2017 Finals Predictions

[shadow]

Not to be a prick or anything, but you don't average moneylines to get the no-vig odds. The link below has a calculator for doing it and explains the math behind it.

http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-t ... alculator/

If the series odds are -2000 / +1000 in favor of GSW, the no-vig odds are -1047.74 / +1047.74, which imply a 91.29% / 8.71% split in favor of GSW.

[jgoldstein34]

Oh cool didn't know that, thanks for letting me know. Not rude at all, thanks! I'll fix my previous posts.

[jgoldstein34]

After game 3:

The equal weights model has Warriors at 99.5 to win with the following distribution:
Warriors in 4 -- 55.7%
Warriors in 5 -- 37.6%
Warriors in 6 -- 3.8%
Warriors in 7 -- 2.4%
Cavaliers in 7 -- 0.5%

The recency model has Warriors at 99.4% to win with the following distribution:
Warriors in 4 -- 53.1%
Warriors in 5 -- 38.4%
Warriors in 6 -- 5.2%
Warriors in 7 -- 2.7%
Cavaliers in 7 -- 0.6%

Vegas has the Warriors at -10000 (99.0%) and the Cavs at +4000 (2.4%). The no-vig odds from Vegas are Warriors winning 97.6% of the time.

It has been a good season.

[jgoldstein34]

After game 4:

The equal weights model has Warriors at 98.5 to win with the following distribution:
Warriors in 5 -- 82.8%
Warriors in 6 -- 9.3%
Warriors in 7 -- 7.0%
Cavaliers in 7 -- 1.5%

The recency model has Warriors at 97.1% to win with the following distribution:
Warriors in 5 -- 75.9%
Warriors in 6 -- 12.3%
Warriors in 7 -- 8.8%
Cavaliers in 7 -- 2.9%

Vegas has the Warriors at -2000 (95.2%) and the Cavs at +1000 (9.1%). The no-vig odds from Vegas are Warriors winning 91.3% of the time.

[shadow]

Here are my win probability breakdowns after game 4 using my ridge regressed team ratings:

Weighted ratings have Warriors at 98.4% to win:
Warriors in 5 -- 78.3%
Warriors in 6 -- 14.2%
Warriors in 7 -- 5.9%
Cavaliers in 7 -- 1.6%

Unweighted ratings have Warriors at 98.5% to win:
Warriors in 5 -- 79.1%
Warriors in 6 -- 13.9%
Warriors in 7 -- 5.5%
Cavaliers in 7 -- 1.5%

Current moneyline at Pinnacle for game 5 has Warriors winning the series tonight 74.91% of the time.

[Mike G]

So, using the weighted probabilities, there's about a (100-78) 22% chance the Cavs win tonight.
And if they do, there's a ((5.9+1.6)/21.7) 35% chance it goes 7 games?
WooHoo!