Playoffs 2016

[Mike G]

After 3 rounds, playoff leaders.
PER and BPM are converted to "wins"; averaged with eW and WS to get xyz.

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xyz     player          tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
3.55 Russell Westbrook OKC   674   27.0   .209  11.7   2.52
3.16   LeBron James    Cle   530   29.1   .288  12.0   2.78
2.25   Kevin Durant    OKC   726   20.4   .130   1.8   1.74
2.17   Draymond Green  GSW   639   17.8   .157   6.5   1.43
2.17   Kyrie Irving    Cle   501   24.6   .228   4.8   2.10

2.09   Klay Thompson   GSW   602   21.2   .170   3.4   1.65
2.03   Kyle Lowry      Tor   766   16.6   .077   3.7   1.46
1.87   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   339   28.8   .273  10.6   2.38
1.79   Dwyane Wade     Mia   473   22.5   .149   4.1   2.19
1.77   Stephen Curry   GSW   368   26.0   .204   8.5   2.39

xyz     player          tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1.69   Kevin Love      Cle   455   20.5   .202   3.2   1.92
1.62   Serge Ibaka     OKC   602   15.3   .162   3.9    .77
1.60   Steven Adams    OKC   553   16.9   .179   2.9   1.01
1.55   Paul George     Ind   275   28.1   .292  10.2   2.58
1.47 Jonas Valanciunas Tor   321   26.8   .226   4.0   2.52

1.40   Luol Deng       Mia   495   15.6   .157   4.3    .97
1.34 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS   337   25.2   .225   1.8   1.94
1.34   Damian Lillard  Por   437   20.0   .120   3.2   1.53
1.33  Hassan Whiteside Mia   291   24.4   .275   4.4   2.20
1.30   J.R. Smith      Cle   469   14.4   .166   5.7    .63

xyz     player          tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1.26   Andre Iguodala  GSW   528   13.7   .143   3.7    .60
1.25   Bismack Biyombo Tor   506   16.0   .146    .0   1.18
1.19   Andrew Bogut    GSW   305   18.6   .218   7.9   1.43
1.12   Enes Kanter     OKC   323   22.4   .218    .7   1.54
1.12   Goran Dragic    Mia   472   15.2   .100   1.2   1.30

1.01   Paul Millsap    Atl   365   17.7   .108   3.0   1.36
0.99   Andre Roberson  OKC   471   11.6   .110   4.1    .51
0.97   Al Horford      Atl   327   17.7   .127   4.4   1.33
0.97   DeMar DeRozan   Tor   746   14.3   .009  -3.4   1.14
0.94   Channing Frye   Cle   204   23.9   .282   8.0   1.59

[Mike G]

After losing game 1, the Cavs are given just a 13% chance to win the Finals, by b-r.com
This seems surprising, given their first 3 rounds' record. Through 14 games, they stack up against some of the best teams ever, in pt differential.

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tm     yr    MOV
LAL   1987   15.1
Mil   1971   14.5
Chi   1996   13.4
Bos   1986   13.1
LAL   2001   12.7
Cle   2016   12.6
Den   2009   12.4
Chi   1991   12.1
Mia   2013   10.3
LAL   1985   10.2

http://bkref.com/tiny/Iacj5
All these were champs, except the 2009 Nuggets. That team beat NOH by 24 ppg, the Mavs by 8 ppg, and at 14 games, they'd outscored the Lakers by 2.5 ppg.

[Mike G]

Cavs now with a 12% chance, according to b-r.com
Last year, the GSW were down 2-1, won the next 3.
In 2013, the Heat were down 2-1, and 3-2, won in 7.
2011, Mavs down 2-1, win the rest.
In 2006, Heat down 2-0 (and 2-1), win 4 straight.

Seems like it's not that unusual: 4 times in 10 years, 3 of the last 5.
A 30-point loss is still just one loss. Start the next game at 0-0.
Anyone have a prediction how this one is going to play out?
I'll say it goes 6 or 7.

[Mike G]

2016 playoffs eWins leaders.

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eWins   per36 rates     tm   G   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
4.85   LeBron James    Cle   21   39  .576   28.1   9.9   7.2   2.2   3.6  1.1   2.83
3.51 Russell Westbrook OKC   18   37  .505   25.8   7.0  11.1   2.5   4.4   .1   2.50
3.22   Kyrie Irving    Cle   21   37  .567   27.6   3.3   4.7   1.7   2.4   .6   2.00
2.77   Draymond Green  GSW   23   38  .539   14.7   9.2   5.5   1.5   2.4  1.7   1.52
2.60   Kevin Durant    OKC   18   40  .532   26.6   6.6   3.0    .9   3.4   .9   1.72

2.58   Stephen Curry   GSW   18   34  .596   30.0   5.8   5.3   1.5   4.6   .3   2.02
2.57   Klay Thompson   GSW   24   35  .581   25.8   3.7   2.3   1.1   2.1   .4   1.46
2.31   Kyle Lowry      Tor   20   38  .500   18.8   5.0   5.8   1.5   3.2   .1   1.48
2.14   Dwyane Wade     Mia   14   34  .524   25.5   6.7   4.6    .9   3.2  1.0   2.23
2.04   Kevin Love      Cle   20   31  .530   17.9  11.8   2.6    .5   1.7   .4   1.59

eWins   per36 rates     tm   G   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.75   DeMar DeRozan   Tor   20   37  .455   19.6   4.5   2.6   1.1   2.4   .1   1.15
1.67 Jonas Valanciunas Tor   12   27  .591   21.9  16.3   1.3   1.1   2.2  1.6   2.55
1.67   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   10   34  .587   29.2   7.0   3.0   2.8   1.9  1.5   2.36
1.48   Paul George     Ind    7   39  .616   31.5   7.0   4.5   1.8   3.2   .7   2.58
1.38   Damian Lillard  Por   11   40  .518   22.7   3.7   5.1   1.2   2.9   .3   1.53

1.35 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS   10   34  .570   25.8   9.3   1.0    .4   1.3  1.5   1.92
1.32  Hassan Whiteside Mia   10   29  .659   18.9  14.8    .4   1.0   1.8  3.5   2.20
1.27   Goran Dragic    Mia   14   34  .508   19.0   5.8   4.2    .5   2.6   .2   1.32
1.23   Bismack Biyombo Tor   20   25  .586    9.5  14.8    .6    .6   1.6  2.0   1.19
1.15   Steven Adams    OKC   18   31  .617   12.8  11.8    .9    .6   1.2   .9   1.00

Curry and Thompson make 2nd team.

[Mike G]

In the interest of more comprehensive coverage, here are players who were in the top 20 in either Win Shares, eWins, or VORP for the playoffs.
Homemade/unauthorized Wins equivalents are generated from PER and BPM; xyz is then the average of the 4 Wins estimates.

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xyz   Win estimates    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480   perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
5.00   LeBron James    30.0   .274  13.1   2.83    4.5   4.7   6.0   4.8
3.54 Russell Westbrook 26.9   .208  11.7   2.50    3.2   2.9   4.5   3.5
3.24   Kyrie Irving    24.4   .210   4.8   2.00    3.3   3.4   3.1   3.2
3.19   Draymond Green  18.6   .171   7.1   1.52    2.5   3.1   4.3   2.8
2.61   Klay Thompson   19.5   .143   2.8   1.46    2.6   2.5   2.7   2.6

2.41   Stephen Curry   22.3   .152   6.4   2.02    2.3   1.9   2.8   2.6
2.24   Kevin Durant    20.3   .130   1.8   1.72    2.4   2.0   2.0   2.6
2.03   Kyle Lowry      16.6   .077   3.7   1.48    1.9   1.2   2.7   2.3
1.86   Kawhi Leonard   28.6   .271  10.6   2.36    1.7   1.9   2.1   1.7
1.85   Kevin Love      17.9   .157   1.7   1.59    1.7   2.0   1.7   2.0

xyz   Win estimates    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480   perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
1.83   Andre Iguodala  13.8   .133   3.8    .65    1.4   2.1   2.8   1.0
1.78   Dwyane Wade     22.3   .148   4.0   2.23    1.8   1.5   1.7   2.1
1.65   J.R. Smith      12.5   .135   4.3    .44    1.1   2.1   2.8    .7
1.62   Serge Ibaka     15.3   .163   3.9    .76    1.3   2.0   2.2   1.0
1.60   Steven Adams    16.8   .179   3.0   1.00    1.4   2.1   1.8   1.2

1.53   Paul George     27.5   .284  10.2   2.58    1.3   1.6   1.7   1.5
1.50  Tristan Thompson 14.2   .155   2.6    .67    1.2   2.0   1.9    .9
1.47 Jonas Valanciunas 26.8   .226   4.0   2.55    1.5   1.5   1.2   1.7
1.40   Luol Deng       15.5   .158   4.3    .97    1.1   1.6   1.9   1.0
1.34   Andrew Bogut    18.2   .194   7.4   1.37    1.0   1.5   1.8   1.0

xyz   Win estimates    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480   perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
1.34   Damian Lillard  19.8   .118   3.5   1.53    1.4   1.1   1.5   1.4
1.33  Hassan Whiteside 24.3   .275   4.4   2.20    1.2   1.7   1.1   1.3
1.33 LaMarcus Aldridge 25.0   .223   1.8   1.92    1.5   1.6    .9   1.3
1.25   Bismack Biyombo 15.9   .146    .1   1.19    1.2   1.5   1.1   1.2
1.12   Enes Kanter     22.4   .218    .8   1.53    1.2   1.5    .8   1.0
1.10   Goran Dragic    15.0   .099   1.1   1.32    1.0   1.0   1.2   1.3

.        totals                                   46.6  52.0  58.4  47.7

The last 4 columns show which players are favored by which stats. BPM-Wins run 12-24% greater, because BPM considers level of competition.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... anced.html
These 26 players account for 55-60% of 86 playoff games/wins.

[huevonkiller]

Interesting, but you should try to incorporate a playoff version of these kinds of stats:

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/p ... tile&dir=1

Just looking at steals, rebounds, blocks seems wrong when there's a lot about defense we don't have to guess on anymore.

Defensively, Westbrook was really respectable this year, but he's not usually as good as his athleticism implies in the long-run. Kyrie also really dropped off in this post-season, although he's not usually that bad.