Playoffs 2016

[mystic]

I didn't see a thread yet ...

Anyway, I calculated the odds for each playoff series, maybe someone is interested in the results. No surprises, I would say, besides the matchup between the Heat and the Hornets.

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Cle  in 4:    0.1342
Cle  in 5:    0.2426
Cle  in 6:    0.1873
Cle  in 7:    0.1856
Det  in 4:    0.0217
Det  in 5:    0.0457
Det  in 6:    0.0959
Det  in 7:    0.0869
Cle  wins:    0.7497
Det  wins:    0.2503

Tor  in 4:    0.0959
Tor  in 5:    0.1982
Tor  in 6:    0.1697
Tor  in 7:    0.1922
Ind  in 4:    0.0349
Ind  in 5:    0.0685
Ind  in 6:    0.1303
Ind  in 7:    0.1102
Tor  wins:    0.6561
Ind  wins:    0.3439

Mia  in 4:    0.0264
Mia  in 5:    0.0775
Mia  in 6:    0.0859
Mia  in 7:    0.1380
Cha  in 4:    0.1178
Cha  in 5:    0.1756
Cha  in 6:    0.2306
Cha  in 7:    0.1481
Mia  wins:    0.3279
Cha  wins:    0.6721

Atl  in 4:    0.1471
Atl  in 5:    0.2552
Atl  in 6:    0.1907
Atl  in 7:    0.1813
Bos  in 4:    0.0188
Bos  in 5:    0.0402
Bos  in 6:    0.0866
Bos  in 7:    0.0800
Atl  wins:    0.7743
Bos  wins:    0.2257

Gsw  in 4:    0.3469
Gsw  in 5:    0.3488
Gsw  in 6:    0.1660
Gsw  in 7:    0.0914
Hou  in 4:    0.0026
Hou  in 5:    0.0065
Hou  in 6:    0.0181
Hou  in 7:    0.0199
Gsw  wins:    0.9530
Hou  wins:    0.0470

Sas  in 4:    0.4989
Sas  in 5:    0.3360
Sas  in 6:    0.1115
Sas  in 7:    0.0412
Mem  in 4:    0.0006
Mem  in 5:    0.0015
Mem  in 6:    0.0047
Mem  in 7:    0.0056
Sas  wins:    0.9876
Mem  wins:    0.0124

Okc  in 4:    0.2555
Okc  in 5:    0.3258
Okc  in 6:    0.1896
Okc  in 7:    0.1324
Dal  in 4:    0.0061
Dal  in 5:    0.0147
Dal  in 6:    0.0373
Dal  in 7:    0.0386
Okc  wins:    0.9033
Dal  wins:    0.0967

Lac  in 4:    0.1763
Lac  in 5:    0.2803
Lac  in 6:    0.1948
Lac  in 7:    0.1698
Por  in 4:    0.0136
Por  in 5:    0.0303
Por  in 6:    0.0690
Por  in 7:    0.0660
Lac  wins:    0.8212
Por  wins:    0.1788

[Mike G]

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Mia  wins:    0.3279
Cha  wins:    0.6721

While Mia is the 3rd seed and Cha is 6th, they're part of a 4-way tie for 3rd, at 48-34.
Cha has the better SRS, 2.36-1.50
Is that what you used to calculate these?

[mystic]

Cha has the better SRS, 2.36-1.50
Is that what you used to calculate these?

1. minute projection for each team
2. calculating team rating based on player metric and minute distribution
3. calculation of matchup ratings (regression analysis of the pbp data of the games against each other, coefficients then weighted according to the previously calculated minute distribution)
4. linear combination of team and matchup ratings

Hornets have the better team rating as well as the better matchup rating. But so have the Raptors ...

[Mike G]

League eFG% was .502 this year. Saturday's 8 teams averaged .513 in the season, and their opponents shot .492
So they might have been expected to shoot right around .502 ?
Combined eFG% was .434 -- leading to an avg of just 94 ppg

Lots of rebounds, though -- 48 per team.
About 7 eFG missed that normally are made by these teams, on avg.
Two teams shot better than their season eFG%: Ind .500 (vs .493) and OKC .525 (vs .523). The others were from .071 to .182 (Dal) worse than normal.

[Crow]

Last year's playoffs average efg% was .487 after a regular season of .496. First round has more bad teams than later so it will probably be worse. Perhaps first playoff game is the worst of all, normally? Or maybe it is a fluke.

[Crow]

"3. calculation of matchup ratings (regression analysis of the pbp data of the games against each other, coefficients then weighted according to the previously calculated minute distribution)"

I assume you are talking about team matchups? If so, then you are assuming similar patterns on player matchups. A coach could alter results by altering player matchups. Would you have the interest and ability to go to that level and find optimal team rotation / matchup preferences? Maybe there would be some bargaining model to try to sort out likely negotiated matchups? That would be really advanced. Coaching habits of who plays when and how long could narrow the vast choices down to a modest, more manageable set of patterns.

[sideshowbob]

mystic!

What are your qualitative/quantitative thoughts on Curry this year? Lot of talk of him playing at GOAT level, would you say you'd agree given what you've seen?

[Mike G]

In their playoff opener, both Cha and Dal had their worst game of the season, in margin of defeat.
Hou had their 2nd worst, Mem their 4th worst, and Por their 8th worst games so far.

[sideshowbob]

Miami put up the highest ORTG of this season of any team in game 1 at 147.4.

[sideshowbob]

Miami with a crazy 136.9 ORTG (~135 w/team TOs) on Charlotte through two games. Currently the highest ORTG in any series ever since 1984 (record is 127.3 by Phoenix in 1st round of 95 playoffs).

[Mike G]

Here are best ORtg-DRtg (Net ORtg) for series at various levels of the postseason.

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NetO   1st Rd    W-L  opp
32.9 *2016  SAS  2-0* Mem
31.4  1986  LAL  3-0  SAS
27.2  2009  Den  4-1  NOH
25.7  1996  Chi  3-0  Mia
25.4 *2016  Mia  2-0* Cha
25.2  1987  LAL  3-0  Den
25.2  2001  Cha  3-0  Mia

NetO   2nd Rd    W-L  opp
29.9  2010  Orl  4-0  Cha
22.3  2009  Cle  4-0  Det
16.0  2011  Dal  4-0  LAL
15.5  2013  Mia  4-1  Chi
15.1  1989  Phx  4-1  GSW

NetO   3rd Rd    W-L  opp
24.8  2001  LAL  4-0  SAS
19.6  1996  Chi  4-0  Orl
15.1  1998  Uta  4-0  LAL
14.9  1986  Bos  4-0  Mil
14.3  2015  Cle  4-0  Atl

NetO   Finals    W-L  opp
16.0  2014  SAS  4-1  Mia
11.2  1991  Chi  4-1  LAL
10.6  2004  Det  4-1  LAL
10.4  2009  LAL  4-1  Orl
10.2  2002  LAL  4-0  NJN

http://bkref.com/tiny/1OcLP
The Nuggets have the biggest best-of-7 domination (vs Hornets in '09) in any first round series since 1984; the Magic thrashed the other Hornets even worse in the 2nd round of 2010.

In 1st round series, this year's Clippers are next up (8th); the Thunder are 11th; Dubs 18th
Something about 2 games, both at home?

[mystic]

If so, then you are assuming similar patterns on player matchups.

Indeed, that's what the past is telling us. Usually, coaches use rather similar lineups and matchups which worked in the past, even if it didn't quite work against a specific opponent. Coaches are usually reluctant to change things massively; they stick to the plan. There are always the exceptions to the rule, and there are small changes which mostly will only be seen, if we pay attention to detail.

My current approach has the obvious disadvantage of being based on a extremely small sample size. But that isn't too much of an issue, because the overall influence isn't that big (roughly 15% of the overall value is based on the matchup rating). But using that improved the predictive power slightly.

Would you have the interest and ability to go to that level and find optimal team rotation / matchup preferences? Maybe there would be some bargaining model to try to sort out likely negotiated matchups? That would be really advanced. Coaching habits of who plays when and how long could narrow the vast choices down to a modest, more manageable set of patterns.

In general that is an interest of mine, but the issue is obviously sample size. I'm working on something which should overcome that issue, but while the pre-lim results were rather good (it is boxscore and player measurements based), I once posted player ratings derived from that approach, which had higher correlation to RAPM than BMP), it is still work in progress, because I quite simply don't have the ressources. The idea is to find a pattern (different player types) and then go from there. There is a distinct pattern found, but there seems to be some variance between seasons where I have an idea how to stabilize the results, but haven't found the time yet to bring that work to an end. But if things go well, I probably found someone willing to provide the necessary ressources (including man power) to work on that further. Well, we have to see how much time I can spend on that ...

What are your qualitative/quantitative thoughts on Curry this year? Lot of talk of him playing at GOAT level, would you say you'd agree given what you've seen?

I'm following the conversation on RealGM somewhat, and I'm more on the Draymond-Green-side of things here ... I like Curry a lot, he is extremely fun to watch, but I would not say that he is GOAT-level yet. I'm really confident that I would take Jordan, O'Neal, Olajuwon, Garnett and James ahead of him in terms of peak-level. He is the GOAT shooter, without a doubt; he is even more versatile in creating his own perimeter shot than Steve Nash was, which has a lot to do with his extreme quick release. Besides that he can create the offense for others, but I think that in time teams can adapt their defense accordingly to lower Curry overall offensive impact more than they could do that for Jordan or O'Neal. I think that some of that was seen over the course of the season already. We need to see how Currys can further improve and find a counter to the other teams' "counter" ... But he also needs to be healthy. Hopefully, him sitting out now for two games was just a precaution and not a sign of something serious. He had ankle issues in the past and there were some questionmarks, but it did seem to have vanished. Maybe he should ask Nowitzki for advice to get some "rubber-ankles", he rolled his ankles multiple times and still had/has a long career.

[Mike G]

Some completed series summaries:

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. Spurs         min    PER   WS/48  BPM   e480       WS  vorp  eWin
Kawhi Leonard   126   35.4   .439  14.9   2.80     1.15   .53   .73
LaMar. Aldridge 113   22.0   .253  -1.0   1.68      .60   .03   .40
Tony Parker      89   12.7   .084  -5.2   1.18      .16  -.07   .22
Danny Green      83   13.0   .150   5.4    .80      .26   .15   .14
Boris Diaw       82   13.9   .170    .8    .92      .29   .06   .16

Tim Duncan       81   19.6   .251   7.9   1.55      .42   .20   .26
Patrick Mills    78   20.9   .258   6.3   1.45      .42   .16   .24
Manu Ginobili    76   19.8   .347   8.9   1.47      .55   .21   .23
David West       72   22.4   .299  10.1   1.35      .45   .22   .20
Kyle Anderson    68    7.6   .105    .1    .41      .15   .04   .06

Kevin Martin     29   19.6   .166   2.2   1.67      .10   .03   .10
Jonathon Simmons 26   17.6   .228   6.1   1.08      .12   .05   .06
Boban Marjanovic 23   29.8   .447   2.6   2.43      .21   .03   .12
Andre Miller     15   11.1   .228   -.2    .40      .07   .01   .01

totals          961   19.8   .247   4.8   1.46     4.95  1.64  2.92
  
                          
. Grizzlies     min    PER  WS/48   BPM   e480       WS  vorp  eWin
Matt Barnes     139    7.7  -.107  -3.7    .44     -.31  -.06   .13
Zach Randolph   120   12.2  -.092  -5.9    .90     -.23  -.12   .23
Jordan Farmar   113    6.0  -.120  -7.2    .04     -.28  -.15   .01
Lance Stephenson 95   17.4   .066  -1.7    .81      .13   .01   .16
Tony Allen       94    7.1  -.107  -4.6    .24     -.21  -.06   .05

Vince Carter     91   20.0   .140   2.4   1.16      .27   .10   .22
Xavier Munford   89    7.0  -.111  -3.0    .25     -.21  -.02   .05
Chris Andersen   79   14.9   .016  -1.2    .78      .03   .02   .13
JaMychal Green   72   16.8   .054   1.5    .89      .08   .06   .13
Jarell Martin    46    7.4  -.071  -3.5    .00     -.07  -.02   .00
P.J. Hairston    22     .6  -.173  -8.4   -.44     -.08  -.04  -.02

totals          960   11.2  -.044  -3.1    .54     -.88  -.27  1.08
                           
 
                          
. Cavs          min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480       WS  vorp  eWin
LeBron James    165   23.3   .164   5.6   2.28      .56   .31   .78
Kyrie Irving    151   27.7   .239   5.1   2.34      .75   .27   .74
Kevin Love      143   21.4   .170   -.4   2.03      .51   .06   .60
J.R. Smith      142   16.4   .172   5.1    .74      .51   .25   .22
Tris. Thompson  113   11.6   .128   4.6    .04      .30   .19   .01

Matt Dellavedova 72   25.8   .349   3.2   1.73      .52   .09   .26
Rich. Jefferson  66    5.8   .055  -1.3   -.44      .08   .01  -.06
Iman Shumpert    61    8.1   .048   -.3    .15      .06   .03   .02
Channing Frye    29    2.8   .027  -2.0   -.60      .02   .00  -.04
Timofey Mozgov   14  -11.4  -.333 -14.2  -1.80     -.10  -.04  -.05

totals          956   18.2   .161   2.9   1.24     3.21  1.17  2.48
   
                        
. Pistons       min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480       WS  vorp  eWin
K Caldwell-Pope 161   16.7   .070   5.0    .69      .23   .28   .23
Tobias Harris   156   17.0   .070   3.4   1.06      .23   .21   .34
Reggie Jackson  147   18.7   .049   2.4   1.14      .15   .16   .35
Marcus Morris   144   17.3   .097   2.5    .77      .29   .16   .23
Andre Drummond  131   18.1  -.011 -10.0   1.26     -.03  -.26   .34

Stanley Johnson  81   12.7   .026  -4.9    .18      .04  -.06   .03
Aron Baynes      44    6.2  -.086  -4.6   -.47     -.08  -.03  -.04
Steve Blake      43     .6  -.166  -9.3   -.87     -.15  -.08  -.08
Anthony Tolliver 26   10.4   .007   1.1   -.29      .00   .02  -.02
Reggie Bullock   22   32.2   .330  11.7   1.48      .15   .08   .07

Spencer Dinwiddie 2   66.0   .970   7.7   4.85      .04   .00   .02
Jodie Meeks       2   47.0   .310   7.9   1.76      .01   .00   .01

totals          959   16.1   .045    .1    .74      .90   .49  1.48

[Mike G]

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. Thunder      min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      WS  vorp  eWin
Kevin Durant   191   16.4   .109  -3.8   1.54     .43  -.09   .61
Ru. Westbrook  180   32.4   .362  14.2   2.93    1.36   .73  1.10
Serge Ibaka    162   20.7   .282   8.1   1.37     .95   .41   .46
Steven Adams   138   18.1   .221   5.3   1.11     .64   .25   .32
Dion Waiters   132   15.1   .176   3.7    .89     .48   .19   .25

An. Roberson   117   10.9   .130   4.6    .53     .32   .19   .13
Enes Kanter    102   35.5   .447   8.6   2.66     .95   .27   .57
Randy Foye      61    1.8  -.057  -4.2    .06    -.07  -.03   .01
Nick Collison   49    8.4   .153   9.0    .14     .16   .13   .01
Anthony Morrow  25   15.2   .197   -.3    .76     .10   .01   .04

Kyle Singler    19   12.6   .198   -.4    .47     .08   .01   .02
Cameron Payne   10   13.6   .190  -3.4    .79     .04   .00   .02
Josh Huestis    10   11.3   .163  -5.3    .58     .03  -.01   .01
Nazr Mohammed    4   -7.7  -.212  -7.4  -1.24    -.02  -.01  -.01

totals        1200   19.2   .218   4.9   1.41    5.45  2.06  3.53
    
                       
. Mavericks    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      WS  vorp  eWin
Wes. Matthews  173   10.2  -.042  -2.4    .31    -.15  -.02   .11
Raymond Felton 172   14.1  -.040  -1.5    .75    -.14   .02   .27
Dirk Nowitzki  170   19.4   .036  -1.7   1.11     .13   .01   .39
Devin Harris   121   10.8   .004  -1.4    .30     .01   .02   .07
Zaza Pachulia  112   17.5   .108   2.4    .95     .25   .12   .22

J.J. Barea     100    2.4  -.244 -12.5   -.14    -.51  -.26  -.03
Ju. Anderson    95   19.7   .060   3.2   1.12     .12   .12   .22
Salah Mejri     76   14.9   .082   2.3    .58     .13   .08   .09
Dwight Powell   64   17.4   .063   -.4    .75     .08   .03   .10
Deron Williams  49    1.7  -.257 -12.0   -.17    -.26  -.12  -.02

David Lee       33   14.5   .101  -1.5    .55     .07   .00   .04
Ch. Villanueva  20    1.0  -.289 -14.8    .01    -.12  -.06   .00
JaVale McGee    14   -0.2  -.303 -14.6   -.41    -.09  -.04  -.01

totals        1199   13.1  -.019  -2.3    .59    -.48  -.10  1.47

The Mavs played like a below-replacement team (BPM), with negative Wins Shared.
Durant worst player on the winning team (vorp).

[Mike G]

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. Warriors      min   PER    WS/48  BPM   e480      WS  vorp  eWin
Draymond Green  177   17.2   .219   7.1   1.58     .81   .40   .58
Klay Thompson   170   22.2   .266   6.4   2.03     .94   .36   .72
Harrison Barnes 147    6.7   .060  -2.3    .23     .18  -.01   .07
Andre Iguodala  139   18.8   .263   6.5   1.31     .76   .30   .38
Sh. Livingston  135   21.2   .291   5.5   1.77     .82   .25   .50

Andrew Bogut     90   19.3   .313  11.9   1.63     .59   .31   .31
Marr. Speights   72   19.5   .186    .0   1.86     .28   .04   .28
Leandro Barbosa  67   16.5   .196   3.5    .97     .27   .09   .14
Ian Clark        57   21.3   .321   8.4   1.58     .38   .15   .19
Festus Ezeli     40   11.1   .047  -5.1   1.04     .04  -.03   .09

Stephen Curry    38   24.0   .144   8.0   2.81     .11   .10   .22
Brandon Rush     37   15.3   .190   2.8    .88     .15   .04   .07
James McAdoo     17    9.3   .028   6.5    .70     .01   .04   .02
Anderson Varejao 14    6.6   .091  -2.0    .26     .03   .00   .01

. totals        1200  17.4   .215   4.8   1.42    5.37  2.03  3.56
           
                
. Rockets       min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      WS  vorp  eWin
James Harden    193   22.6   .113   5.9   1.72     .45   .38   .69
Trevor Ariza    181    2.0  -.123  -5.5   -.29    -.46  -.16  -.11
Dwight Howard   180   16.1   .045  -1.0   1.13     .17   .05   .42
Patr. Beverley  129    5.3  -.037  -5.4    .13    -.10  -.11   .04
Jason Terry     124    5.8  -.016  -5.6   -.09    -.04  -.11  -.02

Do. Motiejunas   98   12.1  -.044  -3.9    .81    -.09  -.05   .17
Michael Beasley  80   16.6   .017  -6.6   1.16     .03  -.09   .19
Corey Brewer     77    1.6  -.128  -9.8   -.23    -.21  -.15  -.04
Clint Capela     43   13.6   .006  -1.7    .84     .01   .00   .08
Josh Smith       38    8.1  -.048  -5.6    .24    -.04  -.03   .02

K.J. McDaniels   34    7.6  -.031  -6.6    .35    -.02  -.04   .02
Montrezl Harrell 12    -.8  -.164  -17    -.46    -.04  -.05  -.01
Andrew Goudelock 11     .7  -.363  -24    -.15    -.08  -.06   .00

. totals        1200  10.7  -.017  -3.4    .58    -.43  -.42  1.44