One thing to account for when weighting draft pick trades is the third pick may be more valuable to a team due to the prior draft picks. For example if you are believe that the number one player in the draft is available at 3 (in Crow's first example Lonzo slipping"Although very unlikely now that russel is gone") and you want to take Lonzo it is almost like you are trading for the 1st Overall Pick.
I know that is not a direct comparison but if come draft time the #1 prospect is available to you at 3 it certainly is not the same as the #3 pick prior to knowing that.