Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Bucks got 3 point shooters in off season... and rank 26th of 3 pt fg% in the pre-season. Down 5 spots from last season. Problem not resolved. Low on attempts too. 2nd worst raw fg%. Must have a great offensive strategy. Or least some neat shot charts on file.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Check in:
Giannis realized his potential in a number of areas. Usage, assists, steals, blocks. Other stats generally pretty close to past except more 3 attempts without accuracy improvement at all. Also remains poor to terrible from 3-16 feet. Giannis without Middleton is highly active / productive.
Parker? Slightly above average on WS/48. Slightly below average on RPM. Usage jump but TS% barely budged from meh. Monroe by far the 2nd best player by boxscore and RPM.
Both offensive and defensive efficiency are close to 10th ... or about as close to 15th. 4th easiest schedule by BR SOS shades things favorably.
Most used lineup is small net negative. Only 2 lineups used more than 2 minutes per game. Lots of hit n run dink lineups. Might be catching teams off guard, with too low expectations. Plenty of test ahead. 3 of the 4 most uses player pairs are negative and the other is barely positive. Improvements likely possible.
Giannis great with bench guys Monroe and Brogdon but plays more and negative with Delly, Henson and Parker. Parker's only positive player pair in team top 20 is with Monroe. A trade or several is still suggested.
17th on 3 pt attempt rate is an improvement but 17th is not impressive.
Bench has a lot of neutral impact guys on RPM. That is pretty good generally but many are pretty expensive neutrals.
Giannis realized his potential in a number of areas. Usage, assists, steals, blocks. Other stats generally pretty close to past except more 3 attempts without accuracy improvement at all. Also remains poor to terrible from 3-16 feet. Giannis without Middleton is highly active / productive.
Parker? Slightly above average on WS/48. Slightly below average on RPM. Usage jump but TS% barely budged from meh. Monroe by far the 2nd best player by boxscore and RPM.
Both offensive and defensive efficiency are close to 10th ... or about as close to 15th. 4th easiest schedule by BR SOS shades things favorably.
Most used lineup is small net negative. Only 2 lineups used more than 2 minutes per game. Lots of hit n run dink lineups. Might be catching teams off guard, with too low expectations. Plenty of test ahead. 3 of the 4 most uses player pairs are negative and the other is barely positive. Improvements likely possible.
Giannis great with bench guys Monroe and Brogdon but plays more and negative with Delly, Henson and Parker. Parker's only positive player pair in team top 20 is with Monroe. A trade or several is still suggested.
17th on 3 pt attempt rate is an improvement but 17th is not impressive.
Bench has a lot of neutral impact guys on RPM. That is pretty good generally but many are pretty expensive neutrals.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
It is tough to lose a player to injury.
RPM estimated Parker at -0.5, 6th best overall impact on team.
RPM estimated Parker at -0.5, 6th best overall impact on team.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Giannis, great regular season. More than I expected, looking behind too much.
Playoffs, down quite a bit. Still big role but less efficient. Not as strong shooting, less Moreyball, less assists. Not sure about the defense.
Important team & player to watch from here.
Playoffs, down quite a bit. Still big role but less efficient. Not as strong shooting, less Moreyball, less assists. Not sure about the defense.
Important team & player to watch from here.
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jgoldstein34
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Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
It was his first taste of the playoffs, I think he'll be okay. If this becomes a pattern next season than it could be cause for concern. He really need a bit of a jump shot because the Raptors were just helping way off him. Ibaka did a pretty good job of stopping him at the rim too. He just needs to be able to hit a shot when left wide open, at least for now. John Wall & DeMar DeRozan have the same issue, just can get taken out of the game more easily than other elite players.
The Jabari Parker extension this next season will be the second most exciting behind Embiid. Will have such a small sample size after returning from the ACL injury.
They really need a new PG, Dellavedova is not the answer. Ideally, the can start Middleton, Giannis, Parker and Maker together and just fill the last spot with a 3&D player like Snell (or hopefully someone actually good at it).
The Jabari Parker extension this next season will be the second most exciting behind Embiid. Will have such a small sample size after returning from the ACL injury.
They really need a new PG, Dellavedova is not the answer. Ideally, the can start Middleton, Giannis, Parker and Maker together and just fill the last spot with a 3&D player like Snell (or hopefully someone actually good at it).
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
I'd still be planning to trade Parker. Before or after RFA, though there are some deals I wouldn't match. Wouldn't extend without huge discount which he isn't giving. Probably trade Monroe. Maybe trade the pair together. But might rationalize keeping Monroe (may not get that big of next offer from others), especially if they can move another center.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
There are major fit issues within Bucks lineups. 7 of the top 8 "trios" were negative in the regular season and the other one was very modestly positive. 5 of the top 6 pairs are negative, as are 65% of the top 20 most used.
The 4 best trios all had Monroe, yet there has been a lot of talk over time about his days being numbered in Milwaukee.
Playoff plus minus was very mixed with some bright spots.
But they'll need to do better or a lot better to get where they want to go.
Only 28% of their regular season lineups were positive, which is quite low.
Only 2 lineups used more than 2 minutes per game for the season. 8 for more than a minute per game, 501 for less or way less time. Plus 119 for those used over 1 minute per game, minus 134 for the rest of the dink lineups. But they'll probably dink a lot next season too.
Only 2 factors above average, 6 below. Kinda surprising they won 40, except being in the east obviously helps. Way below average with regards to rate of 3pointers and freethrows. #1 on shot rate at the rim and above average on 3pt fg% but attack needs more strategic execution.
The 4 best trios all had Monroe, yet there has been a lot of talk over time about his days being numbered in Milwaukee.
Playoff plus minus was very mixed with some bright spots.
But they'll need to do better or a lot better to get where they want to go.
Only 28% of their regular season lineups were positive, which is quite low.
Only 2 lineups used more than 2 minutes per game for the season. 8 for more than a minute per game, 501 for less or way less time. Plus 119 for those used over 1 minute per game, minus 134 for the rest of the dink lineups. But they'll probably dink a lot next season too.
Only 2 factors above average, 6 below. Kinda surprising they won 40, except being in the east obviously helps. Way below average with regards to rate of 3pointers and freethrows. #1 on shot rate at the rim and above average on 3pt fg% but attack needs more strategic execution.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
For all the great individual play of Giannis, the Bucks starters are losing their together badly. 5 of the top 8 lineups on minutes are negative, all badly. 4 of the 5 are horrible on offense, 2 horrible on defense. 1 is shooting very well at team level, 2 near average, 2 awful.
Giannis, Snell, Middleton, Brogdon all sucking on pair +/- with Maker.
Giannis / Middleton -30 with Maker, +38 without. The difference is almost all on defense. How long do they go before changing this?
Add Brogdon to Giannis & Middleton and the defense gets better.
Snell generally works well enough with the big 3.
Henson has best raw +/- on team so far. Giannis, middle of pack and negative.
Switching Henson for Maker would be the main recommendation based on this data.
Giannis, Snell, Middleton, Brogdon all sucking on pair +/- with Maker.
Giannis / Middleton -30 with Maker, +38 without. The difference is almost all on defense. How long do they go before changing this?
Add Brogdon to Giannis & Middleton and the defense gets better.
Snell generally works well enough with the big 3.
Henson has best raw +/- on team so far. Giannis, middle of pack and negative.
Switching Henson for Maker would be the main recommendation based on this data.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
5 of the top 7 most used lineups for the bucks are still negative, most badly, but the starters are up to close to neutral. Starters are bombing from 3 but not hitting. Really not getting to line as much as opponent and losing on defensive board. With Henson the first two problems go away (for indirect causes or randomness) but the defensive rebounding issue is worse and a OReb gap also emerges. But overall team is 27 points better per 100 possessions with Henson over Maker. But no starts for Henson cuz... Every Henson lineup used over 4 minutes and 1 sec. (7 pf them) have been wildly successful so far. His individual stats are up and down. Maker's individual stats are down in most cases from last season (steals being the main exception). They both foul like crazy but Maker is worse.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Tonight against Thunder: Giannis with good individual stats but bad (-15) raw plus minus. Team shot poorly from 3 and didn't rebound.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Negative SRS. Just barely playoff ranked. Only 2 players besides Giannis pulling above average scores on any of the main box score metrics. Middleton never looked near this bad on them. Missing a lot of shots and turning it over.
Must have been some recent game that helped the starters raw plus minus and the team reb%s, but there is still a lot of meh and bad.
Ball dominant Giannis just 73rd on assists per 100 possessions. 2nd worst raw plus minus in main rotation. I am still expecting good to great RPM but that won't eliminate strategy questions if the team results remain meh.
Must have been some recent game that helped the starters raw plus minus and the team reb%s, but there is still a lot of meh and bad.
Ball dominant Giannis just 73rd on assists per 100 possessions. 2nd worst raw plus minus in main rotation. I am still expecting good to great RPM but that won't eliminate strategy questions if the team results remain meh.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Henson to start tonight.