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jmcfaul13
Joined: 12 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:18 pm Post subject: Unrecorded Useful Stats Reply with quote
I've been thinking about creating a site that records stats no one else does, but that would still be considered useful. An example-Recording the average time into the shot clock a team shoots each game. I suspect that teams that get into their sets quicker or shoot the ball sooner in the shot clock have a higher fg%, but of course, no one records that information.
Are there any stats you would like to see that no one records?
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
There are a few sites that do some of the same, but maybe not that prominently, so probably would want to know what they are doing if you want to focus on the truly uncounted.
Recording the average time into the shot clock a team shoots each game would be good, though a rough estimate could be found now from what 82 games reports and the distribution is useful information too.
Some other ideas:
Second chance points has been mentioned before, preferably at player and team level for the season.
Same with fast break points for the season if you think it can be fairly done with a second cutoff for scoring shorter than 10 seconds (that data is available at 82 games). Maybe use 5 or 6 seconds?
If you wanted to pursue little things. maybe shots and FG% within the last 1-4 seconds of a quarter to get at player behavior in that circumstance.
Shots from more than 28-30 feet.
Airballs based on clock stop and no individual rebound? Not needed, might be considered cruel but it could be interesting to see how often the pros do it in their games.
A frequency showing how often a player "uses" the possession 2, 3, 4, etc times in row?
Possession scoring streaks? Maybe same for assists and turnovers to round things out.
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bchaikin
Joined: 27 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:34 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Are there any stats you would like to see that no one records?
non-steal forced turnovers. any time a player commits a turnover that is not credited as a steal to a defender, credit a defender for good defense with a non-steal forced turnover....
surely there will be turnovers with no obvious defender deserving credit. but you count enough of these as credited to defenders and we'll get a good idea of who is making an impact on defense, similar to how we count blocks or charges drawn...
right now milwaukee is best in the league with 9.0 non-ST forced TO/100poss, the lakers the worst with just 6.7. but i wouldn't know which players on the bucks to give the credit to...
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jmcfaul13
Joined: 12 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:26 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Crow wrote:
There are a few sites that do some of the same, but maybe not that prominently, so probably would want to know what they are doing if you want to focus on the truly uncounted.
Recording the average time into the shot clock a team shoots each game would be good, though a rough estimate could be found now from what 82 games reports and the distribution is useful information too.
Some other ideas:
Second chance points has been mentioned before, preferably at player and team level for the season.
Same with fast break points for the season if you think it can be fairly done with a second cutoff for scoring shorter than 10 seconds (that data is available at 82 games). Maybe use 5 or 6 seconds?
If you wanted to pursue little things. maybe shots and FG% within the last 1-4 seconds of a quarter to get at player behavior in that circumstance.
Shots from more than 28-30 feet.
Airballs based on clock stop and no individual rebound? Not needed, might be considered cruel but it could be interesting to see how often the pros do it in their games.
A frequency showing how often a player "uses" the possession 2, 3, 4, etc times in row?
Possession scoring streaks? Maybe same for assists and turnovers to round things out.
Hmm, that's interesting. I checked out 82games, seems they do season stats for shot clock usage: http://www.82games.com/0910/0910WAS3.HTM
I don't see any stats for individual games however, so I suppose it's still an option. I was thinking more of a layout like espns.. where you can see game logs as well.
I like your idea for second chance points, I'm just suprised no one does that already?
I was also thinking about recording how long each player has possession of the ball, does that sound ridiculous or interesting?
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:46 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
bchaikin wrote:
Are there any stats you would like to see that no one records?
non-steal forced turnovers. any time a player commits a turnover that is not credited as a steal to a defender, credit a defender for good defense with a non-steal forced turnover....
surely there will be turnovers with no obvious defender deserving credit. but you count enough of these as credited to defenders and we'll get a good idea of who is making an impact on defense, similar to how we count blocks or charges drawn...
right now milwaukee is best in the league with 9.0 non-ST forced TO/100poss, the lakers the worst with just 6.7. but i wouldn't know which players on the bucks to give the credit to...
My PBP code records these as "team turnovers", which I split credit among teammates. With a little bit more effort I could keep track of counterparts for these.
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EvanZ
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:47 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
jmcfaul13 wrote:
I was also thinking about recording how long each player has possession of the ball, does that sound ridiculous or interesting?
How would you get this?
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jmcfaul13
Joined: 12 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:52 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
jmcfaul13 wrote:
I was also thinking about recording how long each player has possession of the ball, does that sound ridiculous or interesting?
How would you get this?
Recording the game and watching it...very tedious...but I feel like most stats are based off the play by plays that everyone has access to... so if you want to do something new, you'll have to record it yourself.
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 7:28 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
On second chance points, STATS LLC is doing it and providing it to paying customers (newspapers) but no one has offered it free to the public as a full database, just the occasional team level second chance citation in newspaper articles.
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greyberger
Joined: 27 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:27 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
Recording the game and watching it...very tedious...but I feel like most stats are based off the play by plays that everyone has access to... so if you want to do something new, you'll have to record it yourself.
If you're going to invest a lot of time in a project like this, it's good that you're making sure the results will be worth looking at.
Something that would be cool to see (and I don't think redundant with anybody else's project or even paid services like Synergy) would be pass charts. This would be something like the score sheets demonstrated at the beginning of BoP except coded.
The key idea is that every half-court pass is recorded along with other key moments in the possession. In BoP, this means dribbling that advances the ball or occurs in the post but you could code less or more information (say ball-screens) and still have some interesting results. If you include a timestamp or the result of the possession the pass-chart can be reconciled with play-by-play information.
It would be useful or at least interesting information to see, even it it were just for one team.
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Mike G
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 9:01 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Do we know what fraction of a player's missed FGA are offensively rebounded?
If not, this might be pretty good to know. A .400 shooter whose misses are recaptured .40 of the time is better than a .450 shooter with a .20 recovery rate.
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EvanZ
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 9:23 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
Do we know what fraction of a player's missed FGA are offensively rebounded?
If not, this might be pretty good to know. A .400 shooter whose misses are recaptured .40 of the time is better than a .450 shooter with a .20 recovery rate.
I would think these data would be skewed towards bigs who put back their own misses.
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Mike G
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 10:28 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Also skewed toward penetrators who break down the defensive rebounding wall. And midsize guys who follow their misses.
About half of the top eFG% in the league are primarily outside shooters.
There's a big difference in effectiveness of shots with/without offensive rebounders in position.
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EvanZ
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 10:35 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
Also skewed toward penetrators who break down the defensive rebounding wall. And midsize guys who follow their misses.
About half of the top eFG% in the league are primarily outside shooters.
There's a big difference in effectiveness of shots with/without offensive rebounders in position.
Yeah, I agree this could make valuation better. For example, in ezPM I treat every missed shot as worth the same, and if the ball is rebounded by the offense, the same credit for that. If it's true that some shots are "more or less reboundable", than I could adjust those credits. In theory...
(and thinking about it, if the average ORR is 30%, it might be 20% in some cases and 40% in other cases, which would obviously be important to know)
This could be one of the things that shows up on APM that none of our models capture (right?).
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Crow
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:45 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Recording how long each player has possession of the ball and how it moves could be interesting. Though labor intensive, you could select a manageable cut and glean some insights. Maybe pick from the top 6 teams and a few games where they play each other. And maybe even just focus on time when all 5 starters or at least 4 are present on offense to cut down on the work and target understanding of the most normal / set offensive patterns. What these guys do probably will generally describe what other teams and lineups do or should do and it would be most relevant for the playoff match-ups to come.
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ScoutingMachine
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:16 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Another idea...
You can do something regarding shot selection and offensive rebounds of any given player. Something like these:
What is the average ORB% for players that shoot more than 50% of their shots from three?
What is the average ORB% for slashers who take more of their shots at the rim?
What players standout in this situation? For example, Jared Dudley is a guy that shoots lots of 3s but manages to have a high ORB%.
Last edited by ScoutingMachine on Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:25 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
There are other things that could / probably should be counted like pick-assists, rebounding tips, balls saved from going out of bounds, etc. Would be better to get them into the boxscore but perhaps they could get in to the Synergy data or a league database from their own video if they move that way.
There is probably an old thread or a few here about uncounted things if you want to dig around.
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back2newbelf
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:16 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I think it would be quite useful to break down assists. Did the passer run circles around the entire defense and then lob it up perfectly for a dunk or was the ball simply passed around the 3 point line, going side to side a couple of times with all offensive players just sitting in their spots, until some random dude decided to shoot.
The second scenario probably requires less skill and effort by the assister but the assigned credit is the same
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:08 am Post subject: Reply with quote
I think once the tools like Statscube, Advanced Scout would go public either as a paid content or fremium, all these metrics you count above can be tracked. Nonetheless, I don't see this happens in near future.
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mtamada
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 19, 2011 1:44 am Post subject: Reply with quote
A big one which hasn't been mentioned in this thread (but has been mentioned plenty of times in other threads): passes that would've been assists, but were not, due to either the shooter getting fouled, or the shooter missing the shot. We could have a whole discussion about whether the passer should get any credit for a pass which led to a missed shot, but regardless, we don't have the data.
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EvanZ
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 9:39 am Post subject: Reply with quote
bchaikin wrote:
Are there any stats you would like to see that no one records?
non-steal forced turnovers. any time a player commits a turnover that is not credited as a steal to a defender, credit a defender for good defense with a non-steal forced turnover....
Got around to it. Laughing
Non-steal "forced" turnovers per 100 possessions:
Code:
RANK NAME TEAM #POSS CPTOV RATE100
1 Jose Barea DAL 1546 37 2.39
2 JaVale McGee WAS 2099 50 2.38
3 Vladimir Radmanovic GSW 1147 27 2.35
4 Greg Monroe DET 1591 36 2.26
5 C.J. Watson CHI 1017 23 2.26
6 Keyon Dooling MIL 1703 38 2.23
7 Hedo Turkoglu PHX 1168 26 2.23
8 Zaza Pachulia ATL 1037 23 2.22
9 Rodney Stuckey DET 2005 44 2.19
10 Brandon Bass ORL 1740 38 2.18
11 Beno Udrih SAC 2670 57 2.13
12 Anderson Varejao CLE 1838 39 2.12
13 Andrea Bargnani TOR 2584 53 2.05
14 Emeka Okafor NOH 2555 51 2.00
15 Mike Conley MEM 2967 59 1.99
16 Hakim Warrick PHX 1459 29 1.99
17 Marquis Daniels BOS 1362 27 1.98
18 Brandon Jennings MIL 1670 33 1.98
19 Andrew Bogut MIL 2246 44 1.96
20 Marcus Camby POR 1997 39 1.95
21 D.J. Augustin CHA 2461 48 1.95
22 T.J. Ford IND 1344 26 1.93
23 Nate Robinson BOS 1441 27 1.87
24 Jameer Nelson ORL 1874 35 1.87
25 Steve Nash PHX 2419 45 1.86
26 Zach Randolph MEM 2767 51 1.84
27 C.J. Miles UTA 1682 31 1.84
28 Ben Wallace DET 1575 29 1.84
29 Josh Smith ATL 2622 48 1.83
30 Channing Frye PHX 2462 45 1.83
31 Brad Miller HOU 1260 23 1.83
32 Ersan Ilyasova MIL 1866 34 1.82
33 Nazr Mohammed CHA 1107 20 1.81
34 Eric Maynor OKC 1115 20 1.79
35 Shaquille O'Neal BOS 1227 22 1.79
36 Ty Lawson DEN 2008 36 1.79
37 Ronny Turiaf NYK 1339 24 1.79
38 Kevin Love MIN 3093 55 1.78
39 Corey Brewer MIN 2028 36 1.78
40 Amare Stoudemire NYK 3109 55 1.77
41 Jason Richardson PHX 1529 27 1.77
42 Luc Mbah a Moute MIL 1768 31 1.75
43 Dante Cunningham POR 1543 27 1.75
44 James Jones MIA 1661 29 1.75
45 Zydrunas Ilgauskas MIA 1381 24 1.74
46 Jared Dudley PHX 1844 32 1.74
47 Jason Thompson SAC 1506 26 1.73
48 Joel Anthony MIA 1279 22 1.72
49 Spencer Hawes PHI 1588 27 1.70
50 Serge Ibaka OKC 2136 36 1.69
To answer Bob's question, five Bucks appear on the list. Also, maybe this explains some of why Dooling appears near the top of APM.
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:57 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Good job. It's quite shocking to see VladRad out there!
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EvanZ
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:03 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Serhat Ugur (hoopseng) wrote:
Good job. It's quite shocking to see VladRad out there!
Thanks. I posted this comment on the site, but thought it might be useful to re-post here:
Quote:
I was just talking with my brother about these results, and he had some brilliant insight (one of those “yeah, I should have thought of that” moments). His idea is that some of the bad defenders (say Vlad Rad) show up on this list because opponents “go at” them more, thus resulting in more turnovers, not necessarily because of stellar d, but just because of opportunities to get “owned”. A better metric – rather than per 100 possessions – would be per FGAA (field goal attempts against). Like its counterpart “usage” for offense, “ownage” on defense is something I’ve wanted to calculate for a long time. Soon….
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:23 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Ownage rate? It might be very loveable by mass media Smile
Not sure if it had been mentioned in this topic but another interesting work has been done on defensive metrics is the "block recovery rate".
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bchaikin
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 9:56 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
My PBP code records these as "team turnovers", which I split credit among teammates. With a little bit more effort I could keep track of counterparts for these.
To answer Bob's question, five Bucks appear on the list. Also, maybe this explains some of why Dooling appears near the top of APM.
very cool...
i'm assuming CPTOV is counterpart turnovers. how are you defining the counterpart? just PG guarding PG, SG guarding SG, etc, based on the 10 players in the game? also how are you getting #POSS (are these team possessions), from the play-by-play?...
it would be excellent to see this over the span of an 82 game season. you have any plans on parsing the PBP for all games this season?...
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EvanZ
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 11:16 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
bchaikin wrote:
My PBP code records these as "team turnovers", which I split credit among teammates. With a little bit more effort I could keep track of counterparts for these.
To answer Bob's question, five Bucks appear on the list. Also, maybe this explains some of why Dooling appears near the top of APM.
very cool...
i'm assuming CPTOV is counterpart turnovers. how are you defining the counterpart? just PG guarding PG, SG guarding SG, etc, based on the 10 players in the game? also how are you getting #POSS (are these team possessions), from the play-by-play?...
it would be excellent to see this over the span of an 82 game season. you have any plans on parsing the PBP for all games this season?...
Thanks!
Yes, CPTOV is the total counterpart TOV for this season. I am parsing all the games, as I get them from Aaron. I'm using his matchup files to determine counterparts and possessions, since he's already calculated those. The matchups are available for every possession. Next on my "todo" list is counterpart shot defense.
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EvanZ
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 30, 2011 12:05 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
To finish up the story, I don't think these non-steal turnovers are due to skill (i.e. what we're capturing with the PBP data is probably noise). To clarify, I'm sure that there are non-steal turnovers that are caused by defensive pressure, but I don't think we can capture it with PBP data alone.
http://thecity2.com/2011/01/30/more-on- ... turnovers/
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