafor Phl 30 .528 19.5 8.0 1.3 .5 2.8 1.4 1.16
3.4 Myles Turner Ind 23 .524 15.9 8.4 1.1 .6 1.7 2.2 1.19
3.0 D'Angelo Russell LAL 28 .501 15.5 4.1 3.8 1.5 3.1 .2 .65
2.9 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .432 14.5 4.1 6.3 1.1 3.8 .6 .68
2.7 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .506 12.0 6.6 2.1 .8 1.2 .8 .78
2.7 Willie Cau-Stein Sac 21 .577 10.5 8.5 .9 1.2 1.1 1.7 .93
2.5 Devin Booker Phx 28 .527 16.4 3.1 3.2 .7 2.7 .3 .58
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.3 T.J. McConnell Phl 20 .509 9.7 5.0 6.9 2.0 3.0 .2 .71
2.2 Trey Lyles Uta 17 .512 12.8 8.0 1.6 .6 1.6 .4 .79
2.2 Boban Marjanovic SAS 9 .643 20.2 12.7 1.4 .7 1.8 1.4 2.10
2.2 Bobby Portis Chi 18 .465 12.9 9.7 1.5 .8 1.7 .6 .95
1.8 Stanley Johnson Det 23 .455 12.0 6.4 2.4 1.1 2.3 .2 .52
1.7 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 20 .539 8.8 8.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 .6 .67
1.7 Justise Winslow Mia 29 .482 8.1 6.5 1.8 1.1 1.5 .4 .37
1.3 Nemanja Bjelica Min 18 .587 9.1 6.8 2.5 .8 1.5 .6 .58
1.2 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 21 .509 8.9 8.9 2.1 2.2 1.5 .9 .96
1.2 Jerian Grant NYK 17 .471 11.1 3.7 4.5 1.3 2.3 .3 .46
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 Raul Neto Uta 19 .525 11.7 3.0 4.3 1.4 2.6 .0 .39
1.2 Norman Powell Tor 15 .534 13.1 5.4 2.5 1.4 1.5 .5 .78
1.1 Cameron Payne Okl 12 .488 12.8 4.0 5.4 1.7 2.0 .3 .78
1.1 Jonathon Simmons SAS 15 .575 14.5 4.0 2.5 1.0 2.1 .2 .63
1.0 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .554 12.4 6.0 1.3 .9 1.5 1.9 .72
1.0 Josh Richardson Mia 21 .562 10.7 3.4 2.2 1.1 1.1 .8 .44
1.0 Willie Reed Brk 11 .567 12.9 9.3 .7 .5 1.2 2.2 1.09
.8 Salah Mejri Dal 12 .619 10.2 9.8 .8 .7 1.9 3.1 1.03
.8 Justin Anderson Dal 12 .514 10.4 6.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 .63
.7 Cristiano Felicio Chi 10 .587 10.3 9.7 2.5 .6 1.3 1.2 1.11
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.7 Mario Hezonja Orl 18 .537 11.1 4.2 2.4 .9 2.3 .4 .25
.6 Jarell Martin Mem 14 .520 13.0 7.6 1.2 .7 1.6 .6 .79
.5 Kelly Oubre Was 11 .501 10.8 6.4 .6 1.1 1.6 .3 .38
.5 Tyus Jones Min 15 .444 8.5 2.8 6.0 1.8 1.9 .2 .40
.5 Delon Wright Tor 8 .528 14.5 5.3 4.7 1.1 2.2 .4 .95
.4 Chris McCullough Brk 15 .465 9.7 6.3 .7 2.6 1.4 1.1 .57
.4 Montrezl Harrell Hou 10 .619 11.1 5.3 1.5 .9 1.4 .9 .54
.4 Joseph Young Ind 9 .424 12.7 4.0 5.4 1.2 2.7 .0 .53
.4 Marcelo Huertas LAL 16 .485 8.4 3.3 6.4 1.0 3.0 .3 .20
.3 Darrun Hilliard Det 10 .503 12.6 3.8 2.2 .7 1.6 .1 .39
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.3 Christian Wood Phl 9 .480 12.2 7.8 .6 1.1 .4 1.5 .93
.3 Jordan McRae Phx Cle 9 .538 15.8 3.3 4.1 .5 2.4 .2 .64
.3 Bryce Dejean-Jones NOP 20 .497 9.3 6.1 1.8 1.3 1.4 .2 .44
.2 Xavier Munford Mem 17 .476 10.8 4.3 2.9 1.8 2.1 .4 .42
.2 Jarell Eddie Was 6 .457 12.3 4.7 1.0 1.0 .2 .2 .53
.1 Briante Weber Mem 28 .363 6.1 5.3 4.2 1.9 1.9 .6 .33
.1 R.J. Hunter Bos 9 .478 9.4 3.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 .4 .16
.1 Terry Rozier Bos 8 .324 7.0 6.0 3.8 .6 1.9 .1 .15
.1 Axel Toupane Den 15 .484 7.8 3.4 1.5 .7 .6 .6 .10
.0 Damien Inglis Mil 8 .439 7.0 6.3 1.8 1.2 2.2 .6 .08
eWin per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.0 Lamar Patterson Atl 11 .462 6.9 3.8 3.2 .7 1.9 .2 -.02
.0 Pat Connaughton Por 4 .350 7.1 6.5 2.1 .4 2.1 .0 -.05
-.2 Anthony Brown LAL 21 .423 6.1 3.9 1.0 .8 .9 .3 -.15
-.4 Rashad Vaughn Mil 14 .397 6.9 2.9 1.1 1.0 .9 .5 -.18
Crow
Posts: 10536 Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Post
by Crow Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:35 pm
What is the average EWins score for all players? How many rookies were better than league average? Mean performance and / or median? 3? 6? More?
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:16 pm
NBA avg is 1.00 eW/484 min. Only 5 rookies were above that rate for more than a few mpg.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Fri Nov 25, 2016 2:27 pm
Resurrected thread alert! This is (belated) 2015-16 final rookie report.
Code: Select all
eW per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.2 Karl-A Towns Min 32 .582 19.7 12.3 2.2 .8 2.5 1.9 1.87
6.3 Nikola Jokic Den 22 .573 15.5 11.6 3.7 1.6 2.1 1.0 1.77
6.2 Kris. Porzingis NYK 28 .511 18.0 9.1 1.6 .9 2.1 2.4 1.46
3.8 Jahlil Okafor Phl 30 .528 19.5 8.0 1.3 .5 2.8 1.4 1.16
3.4 Myles Turner Ind 23 .524 15.9 8.4 1.1 .6 1.7 2.2 1.19
3.0 D'Angelo Russell LAL 28 .501 15.5 4.1 3.8 1.5 3.1 .2 .65
2.9 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .432 14.5 4.1 6.3 1.1 3.8 .6 .68
2.7 Frank Kaminsky Cha 21 .506 12.0 6.6 2.1 .8 1.2 .8 .78
2.7 W Cauley-Stein Sac 21 .577 10.5 8.5 .9 1.2 1.1 1.7 .93
2.5 Devin Booker Phx 28 .527 16.4 3.1 3.2 .7 2.7 .3 .58
eW per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.3 T.J. McConnell Phl 20 .509 9.7 5.0 6.9 2.0 3.0 .2 .71
2.2 Trey Lyles Uta 17 .512 12.8 8.0 1.6 .6 1.6 .4 .79
2.2 Boban Marjanovic SAS 9 .643 20.2 12.7 1.4 .7 1.8 1.4 2.10
2.2 Bobby Portis Chi 18 .465 12.9 9.7 1.5 .8 1.7 .6 .95
1.8 Stanley Johnson Det 23 .455 12.0 6.4 2.4 1.1 2.3 .2 .52
1.7 Larry Nance Jr. LAL 20 .539 8.8 8.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 .6 .67
1.7 Justise Winslow Mia 29 .482 8.1 6.5 1.8 1.1 1.5 .4 .37
1.3 Nemanja Bjelica Min 18 .587 9.1 6.8 2.5 .8 1.5 .6 .58
1.2 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 21 .509 8.9 8.9 2.1 2.2 1.5 .9 .96
1.2 Jerian Grant NYK 17 .471 11.1 3.7 4.5 1.3 2.3 .3 .46
eW per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 Raul Neto Uta 19 .525 11.7 3.0 4.3 1.4 2.6 .0 .39
1.2 Norman Powell Tor 15 .534 13.1 5.4 2.5 1.4 1.5 .5 .78
1.1 Cameron Payne Okl 12 .488 12.8 4.0 5.4 1.7 2.0 .3 .78
1.1 Jonathon Simmons SAS 15 .575 14.5 4.0 2.5 1.0 2.1 .2 .63
1.0 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .554 12.4 6.0 1.3 .9 1.5 1.9 .72
1.0 Josh Richardson Mia 21 .562 10.7 3.4 2.2 1.1 1.1 .8 .44
1.0 Willie Reed Brk 11 .567 12.9 9.3 .7 .5 1.2 2.2 1.09
.8 Salah Mejri Dal 12 .619 10.2 9.8 .8 .7 1.9 3.1 1.03
.8 Justin Anderson Dal 12 .514 10.4 6.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 .63
.7 Cristiano Felicio Chi 10 .587 10.3 9.7 2.5 .6 1.3 1.2 1.11
eW per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.7 Mario Hezonja Orl 18 .537 11.1 4.2 2.4 .9 2.3 .4 .25
.6 Jarell Martin Mem 14 .520 13.0 7.6 1.2 .7 1.6 .6 .79
.5 Kelly Oubre Was 11 .501 10.8 6.4 .6 1.1 1.6 .3 .38
.5 Tyus Jones Min 15 .444 8.5 2.8 6.0 1.8 1.9 .2 .40
.5 Delon Wright Tor 8 .528 14.5 5.3 4.7 1.1 2.2 .4 .95
.4 Chris McCullough Brk 15 .465 9.7 6.3 .7 2.6 1.4 1.1 .57
.4 Montrezl Harrell Hou 10 .619 11.1 5.3 1.5 .9 1.4 .9 .54
.4 Joseph Young Ind 9 .424 12.7 4.0 5.4 1.2 2.7 .0 .53
.4 Marcelo Huertas LAL 16 .485 8.4 3.3 6.4 1.0 3.0 .3 .20
.3 Darrun Hilliard Det 10 .503 12.6 3.8 2.2 .7 1.6 .1 .39
.3 Christian Wood Phl 9 .480 12.2 7.8 .6 1.1 .4 1.5 .93
Rookies totaled 78 eWins