2017-18 team win projection contest

[Crow]

Fresh thread for entrants.

I haven't decided whether to do or not. But time is creeping up so, ta dah, thread.

[eminence]

First year on the forum, but may have to participate. Any general guidelines?

[Crow]

Welcome. I prefer win projections in whole wins but some prefer to use fractions. Do what you want. Make it total 1230 wins. Say as much as you like about method. That is a lot of the value of the exercise. Submit by say the 2nd-3rd day of the season.

There is usually one or more people who track performance. Methods vary.

Compete, boast, cringe. No prizes but glory.

Last season's thread viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9188

[shadow]

I took the current Pinnacle line for each team, converted it to what the line would be if the juice on both sides was equal, and then adjusted each team down by an equal amount so it summed to 1230. For instance, the Boston line is 55.5 with under at -153 and over at +131. That's roughly equivalent to a line of 52.5 if the juice was the same on both sides.

Here are the current projections based on those results:

Code: Select all

ATL	25.79
BOS	52.38
BRK	25.79
CHA	43.91
CHI	22.45
CLE	54.91
DAL	34.76
DEN	44.37
DET	38.33
GSW	67.72
HOU	56.38
IND	31.79
LAC	43.86
LAL	32.61
MEM	38.45
MIA	43.33
MIL	45.29
MIN	47.16
NOP	39.33
NYK	28.29
OKC	55.62
ORL	31.70
PHI	38.09
PHX	27.44
POR	41.97
SAC	27.79
SAS	54.95
TOR	46.92
UTA	38.70
WAS	49.94

[Nate]

The start of a contest (or before) is a good time to talk about scoring. At the end of the last one EvanZ was talking about Huber Loss (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huber_loss).

Something else to consider is whether a scoring method that controlls for player minutes or some other factors could make sense.

[sbs]

Does anyone have any player minutes they'd like to generously share?

[JoshEngleman]

I took the current Pinnacle line for each team, converted it to what the line would be if the juice on both sides was equal, and then adjusted each team down by an equal amount so it summed to 1230. For instance, the Boston line is 55.5 with under at -153 and over at +131. That's roughly equivalent to a line of 52.5 if the juice was the same on both sides.

Here are the current projections based on those results:

I used these win projections and plugged them into the '17-18 schedule, to get an idea of conference strength/true talent. Looks to be ~1.1 wins depending on conference, with the Heat having the biggest boost (+1.7) and the Jazz having the biggest loss (-1.5). I find in interesting that the Nuggets and Raptors have the same true talent estimate. Even more interesting, not that it's a shock, is that the Cavs would be 5th in the West. The is a giant gap between the the Spurs and the Wolves, which would be filled comfortably by the top 3 from the East.

[Kevin Pelton]

Minutes projections:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9ByT ... BHZEU/view

[Crow]

How about a deadline of 5pm Oct. 17. Up to Midnight Oct.19 with excuse. After that... needs a really good excuse.

You can submit and revise the originals til the 17th or submit a revised set in a new post.

Remember to add to 1230 wins or they might get adjusted or just hurt you unadjusted.

If any others want to post minute distributions- before or after deadline- that can be helpful / good for discussion.

[Mike G]

EDITED Oct. 13: After adjusting for rookies, Sixers (with two #1 picks) gain 8 expected wins.
EDIT #2 Oct. 17 after Kevin P updates the player minutes and adjusting for team over/under history (Wins/PythWins)

Code: Select all

West	W		East	W
GSW	71		Cle	55
Hou	65		Tor	47
NOP	48		Was	49
Min	47		Cha	45
OKC	48		Mil	46
Den	47		Mia	43
SAS	47		Bos	44
LAC	43		Det	33
Por	41		Brk	33
Uta	38		Ind	31
Dal	39		Phl	38
Mem	35		Orl	33
Sac	31		NYK	29
Phx	31		Atl	22
LAL	28		Chi	23

West averages 44 wins vs. 38 for East teams. This is after adjusting by roughly 1 win for conference.
I've not looked into recent developments, just going with Kevin Pelton's minutes posted on Oct. 6

[nbacouchside]

Finally got around to this. (Updated)

Code: Select all

TEAM	Wins
GSW	69
CLE	60
HOU	59
OKC	52
LAC	52
SAS	51
TOR	48
WAS	47
MIL	47
MIN	47
DEN	46
NOP	44
CHO	44
BOS	44
MIA	42
UTA	41
POR	41
PHI	33
MEM	33
ORL	33
IND	33
DET	33
DAL	33
NYK	32
SAC	30
BRK	29
ATL	29
CHI	29
PHO	25
LAL	24

[J.E.]

Looks like the biggest difference between Vegas and projections on this board is going to be the Celtics
From a pure plus-minus standpoint, they're now without their 3 best players in ON and ON/OFF rating from last season

Hayward's good in both BoxScore and plus-minus measures, while Irving has good individual numbers but rates far below general opinion in pure lineup metrics like RAPM, never producing good plus-minus numbers when not paired with James

[JoshEngleman]

Here goes nothing. Small adjustment today. Dropped Miami by 1 win, increase Boston by 1 win. Just saw the McGruder news.

Code: Select all

CLE	52
TOR	49
WAS	45
CHA	44
MIA	42
BOS	42
MIL	40
DET	36
PHI	36
NYK	34
IND	33
ORL	33
BRK	30
ATL	28
CHI	26
GSW	65
HOU	57
OKC	53
SAS	51
MIN	51
LAC	49
UTA	45
DEN	44
NOP	43
MEM	38
POR	38
DAL	36
SAC	33
LAL	29
PHX	28

[eminence]

Here we go, first shot at something like this. We'll see how it turns out

Code: Select all

Team	Conference	Win	Lose	Win%
TOR	Eastern	56	26	0.68
CLE	Eastern	54	28	0.66
BOS	Eastern	52	30	0.63
MIL	Eastern	50	32	0.61
WAS	Eastern	47	35	0.57
MIA	Eastern	44	38	0.54
CHA	Eastern	42	40	0.51
DET	Eastern	36	46	0.44
PHI	Eastern	35	47	0.43
IND	Eastern	34	48	0.41
NYK	Eastern	30	52	0.37
ORL	Eastern	28	54	0.34
BRK	Eastern	25	57	0.30
CHI	Eastern	24	58	0.29
ATL	Eastern	22	60	0.27
GSW	Western	70	12	0.85
HOU	Western	58	24	0.71
SAS	Western	56	26	0.68
DEN	Western	52	30	0.63
UTA	Western	50	32	0.61
OKC	Western	49	33	0.60
LAC	Western	47	35	0.57
MIN	Western	44	38	0.54
NOP	Western	40	42	0.49
POR	Western	38	44	0.46
MEM	Western	36	46	0.44
SAC	Western	32	50	0.39
DAL	Western	30	52	0.37
LAL	Western	25	57	0.30
PHO	Western	24	58	0.29

[shadow]

Code: Select all

ATL	27
BOS	52
BRK	26
CHA	43
CHI	25
CLE	54
DAL	32
DEN	45
DET	40
GSW	65
HOU	55
IND	32
LAC	46
LAL	28
MEM	41
MIA	43
MIL	45
MIN	45
NOP	41
NYK	31
OKC	51
ORL	33
PHI	35
PHX	29
POR	44
SAC	29
SAS	57
TOR	48
UTA	40
WAS	48